Patriotic Front president Michael Sata is the most preferred candidate ahead of this year’s polls according to the opinion poll conducted by the Center for Policy Dialogue.

CPD executive director Neo Simutanyi announced in Lusaka this morning that if elections were held today, PF president Michael Sata would get overall 31 percent of the votes, closely followed by MMD’s Rupiah Banda with 28 percent, with Hakainde Hichilema getting 12 percent.

Dr. Simutanyi further stated that in terms of voter preference of a political party, the Patriotic Front is likely to obtain the largest number of votes if elections were held today, with 29 percent of voters favoring the largest opposition political party.

He adds that the MMD would get 27 percent with the United Party for National Development getting 10 percent of vote preference.

Dr Simutanyi says his organization conducted a public opinion with a national representative sample of 1,200 registered Zambian voters.

He says the poll was conducted from 14th to the 24th of April 2011 and it covered all the nine provinces of the country and 19 districts.

He observed that a closer examination of electoral preferences suggests that there has been little shift from the 2006 and 2008 scenarios.

Dr. Simutanyi stated that the PF and Michael Sata still command support in their traditional areas of Lusaka, Copperbelt, Luapula and Northern Provinces.

He further observed that the support of all major parties declined significantly from 2008 elections in the areas they claim to have support.

The opinion poll further reveals that 47 percent of Zambians consider overall government performance so far as poor or very poor.

He says 43 percent of the respondents reported that they do not approve the performance of president Rupiah Banda.

QFM

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184 COMMENTS

    • My man worry not its just an opinion poll. It does not change anything. The sample also is way below to determine the perception of the registered voters. PF Can even get over 50% on a sample of 5,000….. figures figures…

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  1. Time for one bafffoon in state house to get his act together. Though the sample space is small.

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  2. i bet because it says PF would win people on this forum will agree with this poll. The other election when neo simutanyi conducted a poll and predicted an MMD win he was castigated and crucified. 

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  3. That’s what you said last time. Are you not the one who said whoever wins the 2008 presidential elections should sort out the Post? And what do you do when there are no presidential elections?

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  4. elyo lwanya, a snake in state house! Zambia elyo yapwa nomba. Zambia will be a laughing stock for having a sata in state house. I can asure you he will be the most useless president in the whole world, be warned!

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  5. Cifire and the bootlickers have apparently been giving the old man some false hope. The situation on the ground tells quite a different story. One wonders where his advisors are. But this will of course be refuted by the leadership, wait and see.

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  6. As a democracy in Zambia we appreciate the opinions of researchers and instead advise political actors to cultivate momentum from any report. In the same vein we urge political actors to accept the ballot verdict without veinly resorting to helpless accusations that elections have been lost because of some underhand methods. I know this is not the case with PF Kaponyas who almost lynched Neo to death for his usual narrow based research opinion. Neo is free to continue doing what he knows better in predictive statistics. I will even send him SPSS software to help him in this year’s election race. his opinios are respected.

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  7. Am almost losing my breath , with my eyes full of tears from laughter. Please spare my ribs.

    Again, how many registered voters are there in this year’s election? Did I hear the number is in in millions? And how many people did sample did this opinion poll represent? This is so hilarious!!

    Anyway, nothing new here. We are used to these useless polls year in year out. The time web masters learnt how to put opinions polls on the Internet, the MMD has never won a single opinion poll on the Internet. We have always been last. What is the lesson? Simple..if you are a betting man, do the opposite of what these cheap opinion polls suggest and you will be in the winners circle come end of 2011.

    This is what we call BA DR BA MA BWEDE BWEDE. Expert more useless polls like this online

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  8. Sata is a frail, old man who’s waited a long time for this. RB is is an old clown though a bit healthier than Sata. It’s up to the populace to chose the candidate of their choice. Should I even waste my vote in this election?
    The current leadership is a bunch of Bozo’s and the opposition in waiting is waste bin of recycled crooks and political whorres

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  9. Yes he will WIN unless he get robbed @ gun point by RB & his beat up MMD. Sata he’s even more popular in foreign Nations and Zambians in abroad, if given chance and freedom to voters in diaspora SATA will clean house and send RB packing to the village. ALL ZAMBIANS VOTE FOR PF AND FOR IT’S HARDING WORKING LEADER MR. M. SATA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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    • How and when did Sata become popular abroad? Why don’t you talk about how democratic Sata isin PF? Sata is UNIP, MMD and now PF – A truly Recycled politician. Very undemocratic in every way – can you argue?

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  10. #13. You are the most illetarte person I have ever seen. You should go back to sch and do statitics. If you live by MMD handouts, your days are numbered.

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  11. No comments on this otherwise i end up like PF thugs. Like MMD and SC have nailed it all i end there too. I have voters registers with bonafide voters around the country and find Dr. Simutanyi’s research undertaking as deserving funding its lacks to make real national wide research other than his currently narrow random sampling of 600 people out of 5K plus registered voters spread all over the country. He needs mobility and logistics to canvass the the country for representative results from his esearch works.

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  12. Sata fumes over poor UK meeting attendance

    PATRIOTIC Front (PF) leader Michael Sata has condemned the organisers of his meeting with Zambian residents in London when it was clear that only few people would turn up for his address.

    The PF leader, who is in London, was expecting to address a huge crowd but was disappointed that only a handful of people attended his meeting.

    The meeting almost flopped following the decision by many Zambians to shun the gathering at Oxford University, forcing Mr Sata to sound verbal attacks against the organisers.

    The meeting was attended by former Kafue member of Parliament Bob Sichinga and former Southern African Development Community Parliamentary Forum secretary general, Kasuka Mutukwa.

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  13. The source said Mr Sata was also planning to meet Zambian residents in Manchester and London on unspecified dates and unknown agenda.

    “It appears Mr Sata also wants to be exposed to possible sponsors and partners in the UK as Zambia draws closer to the general elections.

    “Mr Sata is also expected to meet Zambian communities in Manchester and London on unspecified dates,” said one source who attended the meeting at Oxford.

    The seminar was about populism and opposition politics in Africa and was called by the department of politics and international relations at Oxford University.

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  14. Sound like true. the painting is clear and the writting is on the wall, time up ba MMD. This learned man did conduct the similar opinion poll in 2008 is it 2006 and the results where in favor of the MMD an it was true. soooooooo!

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  15. The above opinion is substandard, Sata with 31% , Rupia 28% and HH 12% from the 1200 electrolates does not represent informed poll rating. Neo in future, try to tell us not just the figures but also the education background of the individual electrolates, their occupations and Age. Immaturity and irriterate affect the voting too. Accademicians, those that are informed Sata is far from being the favourite. Hence your opinion is misleading to the nation. Sata is favourite among Kaponyas and bus operators whose education background is very low, have no ability to chose between good and bad

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    • #24 walasa walikwata amano only kaponyas will vote for the snake and within 90 days it will start biting them

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  16. #21 and #22. That is not important. Even if only one person attended, we still like Sata and we shall vote for him.

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  17. Ba Senior Citizen,

    I am surprised for once you have commented objectively.Its good you have respected Docs opinion,Keep it up.

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  18. Hahahahaha i see the Dr wants some reconciliation with the Homo PF magazine.Where is other 29%.PF is not popular in the ballot box.

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  19. As the poll nears it is inceasingly become clear whom NYAMA SOYA is? Too many blunders in a short span of time, the ZAMTEL saga, the arms saga, too much nepotistic tendencies!(cant work with certain people,wako ni wako, he/she supported magande!) unprecendented lies and innuendoes(unprecencendented developments-where), unsympathetic killings and detaintion of innocent lives, coupled with the Daily Mail, Times of Zambia, Chanda Chimba III, you see such hatred for one man has the power to twist the balance of fate in his favour. All this time the chi man is pre-occuppied with compaigns and globe trotting. Wanya, theres riots/war in the middle east and they might mistaken you for Bin ladens successor!

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  20. # 13 YOU NEED JESUS AND PRAYERS. I GUESS U HAVE UNFINISHED BUSINESS WITH EXAMINATION COUNCIL OF ZAMBIA. EVERY RESEARCH HAS A SAMPLE SIZE ON WHICH OPINIONS ARE BASED. GO BACK 2 SCHOOL.

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  21. Neo is using logic, no research was carried out.Its every where for every man and woman in zambia to see.I mean who does not know that Sata is winning this years elections?only pipo like William “Tyson Wandeyo” Banda, Rooney are still in the dark. MMD Kuya bebele uno mwaka……….Dontchi Kubebe…..VIVA PF! VIVA MCS! VIVA 2011

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  22. Credible prediction –not from the useless simutanyi
    PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS PARTY AND PROVINCE
    MMD Eastern 79 % Northern 48% Luapula 45% Central 38% CB 28 %N/W 15 % Western 18 % Lusaka 26% Southern 12% =34%
    PF Eastern 10 %Northern 46 % Luapula 45% Central 18 % CB 50% N/W 3 %Western 2% Lusaka 44% southern 4% =23%
    UPND Eastern 12% Northern 4% Luapula 4% Central 39 % CB 24% N/W 60% Western 48% Lusaka 40% Southern 86% =35%
    Other =12%

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  23. Wait a minute..is it not the same guy who predicted that Lupiya will win the elections during the last presidential elections ? If he is, then i have no doubt it is true coz he was right last time.Good luck Sata

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  24. I have a lot or respect for Dr Neo Simutanyi. Apart from having being an excellent lecuturer of mine at “Yunza” some 23 years ago, his analysis is statistically correct, for anyone who understands “forecasting”.

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  25. Senior Citizen and MMD Chief Bootlicker ARE YOU SURE YOU WANT TO KNOW THE NUMBERS WHEN WE INCRESE THE SAMPLE SPACE? THOSE TEARS OF LAUGHTER WILL TURN INTO BLOOD BECAUSE THE REALITY ON THE GROUND IS THAT WE ARE FED UP OF THIS GOVT! IF 5 OUT OF 7 WANT MCS, HOW MANY WILL WANT HIM OUT OF 200? SIMPLE MATHEMATICS MWEMBWAMWE!

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  26. I am very certain that the results by this researcher are very correct, infact, the results have underrated the popularity of SATA. He is winning this year unless the MMD does the usual giminastics of rigging

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  27. Sata gives MMD sleepless nights, RB sees sata as a big obstacle in politics. His tactics to destroy Sata with the use of Lifwekelo and others seems to lose direction because his programmes have been proved nothing but hatred against the old man. No one tends to listen to this boring programme because people are tired with the crap. RB must just win on merit if possible.

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  28. By the time of elections, HH’s 12% will have dwindled. The question is to which camp will they switch? So those in the habit of barking meaningless slogans, hold your fire.

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  29. #28 & #35. Well said. This chap #13 has never been to sch and he lives by handouts from this baffoon at state house

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  30. Too many blunders- NCC & the failed constitution. Dubius road contracts awards to Chinese in Sesheke and mfuwe, Indians(Sable) in Eastern Province, dubius Philips-Hospital contracts and the innuendoes(he was consultant at Phillips-paid). Lets send this grumpy old man packing to his unelectrified farm in chipata, so that he can be watching football from Chipata Motel! And that good for nothing village primary sch teacher who continues to draw a govt. salary, despite not rubbing her hands in chalk, and gives hand outs to womens clubs! You will regret all these things in your future!

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  31. “43 percent of the respondents reported that they do not approve the performance of president Rupiah Banda.”
    Kind of saying that the cup is a quarter empty!
    57% approval rating is very high in modern democratic politics.

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    • What a statistician! if 43 % do not approve, does it mean that automatically the remaining 57% approve? What about those who did not respond? those who did not know? and other categories of answers

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  32. Ni Donchi kubeba kuti batwibila.. So next time u conduct an opinion poll nishiiiiiiiIiiiiiiiiii Bwato chabe al the way

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  33. # 26,

    I respect his right of speech and publicly deseminated opinions. There is always a dignifying way of shredding flawed and sublevel academic work that lack credibility by every measure.I’m sure you and i know better that in all his surveys, our brother and fellow scholar’s surveys in the past has never been proved dead wrong with wider variance. We cannot even draw to the point of debating standard deviations. This is largely due to his academic narrow base approach in research. I pledge to send him leading worldwide Predictive Analytics software from SPSS Inc. to analyze, model, and score demographic and behavioral data, along with attitudes and opinions, to find voters most likely to support a candidate or to reach the undecided swing vote accurately.

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  34. Dr. Simutanyi’s findings are interesting considering that he had also predicted RB’s election to state house in 2008. Sample size is too small but the outcome appears to be credible. Interesting indeed.

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  35. # 26, CORRECTED

    I respect his right of speech and publicly deseminated opinions. There is always a dignifying way of shredding flawed and sublevel academic work that lack credibility by every measure.I’m sure you and i know better that in all his surveys, our brother and fellow scholar’s surveys in the past have always been proved dead wrong with wider variances. We cannot even draw to the point of debating his standard deviations. This is largely due to his academic narrow base approach in research. I pledge to send him leading worldwide Predictive Analytics software from SPSS Inc. to analyze, model, and score demographic and behavioral data, along with attitudes and opinions, to find voters most likely to support a candidate or to reach the undecided swing vote accurately.

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  36. # 26,

    I’m sure you and i know better that in all his surveys, our brother and fellow scholar’s surveys in the past have always been proved dead wrong with wider variances.

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  37. And please your so called NGO’s – self styled one man tuntemba’s-lifwekelo, chifire,… the works!, using old UNIPIST Vigilante style of compaigns(intimidation and violence), in this day and age!~ Abuse of markets and bus stops! insults! Arrogance! This is the 21st century man, wake up, havent you heard of the info age! Oh please, and the grumpy old man William Banda, and your round of “preferred” provincial chairmen- you just got it all wrong! Grow up, old man!

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  38. Senior Citizen and MMD Chief Bootlicker you are jokers! When your cadre (Neo) said then that current polls, favoured MMD, you were busy ululating! Today you are vuvuzezaling! You are both hypocrites! You should have seen your next president at Oxford University! There is word that RB will never go to UK for one old story there…….

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  39. @31.Bob.Like the detail in your predictions.But where is the evidence and logic to back them?How do you put the mmd and pf sharing virtually in half northern and luapula?how did the mmd gain so much.and their share of copperbelt.aint that too much?While I accept that HH is probably goin to make an improvement on his 18% showing of 2008,I dont think it will be at PF’s expense.Logic tells me that most of the gains if any by HH will be at RB’s cost.eg western and nortwesternand central I suppose.though expect Sata to put in a strong showing in the urban centres.I ran a prediction that was close to Dr Neo’s.

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  40. This is a ploy by Neo. those of you that are clever will see this. I am a PF supporter but I think Neo is up to something. I wouldn’t be surprised if he released another poll suggesting that MMD will win. 

    MY Opinion 

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  41. OPINION POLL ON THIS BLOG INDICATES THT 68.2% ARE IN FAVOUR OF PF,OFFCOURSE BASED ON THE COMMENTS MADE

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  42. #13, our Phd student’s research work has revealed that RB is going to win this year’s election because he has a commanding lead among rural voters in many provinces with the exception of LP. In many provinces, the rural voters do not even know who MS is. But they know who RB is. MS used to be very popular in Lusaka and the Copperbelt, but his pro gay stance has already robbed him votes from true blue Christians. Mark my words. Come post election day, the excited PF supporters will be saying that MS lost because the election had been rigged. 

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  43. Let’s see the Times of Zambia, Daily Mail and ZNBC make this az their headline in their nekst editionz. Am sure we will get a condemnation and rebuff of this Neo Simutanyi story by Chief Government Spokesperson Lt. Gen. Ronnie Shikapwasha, followed by another from Dora Siliya and then Siulapwa of NGP. Just mark my wordz.

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  44. Whether it will be the MMD or PF who will win with a 31 or 32% – Zambia should be SAD and WORRIED – because this means 70% (THE MAJORITY) of the eligible people to vote will have rejected that party. How can someone be proud to be elected by a MINORITY? That is why we have MINORITY TIRANNY in Zambia! It is a DICTATORSHIP of the minority…! We must change our electral system and allow majoritarian rule – a president must be voted in by over 50% of the legally registered voters.

    Zambia deserves salvation from the MMD who have failed to provide a proper democratic landscape to enable professional and people centred decision making.

    VOTE THE MMD OUT OF POWER THIS YEAR!!!

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  45. No. 31you can only have 100% for your CB estimates the total addition is 103% go back to school

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  46. This has obviously excited all PF supporters. Keep dreaming and you will lose it again. Why you dont learn is what puzzles me. Please go and campaign in villages. Remember that you will never get 100% even in urban areas you think you are popular because some of us are reserved when it comes to supporting the caliber of leaders like Sata.

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  47. NEO IS A DOCTOR, PHD HOLDER. The sample used is big enough to predict the people’s opinion.The fact that the sample was taken from all provinces and all constuencies, the data is very reliable.
    Time has come for MMD to pack and let others govern.
    ONLY THOSE WHO ARE ACADEMICALLY BLIND WILL REFUTE THESE RESULTS.If the sample was more SATA’S percentage would have EVEN gone above 50%.

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  48. Dr. Simutanyi’s surveys are always unreliable. Amazingly the man selects samples as iff he has never done research before.

    If I was Dr Simutanyi, and I was told to assess the voter strength for each party, I would not go to Southern Province because I know what the study would show, HH, i would also not carryout the data collection in Lusaka or CB because SATA would show positive.

    This is how a research is done:
    1) get an unbiased sample by sampling each segment of the population especially when you know distribution of public opinion is uneven across the geographical population distribution.
    2)take note of the population ratios (of voters) in each of the population segments.
    3) work out your analysis, factoring in your ratios. You will get a likely outcome.

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  49. We are pyaing hard and God will surely not allow a surpent -homo in state house! The false prophets like the Post and simutnayi will be ashamed once more!

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  50. #31 Bob, don’t come with simplistic percentages here pretending to be smart!! Population of registered voters is not a constant for each province so your simple addition and division (average percent) is not plausible. Kabepeko ba yama bobe ku mushi.

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  51. you are cheating yourselves. Bembas be informed that your chief Kaponya will never be a president. no sane person can vote for 80….something year clueless as his president. HH will surprise you. watch his pace….

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  52. all you PF kaponya’s are so dull not to see the contradictions in this analysis. Look is you add 28 to HHs 12 that gives you 40%!! So this analysis has been done to strengthen the argument for HH to work with MMD and that way they will beat PF who have a minority vote of just 31%. Any sensible person can see that PF has actually lost a lot of votes compared to 2006 and they are still stuck in their northern stronghold which flys in the face of the lies being perpatrated by the Post. So when Neo come after June closer to election and tells you RB is now in the lead what will you kaponya’s do then? You are all so dull celebrating this, you have walked right into a classic trap. now you will not be able to dispute subsequent results. opinion polls change all the time. so RB needs to do more

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  53. no 55 you have hit the nail on the head. provide that wisdom to your kaponya party. watch this space for the next poll which will show MMD in the lead with the true figures. PF claims to be a national party but Neo’s results show only 31% support!!! and still only concentrated in four northern provinces dominated by bemba speakers

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  54. I respect Dr. Neo but I very much doubt the objectivity and the sample size of his survey. Let him do a similar survey in Lusaka alone and use a much bigger sample size and see how well MMD has advanced in terms of being a favourite to win this years elections. And also let him ask the intellectuals to find out how much they appreciate the developments scored.

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  55. The opinion poll looks credible and is fair reflection of what is pertaining on the ground, however to declare Sata as winner while he leads RB by only 3% and still over 29% undecided voters is stretching it a little bit. In my opinion, whoever manages to win over the undecided voters (who are normally in urban areas with some formal education) will be smiling at the end of this September. Chances are that Sata has an upper hand, but both RB and HH should not be written off too soon. Infact, HH will be the king-maker or breaker, depending on whose voters (MCS or RB) he steals.

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  56. I conducted a public opinion poll at Intercity and KMB on this yr elections and it shows that only kaponyas will vote for the serpant and one kaponya said that katwishi ngatukaba votela abakamba tabakatusume

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  57. #24 where do you find more educated people, in the urban (CB and LSK) or the rural areas? The PF strongholds are those where you find intellectuals and if you are really serious about your PAYE and VAT then you would want to see some accountability or reduction in Taxes.

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  58. Dr Simutanyi, Using 19 out of 74 districts to sample zambia’s voter population is close to a joke. Also moving from centre to centre in these districts without going deeper into villages is a clear nightmare. I say this because of the diversity in political inclinations and public opinions of various geographical locations of Zambia.

    Simutanyi has joined the POST and SATA in commedy, I assure you. But what can you do when you have an NGO and your financiers want some activity from you? Let us be more serious than thatplease!!!

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  59. NEO, YOU’RE RIGHT AND WRONG!!…….RIGHT THAT SATA IS HEADED FOR PLOT ONE…….WRONG ON THE SCORE,…31%?……..PLEASE INCREASE YOUR SAMPLE SIZE FOR MORE CREDIBLE FIGURES…….MY INFORMED PREDICTIONS ARE: PF/SATA 75%, RB/MMD: 18%, HH/UPND: 05% , OTHER 02%…….THE FACT IS SATA HAS MORE THAN DOUBLED HIS POPULARITY SINCE 2008 ELECTIONS……MAKING SERIOUS INROADS IN WESTERN, CENTRAL & EASTERN PROVINCES……….COME RAIN COME SUNSHINE SATA WILL BE IN STATE HOUSE BY OCTOBER THIS YEAR……OF COURSE RB WILL BE UNDER A MANGO TREE AT HIS FARM WHILE HH WILL BE IN HIS BOARD ROOM DRINKING MINERAL WATER AS USUAL, PROBABLY DAY DREAMING ABOUT HIS SO CALLED SOCIAL- ECONOMIC PROGRAMME FOR ZAMBIA…… ABALEYA!!!!!!!!

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  60. CHILILABOMBWE member of parliament Esther Banda says President Rupiah Banda is assured of another massive defeat on the Copperbelt as his government has failed to show leadership over the mining sector.

    In an interview yesterday, Banda said it was immoral for President Banda to continue claiming that the country was benefitting from the mining sector when poverty and unemployment levels among young people on the Copperbelt were very high.

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  61. “What is the significance of massive foreign direct investment if our people are not benefitting from it? Poverty levels in many constituencies we have visited so far are very high. Many people are jobless and we can’t even talk about infrastructure development because everything that was left by ZCCM is dilapidated,” Banda said.”

    “People are now aware that the man occupying State House is full of deceit and they will teach him another lesson.” Banda said it was sad that despite the mines making huge profits, there was no tangible corporate social responsibility that the people could point at. She said the country needed a leader that would compel investors in the mining sector to share the profits from the mines with the people.

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  62. # 73,
    I am surprised to hear that from yopu, this is what misleads people. The places with the highest number of illiterate people are the three cities, Lusaka, Kitwe and Ndola, I thought you knew!! This is why poverty has been a hard issue to handle in our city and manucipal councils.
    The support SATA has in towns, 85% comes from the illiterates. Anyway, by defaulty more than 65 percent of the people in town are illiterate, I hope you know; and 90% of these support PF, and his SATA. The 35% representing the educated is shared among all parties with SATA getting 20% only.

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  63. 3% in 2001.29% in 2006.38% in 2008 and only 33000 votes between him and the winner.Sata has been gainin in every election,comfounding the “wise”.He has and always will be guaranteed the “kaponya” vote.but what will swing it this his way is the resignation of the “apa mwamba” who usually favoured the status quo.But quite a few now believe that RB and crew are an unmitigated disaster.They would prefer HH,but are so desperate to get RB out that might settle for Sata if his victory seemed the more likely.Of the 4 mates I have who voted for RB,3 are leaning reluctantly to Sata while the other is thinkin of not votin at all.Thats RB losin 4 votes and Sata probably gainin 3.Havnt yet met some1 who voted for Sata last time and doesnt intend to this time.

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  64. I just did an opinion poll on my extended family and tens of childhood friends scattered everywhere across the nation, the result are that Sata will win comfortably. The only one who voted for RB is my wife’s 85yr old grandmum because shes developed phobia to change of any kind over the years. The good news is that there are just a handful of octogenarians still breathing in our poverty stricken sh*thole.

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  65. Muvi Tv also conducted a poll, its on their website, its not a rumour Sata is headed for Victory..
    Those of you in denial, muka fenta ubwato ngabwaingila mu State House

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  66. #79, interesting way of looking at it (3% in 2001, 29% in 2006 despite LPM increased popularity and 38% in 2008)…now what has RB done that would lead to Sata’s decline in popularity I wonder???/:-?

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  67. #9, you are 100% correct. I have told Zambians before, if you want to extreme suffering, humiliation, loss of freedom, brutality, dictatorship, vote for Sata. You will remember my words. We quickly need to find an alternative to RB and Sata. Its not too late. Zambians please wake up from sleep and open your eyes, heads and minds. you cant vote for this serpent.

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  68. #78 Fine
    You just wasting your time mate, everyone over 18yrs old is entitled to a vote each as long as they are registered and unfortunately that includes that so much talked about Kaponyas of PF. We are in a democracy where everyone should be regarded with utmost respect especially by those wanting to be voted into public service. If you like you can get the all 35% of the educated we will be fine with 65% town illiterates. RB and Mwanawasa before him went to State house on the back of villagers and nothing as changed as far as i know so just live with the fact that the marginalised in towns and now in rural areas too are starting to indentify themselves more with H.E Mr M.C Sata and his majestic unsinkable boat.

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  69. Nice i will even buy a six pack to celebrate this outcome.Last time when he predicted in favour of Lupiya people were up in arms against him.Hmm the contrast between reality and imagination.Time to pack your bags ara bee.

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  70. 1,200 out of 5.2 million registered voters sampled in 19 districts out of 74. From the look of things all these must have been urban districts. Now here is my take on this. This sample is nowhere near being a representative sample and therefore the result is not credible and must not be relied upon. Especially that even out of the 1,200, about 348 are not decided. If you are wise you wouldn’t bet on this opinion poll. By the way Doctors are not immune to errors.

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  71. #81 Chris Kanenga.
    You are right we will faint. Such a muppet in State House!!!

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  72. @86.you have a point.the mmd sympathises like demonising pf supporters as kaponyas yet the mmd has been proped up by the rural vote for the last 10 years.how more enlightened can the rural poor be than the suffering dregs of our towns?really.rather be a “kaponya” than a rural illiterate.

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  73. #12 dont give him spss,that application is too complex to be used on election just give him pvt so that the results are more authentic than those which gets doctored by the time they ar reaching lusaka.

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  74. Everything has got time, eg Osama Bin Laden had his own time and time came to getride of him, so time for RB, Sata or HH is coming in this years elections. Generally time will tell.

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  75. @89.the trends and feelings on the ground indicate a favourable outcome for pf.true,not much can be read in this poll because of the size of the sample size.But Sata has been gaining consistently over the last 3 polls.There is nothing to suggest that his message is less receptive.if anythin it would appear the apa mwamba who were his biggest critics are coming on board.eg Bob Sichinga and Dr Mutukwa.the mmd in the last 2 polls hav stagnated at round about 40%.Sata was at 38% last time around.I think He is the more likely between RB and him to hold on to wat he had last time(he got a loyal bunch,ba kaponya kabili).If that is true and HH and Milupi gain at RB’s expense as is expected,then the doc will be correct with a winner with only 30 something percent of the vote.

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  76. Dr Neo Simuntanyi was my lecturer at UNZA when I did some public admin and political science courses. So far his prdiction have not been wrong since he started in 2001, 2006 and 2008 predicted an MMD win so now he has said it is PF so it is. He is very objective. So kanshi bane ni DONCHI KUBEEEEBAAAA!!!

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  77. # 78, you are right I agree with you, and thanks for Educating #73. I live in the CB now, I was brought up from Lusaka…. any body with clear conscious knows that CB is full of illiterate citizens with a lot of money, because they are Jerabos or business people. And these make up the population. And then we are talking about opinion Sample poll not necessarily voting. Therefore, it would be helpful to consider revealing the state of the correspondants to have a quality sampling partner. King Cobra, is supported by those that never went to school or past through school but school had no effect on them. MC as thungerly as he is, he is also the most corrupt citizen whose reasoning is crude. He is a leader yes but not a manager, for Presidency we need a Manager. Sata need control

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  78. When you go to Kanyama, or Mandevu or Chawama etc in Lusaka, you will understand how many of our people in the compounds are illiterate.

    The biggest tragedy is to be in a place that requires literacy when you are illiterate.
    It is far better to be uneducated and be in a rural area where there are few life demands that may require your literacy, than to be illiterate and be in town where your intellect is demanded in order to cop with life demands. There are more issues in town that require analysis for a voter than in villages where agriculture and transport might be the only issue to analyse. Since the villager has fewer things to analyse, he/she is better off being illiterate than his/her counterpart in the compound in town where there is high intellectual demand.

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  79. Passing a mock exam does not mean you have passed the exam itself i hope this will spur the MMD into action. The undecided voters will carry the day for MMD what more this poll was carried out in Pa Fwaka dominated areas. PF will start celebrating even before the results are announced and Mugabe sent an invitation only to hear that PF has lost because of Eastern,Copperbelt rural,central rural,western ,N/West and southern provinces.Morole of this story never count your chicks before they hatch.

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  80. In 90  days zambia will be a middle income country and we wil all have have more money in our pockets after sharing the foreign reserves and ransacking the bank of zambia

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  81. #97 please open your eyes and stop cheating yourself. Join the informed mass

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  82. #9,11,13,21,22,27 and many others you are full of UBUWELEWELE, I hope this is in the GRZ media so that those *****s like Mumbi,Chifine,Lifwekelo,and this foolish chap Chimba not forgetting aba ba cingile bu MMD SG Chibumbwa have read the news,Ulupato lubi 2008 Sata won facts are there only that we have a rotten judiciary full of ubuwelewele fye.Sata ‘s meetings here are very successful what do you expect from an opposition leader anyway?People fear the unknown,,,ifwe we tell them in Pa bwato…mwa mukolo….MMD ZWAAAAA….

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  83. Breaking news! the mmd has just rubbished the opinion polls result saying, they lack credibility!

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  84. Wishful thinking. People will cry after election when realizing that their proffered candidate has done badly.The only candidate who will win these election should win Western and and Northwestern. Sata will never win those areas so we wonder where MC will get his winning numbers.

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  85. LT why are you not publishing my comments is it because am exposing your affiliation to some of these MMD rotten clot?

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  86. With due respect to Neo Simutanyi and his research methods, I think he needed to extend his sample size so that 1,200 people do not represent the entire electoral population of 5.2 million. I know Neo means well and usually his research is impartial, but I remember in 2001 he conducted a similar opinion poll putting Anderson Mazoka to win the elections with a comfortable margin, but we all know what happened when the votes from Northern and Luapula provinces were counted. I hope Neo has considered key facts such as that the Sata no longer commands a runaway lead Lusaka, Copperbelt, Luapula and Northern Province. What I really want to know is PF’s level of electoral penetration in Provinces such Central, Southern and North-Western Provinces. PF has not won a single seat in these places.

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  87. The only problem in Zambia as far as media reporting is concerned is: we have the Post supporting the PF while ZNBC, Times & Daily supporting MMD. UPND has no coverage except the people on the ground who want the real change who neither watch TV or read the post. 

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  88. I always follow Neos analysis or polls coz they usually tell the truth about whats on the ground.As much as the PF guys are so happy about this if there is anything MMD gain from the polls coz it expose their weakness and the try to work on them.Note that there is a large number of undecided voters these they can go anyway depending on the campaign messages and other factors.In other words these are non partisan unlike you and me these pipo have to understand why they should give a vote.

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  89. sata has failed us since 1964 to 2002 and we are not stupid to think that he can change in his last lap of his life. Only senseless people see sense in him..i dont

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  90. Point of correction Village concept, the post does not support the PF neither does it oppose the ruling party, all it does is point out the wrongs and rights commited by everybody in the media spot light. I know this hurts because no one wnts to be exposed, Just like the lusaka times they don’t support MMD or oppose the opposition, all they do is present a story from a different angle and sit back to watch the drama unfold. The only biased media forum is the ZNBC which is a 100% percent controlled by the state.

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    • You need to re-examine what you have just written mate! Post does not support PF? 

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  91. Prosterity will harshly judge HH because he is the hindrance to the much desired change.

    Shame

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  92. Where is freedom of expression then Oh! what a shame that you take these comments so personal any way i’ll go to other credible sites thanks.

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  93. Ba Kuku compound, Only people with a dog loyalty will stay in a Pact like the dead one HH and Sata. Somebody calling you under five, and you still want to smile that am being praised?? That is no difference with the cases at Chainama. Firstly he was very wrong to enter into a pact with a known thung

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  94. When Dr. Sims conducted a similar poll b4 the past elections, he was insulted from left right and centre because he predicted that RB would win the elections. Now that he predicted in favor of PF, he’s everybody’d darling. My question is, did he predict right last time considering that RB ‘stole’ the votes from Sata? If he did then he predicted wrong because Sata won the last elections. where is Donchi Kubeba? I want his take on this issue.

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  95. Perhaps from an academic perspective Neo could be right. The structure of Sata`s support makes it difficult for him to win. Sata only relies on 4 provinces to win. Even in these provinces Sata get under 50 % of the total votes. As for the performance of RB, i totally agree with Neo`s poll, its very, very poor. MMD will still win with a narrow margin, same old story!

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  96. neo is a joker all his findings have been wrong.i dont know how this can be right.just a reminder,maybe he is in love with one of satanas nephews or sonsNeo,wat the shit u are called,MMD shall win these elections..

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  97. Denial will send RB’s die hards early to the grave. Dust to dust ashes to ashes. No more payin rent for your girl friends.

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  98. As for senior we cut and paste yo predictions that sata would get a heart attack this yr. Wishing you long life man.

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  99. As for Senior Citizen i cut and paste yo prediction that sata would get a heart attack this year. Wishin you long life man.

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  100. Simchagui Sata kwa sababu yeye ni mtu wa vita,magombano na dhuluma.Watu kama yeye wamefanya zambia asikini sana kwamba sioni nikirudi kuishi huko na pia mabaraza ya miji ambayo PF inasimamia kuna uchafu na ufisadi.

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  101. BA SATA FOR PRESIDENT
    BA HH FOR PRESIDENT
    BA RBB FOR PRESIDENT
    WHO WILL BE IN THE STATE HOUSE THIS TIME NO VOTES. GOOD IDEA! ITS A RACE FROM CIVIC CENTER TO STATE HOUSE, THE FIRST TO REACH THE STATE HOUSE WIIL BE THE PRESIDENT NO COMPLAINTS OR CRIES OF RIGGING

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  102. I would rather vote for one who is not popular but is of quality, not just following popularity which is so empty. I do not want to vote for someone who has been in politics since the time I was one year old, and is part of the team that plundered our economy, sponsored and bought matchetes and pangas to use on inocent people in Chawama etc, as voting for usch a person would be making me regret my vote whenever I see him. I would rather even if he wins, say Thank God I never voted for a thug. My vote cannot go on empty tins just for the sake of popularity of insults and money in my pocket without work. Us Northerners believe in work, and not someone throwing money in you pocket.

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  103. Neos analysis usually helps me to make decision or know the situation on the ground.One thing i have noted is things almost have remained the same for MMD and PF the factor here is the undecided voter which is about 20%.The fun thing about these voters is what makes them important in an election, is that these are non partisan.What determines their voting pattern are real issue based campaigns and this makes them special voters coz they can change results.

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  104. Opinion polls are good but do not determine the final results – they may influence. The final say is what the voter is going to decide. When you lose, please do not cry. Its the vote which counts.

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  105. @ chief MMD bootlicker,surely you are a true disappointment,how sad it is that we have allowed people like you to lead our nation.Whats so funny about this poll? you are saying it mentions millions in its sample, with all due respect coz you look quiet old in this picture,i assume you need spects to tell the difference between 1,200 and 1,200 000.Its you who is funny not this poll,go back to school its never too late there is Mwashibukeni classes at Kamwala high school in Lusaka,take william and rhupia with you [email protected] sr citizen,the fact that Neo who in the past has favored yor MMD party and his poll now favors PF, should be a wake up call,you have to tell your employers the truth Ba Kangwa because this might be the last year you are breathing this fine American air and enjoying our money.

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  106. #116 Mzambia wa zamani
    Nafikiri siasa ya zambia uijui kabisa kwani PF inasera nzuri kuliko hawa wanafiki MMD waliyo sababisha nchi yetu kua maskini.Kumbuka kwamba vitendo vingi vibovu pamoja na rushua vinaendekezwa na MMD. PF ni chama cha wananchi kilicho kubalika na watu wengu kwa hiyo tafadhali tafsiri kiundani zaidi. Viva PF!

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  107. These stats don’t seem to add up…..Are they saying that 29% will go to clowns like Magande, Cosmo etc?????/
    Its supposeed to be Sata 51%, RB 40% and HH 7%…… the rest will get 2%….PABWATO!

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  108. Fine keep on dreaming, without unit “PACT” take it cool otherwise you may faint because some people are swayed by little things and will vote wrongly. So take this election with care.

    To the PF do not slumber these are simply opinions, work hard if you are to make it to state house, 2% in North Western Province is extremely bad, consider disbanding your party.

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  109. #123. Well said. We know this chap is paid by B. Kangwa from the Zed embassy in US to write these nonsense. Surely his days are numbered.

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  110. Ok, before we get too excited! with a sample size of 1200 this means that out of 72 districts there were at least 17 respondents to the survey in each district , if you narrow it down to proportional sampling it means that lusaka (with about 2million people and 14%of our population) had 168 respondents meaning that 10 other districts had no respondents at all. We could look at others like Ndola, Kitwe and Livingstone then you will realise that this poll was only done in urban areas which are a stronghold for PF? but we all know that MMD wins in the countryside and it wont be any different this time around.

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  111. A sample of 0.03 percent of 3,941,229 registered voters in 2006. Well, surely a seriously statistically flawed poll. Anyway it is a poll!

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  112. Since the majority in Lusaka, Central, Copperbelt are illiterate or Kaponyas, we shall give our kaponya vote to one MCS.

    VIVA KAPONYA, VIVA PF.. donchi kubeba

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  113. How come I have NEVER EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER met someone doing a poll? There must be something wrong, has anyone here on LT ever participated in a poll like this?

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  114. I think this yr will be even be more interesting, let parliament be dissolved thats when the real landscape will be seen. HAlf a dozen of MMD minsters will join PF. Now that brings us to the actual position of RB if Mbita is jumped onto the boat expect more high ranking officials esp those who were bared from from fake MMd convention will shift camps. Ba lelolela GRATUITY. Viva pa Bwato

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  115. ALA ITS TIME TO JUMP INTO THE BOAT LOOK AT MBITA CHITALA AND BOB SICHINGA, TIME IS RUNNING OUT!

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  116. @Roger Ramjet.you hav a point there.never been opinion polledand never met any1 who has either.we really must be doin something wrong.

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  117. I get very annoyed whenever I hear MMD *****s insulting Zambians who support PF as Kaponyas. I’ve someone I know who is a degree holder, but he’s now a minibus driver just because MMD has failed the people. Most, if not all, of these foolish MMD leaders got free education under KK, but when these dogs took over power in 1991, School fees were introduced & within 3 years, they were increased. In 1992, Boarding fees were K200/term, & by 1994, it was K4,000/term. The Zambian people have not failed to get educated, MMD Govt has failed the people by commercialising education. So it is foolhardy for MMD to be laughing at the uneducated, that is a product of your failure to run Govt, a reason to vote you out. Have a sense of shame, SoBs.

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    • You may be in for a shock when your Sata comes in. Especially that he was the core of the corrupt MMD during Kafupi’s tenure…

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  118. RB kuya bebele. Cum wat may wit/without political engineern by kafuta prepare 4 change

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  119. This opion poll is fake. wait for actual elections. Opinion polls results in Zambia depends on who has funded. This man is eating with both hands

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  120. SATA FOR PRESIDENT; ZAMBIA WILL BE CLEAN, NURSES AT UTH WILL WORK, POLICE WILL STOP BEING CORRUPT, TEACHERS WILL TEACH, MEDICINES WILL NOT BE STOLEN, INVESTORS WILL TREATE AND PAY ZAMBIANS WELL . DONCHI KUBEBA.

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  121. Although Im an MMD addict I must admit that there is panicking in the government evrything points to the colapse of the party it looks exactly like1991 and 2001 when Kaunda and chiluba were leaving respectively. Looks like Zambia must see a new president every election year ending with one. Rupiya came at the wrong time.

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  122. The change is well written on everybody’s face. RB the worst President Zambia has ever produced has achieved his Unipist desire to punish MMD for the 1991 defeat of UNIP by actually having made sure that the True Blues were eliminated by various crocked means when became President. Its important to reflect on the imprisonment of Katele and acquittal of FTJ! Bye bye MMD. Go the 1991 UNIP way. MMD for the archives as RB tumbles maybe tailends even to HH as SATA beats everybody hands down in this Presidential elections!

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