Political scientist Neo Simutanyi says the August 2016 elections puts UPND leader Hakainde Hichilema as a hot favourite to win the poll.
In a statement posted on his Facebook page, Dr Simutanyi said Mr Hichilema is in the most unassailable position as hot favourite to win the 2016 presidential election.
“Granted the PF has won most of the parliamentary and local government by-elections held since Lungu assumed the presidency, but that may not reflect the true position regarding public opinion towards PF’s governance record,” Dr Simutanyi said.
He observed that incumbency advantages and a perception that it is of no value voting for the opposition has often persuaded voters to vote for the incumbent.
“We saw this under the MMD, that despite a good run in by-elections, the MMD tumbled in the 2011 general elections. This coming election will be a two-horse race, between the ruling PF and the UPND. The real contest will be between Edgar Lungu and Hakainde Hichilema,” he said.
“A kind of political re-match. Of course the election will be held under a new constitutional and electoral regime, in which the winner has to garner at least 50 percent plus one of the votes. If the voting patterns of the last five elections are anything to go by, the PF will need to take the competition offered by UPND very seriously,” Dr Simutanyi said.
He added that while it is too early to know with utmost certainty the intentions of the voters ahead of the 2016 general elections, the fractures within the ruling party point to serious problems that will influence voting choices.
“As I see it, three factors will work to favour UPND. First, without Michael Sata, the PF has a very weak and most unattractive candidate in Edgar Chagwa Lungu. Second, an economic crisis in the form of job losses of over 10,000 on the mines as a result of poor mine tax laws, debilitating electricity shortages/load-shedding; high mealie meal prices coupled with shortage of mealie meal; high exchange rates and high cost of living as a result of high inflation rate of 22.5%.”
“Thirdly, a divided and fragmented ruling party as a result of the succession battle to replace Michael Sata,” he said.
Dr Simutanyi observed that President Lungu’s preference for MMD leaders to loyal PF leaders may have alienated his potential base of support in the Copperbelt, Lusaka, Luapula, Muchinga and Northern provinces.
“Indeed, we have witnessed defections by former MMD leaders to PF, notably, Dora Siliya and Kapembwa Simbao who regained their seats on the PF ticket and are now part of Lungu’s political entourage. To be sure Lungu has completely changed the complexion of the original PF, which may be responsible for the current disenchantment within the upper echelons of the ruling party.”
He said the on-going defections from the PF and endorsements of the UPND are informed by these developments.
“As is customary these defections and endorsements have been dismissed as insignificant. Those who have left the PF have been branded ‘bitter’, ‘tribal’ and inconsequential. But I contend that the defections and endorsements are significant and of consequence if those leaving were influential and highly respected within the party and society at large, if they are leaving on matters of principle and if they have a discernible constituency,” he said.
He said the resignations from government by three deputy ministers within three months should be a matter of grave concern to the stability of a regime.
“Further, endorsements of HH’s candidature in the August 11 general elections from prominent individuals, including former vice president Guy Scott and eleven respected MMD sitting members of parliament is not a small matter which can be wished away. It has eroded public confidence in the PF and President Edgar Lungu’s leadership and suitability to continue in office,” he added.
He also charged that the meeting held on Tuesday 5th April, 2016 at the Cathedral of the Holy Cross and attended by leaders of 18 political parties, including President Lungu and Mr Hichilema has not done anything to stop violent confrontation between supporters of the two major parties.
“This is a bad indictment on Edgar Lungu, as it indicates that he is either unwilling or unable to command law-enforcement agencies to maintain law and order and protect citizens of the enjoyment of their rights as enshrined in the Constitution of Zambia. My view is, there was no need for the inter-party meeting on political violence.”
He said it is within the power of the President of the Republic of Zambia to enforce law and order and to ensure that every citizen enjoys their political and civil rights as enshrined in Part 2 of the Constitution of Zambia.
“For failure to decisively deal with violence, Lungu has breached his oath of office and in some countries would have been liable to impeachment. Since Edgar Lungu’s ascent to the highest position in the land, we have witnessed claims from senior PF leaders of how he was the ‘chosen one’, how the PF won the election with a ‘landside’ and how the UPND was whitewashed, using Dandy Crazy’s rendition kolopa.com. It is important to put these claims into perceptive. It is erroneous and misleading to claim that Lungu’s 2015 victory was a ‘landslide’.”
He said former Vice President Guy Scott described the result as inconclusive and close to a draw in political terms.
“Despite former president Rupiah Banda’s support, PF’s support only increased by five percent from 2011, while that of UPND increased by more than 25%.”
We know Hakainde to be a favourite in all the theoretical polls. But the real electorate ALWAYS reject Honourable Hyena (HH) for the bustard that he is, a cheap thief and scum.
Very logical analysis if only voters can wake up to reality. PF can’t run this country and ECL is a shadow of a leader; he can’t motivate he nation with any direction of the economy except downward spiral and midiocrity
Neo, don’t forget that the electorate want to identify with a leader of national character, humility and caring. Someone from humble beginnings but with good political career. Such is the character PF supporters have seen in the meek, humble Edgar Lungu as opposed to pomposity and hot air from an inexperienced alarmist crook (HH). What a cheap turd and douchebag and you Neo are cheapening your credentials by using tribal emotions to evaluate Lungu, a clear winner against (HH) a perpetual loser who’s afraid to lose to Nkombo should a party convention be held. You cant sell (HH) anywhere. He’s a cheap turd from the toilet
@ Kudos you are better of not commenting coz your comments don’t make sense. It doesn’t add any value. No value addition in business terms
I HOPE THAT’S NOT IN A POLITICAL SCIENCE LAB EXPERIMENTS, WITH SOME “TEST-TUBES & BEAKERS” THAT HAVE A SHAPE OF A CADRE. LOL
AND I HOPE EVERY SINGLE VOTER IS A POLITICAL SCIENTIST LIKE MR. NEO
Thís clown is back?………..kikikikikiki yaba! Even in the last elections you gave reasons as to why HH was going to win, what happened? Ifintu ni Lungu.
Zambians we need to conduct a political scientific research on chagwa, let’s see him run a pf in opposition for just a year, we need to see if he got stamina to marshal masses outside government, without him having a mental and physical breakdown.
One hopes that Zambians have learnt a lesson, and vote for people with leadership credentials. If the country vote for PF again, it will take 30 years (not an exaggeration) for Zambia to be put on the right path.
Trying to show that one actually reached G12 level of education,
A quiz Chemistry quiz for Running mates was Organised.
Moderator: …Name one gas that you know!
Bo Inonge Wina: …Oxygen gas.
Nevers Mumba: …Hydrogen gas.
GBM :… Tear gas.
Moderator (shocked):… GBM, I am giving you one last chance!
GBM : … Fabregas!
Very interesting poll & analysis but the only reason we are kicking out Kadansa is because he’s a failure. Some of our compatriots have admitted it was a mistake taking him off kachasu in Chawama but we are all agreed & decided that he needs papalaza (if you know what I mean). That’s back to Chawama.
These guys counted wrong the last time as well … the only real opinion that counts is that of the smart people of the Zambian Enterprise!! Polls don’t run this country, the Elites don’t run this country, the Media don’t run this country, Diplomats don’t run this country!!!
We the people run this country and this August we will retire HH for good!!! He will make history as the first Zambian to have lost the presidency 5 times in row … I am B R Mumba, Sr and I approved this message.
I endorse ECL and all my family members are voting for him!!
DREAM ON BA Neo Simutanyi. EVEN IN LAST ELECTIONS, SEING PF IN DISARRAY, POLITICAL ANALYSTS STARTED DREAMING LIKE YOU HAVE STARTED DREAMING. THE WORST SIDE OF OUR ZAMBIAN ANALYSTS IS THAT THEY COPY AND PASTE FROM ACADEMIC TEXTBOOKS. THEY CAN’T CONDUCT A PRACTICAL RESEARCH. ADDITIONALLY, AND MORE OFTEN THAN NOT THEY EVEN MAKE INFERENCES OUT OF WHAT THEY DISCUSS AT THE MINGLING BAR (THINKING IT IS ENOUGH SAMPLE SPACE FOR RESEARCH- BEHAVING LIKE THEIR STUDENTS) TO MAKE CONCLUSIONS OF THEIR ACADEMIC THEORIES. GO INTO RURAL AREAS FOR PROPER RESEARCH.
This guy was friend of hichilema at unza. He is biased of course. And you have to remember he said the same last time. He was wrong. Polls in Zambia are quite complicated. There are so many variables to take into consideration. Just because you masquerade to be an expert doesn’t make you one. There failure to even make the slightest of an attempt to use numbers to support his assertion is glaring and telling. You can’t just stick your finger in the air and use your emotions to guess the poll results. I can pen an article that would articulate why PF will win. That does not make right. So next time the good Dr. attempts to use voodoo to predict results, try to use properly analyzed statistical figures. Numbers don’t lie, the right numbers that is.
Simutanyi is again back with his fake polls. This time he does not even seem to have pretended to have conducted even one. He is just speaking from without. Am sure he is looking for money or a job from Hakainde, the way he decided to massage figures when he predicted MMD was losing and yet PF went on to win the elections. We know how he was paid handsomely from State House for that fake poll that put MMD ahead after a phone call from Rupiah urging him to conduct the poll.
But PF you are really dunderheads, not long ago, to be precise, last year before the Presidential by elections, the same Simutanyi you are calling names today because he has predicted that HH is winning was your darling. Just accept facts. Eddy has failed our country miserably and it is only fair and just that he is voted out, period.
EXCELLENT ANALYSIS. WHAT MORE SHOULD WE ADD? ALL WE SAY IS THAT THERE IS NO LEADERSHIP IN PF. ZAMBIANS HAVE REJECTED MEDIOCRE EDGAR LUNGU. PEOPLE WANT CHANGE, PEOPLE WANT HH AND HIS UPND TEAM. VIVA HH VIVA! VIVA UPND VIVA! ZAMBIA FORWARD. IJANZA KUMBELE BASA.
Look at the sirname of the ***** saying under 5 hh will win?? Tonga. These *****s with tribalism awe mwandi. This august alot of these tribal group will die of bp
Very logical analysis if only voters can wake up to reality. PF can’t run this country and ECL is a shadow of a leader; he can’t motivate he nation with any direction of the economy except downward spiral and midiocrity.
Even a “shadow” is fair respect. This guy cannot even run a tavern.
BR Mumba,peter and other PF cadres should know that it is an open secret that HH won the 2015 election,Lungu survived through cheating just like what happened at mulungushi rock of authority were he won by raising up pangas.Even with massive rigging for example1. people started voting in Muchinga when votes were being counted in most parts of Zambia.2.Most results sheets sent to Lusaka were not counter signed by polling agents but Mambilima was allowing them to be tallied even when voters disputed them examples from North western.This year 2016 will make sure no such no sense happens again.The judiciary also helped Lungu win by making sure they blocked RB.Later RB helped to fund Lungu.All this was not mere coincidence.
A president with 27 MPs
“..To be sure Kainde has completely changed the complexion of the original UPDN, sorry UNPD, er..UDPN..(forget it) which may be responsible for the current disenchantment within the upper echelons of the opposition party…”
Sounds true..!
Its an interesting analysis and would be good to see more of these type of analysis on television.
@Mr Kudos-ask us in the intelligence & security wing(OP),we have told Lungu everything on the ground.Neo is just trying to win a name over a social event which is well known.Why do you think Davies Chama & Katele Kalumba are quiet?Lungu is not going to make it dear,Mwaliteta heed to our research & you might see Kambwili following suit using Dora as the reason!We fear who the president will react from 16th May when the campaigns start!
Ati in the op na flag ya ku US.Economic refuge just come back and vote
These flags that you see do not indicate the location of a person especially if you are using a mobile phone.
It is now profitable for PF members to remain with the Edgar than it was in 2015. In 2015 Edgar had little if any government resources. He was a nobody. Things may change slightly because he now has his fingers in the government cash box. These analyses are also deliberately not talking about our culture and customs, including tribalism in the villages where they can only vote for their “own”. We are a long way to have a Tumbuka stand in a typical Tonga/Bemba land and still win.
So Peter Ngonsa, you are a dunderhead! Sit down! Kikikikikiki! You know nothing!
Nothing new here as we all know HH is winning this time around. You don’t even need prophecy or analysis at all. Kaminamisa is going back for Jamason to Chawama.
Nice try though.
Ba Neo, you said last time that Sata can not win, he won . Go to hell with your dreams. HH we know ,he wins all opinions polls , please do not excite him because he will die with shook.
Whether we like it or not HH will be a force to reckon with in this years elections. Underestimating the force behind UPND and HH in particular in this August polls is doing it at your own peril. Don’t say you were not told
UPND and HH have been winning as far back as I can remember, but are still in opposition
Yet again they will win and still remain in opposition. Such is under fivr trade mark
Good analysis. Zambia needs to move forward and develop, reduce poverty, increase well nourished children, reduce crime and violence etc
Yaba, ba neo babwela nakabili. Kuti waseka mwe…
Neo Simutanyi’s prophecy will come to haunt him. It is based purely on assumptions and lacks any empirical evidence back it. Typical of those with no background in statistics, he has not mentioned even a single number to demonstrate how HH is a hot favourite to win in August. I now understand why he failed his PhD at Cambridge but still wants to masquerade as Dr. Simutanyi.
Kkkkkkkkkkkkkk, I was almost saying that on the PHD issue. I just don’t understand why he continues to masquerad as a PHD holder when he failed
Getting hot boss. Face the truth. It doesn’t take Neo to even tell you. He has however, helped you cement your thoughts
You can’t fail a PhD naimwe….nangu nibu cadre. Some comments….yaba. These villagers with smart phones.
I meant to say: “It is based purely on assumptions and lacks any empirical evidence to back it.”
I haven’t seen any empirical evidence in your post either. Counter his argument with your statistical data. Besides, he could have used a qualitative approach to his research. Not all research need to be quantitative to reliable and valid.
Oh please! Neo work up dear, have you been dreaming again? HH will be clobbered to and fro. Your analysis is purely academic. Don’t forget that the perpetrator of violence is HH himself and the Zambian people know that. Scott never supported PF on the 2011 polls. Zambians are resilent people who can never be taken advantage of not even by ECL or HH. There is only 15% truth in your political analysis rhetoric, and which is that it won’t be an easy road for both candidates on account of the 50% plus 1. This clause sends chills even to ECL himself. I rubbish your supposition cautiously.
You even not convinced about your own argument because you know Dr.Neo is right. Anyway they say never say die right? But some things are just not worth fighting for. Strategise Surely you Lungu can’t win you an election this time around.
Hate speech
Belittling other tribes (majority)
27000 difference in 2025
Bread now K8, sugar K26, soap K12, saladi K96, kabunga K130
Inflation 20%
Massive borrowings
Huge youth unemployment; retirement age increased to 65 years
Corrupt thieves
Can I still go on? And Kudos says we vote for him and RB?
You and goons like you have been thorns in my flesh ever since you thought HH can reign over the righteous. I will go and tell it on the mountain that leadership is from God not from the devil. I curse you little devils! Anyone but HH.
@14.3 Thorn in the Flesh
Calm down. Leadership in Zambia is strictly from the Devil. KK, Kafupi, except Mwanawasa, RB, the dead thug and the current convicted thief, do you think the above came from God? You have got to be kidding! Zambians have a penchant for voting in power only the most useless and dishonest people. They have a chance now to rectify their blunders and bring sanity to the nation by voting UPND. If they miss this opportunity it will never come around again. Fortunately, short of rigging massively, HH has clinched it already. It’s on the ground all over the nation that corrupt and clueless vision-less drunkards will be ejected from power.
To give such statements, its best to support them with statistics. For example, one must say, out of a poll of 1000 people, 67% said they would vote for UPND or vice versa. You can’t just say, momentum is flowing this way, so that is the way it will be. It never is.
I guess one has to be brave to voice such claims. I don’t know if any of you guys has seen another analysis on WhatsApp which gives statistics on ‘possible’ results from the 10 provinces and it has ECL winning. Whoever peened that one wasn’t brave enough to put his/her name to it. So who should we believe?
He could have used observations as a tool. He mentioned that PF increased popularity by 5% and UPND by 25%. Have you thought maybe he used a Mixed Methods Approach to his study? What is your counter study on the subject? Other than condemning Dr Neo, give us your statement, then we will judge you both using the same measurement. As it stands now, you have not contributed anything to our worldview on the subject.
YAH! BUT UPND MOMENTUM HAS ALWAYS BEEN THERE. THE GREATEST UPND MOMENTUM WAS IN LAST YEARS ELECTIONS WHEN THEY DID NOT WIN. SO, MOMENTUM ISN’T A NEW THEORY IN UPND. TROUBLE IS UPND TAKE ZAMBIANS, ESPECIALLY, RURAL DWELLERS FOR F00LS. IF ONE IS TALKING OF MOMENTUM, EVEN ON THE OTHER CAMP MOMENTUM TO USE NEGANEGA FORMULA HAS BEEN ACQUIRED AND IT IS AT IT’S GREATEST ANXIETY. IT HAS BEEN USED IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF ZAMBIA. OTHER PARTS ALSO WANT TO USE IT.
What empirical evidence do you need for you to understand that our economy is in reverse? Blind support tei suma!!! HH is getting it this time around.
It is these sorts of misinformed and unresearched analysis that earned Muvi TV negative perception in the public eye when they tried to grant HH a stolen victory like you are doing right now. Yes your analysis is theoretical considering that you have not carried out any pre poll research. In no time the Muvi TV and the post will soon start their bogus opinion polls, but man, meet you at the polls where the actual choosing of leaders take place. Remember, HH has already cried foul 5 times claiming that the Govt will rig the election. You are misleading disgruntled HH goons already. Give us a break dull.
Deep down your geart you know HH prevailed over Lungu last January. You see, ECL grabed the PF seat by false election at Mulungushi. The results took a week to tally and a mere 2% margin was registered. To have caused tensions for a 1.5 year term would be miscalculation and a sign of desperation. Patience pays and now this year we are back and the 1 year term has shown the Zambians who Ed really is as a leader. We will make a choice based on how he has run the country. This time there is no sympathy votes, no bootlicking MPs, no bootlicking councilers, but Ed and his team versus the rest.
A thorn in your butt flesh, yes, and a good rugged one…nakatenge. I bet you can’t even sit or sleep properly. But that serves you right because in place of reason you have chosen folly.
Zambians, variables can be quantitative or qualitative. Utuma distance universities naba Cavendish, awe mwandini. This Neo negro has given his analysis, naimwe just give us yours. An analyst gives his/her opinion, naimwe give us an alternative analysis.
Do you know what a qualitative variable describes, if I may ask?
Ecl has never been zambia’s favourite. Those that were key players in pf have left. It is now a party for lightweights. Pf will be defeated in round one by UPND.
let the predictions of facebook/opinion poll victories begin! we have seen all this hullaballoo before sorry
This is good analysis, not hearing from a false prophet about their predictions which is blasphemy
@Thorn in the Flesh-calm down mune,remember the 20th January By-elections!Continue wanting to hear what your hears only wants to hear till the election results are announced!
prophet of doom is back in the name of Neo. I Don’t Envy You Anyway
It seems History will repeat it self.
RB was a mupiani president who took over from LMP by being left with instruments of power
ECL came on the helm in a similar fashion Like how RB ascended to power.
The down fall of RB came during General elections ,So will be the case with you know who.
take it or leave it.those whose of have eyes will see but those who deny to open there eyes will sink with the boat when deluge reach it ‘s climax.
Ba neo your analysis is very trible. You are just bitter that pf will win again. Who does not know where you belong? Its plain truth. You will die together with your fellow freemasonist when lungu wins. Mark this!
I don’t.
Neo is a brain that any political party seeking power should ignore at their own peril. There is no party in Government on the planet that is a favorite to win elections because they are making difficult decisions on behalf of the people. All opinion polls for the last election in Great Britain favored the opposition to form government after a hang parliament. Conservatives defied all opinion polls to win that election. HH will lose because of the two reasons which Neo has not covered in his analysis;
1) For obvious reasons HH has clearly failed to state whether he will separate politics from secret societies.
2) 90% of UPND top leadership were part of the persecution of people Eastern / Northern Provinces between 2001 – 2008. These people have been heard saying “we want to finish…
What a bunkum kind of cheap talk! Just prepare because you might breakdown under severe emotion due loss.
1. Which secret society did HH agree to belong to? If you know it and can prove it, why don’t you come up and let ECL and all PF know….they have the instrument of power and command the police & armed forces. They can surely unraval this secret society and expose HH.
2. Eastern and Northern provinces were persecuted? What is this, some new PF propaganda to try and hoodwink voters on provincial lines. Zambia is such a mixed society that it is hard to entice a tribe to fight another. Almost 80% of Zambians have an intermarriage in their family tree. Upto 99.6% of Zambians have relatives (extended family) in at least three tribes. So this tribal rethoric can’t sell anymore.
Continue kolopa, people have moved Forward and are now shining.
I totally agree with Neo and all bloggers against him are not giving any convincing arguments. I keep asking myself who in Lungus camp will be his campaign manager. Someone with a national appeal like Scott and GBM. Like it or not the latest political developments have given the UPND a national character. No wonder why even RB is silent. He probably knows that it’s game over for Lungu and is busy trying to realign himself with the next winner for self preservation.
“..To be sure Kainde has completely changed the complexion of the original UPDN, sorry UNPD, er..UDPN..(forget it) which may be responsible for the current disenchantment within the upper echelons of the opposition party…”
Sounds true..!
Comment:What is it that HH will do that PF has not done? or what develoment will HH bring or plan to bring that PF has ot thought of or done?
Whom are you asking and how is this a comment?
How can you say “comment” when you are asking a question.
Besides, you do not need to type “Comment:” before every post. Just type and we all know it is your whatever.
This clown of a doctor is back. Don’t worry he always misses. He has never predicted the correct. If anything, he means the opposite just like in the last two presidential elections.
This story and the title are contradicting each other. Lusaka times what are you up to?
I guess these are the people that cause HH to develop diarrhea when ECZ starts announcing results.These opinion polls especially from Bantustan ve always been misleading and false.Going by 2015 opinions,HH was Hot favourite by 80%,but we all know what reality gave us.HH lost to someone who was not even known to the masses.This time,ECL is a known commodity and will even enjoy privileges of incumbency.So,to say HH is an outright winner is a big FALLACY.Its ECL nafuti nafuti!!!
Just like RB was a known commodity and enjoyed incumbency previliges in 2011. Yes to say HH is an outright winner is a fallacy, but that is not what Dr Neo said.
So since you brought up the term “outright”, are you having a nagging feeling that HH will win outrightly?
” To be sure Lungu has completely changed the complexion of the original PF,…”so Simutanyi wished PF carried a tag of regional party which has dogged the UPND for a long time thereby helping to consign them to the opposition status for decades. As @ 13,Maikalange has pointed out,where is the empirical evidence that HH is winning? The so called defections and endorsement where all almost there in January 2015 when HH had campaigned for 2 months and Lungu only managed to campaign for 3 weeks but still managed to win. The 50%+1 does not remove the advantages Lungu has of having rebels leaving him early and this time getting more time to campaign than before. Don’t forget that PF is also receiving defectors from UPND and MMD! There is nothing “hot” favorite about HH when you look very…
@32. Please give empirical evidence that HH is not the Hot favourite.
@32,Mama the empirical evidence is right in Simutanyi’s writing. He is basing his conclusion on assumptions that are not validated by a scientifically conducted research that touches a cross section of the Zambian voters landscape,supported by agreed statistical sampling methods. He needed to show us the samples he took in all provinces in areas representative enough of the voters population. The defections he is talking about is about individuals who do not constituencies with them. Load shedding,high mealie meal prices,mines job losses do not affect rural dwellers who may be happy with farming inputs,timely payment for their produce,good roads,schools and healthy facilities. We can go on and on..!
This guy Neo Simutanyi is a doctor? Isn’t he the same fellow who projected a landside win by MMD in the 2011 elections? Just google Neo Simutanyi and you will see how his projection in the past have been. Its either, the sample he uses to come up with his results is faulty or he does not know how to sample at all. Did he sample in Southern province, North western and western provinces? or did he sample only his relatives? Simutanyi is not a guy to take seriously. He is a confused fella. He should live sampling to serious people who have done statistics and not political science. You do not sample by a show of hands.
Quite the contrary. The projection by Simutanyi was that, the 2011 election was going to be a close one. It ended-up being that way. In the absence of a 50% plus 1 clause, the narrow win, which could have gone either way, carried the day. PF’s better than usual performance in its then, non-traditional strongholds such as Western Province, did the trick. Incontrovertibly, the shootings in Mongu, were MMD’s undoing.
Continue dreaming with your leader HH, MR BONANZA GBM, MUZUNGU OPUSA and kakwindi ka SAMPA, we shall retire you. don’t you know that its an insult for Tonga to rule over Bembas, Easterner, lozi, lenje
HOW CAN YOU WIN EVEN THAT ANALYSIS ECONOMIC AND DEMORAPHICS YOU ARE STILL NO SELLABLE EDGARS IS AT 68% IN FAVOURITE AND HH AT PANTRY 30% ONE COULD HAVE SEEN THE PICTURE BY NOW WITH MOST MPS WHO DEFECTED BUT THE OPPOSITE IN POL OPINION IS TRUE
EDGAR HAS ACTUALLY RISEN BY PERCEPTION INDEX TO 68% AS AGANST HH NOW AT 30% WITH TRENDY VOTER PARTTE LUNGU HAS A COMFORTABLE VOTE AGANST HH OF 68% AND HH ONLY ANAGING NOW A 30% THERE HAS ACTUALLY BEEN A WEIN IN ELECTROL VOTES FOR HH IN THE REGIONS
THE GBM FACTOR IS NOT MOMENTUS AND HAS LOST A CLASS LOOK AT THE WA HE STAYS A SAMPA AND GBM IT WILL TELL YOU A STORY
So this is the empirical evidence PF cadres were looking for? A random sampling of percentages from a halfwit brain of a G9 failure who cannot format his script from all-caps to sentence toggle.
Here you go PF cadres enjoy the fake data.
In previous elections, the level of anger among the electorate has helped set the stage for victory by the opposition. It was the case in 1991 as well as in 2011. In 2016 I see only a scanty collection of smiling faces for newly enthroned president Lungu. It would seem he has failed to impress. The majority of the electorate must be weary to recommit themselves to his mediocre style of leadership for another chaos-ridden five year term.
THE GBM FACTOR IS NOT MOMENTUS AND HAS LOST A CLASS LOOK AT THE WA HE STAYS A SAMPA AND GBM IT WILL TELL YOU A STORY THAT EVEN GBM HAS REALISED THAT THIS HH IS NOT SELABLE
YOU CAN NOT HE AN AFFECTIVE GEMETRIC VOTERS TURNOUT RATE OF 78% IN ON REGION FOR YEARS AND STILL STAND AT BELOW 40% NATIONAL AND STILL BELIEVE YOU CAN WIN IT
THE MODEL FOR THE DOCTOR IS FAKE AND NOT RELIABE EDGAR WINS
Just look at the name:NEO SIMUTANYI-A BANTUSTAN-AMAZING!!these bantustans fail to understand that majority voters do not like their HH thats why he even lost to little known Edgar Lungu in 2015!!TRIBAL HH CANNOT DEFEAT MIGHTY PF-MARK MY WORDS!!WE TRAVEL A LOT ACROSS ZAMBIA AND PF IS STILL VERY STRONG!!WE WILL SEE ON 11/08/2016!!GO PF GO!!
You and your membe are too dull.Bembas and all Zambains are Bantu speaking people.You follow our languages weather bemba or Tonga they have the same tone describing nouns (Names)For example Insoka (bemba)Nzoka(tonga)Lesa(bemba)Leza(Tonga.So who is a Bantustan and who is not?To hell with your backward thinking.HH is wining because people with names like Mubanga Mudenda,Kalaluka Natasha and Chinyama Chileshe will vote for HH.Reasons we want to unite Zambia.No tribe is bigger than the other.VIVA HH
GUYS DO YOU KNOW THAT GBM IS MR BONANZA FOR UPND IF YOU PLAY WELL IN THAT FAT ALBULT YOU CAN WIN NGOMBE AND BECOME RICH LIKE HH THE INSIDE THIEF WHO STEAL FOR ZAMBIAN FINTU LUNGU I WE KABWA HH
SIMPLE ASK HIM FOR DATA FOR PROVINCES THAT SHOWS HH WILL WIN AND COMFIRM HIS REASONING SAY FOR LUSAKA CENTRAL COPPERBELT EASTERN NORTHERN LUAPULA AND OTHERS LIKE NORTHWESTERN
PF blogers must realize that it is not the number of provinces that determine the outcome because some provinces are too small like Muchinga how many registered votters are there.What determines is the actual number of votes one receives .
Appear quite dark, well well back for more money in the pocket lol
I for one will give EL a vote. I also campaign for him and hope that the ones that say will vote for him will actually vote for him come 11th Aug. All the best to all the candidates>may the best one win.
Neo has always predicated that the UPND will lose the election and it came true. Lets see if he will be right on this opposite turn.
These so called Drs in economists and advise they give to HH and this is he advise they wan to give governments
Advise based on their macroeconomic policies on the idea of a natural rate of unemployment and how that affects Labour in Zambia is often flawed .
I hope he explains the NAIRU to people as a factor in macro-economic policy decision making The stable Non Accelerating rate of Unemployment NAIRU simply doesn’t hold and is a misguide of employment economics
Let him clarify his advice to HH because it’s not correct based on NAIRU
Mr. Simutanyi’s prediction of a likely HH victory is highly fallacious because it rests on very shaky assumptions.
1. Job losses of over 10,000, on the mines: This is factually wrong; the number of job losses is 4,000. In fact, Mopani is investing $1.3 billion between now and 2021 in three major projects: the synclinorium shaft in Kitwe, Mufulira and Kitwe Deeps, and concentrator. In fact, Mopani has even started recalling some of the 4,000 miners who were laid off in view of the anticipated expansion of mining activities.
2. Electricity shortages/load shedding: Quite apart from the fact that most Zambians now know the reasons for the load shedding, most have also adapted quickly by switching to alternative sources of energy. With the possibility of Maamba bringing 600 MW to the national grid, not to mention Itezhitezhi’s 120 MW by June, what happens to the load shedding assumption?
3. Mealie meal shortage: This is an illusion; the shortage is artificial. Why is the smuggling of thousands of tons so rampant if we have a deficit? I doubt if this shortage will persist beyond April.
4. Inflation: If the price of mealie meal goes down, given that mealie meal is a major item used in the computation of the inflation index, to what extent is it going to be a factor in the August elections?
You are making that comment thousands and thousands of miles away from home and you think you know it all. Your poor unschooled relatives (PF cadres) back here home are dying from not only AIDS but hunger. Come back home you botch and see if you can even make it here. We have seen most of you guys coming back home with nothing but good English to talk about.
I am right here in Zambia, currently on the Copperbelt, not in the Diaspora, .
YOU TRIBAL KACHEMA YOU DONT EVEN FEEL ASHAMED.LET ME TELL YOU FACTS WHY LUNGU WILL WIN
1- 50+1 hon hyena will not manage to reach this hot point pf has entered western ,north western,southern provinces him is targeting individuals gbm,lupando,sampa
2-personal character lungu smiles and approacheable hh is not
3-lungu is a democrat while hh is a dictator
4-hh is bostiful,selfish,tribal,conman,talks without thinking,not a christian, his up bringing not known even by himself,etc
5-there more unanswered questions on hh than on lungu
Ati ichikwaka bachimwena kumampalanya.
6-this is seventh de v catholics or tonga v bemba
1. PF are the ruling party, how come they have to enter a province now? I thought as a ruling party they are supposed to be there already.
2. Really….?
3. Lungu ferried cadres to endorse him as PF president. The PF convention was flawed. They sought an injunction against Sampa at midnight….
4. ECL entered church after a long drunken time for the first time while in State House.
5. Which questions? It depends on who you are asking. Surely I cannot ask you about reliability and validity issues in political analysis.
6. Very immature and 12th century thinking. Refer to 5 above.
I like your name: jkalusa it rhymes with Chagwa Jameson Kalusa, are you related?
point number 2.Lungu smiles, what kind of smile does your Lungu produce with his bucal cavity? His dental formular is an presidential.lol Ati Lungu smile na meno panja.
Neo this is now 21:25 just go and sleep with your foolishness
@jkalusa point no 6 is not good otherwise am with you on all the other points am for ECL
So from all that junk you only pick one that does not work for you because you are Adventist? The same spirit that inspired the first 5 comments inspired the 6th.
Neo this is 21:34 please go and sleep
The best part of it is that we have also gone to school. Neo is basing his analysis on a preconceived idea. The reason advanced are not PF made. PF didn’t create shortage of meal in CONGO DR, Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe. Lastly the issue of tribe should not be ignored. Bembas still feel PF is their party. Only few bitter and visionless Bembas will vote HH. North Western and western will not vote HH the way they do becoz of the development they have received. Pipo will vote like Tongas this year
Did you say you went to school? Now tell Mama which kindergarten you graduated from.
Let me guess, your analysis is better than Neo’s…..
Opinion polls do not matterin Zambian politics, we have what is called donch kubeba! Things can be bad in the country but we have villages who just vote because sugar daddies had visited them. So it is really hard to know which way the election can go. I see foresee a situation were the opposition win the presidency while the ruling party takes most of the seats! Watch this space, there is ichinfulunganyo ahead!
Can’t agree more with you Dr. If there is no significant shift between now and August then the game is over. It is even wishful thinking to talk about a re-run under the current conditions. PF is finished and will never rise again in the the future of this country as they have no one to pick up the pieces after the August loss. Edgar like Rupiah will not be able to manage PF in opposition. He does not have the stamina to stand the pressure of being in opposition.
Well said Dr Neo. That’s why Zambia needs brains like you. Don’t listen to PF cadres/bloggers. That’s why they the don’t understand such high level issues because of cadre mannerisms.
Remenber 70% of voters are not affected by mealie meal,fuel, bread,sugar,electricity,tax,cooking oil,high prices mention it. rural zambia what counts is feriliser,maize marketing not those wild dreams hh is having he will be shocked. This time its gonna be the worst for hh.
*Remember wina panamba two, lungu panamba one,chishimba position3, lubinda 4,dr chilufya 5,mwale 6,
Winger ngoma 7, shamunene 8, kalaba 9,kaingu 10 (master dribler) ,mwila 11
wina Player Women coach/ captain to be continued
Upnd give a lineup we see from those rejected political prostitutes
Upnd will be white washed 170 to 23 mps
Go change your diapers now @Chagwa Jameson Kalusa
@ jkalusa
Where did you get 70%? It appears it’s a number plucked straight from a beer sodden brain. Will you kindly please sober up first before posting something here?
Neo Simutanyi, coming out of the woods to eat the honey?
Neo is a upnd kada this Tonga party will never win an election Mark my words and prove me wrong on 13th August 2016. There is no mood of changing government…
check out the stupidity.y of the Post in their Thursday editorial. Clearly Mmembe has exposed his inability to think like a human being, he thinks like a hyena. Mmembe says KK should be allowed to retire and not be used by Edgar. Is Edgar using KK? Only a heart *****. Can think like that.bEdgar was invited to attend an important anniversary of KK secondary school and Luba mission in Chinsali. Being the good, humble, caring and warm hearted leader that he is, Edgar thought that since he was flying he can share that comfort with KK who cannot comfortably get there by road. Edgar knows that KK comes from there and hisparents are buried there. So he offered KK a ride with him. Now who would not want to pay his last respects to the grave of his parents, especially as KK is in the last days of…
You have to be evil to understand how Mmembe thinks. Now who would not want to pay his last respects to the grave of his parents, especially as KK is in the last days of his life? Certainly KK was very grateful for this and blessed Edgar for the gesture. But for a non-human like Mmembe, whose thoughts are always evil, he thinks like a hyena or witch, and sees evil in paying last respects. This Mmembe will just throw his parents in the sea for the Sharks or crocodiles to eat so that he does not see them nor their graves ever again. Sorry you evil Mmembe, us humans see great thoughtfulness in Edgar’s gesture. Just continue sucking blood and mating at Bwinjimfumu and leave us with our beloved Edgar and our KK.
Opinion polls are a common phenomenon in the the developed West. This one here, however crude, adds quite a bit of flavor to the Zambian political scene. Greatly appreciate.
With a few exception, in much of Africa, opinion polls are a nameless wild animal, never known to exist.
Much like weather forecasting, opinion polls can be wrong. It’s not that, which diminishes their value.
Zambians need to wake up….it’s a colonial attitude to still subscribe to blind solidarity.
PF under Chagwa have been a political experiment gone wrong. Mealie meal shortages…are we in a time machine..back to the ’80s??!
Wake up and smell the coffee…and love yourselves enough to get rid of this joker and forever be against mediocrity!!
Being humble doesn’t fill our bellies.
Peter and Kudo will die of heart attack with such news. Right now your party is somehow divided, you sidelined a lot of people and they are about to have their revenge. You have lost some people and you will probably lose more people because you don’t care about people. Let not forget the last election showed that you lost a lot of support and HH gained more support. So going into this election with the new constitution is going to be very tough especially with a bad economy. Also the people you said are not a factor are going to be out there counteracting your progress and seeing to it that you don’t make it. The numbers are surely going to hurt you because HH is going to have more bodies vouching for than you.
Using the total number of registered voters, based on data from the Electoral Commission of Zambia does not give the impression of HH as a hot favourite to win the 2016 elections at all. Just reflect on these figures. The total registered number of voters as at 31st December 2015 is 7,974,138. Of this number, 5,020,967 or 63 percent are in PF strongholds broken down as follows: Lusaka province – 1,243,589 (15.6%), Copperbelt province- 1,179,505 (14.8%), Eastern province – 897,553 (11.3%), Northern province – 666,058 (8.4%), Luapula province – 605,560 (7.6%), Muchinga province- 428,702 (5.4%), total- 5,020,967 (63.0%). In the UPND strongholds there are 2,185,756 or 27.4 percent of the registered voters broken down as follows: Southern province- 1,074,328 (13.5%), Western province- 635,560…
The total registered number of voters as at 31st December 2015 is 7,974,138. Of this number, 5,020,967 or 63 percent are in PF strongholds broken down as follows: Lusaka province – 1,243,589 (15.6%), Copperbelt province- 1,179,505 (14.8%), Eastern province – 897,553 (11.3%), Northern province – 666,058 (8.4%), Luapula province – 605,560 (7.6%), Muchinga province- 428,702 (5.4%), total- 5,020,967 (63.0%). In the UPND strongholds there are 2,185,756 or 27.4 percent of the registered voters broken down as follows: Southern province- 1,074,328 (13.5%), Western province- 635,560 (8.0%), North-Western province – 475,868 (6.0%), Total- 2,185,756 (27.4%).
The wild card is Central Province – which can go either to UPND or PF – with 767,415 or registered voters or 9.6% of the total registered voters. What this means therefore is that for UPND to win under the current arrangement of 50 percent plus one, they have to obtain 3,987,071 of registered voters from the PF strongholds. The question is: is it possible for them to get such a large number of voters from the PF strongholds? Even if you give UPND all the registered voters in Central Province, they still fall short. Given such statistics, what is the basis of Simutanyi’s prediction that HH is a hot favourite to win the August 11 elections?
Typical of Simutanyi’s biased analysis is his tendency to be selective in his choice of evidence to buttress his arguments and to accentuate only the negative aspects of ECL’s reign – job losses on the mines, inflation, load shedding, mealie meal shortages, etc. – all of which can be debunked with facts. He doesn’t talk about the construction of new schools, colleges, universities, health facilities which are now in every district, and the roads he drives on. He even glosses over the construction of the architecturally magnificent Mongu – Kalabo Road in his own home province! And this is what some bloggers are calling a good and objective analysis?
@mama i ‘m not related to changwa jameson kalusa me i m a tribal colured the only ref to meet lunda and bemba needs and make sure change the way we look at each other. U practice tribalism we shall be on you bembe,tonga,lozi,lunda,ngoni, just be yourself. It appears to be on hh bcoz he is the first offender
#mentioing 7de v catholic its a fact the two know it and zed shud not run away from it. If i had power i wud start by bring the two together as a way to solve violence
#tonga v bemba bring all bemba and tonga chiefs plan how they can avoid brown envelops which make them pick sides and accept promises making them as political prostitutes namba one.#please any bad thing air it to free the nation but dont cheat but what u see
This guy is like a soothsayer or a TB Joshua of sorts, making these amorphous targets and hoping it hits one of the various moving targets. That aside I hope, as a researcher, this guy has improved on his protocols and variables to give a reasonable prediction. Just ask Nate Silver for help, if you will…
this ***** does not base any analysis on mathematical models. He just put down his own reasons why he will vote for HH. What a shame, a whole ‘professor’ thats why our country is backwards because of bufoons like him
this chipuba does not base any analysis on mathematical models. He just put down his own reasons why he will vote for HH. What a shame, a whole ‘professor’ thats why our country is backwards because of bufoons like him
RUBBISH ARTICLE, Predicting a win for your fellow TRIBESMAN which you did even during the last election. Ni Lungu chabe.
This so-called analysis is highly subjective by a biased individual. Goes to show where this chap’s heart is – Un Patriotic NeanDerthals (UPND). Ichikolopo chilelolela, come August.
This is not the first time this man is making such, the analysis is making as if he is not a Doctor. So biased, the price of copper is not controlled by the PF or even other copper producing countries. Anglo America, retrenched about 85000 people from there operations. Does it mean that it is because of un favourable taxes. the answer is NO. 3500 people were laid off from Mopani because of copper price, if the taxes regime is not conducive , could Mopani plan to reinvest in Zambia today. See Moodys report since ba UPND you pay much attenton to the outside world. But for sure you can’t see it.
Price of meal mealie, you let your outlets owned by your richman, buy in bulk and store the commidity in there warehouses, hence creating artificial shortage, more especially in the copperbelt so…
Ladies and gentlemen,
And the name is Neo (me) Simutanyi (I refuse) that Hakainde (he will not go through) Hichilema (the lame one)
When did Neo resign from UPND?
FAKE DOCTOR FAKE ANALYSIS. FAILURE BACKING A FELLOW FAILURE.
This so called Dr failed to pass his PHD and should stop misleading Zambians who are generally happy with the developments in the country.Challenges caused by global economic shocks should not be blamed on ECL……As President with his team,his performance so far has been impressive.
Neo Simutanyi’s opinion polls have never been accurate,in 2011 he said Sata was loosing, in 2015 he said Edgar would lose but what happened??? Most Zambian voters want a leader they can identify themselves with and unfortunately HH is not that leader
No wonder you are a scientist. Nice analysis but I know what Kambwili and PF cadres Would say. He is Tonga!
Zambian analysts cannot be relied upon, I just do not see how UPND will move from 27 MPs to about 65 required to win a general election. The election will be very close but what I see is that the wave from Eastern Province will propel Edgar Lungu back to plot one. UPND has not calculated this. Also, UPND may do better in Kasama central but will still fall behind PF here because it will perform very badly in the rural areas of Northern Province. Central Province will be very close if not even, Southern Province will go to UPND although the PF will recover its margins in Livingstone to reduce the deficit. North Western Province and Luapula will cancel each other out. Western Province will be interesting because this time around, Inonge Wina will be on the ballot paper.
Zambians WILL NOT ELECT A REGIONALIST TO RULE.
Tongas look at tribe before anything else.
Indeed what places ECL in poll position to win? Without the backing of Anderson K Mazoka HH the failed five time candidate is not saleable and remains unattractive. Second he has shown to be a weak and intolerable character who hates criticism even from close allies. Third the tribal tag doesn’t rest look at the person who has run this commentary. Fifth the desperation shown by HH of late in embracing rogues and failed politicians will come to haunt him. Fifth he missed his best opportunity in 2015 when he gave up the ghost of leadership to a non-existent and unknown ECL. Sixth the tag of a direct profiteer from privatization proceeds makes him untrust worthy . Seventh his questionable religious belief ie Mason tag sticks and doesn’t resonanet with believers… lastly apart from SP he…
THERE ARE LESSONS TO LEARN DR IN BEHAVIOURAL ECONOMICS GENERALLY HUMAN BEINGS HOWEVER WELL TRAINED IN SOUND MODELLING OF RATIONAL BEHAVIOUR AND CHOICE WILL STILL MISLEAD OTHERS AND WHAT IS CALLED IN BEHAVIOURAL ECONOMICS “‘ MISBEHAVIOUR CONCLUSIONS ” BASED ON EMOTIONS OR TRUE MISCONCEPTIONS AND NOT UNDERSTANDING DATA AND NOT JUST ANY NOISE DATA BUT ACCURATE DATA
THERE IS NO WAY HH WILL WIN LIKE LORDIST HERE HE IS EVEN VERY RISK AVERSE BUT ITS 68%
WITH LUKULU FINISHED AND MONGU ROADS AND SHOPRITE NIL CHANCES FOR HH THERE
Umfweni imwee!Analysis does not mean a person is prophesying. It is an opinion of a person.Frankly speaking,what ever development has taken place in some parts of the country Lungu has nothing to do with it.He has only slowed the pace of these developments that could have uplifted our country.Since he took office,things have been deteriorating,people are suffering,crying and complaining every day.PF does not have a leader!That is the problem.For ECL to win this elections,let him only sit down and ponder the ways to steal or rig the elections,otherwise,he has no share.We have seen he has even started lieying to people that he will give them free interest loans K2000.00 each.Liar!The PF only wants to collect the details of the Zambian people to come and use it (the data) for stealing the…
It is personal to single out one candidate as favorite. What is the criteria so that logic and consistence can be verified? Whereas it is correct to consider HH as genuine aspiring presidential candidate based on his stability in the opposition ranks, it is equally correct to acknowledge that the UNZA boys are here to stay. One of the reasons why BB failed to cross the street was the perception that he was an outsider. That is no longer the case. Voters are being asked to choose between two formidable election machines: PF or UPND. What more if they worked together? That would also add value to national politics. Coalitions are not that bad. They represent a country in transition where right and wrong are not as clear as all that.
From grammar, you can tell that it is the same PF cadres sending posts with different names. PF cadres, MMD left mealie meal at K35.Though I am PF, I know UPND is the only vehicle that can take us to the promised land. Thanks Neo for giving us an analysis that we already know
Where
Even if the world renowned political scientist put him ahead, we know how to retire him. Give him all endorsements, Have all big gun defections among them the jealousy and envious ones but come 14th August someone will cry elections were rigged, I end.
Ba Neo kuti bakulepulembafu kukuseka. Even in 2011 Neo told us that MMD was going to win but what happened is now water under the bridge. Yes hakainde is going to win in southern, western and northwestern provinces but the overall winner will be ECL.
Even just reading through the comments here and counting the votes for and against, I don’t see either ECL nor HH as hot favourite. These elections will be extremely challenging for political parties, firstly for the obvious reason of 50% +1 threshold. Secondly, the political mistrust between the Zambian people and the candidates, for HH the tribla inclination, while for ECL the tough economic environment caused by collapse of world metal and oil prices ( raw material prices).
The rural areas have a very different way of looking at the economy and this has to be understood by all political parties.
I for one will vote for ECL as I have full understanding of where we are and where we are going.
Ba neo you are 99.09 % right, let us wait and see what august has for the mighty Zambians. UPND wil again win this episol, this time no matter how these poor frends (pf) wil attempt to rig these fourth coming general elections. lt wil be a clear white wash for this failed GRZ. Viva UPND,viva Zambians.
Well said Comrade Kudos, the one key point many are forgetting is these economic challenges the nation is facing are being faced by many African nations and the world over, also the biased voting pattern we observed in the last election where there was clear voting on tribal lines has awoken many in the nation to vote so as to encounter such practices. As mentioned before mealie prices are expected to rise very soon, the dollar will drop to between 8 and 9, jobs will be created with Glencore’s USD1billion investment. Otherwise we are still on track to winning!
ECL 2016 nafuti!
we have had such statistics from Mr Neo in the past non have come to pass he sampling is done wrongly probably in one region
I now agree that you are a fake doctor. You remember in the 2011 elections your pangolin polls was against sata but sata won the elections