It’s official! 20th, January 2015 is on – going by the nominations that have been received, vetted and passed by the Supreme Court. Whether people agree or not, there are only two front runners – Hakainde Hichilema (HH) and Edgar Lungu (EL). Going by the number of articles produced every day, it is clear that everyone wants to have a say on the political matters. This has been exiting. Zambia has a wealth of analysts and this is a variable one can use to determine the improving analytical power of Zambians.
I want to be part of this discourse and hence my writing of this short article. I have a number of concerns which I want the political authority to answer to. These centre on both economic and social issues. But for me to present a focused argument, I will for now focus on economic and specifically on investment issues.
We have seen an increase in investment pledges over the years. There is an unpublished report by a named institution which shows that some of the investment pledged to the Zambia Development Agency (ZDA) have not fulfilled. This raises concern over the capacity of ZDA in assessing these investments. HH has placed emphasis on this – and EL has been silent on it.
The second issue I table is the quality of investment. Has the investments translated in meaningful jobs?. Unemployment levels are still high in Zambia – and if there were any recent efforts these could be in the construction sector. But these are just ornamental. If there exists a job creation and industrial strategy,its results are yet to be seen. If one follows the arguments surrounding the way this was developed, it is clear that it was developed with limited consultation especially from private sector. And with this omission, I can guarantee that this will not work unless it is brought back on the table. Edgar Lungu has not made any express commitment to do so. Hakainde Hichilema seems to have made his tracks well covered and proposes a different strategy which will be driven by the principle of inclusivity. If he will stick to this, there could be greater chances of producing better outcomes than what we have seen before.
Unscrupulous investors and incompetence of ZDA and ZPPA
Further, quality should be seen from the context of application and behaviour among investors. This again takes me back to the issue of scrutiny and capacity in ZDA. We should not only be interested in the dollars that are dangled before us but to also look at the character and characteristics of some of these investors. Some of these investors have ulterior motives and precedence teaches us so. We seem not to learn and if nothing is done Zambia will be headed for paralysis. For example, a number of companies have fled or changed names after enjoying the tax holiday offered by ZDA. We have seen government under the PF expropriating ownership of Zamtel. If the arguments government presented were to go by, then the problem rests at the vetting level which is done by ZDA. More recently, I have been intrigued on how some investors are trying to suffocate government processes (both procurement and others) to try and get government contracts.
For example, how does government give (in 2012) Huawei under the Smart Zambia project a contract that is not tendered?
Forgetting that one needs a Zambia Public Procurement Authority certification to get financial aid,Huawei bulldozed through the Ministry of information and got a contract. At the time of applying for funds at a named bank, they were informed that ZPPA endorsement was required. The company found its way through ZPPA and got the certificate in September 2014 (almost two years after the contract was already issued). I have been troubled by the capacity and morality of ZPPA and some ministries.
Again, Edgar Lungu has been silent on the issue of bringing prudence in the granting and application of contracts under the leadership of ZPPA.
As for the opposition, HH and others, this has been their song and this brings comfort. Further, I gather that delivery under the much publicised optic fibre network is also questionable. Am sure senior management at Zamtel are also saddened by the delivery.
I just pray that the contracts awarded to all investors are done in a prudent and professional manner. And Huawei needs to redeem itself from this. South Sudan has tasted a bitter pill where government systems have been suffocated due to under hand methods. Please click here for more information.In this case Huawei, is accused of attempting to send a forged document to the president of export import bank of china on behalf of the minister of broadcasting of Uganda. Huawei is accused to have drafted a letter and sent it to the ministry to be placed on a letter head before sending it to china – a situation which could have resulted into tension between the governments of the two countries. The letter, whose intention was to postpone funding for a Digital migration project awarded to a competing company also from China– I believe, was intercepted by the minister of information. How crazy!!!!!!! Well it is my hope that this is not happening in Zambia.
This all issue hinges on capacity to scrutinize investment. We have hosted number investments in this country and we need to reflect and ask our-selves on what meaningful impact are these investments bringing in Zambia. It is important that come January 20th moving forward, meaningful reforms will be implemented so that we have a win-win scenario and not the imbalance we have.
By K.T
OPINION POLL (HH TAKES COMMANDING LEAD)
A latest opinion poll undertaken by Zambian Eye indicates that United Party for National Development (UPND) presidential candidate Hakainde Hichilema is in pole position to win the January 20, 2015 Presidential Election.
Hichilema garnered a staggering 73.5% from a total of 744 respondents, way ahead of his nearest rival, ruling Patriotic Front’s Edgar Lungu, who accounted for a modest 12.6% of the vote.
Political comic Alex Muliokela, of the United Poor People’s Party (UPPP) pulled a surprise after he took the third spot (2.2%)
ahead of seasoned politicians such as former president Rupiah Banda of the MMD,
FDD’s Edith Nawakwi,
Heritage Party’s Godfrey Miyanda,
FDA’s Ludwig Sondashi,
UNIP’s Tilyenji Kaunda,
NAREP’s Elias Chipimo Jr…
Folks
When I told you PF has sold the whole Zambian enterprise for a song, some PF cadres thought I am malicious. Well this article provides the evidence of what I have been on about PF ‘s dealings with China.
If the information about how Huawei has hacked the Ugandan and South Sudan Information system does not scare the hell out of you then you are in favour Chinese colonialism. Just look at the link below.
************
This Huawei story is very scary indeed. Thats what happens when you engage Huawei to rigs elections. They do not only end there. They in fact hack all the government information systems, and compromise the security of government secret documents.
PF ni ba…
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS 2011
1. M Sata (PF) got 1,170,966 votes
2. R Banda (MMD) got 987,866 votes
3. H. Hichilema (UPND) got 506,763 votes
Source: ECZ
Do you homework so that you don’t get disappointed in January otherwise you might be mislead by unreliable sources.
Real Data; Those are historical facts. what is important is to understand the behaviour of those numbers and how they will play out in the coming elections. Assuming total votes cast does not change significantly and that PF will loose a significant amount of that vote by dilution of its strongholds of LSK, CB, LP & N/M due to inroads made by UPND in those areas compounded by poor performance by ruling party in general. So the interesting part is to know where 987 866 votes amassed by MMD will go to. To assume that all those votes will go to one of the two leading candidates is a fallacy! Even the resolve to support UPND by MMD MPs will not guarantee that, but means a large chunk of that goes to UPND. This scenario translates to 38% UPND and 35% PF in a nutshell.
PF has failed to look at the investment issue in Zambia so its time to try other people with a better plan for Zambia.
Hi KJ,
Your article is already given answers to what should be discussed and a biased view.
HH has never worked in government and his words are meant to win votes and nothing more. He has never won any political post so it’s easy to say anything.
E.L is a principled lawyer turned politician who has believed that people who have ideas do not speak and their words can be seen through their actions.
“principled lawyer” do not swindle their clients of money bwana, neither do they steal money (got fired twice for stealing)
@John mwanza i beg to differ. Want actions of EL can you define as principled? What we have seen from EL is indiscipline, intimidation, violence and His rallies are devoid of issues, but insults, hate speech and calumny (just listen to kabwe rally if you dispute). John this is not what you can call principled; better bring out other reasons or issues not these. The profanity that has characterised the PF rallies is just a sign they are sinking; last kicks of a dying horse.
Mr John Mwanza I totally disagree with your comment. The status quo is that Mr Edgar Lungu has no ideas to talk about hence the silence. A president in this century needs to be knowledgeable and articulate! Please let’s not do Zambia a disservice by voting for Mr Lungu.
Who is KJ?
Between the two choices I would prefer new hands on deck with a combination of continuity where it makes sense and identification of the many many deserving of a farewell kick in the moonward direction.
Have an unpleasant flight to Uranus to all daylight robbers. Chuckle.
Ba Mwanza what principled lawyer say something else please, EL is being buldozed into the presidency by corrupt people.
Honestly with RDA @ State House & Nsanda as Chairman without any board of directors and without any audit, does any morally upright & average thinking Zambian expect PF especially under EL to attract any quality investments? Under PF, our beloved country Zambia is in very wrong hands. I bet the money that has been stolen through road contracts is by far more than the money that has actually been spent on road contracts. PF is unfortunately determined to continue with this thieving. How can we liberate ourselves from this PF grouping? By voting HH. How can we develop our country? By voting HH. How can we restore our pride as One Zambia One Nation? By voting HH. How can we get rid of pangas that are now being used even by street kids? By voting HH. PF equals pangas & pangas…
PangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangaPangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangaPangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangaPangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangaPangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangaPangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangaPangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangaPangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangaPangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangapangapanga. AS PEACE LOVING ZAMBIAN, THAT IS HOW I DETEST VIOLENCE. UNDER PF WE NOW EVEN HAVE CADRES WEARING CAPS LIKE WE ARE AT WAR. Zambia is peace loving country & this culture of panga is alien to us.
Net investment = Gross investment less replacement investment.
what this equation means is that investment is meaningful only if its at a level greater than replacement investment. Replacement investment (maintenance) is that which makes good depreciation of current capital stock like factories, roads, railways etc. Now the scenario in Zambia is that this capital stock has depreciated or at most remained same. Thus you find unemployment on the rise due to insufficient industrial growth to take care of the growing capital stock of labour (the population of people able and willing to work); while few industries are opening many more are winding down compounding the problem. until we can get net investments into our economy and increase productive capacity, status quo will not change.
Can u imagine a panga slicing through yo head! Ouch! & the cadre is running along Cairo Road hacking pipo whilst shouting Edgar chabe!Can u imagine a panga slicing through yo head! Ouch! & the cadre is running along Cairo Road hacking pipo whilst shouting Edgar chabe!Can u imagine a panga slicing through yo head! Ouch! & the cadre is running along Cairo Road hacking pipo whilst shouting Edgar chabe!Can u imagine a panga slicing through yo head! Ouch! & the cadre is running along Cairo Road hacking pipo whilst shouting Edgar chabe!Can u imagine a panga slicing through yo head! Ouch! & the cadre is running along Cairo Road hacking pipo whilst shouting Edgar chabe!Can u imagine a panga slicing through yo head! Ouch! & the cadre is running along Cairo Road hacking pipo…
And the Right Man is HH.
Only doubting Thomases / PF die hard Cadres can dispute this fact.
Agreed with you bwana!!!!!
PF is the biggest mistake to ever happen in zambian politics. And blame RB not Sata. If RB was serious about Zambia and not pleasing his family, we would not be in this position.
I will read it over the weekend. I am doing some work now. Next time include an executive summary
Aleisa Aleisa
HH 2015
Via UPND
Ifwe ni HH chabe, ewabako
The Zambia of PF-uncoordinated & ruthless cadres running with pangas & hacking helpless women & children while shouting “ni Edgar chabe”. Zambia of UPND: the whole country is as busy as ants working tirelessly with a clear vision of trying to catch up with the rest of the world, manufacturing sector teaming with thousands of jobs; u can resign in the morning & b employed in another job by lunch hr; every province having a fair share in the running of the country; no unqualified cadres in professional jobs; BY THE WAY, WHAT IS NSANDA BY PROFESSION FOR HIM TO BE CHAIRMAN OF RDA? DOES HE BELONG TO ANY PROFESSIONAL BODY? TO BE HONEST THERE ARE TIMES I FEEL IT DOESN’T PAY TO BE AN AFRICAN; THERE ARE ALSO TIMES I FEEL GOD CREATED MORE 1DIOTS AMONG BLACKS THAN ANY OTHER RACE
This paper could have been written better. Although the author attempts to analyse issues, the analyses lack evidence and credibility. The author does identify relevant issues, although he then goes on to muddle them up. In essence there is one issue, corruption. Unfortunately it is a Zambia problem, endemic. HH, EL and the rest are the products of the system and can’t tell wood from grass. The so-called experienced economists surrounding these candidates are failed economists, otherwise we would see research and many published works addressing our nation’s ills, such as our sister Dr Moyo has done. HH has done well in amassing wealth but has yet to show us where he intends to take Zambia and how. There are questions still on corruption and potential abuse of office. EL seems lawless.
I hate one thing about the so called”educated” people in Zambia.we are all arm chair critics.only 10% or less will go to vote.the kaponyas will be be there again to choose a president for us
@ Real Data, you have obviously used the 2011 data wrongly. The ground has shifted. Lusaka, Copperbelt and other areas have warmed up to HH more than they did in 2011. He will share in the PF/SATA Vote. HH will also share in RB/MMD Vote in a serious way. In fact this election is like UPND and MMD combining. Using your data and assuming HH takes just a 15% in the Sata/PF vote and he takes just 35% in the RB/MMD vote, HH will win by 39%, followed by EL at 37%. Both PF and MMD might shed off even more votes UPND (see below)
Party 2011 Movement 2015 %
PF 1,170,966.00 (175,644.90) 995,321.10 37%
MMD 987,866.00 (345,753.10) 642,112.90 24%
UPND 506,763.00 521,398.00 1,028,161.00 39%
2,665,595.00 – 2,665,595…
Poverty has blindsided a vast majority of voters and they won’t listen to any logic. people are going to vote for some character simply because they think he was anointed by some previous dictator who had no clue whatsoever governing the nation.