Political analyst Neo Simutanyi has observed Eastern and Lusaka provinces will decide the winner of the 20th January 2015 presidential election.
Dr. Simutanyi who is also Center for Policy Dialogue (CPD) Executive Director has told QFM News in an interview that this means that whoever wins the two provinces will also win the presidential election.
Dr Simutanyi says he is also of the view that while it is a fact that Lusaka province is a PF stronghold, if the province swings to the opposition, UPND candidate Hakainde Hichilema is likely to win the election.
He has also stated that the 2015 presidential race still remains a battle between the ruling Patriotic Front and the opposition UPND.
So Dr. in a nutshell you are saying Lungu is winnibg. This is a known fact but there are those in the opposition who think otherwise. Anyway we wish HH and his supporters a happy new and the best of luck for they really need it for 2016 elections in which we PF will teach the opposition a lesson again.
Viva EL Viva PF
I wonder what kind of nonsense this is. Everyone knows that the battle is between PF and UPND and only one of the two can win. Dr. Neo Simutanyi is stating the obvious.
Eastern province is for RB and Eddy ,we will teach the freemasons / satanist a lesson and send them into retirement for Good.
Happy New Year to All PF Members.
I am one of the topnPF senior members.
Most of us belive that HH will win the presidency with just a small margin.
We are also aware that our PF candidate will not win the elections.
Lungu will definitely win bcoz he has 4 big provinces. CB, Lsk, Nothern/Muchinga and Eastern. Add Luapula and part of Central… Chapter closed. HH will have massive win in Southern and N/W only. Western will be shared between HH, Mumba and Lungu.
@ Yaba; you have overlooked the issue of margins. CB & LK will be won by minimum margins, so N/M, L & E will most definitely go PF as S, NW and W go UPND. When you consider registered voters in these Respective strong holds, the vote will be par. So who ever wins 2 of the remaining which is CB, C and LSK and maximises votes in its stronghold, will be headed for victory. Remember this is the area with high proportions of informed and rational voters. To predict outright wins for any party in these areas is a fallacy.
Lungu all the way bakamba !!
An opinion is like an arse, everybody has one….simutanyi has just shown us his
Happy new Year fellow Zedians
I don’t think Eastern and Lusaka will decide the winner. Eastern will go to Lungu, and Lusaka will be 50-50. Copperbelt and Luapula will decide the winner, in that, if PF fails to win Copperbelt with a landslide then PF will have a rough time winning the elections. On the other hand, if HH gets 30% of the Luapula vote, then HH will win.
HH is on record meeting with witchdoctors asking them to throw spells on the people of Zambia so that they go for him. HH know that in Zambia we pray to a true God. This your last time to participate in elections according to your constitution. Lungu for State House.
MATERO MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT HON MILES SAMPA FINALLY JOINS THE KATONDO BOYS AND BOOSTELE TEAM
PF Matero MP Hon Miles Sampa reconciles undoubtebly with PF President Hon Edgar Lungu witnessed by Acting Republican President Dr Guy Scott.
This was at the event organised by Matero MP Hon Miles Sampa at Matero Community Hall. The Matero Law Maker took the opportunity to donate various Food Hampers to the vulnerable in Community.
MUSHOTA…..MILES SAMPA IS NOW OFFICIALLY IN !!!!
2015 VOTE PF (EDGAR)
I THANK YOU,,
Isn’t this the same guy who said MMD was winning the elections in 2011? His survey methods leave much to be desired. In statistics, we may question his sample size and randomization of the process. I am glad that this time around he is not being too categorical who will win, he is being wash- washy. The sign of a confused mind or one who doesn’t know what he is doing. This opinion poll is as useless and the Muvi TV opinion poll. Why do people do these kind of polls which are useless to say the least!
another way of expressing it; whoever, PF or UPND takes maximum advantage of the MMD leadership void and gets 2 thirds extra votes from what MMD got in 2011, will likely carry the day.
you are very collect lsk is pf and no doubt is Eastern. VIVA LUNGU.
@Chivwimbo
What is being ‘collected’ in this report?
AS RIGHT!!! EDGAR MEANS:- E-EDUCATED; D-DOCTOR; IN G-GOVERNANCE; A-ACTIVITIES; R- RESPECTIVELY.
DON’T BE CHEATED ZAMBIANS,
NO PARTY CAN PROVIDE FREE SECONDARY & UNIVERSITY EDUCATION & FARMING INPUTS.
JOB CHALLENGES ARE EVERYWHERE IN THE WORLD. IS IT THE PF WHICH CAUSES JOB CHALLENGES IN THESE OTHER COUNTRIES?
PF HAS DONE MANY, MANY & MANY.
I will be shocked if Lusaka which experiences violence from PF cadres votes for PF in large numbers.
And I’m not so sure that Lusaka can be termed a PF stronghold after late Sata won 2011. There’s another candidate in PF let’s wait and see how the votings will go.
You will not be shocked even you own heart knows very well that Lusaka is a strong hold for PF ,cry baby you are, you pro UPND.
This is the same Neo who predicted RB’s win in 2011 and he lost. I won’t believe him again. All I know is that EL will win the elections and not Ba Neo’s prediction.
Lusak received massive infrastructure project especially roads definitely PF is wining here
Ba Simutanyi we all know that PF will take both Lusaka and Eastern. UPND will take Southern and Northwestern. You dont need a rocket scientist or a sangoma to know that. PF will also go home with Northern and Luapula while central will be shared as follows : the eastern part of central Province will go to PF and the other half to UPND making western the swing province.
This doc is useless in our political despensation in this country.he cheated in 2011 saying rrupia is wining.now he is cheating HH.its clearr that Edgar will win. Lusaka,copperbelt,estern ,luapula,muchnga,northern ,Livingstone constituency,mongu central senanga and some parts of northwerstern . Making or gving lungu 58 percent
joze
Neo did not cheat. Rather, his prediction was inaccurate.
There is a difference between lying and cheating to to talk about making an inaccurate prediction.
Banthu ba Lungu cizungu cibvuta. It appears PF is riding on the wings of the unschooled.
Dr Neo is a big liar and he must know that PF love the party and not the candidate as UPND which loves only the tonga candidate only and this is the reason Neo being tonga is thinking his fellow tonga will win, shame. You did not see the rallies Hon Lungu had in Northern Province and I tell you that will be yhe same with Eastern Province and more especially with RB support which this space. No rigging at all as there is serious opposition. What UPND has been saying is the PF manifesto and they have abandoned their manifesto and this means thrir manifesto is not workeble.
Neo u r right on this one. edgar has eastern to himself n lusaka worse copper belt. I hope upnd will accept the result.
Most rural and farming blocks including a big percentage of eastern province won’t vote PF. The issue of poor agric planning will cost PF heavily. UPND has a lot of gains in copperbelt, Central part of eastern I think even in northern province. Lusaka province has already fallen to UPND. In short, it was rare to hear HH being mentioned in Kitwe and Ndola. This time, some people are talking about him. I saw the kitwe rally too. I have seen the previous ones too. A lot of ordinary people are not happy with the cost of living.
Its well known fact that PF is winning this election and we need no bogus researcher to tell us this. I humbly ask the HH-UPND camp to be strong before , during ,and after losing this election.
Thanks.
Peace and Prosperity to Mother Zambia.
In other words though mocking, RB is the decider,
Viva Eddy man of simplicity,man of humility and man of continuity
PF really has worked in 3yrs sure! this party can work
Those are facts and PF is surely winning 2015 elections!Lusaka shall vote in large numbers for PF.recall its Lusaka and Copperbelt voters who made Edgar Lungu PF president and we shall now make him zambian president!from what is on the ground and so many projects done by Sata,i have no doubts that PF gonna win!GO PF GO!
Simuntanyi has resurrected, with his never-ending litany of faulty predictions!
What are casual way to predict elections outcome!No analysis of why the winner should be the one amassing most votes in Lusaka and Eastern Provinces. We need a thorough analysis of what could be the likely outcome from each province and reasons for such an outcome should be explained and then conclude with why the winner will have to amass more votes in Lusaka and Eastern Provinces. Some factors that affect the outcome are;after rallies people need to be encouraged to vote for a particular candidate so party structures and campaigns from representatives like MPs play a great role,people in rural areas are not so mobile so those who voted and are alive are likely to vote again and if campaigns are “correct” these voters may play a reasonable role in the election outcome!
I predict that I will win the election.
Source: Me
I predict HH will win.
Source: Naysayers, better known as those who want something other than a guy in a pimp suit with a fondness for self election, court injunctions, flipping birds at his Prez, disappearing from Zambia like Houdini and keeping people waiting.
HINT: Only one of those two predictions is right on the money. Do you really want me in state house? Give me a red arrow and I will be Prez. Give the other guy a green.
Chuckle.
I don’t think Eastern and Lusaka will decide the winner. Eastern will go to Lungu, and Lusaka will be 50-50. Copperbelt and Luapula will decide the winner, in that, if PF fails to win Copperbelt with a landslide then PF will have a rough time winning the elections. On the other hand, if HH gets 30% of the Luapula vote, then HH will win.
We have changed the course of study. PF are not fair. Twaelenganya and have to come to our senses ati they will talk about fertilizer has been distributed on time when they have stolen our money from the sales of last farming season.
BETTER TO STAY IN A THATCHED HUT WITH LOVING AND PEACEFUL PARENT THAT STAYING IN A MANSION WHERE THERE IS HATRED, BEATINGS, CHEATING, HARASSMENT AND QUARRELS.
PF IS A WRONG GOVERNMENT WITH A LOT OF HATRED, EVEN WHERE THEY GO TO BEAT UP A SICK PERSON IN THE HOSPITAL, EVIL, EVIL, AND GOD WILL NOT GIVE US SUCH KIND OF LEADERSHIP AGAIN.
ITS UP TO THE ZAMBIAN PEOPLE TO CONTINUE SUFFERING UNDER PF.NO CONSTITUTION,HIGH FUEL PRICES,WAGE FREE,NON PAYMENT OF FARMERS,ETC ZAMBIANS LET US VOTE WISELY
If there is a any place which is difficulty to predict is Lusaka,Millennium radio callers opinion polls entered day 2 yesterday coming to an end on Monday Lungu has been walloped
We hear millennium radio every day.
Until my child told me that Dad you like this station yaku Southern province? Because my child sensed southern in the station.
PF supporters works hard to better our nation not to sit the all day firing insults on Radio Station. You better change for Zambians to vote for you.
Neither Eastern nor Lusaka provinces will decide the winner, but the one who will score the highest votes in six provinces (regarding Northern and muchinga to be one). So it obvious you know the next president.
Did you know that;
1.Anyone can make a call but not anyone can vote, one must be registered to vote
2.Anyone can call more than once but you can only vote once if you are registered
Voting goes with rules and regulation.
Making calls is similar to blogging
Sos, uli cha mano iwe! Ma mama
Zambians the man is saying ,Edgar C Lungu will win the elections.
Lusaka is not used to measure Cows but to lift up the punch( Pamaka bakamba).
Free advice for upnd. Your loss this month is not because people hate Tongas or upnd.1. Vote a legitimate candidate not based on tribe. 2. Change your masonic party ‘hand of glory’ symbol. Critics Google the quoted words. 3. This is a Christian country- don’t wish ill will on people- good always prevails over evil;VIVA PF, VIVA EDGAR LUNGU!
If you did not know, RB and Lungu are Moslems, that is why they easily got that USD 2M for campaign. They have a Moslem Agenda for Zambia.This Agenda is not new, find out RB’s West Africa connections, before you carelessly vote.Am from Luapula and am Christian too.These guys got Boko money, and because of tribal politics in Zambia, we are blind to the wrongs of our candidate.These two are putting this country in very serious spiritual problems. Please ready the books of 1 and 11 Kings and both books of Chronicles, and you will see what it means.Yes you can vote El, but be ready to face the consequences. There is so much more to RB going West Africa than meets the eye.The bigger picture is spiritual.Are you not surprised the El refused to sign social contract on constitution ?why?
The whole Zambia has realised that PF government lied to them with evidence still fresh in their minds. E Lungu does not even know what Sata stood for and who worked with him. All that worked with Sata are now either in UNPD, undecided or few think of MMD. Zambians want something new, promising and youngish.
That is the decider regardless of province.
LT, am not in Canada, this is representative of UPND in UK.
The correct analyses are here:
1. Eastern has 14% of the voters which cancels out with 13% of voters from southern.
2. The Western is decidedly UPND. Lungu ordered the arrest of Lozis as Sata commanded the Military to arrest and shoot dead everyone who says fa or enisha. Lozis are rarely cheated on such issues. Watch the space (Cancels with Northern)
3. NW is decidedly UPND. PF cant make it given the fact despite being mineral rich and generating more revenue than any average province in Zambia, Sata decided to develop his province and ignored them. They have never had a full cabinet minister under PF. They vote UPND. (Western) This concels with Muchinga
4. Central Province is currently 76% UPND. Lusaka is about50-65% UPND.
5. Copperbelt AND Lusaka and Luapula are the deciders.
Yapping is easy. Any fool can yap. In 2011 elections 16% of total cast votes were from Eastern Province. That made RB look a respectable vote pattern. He performed badly in Lusaka, Copperbelt, Northern and Southern. PF is assured of winning this election with RB’s vote bank from the east shifting to EL. Mwanawasa knew the importance of the east and called RB to come and help him. Mwanawasa won due to the east votes. History is going to repeat.
El will win with a comfortable majority.
We all know that Kafue, Chongwe Mandevu,Chilanga and the farming communities of Lusaka West are voting UPND. The other parts of lusaka are a toss up. Lungu is done!
We can only speculate based on certain indicators and our own preferences and political inclinations but the truth shall only be known after January 20th. For now we see huge crowds for both PF and UPND but this is not voting time. So lets take these crowds with a pinch of salt.
Otherwise indicators are there to speculate that HH or EL may carry the day. All we want are fair and credible elections.
Happy new year to all bloggers!
If hh was frm any other tribe, he ws going to win not frm a well known tribal province. it is very easy to decampaign him.
Also note that there is noway PF will win the suburbs of Rhodespark, Northmead, Olympia, Kalundu Munali, Chelstone Kabulonga and Chilenge. Lusaka is going to be a landside for UPND and Dipak secures Bauleni. Miles will call Matero depending on what he decides to do. Edgar might take Kanyama and maybe Chawama. Kabwata will split because of bo Lubinda. Either way lusaka is a Landslide for UPND
May the best candidate win. May the most sober candidate win. You can cheat some people sometime, ( 90 days fallacy ) but you cant cheat all people all the time and you cant cheat God all the time. There is a God folks and His opinion poll will say it. That is my prayer.
Leave Dr Simutanyi ALONE, People should learn to RESPECT orther people’s OPINIONS!
We must learn to CO-EXIST as ONE ZAMBIA ONE NATION, TRUTH PAINS, those supporting HH should SOBER before the election RESULTS ortherwise their SHOCK will be TOO PAINFULL!
NO WONDER they have started FABRICATING MALICIOUS RUMOUR over the PRINTING OF BALLOT PAPERS!
Where on Earth can our LEARND Dr CARNICIOUS BANDA hold a Press Briefing just SELL mere LIES!
The coming By Elections IS NOT ABOUT CHANGE but CONTUINITY!
Call Names BUT THIS IS the TRUTH on the GROUND.
In my TOWN!!
Leave Dr Simutanyi alone, predictions and polls are just that: they can be right or wrong depending on many factors. It does not mean that that the analyst or pollster is a liar. I will tell you the deciding secret one week before the elections.
Do UPND cadres really think?how can one say HH will get 30% votes from Luapula where he got 1 700 and PF 151 800?plus all constituences are under PF except 1 under MMD?all these MPs are campaigning for PF.plus Sata has done a lot in Luapula!HH may get even less 1 700 which he got in 2011 from Luapula!plus copperbelt or Lusaka cant be 50-50 for HH and PF!hey UPND are dreamers!I CANT WAIT FOR RESULTS ON 23/01/2015.AM SURE MANY CONFIDENT UPND CADRES WILL FAINT!GO PF GO!
@ 33 Eddy
Will be interesting to watch. Reality, however, is that Sata is not Lungu and Lungu is not Sata!
BETTER TO STAY IN A THATCHED HUT WITH LOVING AND PEACEFUL PARENT THAT STAYING IN A MANSION WHERE THERE IS HATRED, BEATINGS, CHEATING, HARASSMENT AND QUARRELS.
PF IS A WRONG GOVERNMENT WITH A LOT OF HATRED, EVEN WHERE THEY GO TO BEAT UP A SICK PERSON IN THE HOSPITAL, EVIL, EVIL, AND GOD WILL NOT GIVE US SUCH KIND OF LEADERSHIP AGAIN.
LUSAKA TIMES CLASSIFIED ADD
WE ARE LOOKING FOR A 15 TON TRUCK TO HELP US MOVE HON EDGAR C LUNGU FROM KABULONGA TO STATE HOUSE,PLOT 1 LUSAKA ZAMBIA. PLEASE IF YOU HAVE A RELIABLE DOUBLE AXLE 15 TON TRUCK, CONTACT THE KATONDO BOYS AND THE BOOSTELE TEAM’….THE DATE FOR MOVING INTO THE STATE HOUSE IS JANUARY 25,2015
Please don’t bring Ackim Ngosa’s Truck which got stuck in the mud whilst ferrying his nomination supporters.
January 20 vote PF (Edgar)
I thank you……
TONGAS inflicted a mortal injury on UPND when they declared that the party (UPND) could only be led by a Tonga. And so they are just wasting their time and resources by sponsoring Icilema to be a presidential candidate.
I really don’t know on what basis UPND thinks can make inroads on the Copperbelt & Lusaka from nowhere. Remember the time HH had some rallies is when PF was having its democratic stuff and so HH should not cheat himself. Can the death of loved and great leader in the name of SATA really separate CB & Lusaka from his party PF? I don’t think so honestly speaking. It’s wishful thinking on behalf of UPND to think they can get Mr Sata’s strongholds just in three months, because of his death!
CB is PF stronghold so is Lusaka no doubt about this. The guys in Lusaka and CB know very well that UPND has nothing to offer, more over its a party for TONGAS only. Why pretend to vote for a club which discriminates you based on your tribe?
Viva Edgar Lungu
HH has a big advantage in this race, he has the mps from mmd, thats eastern m western, muchinga, northern and central provinces. Also from independent mps, and also from pf mps. Definately he wins, cause these guys are not only endorsing, but campaigning heavily for HH.
RB disappointed many serving MMD MPs because he never listened to them and was undemocratic. Certain current PF MPs were initially on MMD’s prospective candidates but RB picked his own preferred candidates. The unadopted individuals were immediately adopted by PF and won both parliamentary and presidential elections. That’s how RB lost elections, voters punished MMD and voted for PF.
Today, if RB endorses E. Lungu, serving MMD MPs will campaign for HH and punish RB and E. Lungu again and the little respect he earned will fizzle away completely among Zambians. Already his pension was stopped by PF govt for re joining politics and this will be worsened when PF loses power.
Only you Zambians will decide your destiny, a country full of illiterates is bound to collapse. Go for it, a lawless country Zambia has become because of politicians, Zambia is currently an animal farm.
Its so good that God has given us the ability to dream. We will wait for reality after the ballot is cast. But if PF will win this election, it will be a completely different party under E L and that may signal the end of HH’s political career
Katondo boys,
Lungu has no furniture, you mean going back to eastern? The aunties shackles as seen on ZWD can only accommodate Lungu’s bed and crates of beer.
Carrs
Lungu will be our next President.
Do you know how many people with the last name Lungu that i know personally? Do you know how many friends with the last name Lungu that i have? ,,,And am not even from the Eastern Province…on the contrary i don’t know any one with the last name Hichilema and this means i don’t have any friend with Hichilema as a last name. Now this tells you and me something about this Gentleman called Edgar….
Well, i wont ask you where your home town/village is,,,that will be too tribal i guess….
Anyway, Miles Sampa has said he will provide transportation to move Edgar’s belongings from Kabulonga to State House,,,free no charge.
January 25, house warming party..PLOT 1
I thank you
Kaondo boys,
So your friends are tribal, they are voting based on tribe, shame. This is the reason Zambia poor, If I am Lungu , Chikwanda, Banda, Sata or something like that then I am a credible candidate. We need more education for our people, I am comfortable but when I see people the suffering Zambians are going through that makes me feel bad, based on your democracy analysis then I would say Zambians deserve the indiscipline that is prevailing in the country. Look at Lungu auntie”s house in the village, I would not even let a pig live in that house. If he can not take care of his auntie, what makes you believe he has a heart for the neighbor, charity begins at home my friend, wake up and forget the tribal tag .If that is what Zambia wants who am I to change their way of life?
Simutanyi, I wonder where you’ve gathered courage to talk about politics. Your dignity was questionable when you prematurely stated that MMD presidential candidate, RB would emerge as a victor. Your reasoning was backed with your again imaginary statistic figures from wishful thoughts.
Ka simutanyi, uleyikalefye if you have nothing to contribute to political sphere prevailing at present in the country.
There are only two provinces that can make a candidate emerge as a victor and these are COPPERBELT and LUSAKA. They’re swing provinces due to highly populous with about 4.8 million people. This is a third of the entire population of Zambia.
Copperbelt Lusaka
EL 69.7 votes. EL 58?3vote
HH 30.3. HH 41.7
LUSAKA FOR SURE HAS BEEN TAKEN OVER BY PF WITH THE RECONCILLATION OF EDGAR AND MILES,
EASTERN PROVINCE IS SO RESOLVEDE FOR EDGAR. SIMUNTANYI ANALYSIS IS CORRECT. PF WILL EMERGE A WINNER. THE VOTING PATTERN WILL BE AS FOLLOWS:
SOUTHERN= UPND
WESTERN= UPND
NORTHWESTERN=UPND
CENTRAL=UPND
COPPERBELT=PF
LUAPULA=PF
NORTHERN=PF
MUCHINGA=PF
LUSAKA=PF
EASTERN=PF
POPULATION DENSITY:
COPPERBELT, LUSAKA, VERY HGH EASTERN HIGH=WILL OUT-STRIP UPND SECUTERED FROM THEIR FOUR STRONGHOLD PROVINCES
EMERGING WINNER PF WITH=44%
UPND=38%
REST PARTIES WILL SHARE WITH FDD AND MMD TRAILINING BEHIND.
LET ME CLARIFY THAT EASTERNERS DONT VOTE FOR A PARTY. THEY ACTUALLY VOTE FOR A PERSON. THINK OF HOW THEY RESPECT RUPIAH AND IT JUST NEEDED RUPIAH TO ENDORSE EDGAR. NOW THAT THAT HAS TAKEN PLACE ESATERN IS PF.
NOT ONLY THAT THERE MORE BEMBAS AND NGONI/TUMBUKAS IN LUSAKA.WETHER TONGA PARTY LIKES OR NOT THESE TWO TRIBES WILL VOTE FOR EDGER LUNGU.WHO WANTS TO BE RULED BY A TRABAL PARTY WHO INSULT BEMBAS AS SATANISTS.HELLLLL NO EFINTU NI LUNGU.WE NEED ONE ZAMBIA ONE NATION NOT JUST SUPPORTING COZ THEY WANT ALSO A TONGA TO RULE.ATAAAA BANE
Analysis or no analysis Edgar Lungu is headed for landslide victory:
1. Copperbelt, Lusaka, Luapula, Eastern, Muchinga and Northern all for EL
2. southern, Western and N western HH
3. Central PF and udpn will share
Reasons
EDGAR LUNGU
1. pf have delivered in 3 years
2. It is still pf term
3. pf president is honest and humble
4. 2015 budget already in place/approved by majority pf parliamentarians
vote for hh
reasons:
1. MWANA WAKWESU SYNDROME (TRIBALISM)-Southern
2.
the man of God tb Joshua has prophesized the winner for 20/01/2015 elections….
WHO ARE WE TO THINK OTHERWISE
There is an article on Tumfweko or a Prophesy by the Man of God Prophet TB Joshua that the ruling party in Zambia will win the Presidential by Election. Zambian watchdog have refuted the Prophesy and agree with the Malawian Prophet who also have prophesied that their HH will carry the day come 20th Jan,2015. please people go on Malawian watchdog if you will anything like that. Zambian watchdog are rely desperate for they candidate whom they know very much that he cannot win an election in Zambia on the ground but on an online papers like theirs and fake opinion polls. come 22nd Jan, 2015 you will cry wait.
2015,should be for Edger Lungu,then 2016 for HH.Lungu may win this Presidential election because that is how things should be even we Zambians we know that.Should HH win this Election then it will by chance not by planning and from the look of things so far chances are their for HH to win this Election but as I said 2015 lungu may make it because its for him on the other hand HHs chances are many and he may also win.