By Elias Munshya wa Munshya
The forthcoming elections in Zambia have the potential to be the most intriguing elections in many years. Several analysts are predicting that Michael Sata and his PF are very likely to form the next government. This analysis has been buoyed by the pact that the PF has formed with the UPND, Zambia’s third largest party. However, in this article, I wish to show how the MMD will simply triumph in the next year’s elections.
First, the MMD’s win will be buttressed by a global economic recovery, which would also translate into some significant growth for Zambia’s economy. This growth is likely to come as a result of increased revenues from copper exports. It is already being predicted that Zambia’s economic will grow by at least five percent in the coming year. This is likely to work to the MMD’s advantage. Economically, therefore, the climate seems to favor the MMD government.
Secondly, the MMD is likely to win the 2011 elections due to Rupiah’s deliberate and strategic international political alliances. Rupiah’s international travels have in the past few weeks been heavily criticized as excessive and a waste of national resources. In fact, Father Bwalya of the Red Card campaign is reported to have written First Lady Tandiwe to advise her husband against making these trips. Politically, however, Rupiah made some trips that are aimed at bolstering the financial capacity of the MMD. Rupiah’s China visit was not just for government business but also party business as well. It is clear that during this time of elections, China would easily extend some resources to the MMD for its forthcoming campaign. And I am very sure that Rupiah did not just return from China with Chinese assurances of investment in Zambia, but also with some investment in the MMD as a party. China would want to stop Michael Sata at all cost. China quivers at the thought of a President Michael Sata due to his anti-China stance and his partnership with Taiwan. And this is more reason why China would be more than willing to support Rupiah over Sata, and should Rupiah ask for financial help from China for the MMD, that money would surely come in millions.
To further shut Sata’s Taiwanese bond, Banda went to Malawi barely a day after landing in Zambia from China for consultative talks with President wa Mutharika. Those talks should not be taken frivolously. They had a clear political purpose to deliver a message to Malawi (which collaborates with Taiwan over China) and to perhaps ask Malawi not to allow Taiwan to channel financial resources to Sata. I would personally not be too surprised if Malawi switches support from Taiwan to China in the next coming months. And if that ever happened, Rupiah Banda’s trip to Malawi shortly after returning from China will have taken on a new meaning.
Thirdly, the MMD wins by deploying Frederick Chiluba. No leader at the moment attracts sympathy and antipathy like Chiluba. He is both liked and disliked by the people. He is both insulted and consulted by many. However, after having sunk so low in his reputation following his alleged corruption trials, Chiluba’s reputation can only rebound. And as such, by using Chiluba, the MMD is consciously using a controversial figure whose rising popularity may actually help them with some votes.
Additionally, by using Chiluba, the MMD employs a complex strategy. In this option, the opposition will be concentrating on insulting Chiluba and singing songs of how they hate him, while the MMD capitalize on that distraction to campaign and deploy resources to its advantage. The opposition should not forget that Chiluba is not a candidate in the next election. Concentrating on him therefore, plays to the advantage of the MMD. And the MMD is fully using this to its advantage. For example, at Chiluba’s last press conference, he alleged things that put both Sata and Hakainde in a defensive position and they wasted a lot of time and energy trying to answer Chiluba. Unfortunately even the Catholic Church’s senior primate in Zambia got dragged into the muck. Those antics from Chiluba are clearly favoring the MMD and I believe that more are coming in the run up to the 2011 elections. Chiluba will therefore, help the MMD.
Fourthly, the emergence of a third wave political movement within Southern Province will rob the UPND of its popularity and consequently, deprive the UPND of some votes there. This third wave movement in Southern Province is likely to arise out of some Southerners’ dissatisfaction with Hakainde’s decision to enter a pact with the PF. I have doubts, however, whether we will still be talking of the Pact by November 2010. Hakainde knows very well that he risks losing support in Southern Province if he went ahead with the Pact. In fact, when Vice-President Kunda mentioned that some UPND members of parliament were planning to take over the UPND and get rid of Hakainde, he was not speaking from without. There is a real dissatisfaction, with some southerners that the Pact is, actually, a political sell-out to the PF. This dissatisfaction will inevitably lead to the formation of a new political movement within Southern Province which will favor the MMD’s reelection bid. Simple math is that with the current electoral law, the presidential candidate who emerges with more votes than other candidates wins the presidency. And so the more opposition votes are divided and the more opposition candidates we have in an election the easier it becomes for the incumbent to win.
Fifthly, the MMD has the chance to win the next election by deploring the same tactics that have made Sata popular. These tactics include populist language, naughty grandfather image, and grassroots mobilization. Rupiah Banda is already speaking the populist language. And on the Copperbelt, Chiluba is being used by the MMD to meet the people and speak the language they understand. While this move may not be very successful, even a slight triumph, however, helps the MMD garner that extra vote.
The naughty grandfather image has been used by Sata very well. He appears with the call boys and he openly identifies with ordinary problems of the people. And his alleged multiple relationships with women nonetheless, just makes him more enviable by some Zambians unfortunately. In the same vein Rupiah is also presenting the same naughty grandfather image. When in Luapula Province, for example, he told a crowd of pupils about how popular he was among girls when he was a young man—image issues that many young men and women face today. By projecting this image, Rupiah is likely to attract many young people. Nothing galvanizes the young than a grandfather who sits with you and tells you some saucy stories about their past. And this tool is likely to be effective in the next elections.
Additionally, William Banda is at the heart of a grassroots’ resurgence of the MMD in Lusaka Province. This mobilization should not be underestimated. It could prove very potent for the MMD, and by 2011 the opposition should not be surprised if the MMD takes up significant votes in Lusaka.
Sixthly, the MMD could win the 2011 elections, by flipping Father Bwalya’s red card campaign. Father Bwalya has just said that the red card campaign is the campaign for all Zambians since it has been embraced by all Zambians. By this, Father Bwalya may mistakenly think that since the red card is played by Copperbelt and Lusaka based NGOs and PF supporters, the whole Zambia is playing them. But this is not the case, as Sata has experienced in the last three elections, Zambia is more than just Lusaka and Copperbelt. And unless people in Milenge, in Shang’ombo, and in Mambwe play the same red card, it remains an urban phenomena supported by the urban elite living in Chipulukusu, Chiwempala and Chawama.
Through these and many other reasons, the MMD is more than likely to win the 2011 elections. It may just be time for the opposition to begin planning how they can win the 2016 elections. For sure the red card, may actually work then!
Sounds like litmus test, yeah just add base the paper turns to blue
Good Afternoon
OK I’m guilty of reading only the first and last paragraphs and skipping the rest because it happens to be a dry political prognosis. I’m more interested in facts and not prognostics.
Highly unlikely this is going to happen as most commentary on this site is mere hearsay and speculation. Ask me what I think after the election – you could be right or, as I suspect, terribly wrong.
Which fool can vote for thugs (bandas) .poor and mediocre analysis. MMD Red Card!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! MMD is already in the coffin. only waiting for day of burial to be announced in 2011.
“fifthly” … “sixthly” … you expect me to trust a man who doesn’t know his grammar?
I hope this is not fooling day, your analysis sounds genuine.[-(
This “Several analysts are predicting that Michael Sata and his PF are very likely to form the next government. This analysis has been buoyed by the pact that the PF has formed with the UPND, Zambia’s third largest party.” is a dream of tribalists and PF cadres. Should the PACT sponsor Mr PF/MC Sata, I will be the first one to support any candidate that MMD will support as its presidential candiates in the 2011 elections.
As for the rest, MMD will be history like UNIP should the UPND-PF PACT choose president and 2011 presidential candidate HH as its PACT presidential candidate following the intelligence reports I have been receiving at my central command post.
Have a blessed day all.
_
Matt 6:33 But seek ye first the kingdom of God and His righteousness and all these…
sHORT OF RIGGING THE MMD WILL NOT WIN 2011. VJ IS FINISHED ALL THE TRICKS FROM HIS BAG THAT IS WHY MANGANI IS BARKING LIKE A RABID DOG HE IS
Cheap propaganda. Remove this article LT. You are spoiling our long weekend.~X(
I think the author has a valid point and he really desires that the opposition win, I hope the opposition take this serious. MMD need to be replaced, but not with SATA or HH please. Find a neutral candidate. If the status quo continues and they field Sata or HH , am voting MMD. These two have lost before and they way they are running their campaigns clearly show they have not learnt their lessons and our brother Elias is just providing common sense advise and attacking him by PF cadres wont help. Lets address the loopholes people are pointing out. We can’t kick out MMD on the economic front. We have no points there , more so if we feature Sata who has been in Government during Zambia darkest economic days wont help either. Lets find a fresh and new candidate not past sale by date
The only thing that the MMD is counting on is that both Michael Sata and HH will run for the presidency. And if that happens, then they will divide the opposition vote, giving the ruling party a better opportunity of getting in. You see, it will be easier for VJ to do his thing if you have a wider pool of candidates. But if there will be only two candidates, then even VJ will not be able to pull it off for AlaBee.
#11, you are right. If the pact holds together, the MMD stands little chance. That’s why they have intensified efforts to try and divide the opposition.
No 5. Fifthly is an adverb in english and it means “in the fifth place: used to introduce the fifth point in an argument or discussion”
Sixthly though is not a english word – it is as fictitous as his analysis
The PACT is wining with who ever is chosen as a presidential candidate. This article is not fully researched on the topic introduced.
The PACT is winning. The PACT is winning. The PACT is winning.
Forget about the grammer #5 comment on the analysis of the author. This could happen and it has happened before and we shall be crying ‘rigged’. It is about having an effective election strategy that is aimed at a wider population. It is also about having a ‘sole’ leader. Anyway 2011 is around the corner and the truth will emerge. Good luck to all presidential candidates.
Just on “There is a real dissatisfaction, with some southerners that the Pact is, actually, a political sell-out to the PF” while the above may be true to me and other Southerners, the author’s “This dissatisfaction will inevitably lead to the formation of a new political movement within Southern Province which will favor the MMD’s reelection bid” is clearly mis-directed as all Zambians especially clever Southerners know that coming up with a NEW POLITICAL PARTY is a waste of time.
Thus, Southerners will most likely just vote for MMD’s presidential candidate the way the Westerners did it in 2006 and 2008 elections should HH not be 2011 PACT pres. candidate.
Have a blessed day all.
_
Matt 6:33 But seek ye first the kingdom of God and His righteousness and all…
This article has some truth to it………….dont forget not every one backs the pact………….yes.the pact may be loud but from here its all a bunch of hot air……each of u look at the area u live….look at ur mp……..and u will see that nothing has been done and they blame the government………….people dont forget the government includes those mps……and they have all failed us………….
This is so shallow. Typical MMD analysis and resembles a Utopian wish list. It thrives on the assertion that Zambians are fools who cannot see the MMD nonsense. I suggest the writer travels to some rural area in Zambia and come and tell me what RB’s trips and so called investment will / is doing there.
How does a relic come and mobilise grassroots when he, like his mater are out of touch with todays realities? Willaim Banda who? The UNIPist terrorist? FTJ for what??? Influence who??? I cannot continue with this.
Interesting piece of work and interesting point. But my friend Mr Munshya wa Munshya, you have just thrown good food to the P I G s . they will just trumple on it and call you all sorts of names. These PF cadres are addicted to losing and accusing Hon VJ of rigging the election. That is the only dirty food they can eat. WE all know in MMD that the 2011 elections are going to be as easy as the 1996 elections. We are burying PF and it sister pact UPND forever.
Can you image the other day these cadres where suggesting the MMD had bribed The Econimst Group to predict that MMD will win 2011 elections? That is how head in the sand these opposition are. Anyway the slaughter start with the April 29 Bye elections. Prepare to blame Hon VJ for rigging
The Article is almost makes intelligent points, but all six points can be easily broken at the joints. For instance, the analyst has seriously undermined the loyalty of the Southern voite. Southern Province will never vote for MMD.
Interesting piece of work and interesting points. But my friend Mr Munshya , you have just thrown good food to the P I G s . They will just trumple on it and call you all sorts of names. These PF cadres are addicted to losing and accusing Hon VJ of rigging the election. That is the only dirty food they can eat. WE all know in MMD that the 2011 elections are going to be as easy as the 1996 elections. We are burying PF and it sister pact UPND forever.
Can you imagne the other day these cadres where suggesting the MMD had bribed The Econimist Group to predict that MMD will win 2011 elections? That is how head in the sand these oppositions are. Anyway the slaughter start with the April 29 Bye elections. Prepare to blame Hon VJ for rigging
Your points make sense.
But what you have failled to substanciate and give analysis to is the general overview of the electorates themselves in all the Provincial Capitals.Whether RB goes on Foreign trips and the MMD is fully funded
by the Chinese , the Chinese do not speak our language hence do not understand what a common Zambian feels and hates this Government.
But remember that it is the voters , you the analyst inclussive , who understand the problems that this country is facing not the Chinese , MMD &RBB.
#18 Imwe na Imwe, what do you know about rural areas? When did your PF Kaponya ever win an election in rural area. I thin your true north is distorted my brother. The rural area is booming. Agriculture in rural area is thriving, anyone who is a former now in Zambia will tell you that Zambia has never had it this good. You can’r lecture us about rural areas, we have the numbers to proof it. Just focus on your PF Kanponya starving and lazy Kulima Tower boys or is it men who have stayed boys too long?
Interesting article however, its devoid of the prevailing statistics, At the previous bye elections, MMD and PF performance were all pathetic, 17% and 13% respectively, results are there to show at ECZ, however collectively as a Pact, the performance was about 73%. It there4 shows MMD lost ground in Central and Northwestern, where as PF lost ground in Luapula as evidenced in the recent bye election. UPND on the other hand is claimed back its lost glory in Central, N/Western and Western respectively. Well, analyzn the above, like it or not, HH is much stronger on the ground than the yester years. Lets wait and see, Zambians would nt be shocked at the changing political demographics. Howevr, i Conquer without the UPND-PF pact, MMD has more chances of retaining powr. LT,b objctive in analysis
23
MMD Chief Bootlicker ITS U WHO DONT KNOW RURAL AREAS- SATA WON LUAPULA AND BEMBA SPEAKING NOTHERN PROVINCES
Analyst is correct and to the point. HH and Sata will always remain party presidents in perpetuity. HH chased Saki from UPND on account of being non Tonga and therefore Westerners and Nothwesterner counterparts will never give him the vote he craves for. Sata on the other hand has insulted the people of Northwestern , Southern, Western and good parts of Northern province saying that we are behind forever like buttocks. Ask yourselves guys why does Sata always loses in Mbala Mpulingu Isoka Nakonde and other Northmost parts of the province? the guy insulted us and as far as we people in these areas are concerned Sata is not a consultant as he pupported when he was cought with US$27000 in SA, rather is is ann ‘INSULTANT’ forever and will never be forgiven til death do us part. Zambia…
IN 1991 KAUNDA ALSO WAS CHEATED BY PEOPLE LIKE THIS SO CALLED ANALYSIST AND WHAT HAPPENED UNIP LOST TO MMD.ALWAYS REMEMBER HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF MMD IS GOING WHETHER WITHOUT SATA OR NOT IT IS GOING STOP DREAMING PEOPLE.
Though a bit too long, I managed to read thru the authors political opinion “poll”. A few things have come out in his argument.
1. He sound a bit like George Kunda on the pact. This is odd.
2. There must be a term given to his mode of writing but he clearly state his single handedly “opinion poll”
3. The Author is trying to image build the MMD in some way.
4. Though money is a major factor in Zambian politics, Chineese will never determine the out come of the elections unless rigged by ECZ.
5. The Author thinks SATA will lead the Pact otherwise his wish above takes root.
6. Any other Zambian may write about the so called ‘naughty grandfather image’ but attributed to RB.
7. Kafupi’s use in this all thing may never appeal favour in the impoverished masses.
8. People know…
I hate to admit it that the author has hammered a few point home here.
But by far the most plausible one is the one on how long the pact ll survive. From where i stand, both Sata and HH will want to stand as Presient and this ll be the parting point and we ll go back to the usual vote spliting wghich always ends up favouring the MMD.
This looks like and expansion of what was already posted here by the eui something web site only difference is someone decided to add there own point of view…
Munshya wa Munshya,
Good job but please slow down for now.No doubt MMD is coming in style one step at a time.The battle with these extremists is just in phase1. Join the euphoria after transitioning into phase 3 when all will be within firing range and innescably prone for massive collateral damage.Join in the airwar phase yet to ensure.Certainly opinionated PF kaponya will soon realise how vainly they have burned out without any substatial value at hand in goose chase years. In their absent mindedness, they are too lazy to think through issues.
This ***** called Elias Munshya wa Munshya is jst another MMD cadre with bullshit analysis. **** U.
9. Its the Zambian election not Chineese
10. We know numbers are manipulated. They don’t reflect the facts on the ground.
11. Our elections in Zambia are like a referee assisted game.
12. If MMD wins again, they look likely though, its not about whats brought out above rather the same old game. Bring back VJ,Kafupi make them connive with ECZ and the likes. These are the cream of whats goes wrong from setting up elections, customize the procedures and have it exactly your way kind of arrangement. This all mess was instituted by Kafupi and friends since 2001. Zambia has not seen the light of free and fair elections. Free and fair in real sense. I would appeal to the writer thereof to refrain from painting a wrong picture here. Things may not be as he thinks. But prayer should prevail.
Economic growth in whose pockets? Copper prices are not benefitting anyone in this country but these useless investors who are reaping where they did not sow.We are sending mmd to the archieves like it is with RB’s UNIP
They think MMD will ever take this election as if its pitched with its cousins that deserves kids grooves. Tough luck because they have not seen some obliterating optionst yet.Winning Politics is about voter conversion rate and not dead-weight emotional rattles on which the Zambian opposition politics has drifted into. They are amorally bumping from camp to camp of fantasy as if they have to agenda of their own. Smart politicians make hay before the sun shines. They entrench themselves in electoral preparations across the national constituencies for empowering votes. They don’t trap themselves in tirades of editorials fantasy that evolve around insults and sensationalism for economic survival.
Smart politicians who are serious with their political ambitions, form winning political structures on the ground that are value driven. They lock themselves in their value systems and manifesto they were founded on to follow. But see our opposition in entrapped by even Wimps and jerks like Bwalya. They cheaply sign up into all marriages of conveniences they bump into. Instead of differentiating themselves on fundamental issues to the MMD establishment, they have drifted into bitter idealess sore losers.
Happy fools day to you Elias Munshya wa Munshya,,, grow up and reverse these lies you have wasted writing here………….red card to you mune…deuces bane:o
The RC are not votes neither are theysynonymous with the ballot tallies that accumulation in the Electoral Commission of Zambia boxes which every serious politicians bank on to realize real power. For cadres consumed in fantasy and hatred, ask yourself if these wishful dreams you have entrapped yourselves in bring you any value in life on short or long term. I bet you are burning in vanity and on a goose chase to nowhere because what counts is the votes and not screaming editorials and hallucination of religious counterfeit tribal legions champion.
The future of Zambian elections is a mess. Zambia will degenerate into some terrible nation no one would like to live in.The phenomena of tolerance will soon elude and cut across all biasness and bring out the waste Zambia has never witnessed. Reading between the lines, I see hope diminishing at the faces of the folks in villages and urban areas. Workers are laborers/slaves in real sense. A president is busy securing his continued stay in Govt. Half of the story is never being told by this Author, I think.
Any ways consoles yourselves with this quote:
2 Chronicles 7:14
if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then will I hear from heaven and will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
The closest SATA came close to being president was in 2008! this time it will be a white wash! He has confused himself and his followers with his PACT! He has no sound economic policies other than just wanting to get into power!
MMD is not in government to lose. They are there to win. As we speculate, they are planning their strategy and it is not to lose power.
China, USA and Europe are not interested in a two bit dictator called Sata taking over Zambia where they make millions mining copper. If by a stroke of miracle, he does win, they will support a coup plot against his government and re-instate MMD under martial law. The rule is … never touch the white mans investments because he has guns and he can give them to your enemies. Learn from Zimbabwe & West Africa.
Therefore, it is a complete waste of time discussing this issue when there is no one to replace RB, who is supported by East and West.
Maybe in 2016, Narep will sell itself to both Zambia and the Donor nations enough to beat MMD.
I guarantee the zero% doesn’t last long and when it adsujts, it will be a lot higher than what you are investing it in (like 12-20% or more) and you’ll wind up losing money, especially since the credit card interest IS NOT deductible and the investment interest IS Taxable
#21 and 23 Hey Chief where have you been? The Blogg is so boring without the likes of you Veteran and many others of not The PF Scorpions
The most honest observation yet!
#41, you must be a political scholar. The vote is there for the will of the people to be expressed but when that will threatens investment, business will do everything it can to protect its investments. Even in the USA we suffer the same dillemma. When Obama attacks big business, Big Business squeezes him through congress. In Africa, presidents are very very powerfull therefore Big Business targets the leaders enemies and equips them to topple the government by hook or crook.
Financing civil war is always an option when it comes to protecting the billions invested in commercial ventures in the 3rd world.
The only party than can carry on with the current growth rate and sustain development is the MMD under the UNIPist, RBB. All the other political parties are too small or the bigger ones are promising radical change which will impact on the lives of our people.
In 1991, Zambians voted for radical change and many S-corporations were closed because they were inefficient, thus causing widespread job loses that lead to depression, poverty and death. Change in policy should be gradual if it is to help people to adjust. If not, people will perish!
This is why Obama who promised to withdraw troops from Iraq, has not yet done so. He needs people to get used to the idea because they have been exposed to 10 years of war and they are used to it, economically.
Just wondering… how many of us commenting on this blog will actually be voting next year? Or are we simply hoping that somebody else back home will vote the way we see things from a distance?
#41-43
Well said some people never take some of these things into consideration they seem not to know that we do have what we call economic assassins which is usually in the middle of what end up with a regime change ie Iraq went for the last option…
In this instance the government is in favour with the business community if an opposition was to win am sure they will try to accomodate thelseves if that doenst work… then the whiles are set in motion and might end up with another Zim PF kaponyas dont think of these things and i am not even MMD
If I had my way, neither Rupiah (UNIP/MMD/Chiluba dull, sleeping partner) nor Sata (UNIP/MMD primitive/zealot/thug) would be allowed to rule my country. We need clean, untainted blood at the top. How can we forget so easily? For the world, this is the 21st Century; for Zambia, I guess it’s the 13th Century.
i thick the investment for the MMD you talking about in your story is already working,looking at the way MMD is hiring people to bring Sata and HH down.but i can assure you that no matter what the Pact is forming govt came next year.
You dull PF cadres why are u so quick to brush aside credible articles such as the analysis done by Munshya? Thats why you continue to lose elections and you dont ever learn. How can you be lead by an illiterate president like sata? Bushe kusukulu kwalibe mbwa? there is more wisdom in listening than waffling!
This is a well written piece. In order for the opposition to stand a chance, they must remain focused and present a single unified stance based on moving Zambia forward. Mudslinging will not win people’s confidence. We’re lagging behind in as far as agriculture/food security, transportation network, water/sanitation, electricity, even ICT when we shouldn’t be. Smuggler’s Draft supports progress and will support any party that can deliver these basic needs.
One Zambia **==
VERY OPTIMISTIC LUSAKA MMD TIMES
Dream on you fake MMD analyst!
although i do not agree with you totally, you have made a good analysis. one point i totaly agree is that mmd may once again take advantage of the long tasted divide and rule principle. the opposition, just like the rulling party have so much preocupied themeselves with senseless debates instead of discussing real issues; …
Good Evening
Very good contributions from #41 Mwangala aswell as #43 John James & #46 Creative.
It is interesting to observe how world politics are actually intertwined. There is a mighty profit making system that struggles to control African politics based on the dispicable methods of conspiracy, brainwashing and intrigue. Capitalism is another way which is used to influence the working classes since the purchasing power of humans all over the world and their consumptive nature is what upholds industrial productivity. Purchasing power demands productivity and Africa is always ready to provide the natural resources for production. So those in the cockpit of productivity (capitalists) will always ensure that Africa’s leaders are in compliance with their capitalistic programme.
TOO LATE THE HERO, THE RED CARD IS SPREADING LIKE BUSH FIRE IN THE HAMATAN. NO CHEAP INSINUATIONS WILL DETER THE RED CARD COMPAIGN FROM SUCCEEDING. MMD KUYA BEBELE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
One does not need to study politics to see through America’s foreign policy of “use and refuse”. President Obama will have no choice but to continue President Bush’s agenda of controlling world events by remote control. The US troops may pull out of Afghanistan and Iraq but there will still have enough influence to over the political system there.
The same forces that toppled Saddam’s regime under Bush are now practically covering the back of the capitalists under Obama by protecting US Oil interests the Middle East through inforcement of a destructive “divide and rule” policy. Ruthless politics.
HH is the better of the 3, but his aliance with the PF has made him a lame duck candidate. PF and Sata have atteracted all shades of opprotunistic thieve and Drug dealers into their Ranks. I personally know of 2 small time drug dealers wearing PF campain uniforms having being promised jobs in the 5th repablic. One time call boy scuna “Scatee” is one of Satas main men, also being readyed for a major protfolio.
Starting with Sata and the band of thugs he is surrounded with , PF is not ready
A week is a long time in politics! A year is a very very very long time in politics.To say come 2011, this or that party will win elections is not to acknowledge that ‘The Most High rules in the kingdoms of men and He does what soever He pleases with the inhabitants of the earth.’ Many a man has made a plan only to find it frustrated by the hidden hand of God Almighty. Who knows who will be there in November 2011? Oh, that men would come to their senses and wait for HIS will to be done!
Dont be fooled. New York Times, a widely ready paper in USA endorsed Hillary Clinton and gave a similar detailed analysis on how she will triumph over Obama. Countrymen, did it happen the way they predicted? No. Obama won and proceeded to beat John McCain. Many of these analysis are stereotypical and prejudicial without methodological evidence to rely upon. It depends who writes them and which ideology one supports. I can write a detailed analysis to show how Ken Ngondo can win elections of which many of you bloggers will be swayed into praising me. UNIP had all its money in 1991 but failed to win. No wonder in Canada opinion polls are discouraged shortly before elections are held. They are useless and stupid.
will be good to ve a new government…but lets face it, they will also have their weaknesses. will be good for democracy though
We are in Zero Zero situation let us wait and see when all is said and done the Zambian people will speak the in 2011. Let us not fool our selves with nice analysis which only pleases the writer.
We are in Zero Zero situation let us wait and see when all is said and done the Zambian people will speak in 2011. Let us not fool our selves with nice analysis which only pleases the writer.
poor analysis …watch the space..
Very shallow and weak analysis. MMD has been in power for close to 20 years and the writter should have outlined in simple terms what unique developments that the country has undertaken across the country. What road infrastructure has MMD developed compared to what UNIP did? Number of schools, training centers, universities compared to UNIP? Hospitals compared to UNIP? Rural and urban industrial development compared to UNIP? Employment levels compared to UNIP (right now we hear that Zambia has 80% unemployment levels)? Performance of public service compared to UNIP? Agriculture sector compared to UNIP?
If Munshya Wa Munshya was smart he should be helping his party MMD to outline what the MMD has achieved in the areas i have highlighted above compared to UNIP. Truth is MMD has done little.
Chief Bootlicker says the slaughter starts with the April 29 by-elections!!!This same Bootlicker claimed the MMD will bang Solwezi or he cant remember saying that.
any one who can support mmd must either have a govt job or courting one.i can excuse the rural folks for there life is about little expectations.to seat and suggest that mmd will win by the observations made by the writer is simply zambian.today we emphasise a govt of the people by the people and yet this guys goes and writes about factors that have little or nothing to do with the voters but make democracy personal by naming chiluba ,rb,and malawi including china to create favourable influence towards mmd in coming elections.shame my friend.u take away the ability of the people to decide there destiny.u stupify democracy and fail to understand the panic mmd is .
I think the writer has a fair argument and analysis of the situation, I agree with him on the economy. it is a major factor because it affects us all. If we had a new government elected in 2011, I’m sure our economy would be affected especially with our close relationship with the Chinese and the West, the people at the bottom will feel its effects mostly. If you look at any democratic country the public seem to have confidence in the government in power during an economic crisis, The conservatives in the late 80’s, republicans during the wall street crash. We are not seeing the fruits of our labor at the base of our society but it is fact the zambian economy has recovered well and the government has led us well through the recession. Rural people have no idea what the recession is and…
This guy ELius has just been sponsored by RB to write such rubish.Does he know that the lambas wont vote for RB? 70% of people in central province are no longer supporting RB because of his alliance with Kafupi and so is the situation in Western and N.Western provinces .Luapula MMD will get more votes than last time.Southern province and Eastern provinces have not changed,Northern province is now more PF than in 2006.Lusaka and CB ubarn are 80% PF. Southern province is still for UPND. Only fools will be cheated by Elias Munshya. As for now the sitiution is that RB is not popular and will loose the elections.
this is were votes will be up for grabs. As petty as our politics are, we all know economic policies dominate every part of society even with the lack of transparency and rampant corruption,it is fact our reserves are at their highest ever. I think all our politicians are embarrassing including the president because of the low standard of political debate we’ve allowed them to engage in, the real issues are not debated in concise manner and majority of people don’t have access to political debate (internet,radio or TV) and education to understand the real issues. Our Nominal and Purchasing Power Parity have both increased.
Brother Munshya wa Munshya, Thank you for your shortsightedness. The truth of the matter is Many Zambians have changed their minds and they don’t want MMD party anymore. If people change their mind, no matter what good you can do to them they cannot reverse. What you are talking about cannot change the mind of my grandmother and father in Eastern province. Think about what happened when UNIP lost to MMD UNIP was such a powerful party and nobody ever thought UNIP and KK could loose to MMD?. No matter what man can do to retain the position, if the hour has come and the handwritting on the wall says your kingdom is taken by other people it is sha wasting of time and resoucers. If MMD can perform and deliver to the people that is all people need and not the reverse.
MMD have never won Elections since 2006. They have just been stealing and the premise they are popular in the rural areas. They COOK UP printed ballot papers which are stuffed in the boxes after people have voted. The key is for each and every person on this blog to sensitise those that you can to sacrifice for this one day. Please remain at the polling station after voting. Even if it will mean being there without food, just do it, as what happens on this day will shape the destiny of this country for the next 5 years
Let us sensitize our brothers and sisters both in the urban and rural areas to prepare themselves to protect there votes next year. Please do not leave the poling station after voting, remain there up and until all the counting has been done and results publised at the poling station itself. If need be let us all help in monitoring what happens after the polls closes from which ever place you’re. God bless you and may he continue blessing this motherland.
Kuzankala ma Blood Pressure next year. Zambians will surely be able to tell whether the pact is sustainable or not; when its head clearly shows. Tekanyeni bana bahesu, mwaka uboola mulatambulwa amanja obilo mu old horse (MMD) once the pact proves to be a donkey rather than horse. As for red card business, Is it not one of the political hooliganism vs opportunistic lumpenism style. For sure displeasure is expressed using a voter’s card not a colour paper.
Quoting our late LPM: The opposition(UPND) are like buttocks,they cant find themselves in front,they will always be behind.This article is a bitter pill to swallow for the PACT and unfortunately its a harsh reality for them.
What a boring and nonsensical article.This analysis is so absurd and the author is so …….no,ah,musanichimwise ka! Check this outu!! :d
There are only two ways MMD is going to win, Rigging as usual or a split in the PACT. Its simple even though I will gain financially if MMD stays in power… i just think we need new blood. Grand fathers tell stories & are retired (State House if not a Care-home for the elderly )… we need change new fresh blood. If MMD wins 2011 the only formula that will change the government 2016 is the same formula that Chiluba used on UNIP.
Look at what our friends in Kenya are doing. This is what we should be doing in Zambia learn from our friends. Story is on BBC.
The Kenyan parliament has approved a draft constitution, after nearly 20 years of acrimonious debate.
The new constitution goes to the Kenyan people in a national referendum later this year. The document provides for greater checks on presidential powers and more regional devolution.
As part of a power-sharing deal to end deadly riots following elections in December 2007, it was agreed that a new constitution would be written. The previous constitution was criticised for concentrating too much power in the hands of the president.
The draft constitution also recommends:
• power be devolved to a senate and a network of local counties
• the president should no longer be able to appoint judges
• MPs appointed to a cabinet position should be obliged to give up their parliamentary seat
President Mwai Kibaki told Bloomberg news agency: “We have gone through a very difficult time and I’m quite sure myself this is the greatest step we have taken so far.”
His power-sharing partner, Prime Minister Raila Odinga, said it was a “historic moment”.
An earlier attempt to amend the constitution failed five years ago.
Calls for a new constitution began during the time of President Daniel arap Moi, who stepped down in 2002 after 24 years in power.
Many felt the presidency was too powerful as during…
If the ballot doesn’t work, we’ll try the bullet! Let’s put in fresh blood to lead us with new ideas! Twanaka nenwe bakelenka nga mwapakama mulatulaba!
hh, sata, rb, upnd, mmd, fdd, and others have big supporters, international donors and business people even entire governments…why for all this time they did not ask for development….they just want the power, the control and then what??? why didnt sata ask his taiwanese counterparts to bring us development that just putting oney in his pocket? why are we just having influx of chinese instead rb asking for develpment without strings from the chinese?? fdd dont just blab blab so you get the donor money, father bwalya now is also a party, let your donors build a bridge, rehabilitate a road, open a factory, employ 300 people…these small small things can make big difference, if you want support just open a plant for hiace bus spareparts so they are cheapened…people are employed
Red litmus card is turning Blue.
If PF is going to win this election, i believe in Tanzania CHADEMA will win in 2015 against CCM,
YES RED CARD IS TURNING TO BLUE, GGUUUUUD.
Well that makes a heck of a lot more sense than recovering from anemsia. I had initially figured that Meela was originally Yuen, but had suffered anemsia and been adopted by Tannor. But there were some pretty heavy flaws in that to begin with Namely flashback-Meela being pretty clearly younger than Yuen.