UNITED Party for National Development (UPND) spokesperson Charles Kakoma says the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) opinion poll tipping Patriotic Front (PF) president Michael Sata to win the 2011 poll is fake, as it does not reflect the situation on the ground.
Mr Kakoma said in Lusaka yesterday that Dr Neo Simutanyi, the consultant and executive director of CPD who worked on the opinion, is just daydreaming and the UPND does not understand his motivation to make ‘wrong and fake predictions’.
Dr Simutanyi said at a press briefing yesterday that the opinion poll suggests that Mr Sata will win with 31 percent of the votes while President Banda will come second at 29 percent.
Dr Simutanyi said UPND president Hakainde Hichilema will trail in third place with 12 percent of the vote while other candidates will get five percent.
He said the CPD’s sample size is not reasonable enough to represent the views of all registered voters.
“Is the opinion of 1,000 people representative of more than 4,000,000 registered voters? That is a joke and his sampling techniques are questionable and too biased. He has not been to all parts of Zambia. How does he know what the entire voting population is saying?” he said.
About 31.6 percent of Zambians feel the MMD cares about the agricultural sector while 20 percent think the PF would do a good job and 10 percent opted for UPND.
Dr Simutanyi said corruption is not considered a serious problem as only 3.6 percent identified it as such.
He said a closer examination of electoral preferences suggests that there has been little shift from the 2006 and 2008 scenarios.
In 2008, Dr Simutanyi conducted a similar poll with the same predictions. He disowned it after it was discredited and the results of the elections were different from his prediction.
[Zambia Daily Mail]
Ba Kakoma, which sch did you go to? The 1200 is just the sample size. You don’t need to ask all the registetered voters to come up with an opinion poll. Your 12% will even become 2% while Sata will get 41% by the time election will be conducted
I agree with Kakoma that the prediction is FAKE! In order for any sample of the population to be representative, 10% of the populatn shd b sampled. I do nt thing 1200 pipo represent 10% of more than 4,000,000 registred voters! This Dya Dreaming!
ba upnd dnt force tuma comments even on the optinion polls so that u make headlines in the paper,u are not in the race.beta u just watch from a distance
UPND will do better to direct its energy at organisation & mobilisation of supporters than constantly refuse & refute opinions that do not favour them. You are always on the defensive to every little thing. Sometimes it better to just listen, watch, let go & move on
Dr. Simutanyi had predicted the PF-UPND would die but he was insulted by HH. The doct. is acurate.
Do a basic in statistics they will show how you carry out surveys.
Daily MAIL STARTS by denying before they report the subject matter. I blame your former lectures at Hone.
Polls are just that polls. They are neither right nor wrong in terms of African politics. So if I were PF I would rather concentrate more on campaigning than on celebrating some poll whose motive I do not understand.
I support that the sitting president must hold on to power until 5 years madent has elapsed. RB is entiltled to rule Zambia for 5 years according to the constitution of Zambia so there are no elections this year. Ba Ndokota just continue dreaming about your survey which is just an academic exercise. I end here!
:d let’s aim to think like real humans and not dogs. With this corruption that is around the world, I have many reasons to support that doc as a fake number one. Zambia is filled with regional politics and it means no party is very popular through out the country unless. What if that sample test was carried out in kitwe or lusaka. It is a known fact sata performs in these areas and so results as usual will favour king. Please don’t be bothering your necks by carrying heads that have no brains. Think and get that whatever the case, sata ‘s retirement package in politics is being prepared. He settle in mpike and the right to be zee will be with him. Sata won’t be and will never be head of state because it can’t (3÷5) it can’t. Its victory to RB again RB again .
ba UPND niba chililalila, every normal Zambian knows that even the little % they got was out of pity because for them its just 2%.
My advice to UPND is to press on and ignore Simutanyi’s acts of aberration.
First as a democracy in Zambia we appreciate the opinions of researchers and instead advise political actors to cultivate momentum from any report. In the same vein we urge political actors to accept the ballot verdict without veinly resorting to helpless accusations that elections have been lost because of some underhand methods. I know this is not the case with PF Kaponyas who almost lynched Neo to death for his usual narrow based research opinion. Neo is free to continue doing what he knows better in predictive statistics. I will even send him SPSS software to help him in this year’s election race. his opinios are respected
I respect his right of speech and publicly deseminated opinions. There is always a dignifying way of shredding flawed and sublevel academic work that lack credibility by every measure.I’m sure you and i know better that in all his surveys, our brother and fellow scholar’s surveys in the past have always been proved dead wrong with wider variances. We cannot even draw to the point of debating his standard deviations. This is largely due to his academic narrow base approach in research. I pledge to send him leading worldwide Predictive Analytics software from SPSS Inc. to analyze, model, and score demographic and behavioral data, along with attitudes and opinions, to find voters most likely to support a candidate or to reach the undecided swing vote accurately.
Rb and HH hijaked existin political parties. Sata created one from the scratch . WHO IS POPULAR
SATA SATAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA IS POPULAR AND REAL
The difficulty that UPND finds itself in is to always waste time defending itself from perceived lack of popularity. It is surprising that a party that boasts of educated members cannot realize that such distractions will only erode their ability to sell themselves to the electorate. Show some political intelligence ba UPND by focusing on explaining your agenda for the nation. Don’t waste your time responding to issues that have no relevance to you winning or losing the forthcoming election. After you lose this year;s election, go to a proper convention and change your leadership, because the current one has failed you.
Wina azalila,ayamba nakudala kulila.its baby cry all the way,these under fives.
#10 Senior citizen we are waitin to see who gets the first heart attack between YOU and SATA:-\”
I think UPND is closing one eye to reality. HH cannot win an election because he is an excited for nothing young man. PF has made strides in Lusaka, Copperbelt, Northern, Luapula and I am sure Western Province may think of giving him support. HH can only win in Southern Province (thanks to the Tonga tribalism!) and maybe split votes with MMD in North-Western Province.
I think UPND is hanuted by the fact that they left the Pact and realised that they are nothing without PF. Cry babies!
Lets not day dream lets get to facts: between October 2006 and now we have had 36 local government by-elections PF won 2, MMD retained 12 UPND won 22, 9 parliamentary by-elections MILUPI retained his seat, PF won 2, MMD retained 3, UPND won 3 and one presidential by-election MMD retained it. I want someone to tell me which party is growing
What kind of thinking is that ba Mulenga…
I feel for my party UPND. We allowed a naive young man to hijack our party purely on tribal lines. We then got into bed with the devil hoping to hijack his popular party! Look @ us now, political has beens who can’t even get coverage in the PF vuvuzela. It’s safe to say we’re dead and buried.
LET US WAIT AND SEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! KAKOMA WHY ARE YOU BEHAVING LIKE A KAPONYA? IS THIS A MATTER TO WORRY ABOUT? WAKE UP MAN AND FACE REALITY AND DEVISE NEAR STRATEGIES……….
# 6 It iz common and characteristic of the so called public government controlled media houzes to rush into fire-fighting without reporting the fire in the first place. Late Anderson Mazoka(this month marks 5? yearz of hiz death), must be turning in hiz grave considering what hiz once vibrant UPND haz been reduced to, an empty insignificant vessel.
UPND is now fighting on all fronts! You wont last long you under 5s. Focus on reorganizing yourselves after you pulled out from the PACT.
Daily mail is for sure a fighter brigade UNIT.
I have alsoconducted a poll using 2000 opinions and I have Upnd winning by 32 percent MMD second with 29 PF 3rd with 10 the rest will be inconsequential to the vote…am I am sure this is a true reflection of the pols on the ground using 2000 sample size if it be 4,000,000 then this may alter
U do not understand what u are talking about
Do not be excited for nothing. The problem PF thinks they have won with this fake poll. You will be the first ones to cry thinking there was rigging. Please do not even think about that because if you misbehave, we will lock you up and throw away the key.
A meaningful and acceptable research result must be scientically conducted. And the conclusion should not suggest permanence as the electorates’ moods keep swinging according to turn of events. Indeed 1000 sample size cannot be representative of 4000000 registered voters. and Simutanyi must be ashamed to come up with this trash in the middle of so many intellectuals in Zambia. And I do not Know when this man became a doctor. High placed sources at UNZA told me that he had in fact failed to graduate at doctorate level and wondered why the Post insisted on referring him to as doctor,but was quick to note that attaching the high academic title to his name helped the sales of the paper as people believed that articles by Simutanyi were erudite.
Mulenga @ 18. No sane person can dispute your logical conclusion. Let them respond in an equally intelligent manner. It is clear here that OUR MMD is a front Party.
Iwe ka kakoma, cant you see that your UP N DOWN party is only popular in one province, southern province? Just accept reality young a/ss. Your small tribal party with your under five leader have no chance in this year’s election, and you will actually never have any chance anyway.
A meaningful and acceptable research result must be a product of a research that is scientically conducted. And the conclusion should not suggest permanence as the electorates’ moods keep swinging according to turn of events. Indeed 1000 sample size cannot be representative of 4000000 registered voters. and Simutanyi must be ashamed to come up with this trash in the middle of so many intellectuals in Zambia. And I do not Know when this man became a doctor. High placed sources at UNZA told me that he had in fact failed to graduate at doctorate level and wondered why the Post insisted on referring him to as doctor,but was quick to note that attaching the high academic title to his name helped the sales of the paper as people believed that articles by Simutanyi were erudite.
simutanyi is not a Doctor, he holds no PhD. he terribly failed as #29 puts it. honestly how can a sample of 1000 people reflect the representation of the 4million voters. Did he go to collect his data from the rural areas where we have seen of late that those votes normally decide the winner? or he based his data collection from a lowly publicized website through a fake survey . no wonder it was just 1000. no opinion poll will truly reflect the final result as long as it is done on the internet. maybe if he goes door to door through out the country like the national census. not the fake sampling of 1000 Lusaka based kaponyas.
#29 and #30. At which University was he so that we check if his name and thesis is on the University website. Universities this time puts on their site all graduates incliding the thesis. So of us with genuine PhDs our names and thesis can be found at university site where we did our PhDs.
This opinion poll is shallow as it has 15% undecided voters!! This is way tooo much considering that on the ballot box there will be no space for undecided.
The biggest mistake UPND made was to reject Clive Chirwa’s insightful suggestion.
It is not too late for UPND to return to the table for the sake of Zambia and UPND’s survival.
Can’t UPND see that even after granting the wish of those calling for the pulling out of the Pact, the same people are still criticizing them, e.g. Chizyuka?
Open your eyes for Zambia UPND, and go back to the table.
I would like to see an independent opinion poll which puts UPND ahead of other political parties. ZERO so far, not even a biased one like Lifwekelo’s which favored Rupiah and MMD for obvious reasons. Sour grages ba UPND. We told you that you’re UNDER 5. Viva Michael Sata!
HA HA HA HA HA HA. MMD will win the votes cleanly this time. Wait and see. PF will cry once again. After all they are used to loosing elections. Just look at the way Great Kalu has beaten this PF chap Simata Simata. These are signs of another eminent defeat. HA HA HA HA HA HA. Forget about these opinion surveys. The real survey will come from Sinjambela, Sikongo and Shan’gombo.
Ok Dr. Kakoma, if the poll had instead said that UPND or HH will win, Sata will be number 3 and MMD number 2, could you have believed the report?
I think those attacking the sample size are justifiable. Construction of a sample size in research does matter and can influence results.
This Dr who is a genuine Dr when he predicted MMD victory in 2008 and now a fake DR because he predicts Otherwise needs to come forth with data on how he put up the sample
Tue opinion poll needs to be done per constituency and you have to to place where ordinary people frequent and at least 10 000 per constituency.
Any sponsors please
Many UPND men cant satisfy their wives in bed……plz try Yeginkgo and Tongkat Ali, u assured 0f 7 rounds in a night, it will also help u to keep your dirty mouth shut…Fa Mukolo Feela ..PF..
Most of the partisan comments on this blog reflect the intolerance deeply entrenched in the Zambian political psyche. It is clear that most Zambians do not understand what democracy is all about. Democracy is not about political parties winning the presidency at all costs. It is about participation by several players. Even if we may know that its only Sata or RB who might win the presidency, its important that HH and others participate as well. Its good for Zambia’s democracy. Its about availing the electorate with choice. Its good to have Mps from several different political parties.
It’s unfortunate anyone in the physical sciences such as Engineers, Mathematicians, and physicists etc who have studied the Randomness of Numbers will look at this analysis with bewilderment. Only F.O.O.L.S believe in DATA. It would appear our colleagues in the social sciences may have a limited understanding of numbers and believe in anything that looks analytically correct when infact not.
UNPD THE MOST STUPID AND A PARTY FULL OF ILLUSION! YOU NEED TO GET IN TOUCH WITH REALITY! THE BATTLE IS BETWEEN MMD AND PF!
And this is true for all Data churned out by our learned friends in the accounting profession, and economists such as GDP, GNP, GNI, GNH, and all the accounts from any institution on planet earth are all fake. The USA Budget numbers are fake so are Japan, China India and all these clowns who claim to be experts at running the world economy. Take the Mopani accounts, the KCM accounts the National Budget all are fake numbers games. They even go to the extent of targeting inflation? How the chick! How can you target inflation numbers? How do you target growth numbers? They are all imaginary. So just treat Leo Simutanyani’s analysis as fake and trash. Besides being a PhD or D.SC like myself does not make me any better placed than any ordinary man in the street who is also streetwise educated
DAILY MAIL…HEHEHEHE
The elections will be tough this year. However, the opposition will split the votes and MMD will win.
Kakoma must be a very dull chap.Where in the history of surveys has the whole population took part ? Even in the states when they say Obama`s opinion polls levels have picked up it doesn`t mean the whole population has taken a part.Polls are just representative of a big picture.
The best thing UPND can do is to stop chasing pipe dreams and withdraw from the race.
Indeed, I was equally disappointed when I read that a certain Professor Clive Chirwa, supposedly an engineer like me, had suggested that Mr. Sata be the Pact president and used historical voting pattern numbers as the reason. Obviously he was being dishonest because I am sure he knew his analysis was faulty. Having said that, the world would be totally boring without people like Leo Simutani who make us laugh and make us cry. Like Professor Lameki Goma once delivered in his 1974 graduation ceremony speech’ the usefulness of useless disciplines”. I would paraphrase and say “the usefulness of useless people”.
Charles Kakoma you are disillusioned. Why always fight HE Michael Sata, he is not in power yet. As opposition you have one common challenge the disgruntled and incopetent MMD. You are a sour grape. When you were in the Pact with PF you had no plan B, infact you wanted to climb the tree from the leaves!!! Today Sata is a more popullar candidate: BY Mwila, Rupaih Banda, Sakwiba Sikota ,Tilyenji Kaunda, Eddith Nawakwi and Hakainde Hichilema combined. UPND you lost a grand opportunity when you left the Pact. Don’t cry about Sata search yourselves and just ask Rupiah to make public the election date. Sell yourself before then to people. Time is moving fast.
UPND must be living in a cacoon or bubble! Your main role is that of king-makers or spoilers otherwise to think HH will carry the day is akin to hallucination that comes by way of having some crazy hot and fresh green sensemilia that grows near a broken sewer pipe!!
#39 and #40 I agree with you. Being someone who has spent a bit more time with numbers and even finished my university education in mathematics (got a PhD)..I can tell you numbers are just numbers and you can do anything to them to convince (confuse) the uninitiated.
Simutanyi’s is an opinion and will remain just that–
Wait and see, Charles. You have truly missed your chance to be a relevant force in Zambia
#10 and 11 Senior Citizen, UNZA has SPSS so no need to send him that. Dr Simutanyi has links to UNZA he has lectured there for many years so you can save your software it is available freely to any UNZA computer lab.
#18 Mulenga, your points though valid they might seem, they are too simplistic based on the fact that you have not given in which regions those by-elections where occurring. Please not that politics in Zambia are now more regional than ever, and if by any chance majority of by-elections occur in a region that one party seems to be strong, going by your method, that party would be on the path to growth, which is misleading. Don’t forget that General Elections are national and so is the Presidential race. The aggregate of votes counted from all regions, will determine the winner, full stop.
One thing is certain, besides splitting votes, UPND is out of the league for the top slot..Thanks to HH’s miscalculations..
Dr Kaponya @42. You are indeed a kaponya. Here we are not suggesting that the whole population be sampled. what we are saying is that 1000 out of 4000000 is aburd.
Dr Kaponya @42. You are indeed a kaponya. Here we are not suggesting that the whole population be sampled. what we are saying is that 1000 out of 4000000 is absurd.
Very few research done in the world have ever used such a BIG sample size. If one is intelligent like some of our friends claim, he should be talking about the sampling procedure and the sampling frame. Lets not just expose our ignorance. A sample of 32 elements is considered large statistically and a model for a large sample size can be used to draw statistical inference…
LEARN TO RESPECT OPINION POLLS AND USE THEM TO STRATEGIZE. NEOS POLLS ARE USUALLY CREDIBLE . THERE IS STILL TIME FOR ALL PARTIES TO WOO VOTERS AND CHANGE THE TIDE.
To me it seems HH and UPND will not be the biggest losers in this election after all. Have people thought about what will happen to MMD and RB if Sata wins, or what will happen to PF and Sata if RB wins? Common sense tells me that either Sata or RB are potentially the biggest losers in this election.
While we respect some of Dr Neo Simutanyi’s finding we are alert to the fact that he is a MMD hired trickster who specialises in helping the MMD rig elections. His briefing in this case was to give an impression that HH stands no chance so that UPND voters can switch their votes to MMD. This is in line with the MMD strategy as mouthed out by some chiefs in S. Province two weeks ago. MMD strategists know the true picture on the ground through their intelligence sources which shows HH and RB not very far apart with Sata leading by a narrow margin. They know that with intensified campaigning the results would even out and they are scared of UPND eating into their traditional support base in Central, Western, Northwestern and Lusaka & C/B rural. They have now embarked on a scare campaign
As for you blind PF followers this opinion poll should worry you instead of rejoicing. One thing you show know is that it is almost impossible to dislodge an African govt with such a narrow margin as indicated in Simutanyi’s poll. All what MMD will do is steal some of the UPND votes to fill up the missing numbers. If MMD can rig opinion polls as indicated in Simutanyi’s poll were about 27% of the so called sample respondents votes were not accounted for than you better start worrying about the real results.
Interesting debate and comments. There seems to be some confusion between a sample size and population. By the way, you don’t need a PhD to understand statistics. In most instances a PhD is a research training qualification, a contribution of new knowledge in an area. It does not necessarily include statistical analysis. As for Neo Simutanyi’s findings, why don’t you guys do your own studies using what you consider credible methodology and sample size and statistically demonstrate the impossibility of his findings? Why do you disparage people without foundation? Is this the Zambian way? Get enlightened, get educated, get a life!
HH and UPND have every democratic right to participate in the elections. Those that wish HH and UPND dead, wiped out of the system are joking. Yu want the field to remain for SATA and RB, two grand fathers? Never. Let HH, CHIPIMO, energetic Miyanda, Milupi play a part.
If the 58 commentators above on this LT had to today:
Sata will get 75 %, RB (MMD) 20 % and HH (UPND) 3 % and other parties 2 %. I used SPSS suggested by Senior Citizen.
Those who commented more than once, are counted as MMD’s rigging system.
Let the MMD accept this. They cannot rig an opinion poll which reflects reality on the ground. They can only steal an election. This year is different. We have watched our Arab brothers fighting for their rights. Zambians should stand up and remove this government which has become so irrelevant. Should they steal the election, we’ll Gbagbo them out!
#12 ba Senior Citizen thinks Neo has no SPSS. Neo does work for the WORLD BANK.
It does not matter. We in UPND grassroots will vote tactfully. We know HH will not win and will make sure that Copperbelt & Lusaka goes to MMD to stop Sata. This is our motive and is shared by most of the UPND MP’s It does not matter if Sata goes to Europe tiring his legs and heart. Votes will not come from Europe but on the battlegrounds of Zambia.
In this years election MMD will gain a lot in Lusaka & Copperbelt via UPND surrogates.Let’s go UPND and stop Sata by all means….
This is not trying to be a snake to my fellow UPND supporters. Zambia is far much better off having RB continuing his development path than have Sata who will reverse everything and promote tribalism when he comes into power.
Sata has no regards for Tonga, Lozi & Luvale people. History and comments his has made in the past speaks volumes. That’s just the fact
Please PF cadres do not let tujilijili affect your thinking.You are lack to have that half caste terrorist who calls himself a journalist on your side.I wonder if its a coincidence that he has a bemba name and supporting satan.I wish his body could be weighted down with big stones and burried in the Zambezi like the Americans did to the one who can not be mentioned or should be given to his cousins to plug a kernel down his arse hole as a good measure.REMEMBER THAT POLLS AND NEWSPAPER HEADLINES DONT VOOOOOOTE!!!!!!!
#65 take the tribal route and the Bemba land shall arise and swallow you
All politicians behave like prostitutes: They only praise and endorse that which is to their advantage or favours their position. I am sure if the results of the poll at issue had namded UPND instead of PF, Kakoma would have been conveniently quiet. Similarly, if the MMD had been said to be on top, dollar Siliya would have found no cause to dispute such poll results.
Any person who is objective about the matter will tell you that HH is clearly not a factor in the forth-coming elections. He has completely been blacked out by both the private and public media (I only ever read about him on LT and Zambia Watchdog and even then, its mostly his party people talking). It is clear that he will not win the upcoming election and his only role is that of being a spoiler, a role he will gladly play if only to keep Sata out of State House. And people on this site would want me to believe that this is the type of ‘intellectual’ leader that the country needs??? I stand to be corrected but it seems like a whole lot of hogwash.
Is this the type of “selflessness” that we want from future leaders?
#73 & 74
This is a democracy. HH and UPND have their democratic rights to participate in elections. You will also note that when u analyse the two top parties as per opinion polls recently indicated…..RB and SATA are beyond the age of 75 yrs. these can not rule after the next 5 years unless we want to slide back 100 years. So if RB or SATA win….after 2016 do’nt u think zambians will need new generation of Leaders? so i believe UPND has a LONG TERM PICTURE TO THIS. besides we should not advocate or cultivate a situation where only one opposition party exists. If PF fails Zambians must have a Political party that they will fall back on. So lets respect others democratic and constitutional rights.
Political think tank, I am not advocating for HH to step down, I am merely analyzing his actions as those of being a spoiler because he will split the vote, no question about that. Is he exercising his democratic right? Absolutely, I agree entirely. But the bottom line is that the role that he will play in this year’s election is that of a spoiler. His role in the next election (2016) may be different as the political landscape would have changed by the factors that you have mentioned amongst others. And then again maybe, there will be other challengers that will come up and his role will not be any different. WHAT IS CLEAR AT LEAST FOR THE 2011 ELECTION IS THAT HH DOES NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT NUMBERS NEEDED TO SCOOP THE REPUBLICAN PRESIDENCY. You are more than welcome to dispute my analysis.
# 76 To the best of my knowledge we do not know who will win the elections. Otherwise it would be pointless to conduct them. So are you saying that all the candidates must withdraw from the race because they don’t know if they will win. And when you say that HH will be a spoiler, spoiler for who? Why do people like you think that HH owes anyone anything. Even you can form a party and stand in this year’s elections! If you do not like HH, simply do not vote for him! Its that simple!
Dragon, this is a simple analysis that has nothing to do with HH as a person. If HH had the second largest party in Zambia next to MMD and Sata came in a close third, I would still be making a similar conclusion about Sata running in this year’s election. For as long as the race remains close between the top two parties (whichever these parties maybe, currently it is MMD and PF, who knows? Tomorrow it could be MMD and UPND) and every other party comes a far distance, then I can conclude that participation of the other parties would likely split the vote. It is a logical political analysis. Simple. In this case, the affected party happens to be UPND. So what exactly is the problem here?
By the way, I am not using the term ‘spoiler’ in its literal sense but defining it within the context of vote splitting. I honestly do not see what the issue is here.
Olympia Extension Chick!
You
do not understand democracy at all. Simutanyi has given one opinion poll based on a sampling of 1200 people. This opinion poll has been taken at a time when campaigning has not started. It’s only a fool who can assume that the elections will nirror the result of this poll. As things stand no one knows for sure how the election results will be so it is premature for you to claim that HH will not be a factor. That is your wishful thinking and to be honest UPND members don’t care about your opinion. We believe in proper democracy and we want a properly balanced parliament so whether HH comes third or not we will vote for him. HH/UPND represents a voice 4 the youths & it will be heard!
Zed Patriot, an opinion poll is simply that, an opinion. In some cases, it can be reflective of the general mood meaning that one can draw credible inference based on the credibility of methodology used, in other cases, it can be biased. If you had a chance to see my post about Neo’s poll, I said that it was interesting, however the sample size, in my opinion, was too small. Is my opinion, the all and end all? I don’t think so, it is simply my opinion, it may influence people and then again, it may not. As things stand today on this 6th day of the 5th month of the year 2011, HH’s chances are very slim. Could his fortunes turn? Absolutely, I am not disputing that and I will be the first to acknowledge it IF it happens. However, as of this moment, he is not a serious contender.
This why Africa is soooooooooo backwards? Why do people in Zambia place an emphasis on someones education? Not all Phd,Masters el tal are wise.To succeed the first thing you need is initiative and will to do things using different approaches. A good example is why is it that most of the lecturers that educate masses of people in zambia are poor??? jog on
Olympia Extension Chick!
I am not necessarily focussing on the results of the opinion poll because I know opinion polls change with time. What I disagree most with you is on your claim that UPND is a spoiler in these elections. UPND represents a political interest group that plays a major role in our democracy as demonstrated in the blocking of the constitutional bill. You and I will need UPND to settle contiguous parliamentary issues in the future. I don’t agree with the reasoning of PF supporters who believe in a strong man president as a saviour to our problems. What Zambia needs is a properly balanced three way parliamentary system that will make any president think twice before implementing unpopular policies.
…contnd from #83. Having a strong man in state house will not solve Zambia’s problems. We will just be going back to the Kaunda days. If we chose a system that gives the ruling party a majority to enable them pass laws without the need to lobby other parties then we will be going back to square one because all what we will be doing in replacing Banda with Sata or HH. As a nation we need to learn from our historical mistakes, that giving too much power to one man is suicidal. Sata or HH can pretend to be angels when in opposition but they will turn into devils once they have the presidential powers. It’s important for us to learn not to keep falling in the same ditch and to achieve that you need to made sure we encourage a third force.
ALL OPINION POLLS ANNOUNCED BY NEO IN THE PAST HAVE BEEN VINDICATED. WHAT MAKES YOU SCAPTICAL ABOUT THESE ONES. IN 2008 HE ANOUNCED MMD WOULD CARRY THE DAY AND IT DID HAPPEN. UPND SHOULD CHANGE LEADERSHIP, HH, CANT TAKE YOU TO STATE HOUSE. HE HAS NO GUTS TO TAKE RISKS IN THE POLITICAL ARENA.
Zed Patriot, my aim is not to convince you about my assertions, it is merely an observation that I have made at this point. UPND will scoop parliamentary seats, absolutely and if I review it from purely from two aspects, (local and parliamentary elections), UPND has some solid chances and the balance that you talk about can be achieved at that level. HOWEVER, for the PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, which in the Zambian case is not necessarily correlated with parliamentary numbers (meaning you can still be president with minimum # of seats in the House), HH still comes up short at this point in the game. In any political race which is tightly contested between two parties (as the case maybe in Zambia), the remaining players in the field split the vote that tips the scale of who wins.
Ct’d from 86: This is a very simple political theory that any political analyst would make AND it is completely divorced from personalities and merely being analyzed within the context of the Zambian political situation. You have made too many assumptions about my observations that are not related to the theory that I have put forward. Rather than categorize me as a PF supporter, maybe you may want to try and poke holes in the theory and tell me where it is flawed.
OPINION POLLS BY MUVI TV
ALSO SHOW- SATA 47%, RB 21% AND HH 16%. SAMPLE OF 1,084 VOTERS.
SATA FOR PRESIDENT; ZAMBIA WILL BE CLEAN, POLICE & ZRA WILL STOP BEING CORRUPT, TEACHERS WILL TEACH, NURSES AT UTH WILL WORKS AND INVESTORS WILL TREATE AND PAY ZAMBIANS WELL. DONT KUBEBA.
Kakoma stay focused, the opinion poll should just make you widen your catchment area. analyze the current status and look at what you can do to change the possible situation on the ground. these are indicators you don’t need to comment on.
@Zed patriot, I like the way you organise your thoughts. Keep it up!
As #60 rightly put it, HH is not and won’t be the biggest loser even though he came third in the final count. The biggest loser will be the one who will come second! They will wish they had HH on their side. The best right now UPND should do is to continue eating into the strongholds of MMD and PF, and ignore the opinon polls. One of these parties especially MMD will come come knocking on your door for partnership. Am pretty sure this will happen sooner or later. Where I am right now, you are very popular and people are eagerly waiting to hear what you have to offer. Since you are not being covered in the media cover yourselves by appearing to the people especially to explain your manifestos.
@Olympia extention chick, you said HH would gladly want to block Sata from entering plot one by spoiling votes. You went ahead to pose a question full of question marks, like is this the kind of selfless leaders we need? Why are you now busy justifying yourself. In short you want other parties to back off and let PF as the only opposition? This automatically makes you a PF sympathiser.
Olympia Extension Chick!
The only way UPND can get the parliamentary seats they need is by fielding HH as their presidential candidate. Politics is like football, you don’t surrender just because your opponent is leading 2-0 at half time. You just have to keep positive and keeping playing hoping to equalise and win. So there is no reason why HH should surrender now when there is still 80mins of play time. HH is the youngest of the leading contenders so he can learn a lot by remaining in the race. He is also the most disadvantaged in terms of media coverage so those opinion polls might just be reflecting media reports as of now. When the real campaigns kick in things will change since the foot soldiers will be campaigning on the ground.
Ba young patriot, or it itparrot. Is HH leadership material? ask him if he got an UNZASU presidency. Hikaumba, I voted for him and was president. If Parrot you are so tribal then field in Hikaumba, that is my man and has leadership. My advise with Hikaumba, have a visionary mind to take you where you should go. You are a leader in the offing. No one should bribe you to tarnish you image. The other chap though is put himself in pig pen is Edify Hamukale, he is passionate and loving and generous-let me qualify this-he has a heart for people regardless of tribe, this the Zambia we want. Once assisted a woman who was bleeding, rapped a woman in his coat and took her to hospital. This in the leaders tongas should concentrate on. Edify Hamukale has a heart like Sata-Otherwise, Sata is winning
No need to panic, brother Kakoma. An opinion poll is a snapshot at one instant in time. If Neo knows what he is doing, he should be taking these samplings at regular intervals and then, (this is most important part), determining the TRENDS. Is his favourite geriatric Sata GAINING or WANING? Statistics is about movement and correlations. He should correlate Lusaka voting patterns to overall countrywide voting behaviour. In other words, in past elections, did the result in Lusaka accurately predict the nationwide vote outcome? He should allow for this and other factors to accurately use an analysis of a limited sample to predict the future. Doctor Neo, give us the sampling error, the limitations of your methodology, and show us a trend over time, or your poll is useless to we Zedians.
We as UPND knows that this is our year, we won’t be distracted by anything, we are on ground. Sureuly we are pulling a surprise!! Viva HH, viva UPND.
Lets wait and see….
I will myeba!!!! Fake polls! the pipo of zambia have now seen that PF is just another MMD. Almolst half of the selfish leaders we wanted to remove are now in PF (abena Mulongoti, Chitala, Mpombo, etc). shame of PF. It is clear for any reasonable person that HH and his UPND is the best for zambia. Homosata is loosing,and he has seen it coming! thats why he went to UK to ask funds from his fellow gay activists. God is watching.
Olimpya fimofimo, you are spending do much anergy trying to defend your ill formed so-called political theory. You are better off letting it flit. I failed to see the theory you are trying to propagate. In fact, in your initial post, there was no theory but subjective disregard of UPND and HH. In a democracy, even parties that can get 2% of the total vote are a factor. All polittical players are a factor, less significant as they may seem.
There are people who think “Don’t Kubeba” is an original idea of Guy Scott and PF. Just to set the record right, Daniel Munkombwe used the principle first in election 2001 while he was going around SP campaigning for Andy Mazoka. The term don’t kubeba may be an invention of Guy Scott but the principle has been around for at least ten years. Don’t Kubeba applies to all the players. It doesn’t advantage the PF, UPND or MMD. Be ware of the vote swings. Don’t Kubeba!
No matter how you will want it, Sata will take the day. Be real Zambians and do not let your emotion overtake your reasoning’s. The problem we have in Zambia we associate leadership with the wealth one has. HH because of the K46 billion or is it K6 billion (here I fail to understand if the first figure is wrong because last time in 2008, HH was worth K6 billion, unless my figure is wrong), we associate him to be a leader-No, Mazoka was. How can a presidential material speaks like a layman when commenting on conservation tillage” you know people plough with hands…..” plough with hands? Well the mines made him who he is, like many will will say he is blessed. The question is is wealth equated to intelligence or wisdom or knowledge to rule Zambia? Beware con-men in form of RB and HH.
Now to comment on the polls, if Lifwekelo today could be complaining of not being paid by Henri Banda, RB’s son, about organising youths in Mandevu, is it just common sense that he was paid to present that poll? No wonder the shaking, this has never happened to Simutanyi. He is a Judas of 2011. The voices of Zambians needing change will not stop. Look at the way ZNBC, Times of Zambia, Daily Mail, Watchdogs( sure ghalu anga khambe cha zoona and it becomes headline? wow! Zambia indeed is the Real Africa). Today Sata is very sick, tomorrow, Sata has collapsed, and this is given front page. Check the polls on InSight so that you reflect very well. Can you allow leaders who would like to copy the likes of Moses Katumbi to own our mines? Only Sata can stop this rot. God bless Zambia and Sata