A local economist has observed that the Zambian economy will not recover quickly from the prevailing global economic meltdown because of the unstable and lower price of copper on international market.
Mr. Chibamba Kanyama said unless Zambia focuses on its internally generated recovery efforts such as local manufacturers, which can exploit the current Kwacha depreciation to compete against foreign imports.
Mr. Kanyama, who is also Zambian Breweries Corporate Affairs Director, told ZANIS in Lusaka today Zambian Breweries is one such company that has targeted the regional market, whose demand is still reasonably high.
He said the other avenues that could help the Zambian economy to recover would be depending on the performance of the motor industry that considerably consumes copper products, which is one of the major earners of foreign money for Zambia.
He predicted that the Zambian economy will recover after government has worked on its own economy with targets that are identified through increased investments which could attract Zambian consumers.
Mr. Kanyama however said companies such as general motors are under-going intensive restructuring programmes owing to challenges of bankruptcy.
He further explained that economic recovery may not be done in one year because the price of copper on the global market is still dampened by speculators believed to be from china.
He said the recovery of the Zambian economy cannot be compared to developed nations because the appearance of marginal economic recovery in countries such as the United States was only a signal that the current global recession will be contained in the near future.
Mr. Kanyama however said the reverse of a turn around takes several years to positively affect poor economies.
He pointed out that the seemingly glimmer of hope of recovery in the US is too minimal to translate into global economic recovery, adding that this is only seen in some price rises for certain stocks.
ZANIS/VP/KSH/ENDS
Ba political economist..let me read
UN chief Ban Ki-moon warned that failing to act to halt the global economic crisis could lead to widespread social unrest and failed states, What began as a financial crisis has become a global economic crisis,” the UN secretary general wrote in an article in the Guardian newspaper.”I fear worse to come — a full-blown political crisis defined by growing social unrest, weakened governments and angry publics who have lost all faith in their leaders and their own future.” He said the global economic downturn affected the poorest countries the most, and noted that in these countries “things fall apart alarmingly fast”.
“Unless we build a worldwide recovery we face a looming catastrophe in human development,” Ban wrote.
This is because they rely too much on copper… There is a need to diversify and find something else because copper wont be there for ever. There is also a need to take away this crazy advertising to foreign investors that if you invest in Zambia its tax free for 4 years. All I see with this is making Zambia a market heaven for companies looking for a short term profit. When most Companies come in for four years they would make a lot of money and for some companies they would just be in Zambia for three years and leave after they have also made a lot of money (just using our country men and woman) ..anyway that’s my view
He’s stating the obvious….NEXT STORY!!
Halo chibamba,regards from pondo land.we’ll talk later.
Very good observation Mr. Kanyama. All his points are the painful tuth that we have to face – we are not even at the end of the beginning of this crisis.
This Global crisis is great blessing in disguid for Zambia.
There is no way Zambians should spend time complaining about the crisis instead of “celebrating the opportunity”.
This is a great opportunity for Zambia to realise its great potential; there has been too much sitting on the confort zone of copper when crops grow even on their own along roadsides without anyone to tender them yet they bear fruit as though to laugh at us.
Every part of our nation is firtile almost for any crop. Most parts of our nation are rich for raising all types of livestock, yet we cry about copper prices.
We have a vast range of rich minerals other than copper, a large variety of wood resources for timber, great water resources and diverse talent of artistis; singers, commedians, fines artists, etc.
ba bambo muma kamba vokosa ,but somehow the sms is head.bloggers from the economic field,put this man’s points in plain terms.
very good observation Mr Kanyama
yezyani what he means is that neither the price of copper nor the holy investors nor the holy hordes of tourists are going to fix things- we have problems
good obervation sir, i will appoint you as economic advisor when i become president
KATELE KALUMBA has been found with a case to answer and put on his defense by magistrate Edward musona.then Bashikulu ba former MINISTER of DEFENCE under chiluba and PF cadre Ba CHITALU SAMPA has passed away.MHSRIP
Great analysis, not sure if i have heard anything new.
If we were not doing that good when prices were abnormally high how can we recover when the prices are low? Think, the issue is not the price of copper but the useless policies which allow the mining houses to have off-shore accounts. Every single cent earned from our copper is banked in foreign lands, and here I am not even talking profits, just proceeds of sale. How ca an economy grow when investors (so called) can take away the turn over and only remit cash needed for operations, as if the minerals are in their countries. It’s policies like these that will forever keep us poor and our economy so small that we can only rank #4000 plus on the forbes rich list (behind even Oprah)….what a country!
Good analysis Bwana Kanyama. However, I wish to state that the normal price of copper is not supposed to be above $3000 per tonne. The price boom experience in the past five years should not be taken as the norm. This means that even the current price right now is very high. The only problem is the fall in the grade of the ore coupled with much deeper mining operations in our old mines. If the normal price of copper had always been as high as we have seen in the last five years, Zambia should have been a very rich country by now.
Good analysis Bwana Kanyama. The copper price boom experience in the past five years should not be taken as the norm. Mining companies know that the normal price of copper should be below $3000 per tonne. The only problem is the fall in the grade of the ore coupled with much deeper mining operations in our old mines. If the price of copper had always been as high as we have seen in the last five years, Zambia’s economy should have improved. The solution lies in exploring for new deposits which should be cheaper to mine and process.
Will Zambia ever recover from what ??? We have never had a sound economy. Please let us think of agriculture and cage all the plunderers.
Sparks Chimbwendembwende you have said the truth. We have never had a sound economy.
He is predicting what is already in public domain. Chibamba has got monopoly of economic wisdom in Zambia
We should prosecute such analysis!! It is quite obvious please tell us something we do not know. Too boring and it pains me to know that you are paid to utter such fimo fimo.
It is true that we need to diversify from copper. However, you also need money in order to diversify. If the terms in which the copper mines were sold were not so bad then we could have earned more money which could have been used to build infrastructure for the diversification required. Our economy and that of nearly all African are weak and small and there is not much we can do unfortunately as single entities. That is why some analysts are advocating for a USA – United States of Africa. With our weak economy and small population we are really at the mercy of the super powers.
” If the price of copper had always been as high as we have seen in the last five years, Zambia’s economy should have improved. The solution lies in exploring for new deposits which should be cheaper to mine and process. ”
How would Zambia’s economy have improved irregardless of what the price of copper is, or how much is mined, when the mines are in foreign hands, and beause of the corrupt Development Agreements, they share no profits and pay no taxes?
Thank God am British now! I ran away from all this rubbish in Zambia.People are born and they die in Zambia without seeing any progress.
Ghanaians living abroad send back home more than $3 billion/year.If you can get out and save yourselves from the misery.Zambia is owned by foreigners,and by foreigners I don’t mean fellow Africans.
Chibamba,i thought since December copper has risen 50%…….is that slow rise in the price.The global perception is that,it is a good rise for copper,even Anglo has commented to say the price is good.
My suggestion is for our country to look for other avenues of earning revenue, apart from collecting taxes of course. What manufacturing Industries do we have in Zambia? Must be very few if there is any left. Everyone believes in makwebo. Depending on Copper alone is a big gamble i thought we could have learnt this by now. Let people start enterprising, instead of letting the government to be a solution; realise that the government is the problem people, wake up. Also encourage Zambians abroad to start investing in their own country. Bring a spirit of Enterprenuership in Zambia. By the way, i still can not believe that we are a nation without a national Airline!! That sucks..
bkCtCD