moodys

Moody’s Investors Service (Moody’s) last night downgraded Zambia’s long-term issuer rating to B3 from B2 and changed the outlook to negative from stable.

According to the press release issued by the rating agency, the downgrade on the issuer rating was driven by greater-than-anticipated fiscal slippages in 2016 leading to material liquidity pressures and significant challenges to finance the budget deficit. and the prospects of further deterioration in Zambia’s debt matrix in a lower growth environment, with the government debt likely to exceed 60% of GDP by 2018.

According to the press release, the negative outlook reflects the view that risks are skewed toward even greater fiscal slippages and slower fiscal consolidation, which creates uncertainty over the magnitude of the funding challenges and deterioration of Zambia’s debt profile over the rating horizon.

The Kwacha has suffered a marginal set back, having opened trading last week on a strong. The Kwacha is now trading at K9.25 up from last weeks K9.13 per $1.00

Below is the full press Release

Moody’s, Rating Action Press Release:

Moody’s downgrades Zambia’s issuer rating to B3 with negative outlook

London, 19 April 2016 — Moody’s Investors Service (Moody’s) has today downgraded Zambia’s long-term issuer rating to B3 from B2 and changed the outlook to negative from stable.

The downgrade on the issuer rating was driven by:

1. Greater-than-anticipated fiscal slippages in 2016 leading to material liquidity pressures and significant challenges to finance the budget deficit;

2. The prospects of further deterioration in Zambia’s debt matrix in a lower growth environment, with the government debt likely to exceed 60% of GDP by 2018

The negative outlook reflects the view that risks are skewed toward even greater fiscal slippages and slower fiscal consolidation, which creates uncertainty over the magnitude of the funding challenges and deterioration of Zambia’s debt profile over the rating horizon.

Concurrently, Moody’s has lowered Zambia’s long-term foreign-currency bond ceiling to B1 from Ba3, its long-term foreign-currency deposit ceiling to Caa1 from B3, and its long-term local-currency bond and deposit ceilings to Ba2 from Ba1.

RATINGS RATIONALE

RATIONALE FOR THE DOWNGRADE

Zambia’s credit metrics have deteriorated beyond Moody’s expectations since the agency downgraded the rating to B2 in September 2015. The negative trend in the credit metrics is expected to continue for at least two years, given the combination of shocks to the economy, the track record of missed fiscal targets and the absence of efforts to achieving sustainable fiscal consolidation. The downgrade to B3 is intended to capture this ongoing weakening of the government’s balance sheet and related liquidity risks.

FIRST DRIVER: GREATER-THAN-ANTICIPATED FISCAL SLIPPAGES LEADING TO LIQUIDITY PRESSURES

In 2015, Zambia’s fiscal deficit reached 8.1% of GDP, up from 5.6% deficit in 2014. Moody’s expects that without measures to rein in expenditures, the fiscal deficit will remain elevated and reach 7% or more of GDP this year. The notably higher-than-projected power deficit (1,000 MW vs. 560 MW estimated in September 2015) has already necessitated costly electricity imports while sharp depreciation of currency increased the need for fuel subsidies. These factors have contributed to large spending overruns, which, if continued, are estimated to amount to 3% of GDP for the year. Lower for much longer copper prices, together with rain shortfalls and electricity shortages, have led to subdued growth and put additional pressure on the budget through weaker revenue.

Zambia’s high funding needs in the coming months and years present a significant challenge for the government given the country’s relatively underdeveloped domestic capital market and reduced risk tolerance of international investors. Domestic borrowing costs have risen sharply over the past year with yields on 1-year treasury bills reaching 28% in March. These high domestic borrowing costs and the impact of a weaker currency on cross-border borrowings have given rise to interest payments consuming an ever larger portion of budgetary revenue. Interest payment-to-government revenue ratio will likely near 20% this year, up from 8% in 2013. The general increase in yield rates on Government securities was largely attributed to the higher than projected fiscal deficit and the tightened monetary conditions.

Zambia’s financing options in the international capital market are limited given the investors’ reduced risk appetite and the yield on Zambia’s ten-year government bond at 12%. While still above three months of imports, foreign exchange reserves declined to US$ 3 billion in 2015 despite the sovereign bond issuance that year. Moody’s projects that in 2016 forex reserves will fall to $2- 2.3 billion, below three months of imports.

SECOND DRIVER: RAPID DEBT ACCUMULATION AND THE PROSPECT OF FURTHER DETERIORATION IN DEBT METRIX

The second driver for changing Zambia’s rating is the expectation that public debt will reach 56% of GDP in 2016, notably above Moody’s expectation of 45-50% a year ago, and will rise above 60% by 2018. The government domestic arrears accumulated in 2016 point further to emerging debt sustainability challenges. While in 2015 kwacha’s rapid depreciation was a key driver of the rapid public debt accumulation, Moody’s expects the elevated fiscal deficits in 2016 and 2017, in combination with lower growth, to drive future debt-to-GDP accumulation, which is now close to median of B3-rated peers.

Although the government plans to reduce the fiscal deficit to 4% of GDP this year, in part by cutting capital expenditures, and adopt further consolidation measures in 2017, Moody’s believes that given the track record of missed fiscal targets, deficits are likely to remain higher than targeted.

Sustainable fiscal consolidation will be challenging against the background of persistent structural weaknesses, particularly electricity shortages, and low copper prices. Moody’s latest growth projections assume just 3-3.5% growth in 2016, compared to our forecast of 5.2% in September 2015. This puts additional pressure on the debt-to-GDP ratio. Moody’s projects a return to +5% growth after 2018, as it expects the electricity shortages to be much less pronounced, while mining is projected to rebound due to current investments and cost reducing measures.

The government has recently announced its plans to negotiate an IMF program, which would help not only with the liquidity challenges but also with putting public finance on a sustainable path. However, a formal agreement has not been reached so far. In Moody’s view, the process is likely to be prolonged and only take –off after the presidential elections scheduled for August this year.

RATIONALE FOR THE NEGATIVE OUTLOOK

The negative outlook reflects heightened uncertainty about spending in the run up to the August elections and uncertainty about the liquidity and funding position of the government over the next 12-18 months.

What could change the rating up/down

Downward pressure on Zambia’s rating could develop due to: 1) a further increase in electricity shortages or drop in domestic copper production that would cause a material impact on the government’s fiscal position or the country’s external position; or 2) larger-than-expected twin deficits and a strong upward trend in the overall debt burden; 3) a continuation, if not worsening, of liquidity pressure causing a further abrupt reduction of growth-supporting capital expenditures; and 4) a sustained decline in foreign currency reserves to below 2 months of import cover that amplifies the country’s external vulnerability to shock.

While an upgrade is unlikely in the near term, should the trends motivating the negative outlook dissipate or reverse in the next 12-18 months (for example, the fiscal deficit contracts to less than projected and in a sustainable way, uncertainty regarding government funding is reduced, and/or the current account returns to surplus), outlook could be stabilized. Zambia’s credit profile would likely remain in line with peers at the B3 level, including other commodity exporters, justifying a return to stable outlook.

Prompted by the factors described above, the publication of this credit rating action occurs on a date that deviates from the previously scheduled release date in the sovereign release calendar, as published on www.moodys.com.

GDP per capita (PPP basis, US$): 3,811 (2014 Actual) (also known as Per Capita Income)

Real GDP growth (% change): 3.2% (2015 Expected) (also known as GDP Growth)

Inflation Rate (CPI, % change Dec/Dec): 21.1% (2015 Expected)

Gen. Gov. Financial Balance/GDP: -8.1% (2015 Expected) (also known as Fiscal Balance)

Current Account Balance/GDP: -2.3% (2015 Expected) (also known as External Balance)

External debt/GDP: 42.6% (2015 Expected)

Level of economic development: Low level of economic resilience

Default history: No default events (on bonds or loans) have been recorded since 1983.

On 14 April 2016, a rating committee was called to discuss the rating of the Zambia, Government of. The main points raised during the discussion were: The issuer’s economic fundamentals, including its economic strength, have not materially changed. The issuer’s fiscal or financial strength, including its debt profile, has materially decreased. The issuer has become increasingly susceptible to event risks. Other views raised included: An analysis of this issuer, relative to its peers, indicates that a repositioning of its rating would be appropriate.

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Sovereign Bond Ratings published in December 2015. Please see the Ratings Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

The weighting of all rating factors is described in the methodology used in this credit rating action, if applicable.

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138 COMMENTS

    • Are chickens coming home early to roost? To make matters worse we have a drunk driver. Let’s fire the idyot soon.

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    • Ifintu tafili mwino, this time, Chagwa will accuse Moody of being influenced by HH’s UPND. He has already accused the Police of siding with UPND over riots which have rocked Lusaka.

      Things are falling apart-even Leopard Kabwili has gone mute!!

      Indeed Chagwa Must Fall!!

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    • This is psyche play in the Brentwood mindset to devalue the Kwacha the more. It is not going to happen, the more the Kwacha depreciates the more profits they would make over the outstanding Eurobonds.

      The more they would send in IMF with interventionist plays. It is not going to happen! The cartel works that way all the time and so the best move is for BOZ to tighten fiscal policy even more, so that Kwacha gets even more stronger.

      By keep foreign exchange rates tight, we end up paying less in interest payment on our outstanding obligations and reduce more borrowing. Moody’s would prefer a devalued Kwacha, so the Eurobond debt would cost more to retire!!

      Mwachepa sana bakalume!!

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    • Continued …

      When the local currency falls, debt obligations increase thereby creating more pressure on the Balance of Payment and Current Accounts at BoZ. This leads to the same Eurobonds being retired at a high cost than what it would cost if ZMK was to appreciate in value.

      What Moody’s hate right now is the fact that should BoZ continue tightening our fiscal policy, ZMK might end up being stronger than it was at cost meaning at a better value than when the Eurobonds were acquired.

      Under this scenario Zambia would have dribbled investors because the cost of paying off the debt would be lower than the cost of acquiring the debt. Zambia would be making a profit and investors would not be receiving the initially anticipated return on investment (ROI).

      Moody’s pressure is to…

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    • Continued …

      Moody’s pressure is to force us to lose focus so that their investors make a huge profit. The tighter the fiscal policy, the stronger the ZMK and the less the need for future borrowing and the less attractive the Eurobonds.

      The less the borrowing, the lower the inflationary trends the more stable the economy and lower the interest rates. This leads to the fact that right now Zambian Treasury Bills are very attractive especially on the 28 day terms for US Dollar accounts.

      BoZ’s move to tight fiscal policy makes them less attractive and Moody’s investors may look elsewhere but the country’s fundamental make it a stronger economy. There is a lot of money to be made with these financial instruments and they are now crying foul thus the downgrade here … mwachepa…

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    • Continued …

      Just a reminder to Moody’s … BoZ can initiate QE if we wanted to and still mitigate your downgrade and it would have no effect at all. We want you to know that Moody’s does not run this country, the Elites do not run this country, the Brentwoods don’t run this country, the diplomats do not run this country and the media does not run this country … We The People Do!!!

      Mwachepa sana bakalume … as the only remaining UNIPist blogger left, I support the government of the day. We are heading in the right direction!!! Moody’s is looking out for its interests with its stakeholder, and BoZ is doing the right things by looking out for the interests of its stakeholders who are the smart people of the Zambian Enterprise.

      We win here and they lose … in fact we can…

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    • @b r mumba Sr

      You talking pure bulls sheet! You have really no idea what is happening. Moody’s does not “hate” anything. They are simply stating the FACTS.

      And the fact is that PF have fvcked up Zambia and its future generations.

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    • @Bring Mumba whose idea was it to borrow kaloba recklessly from Eurobond? Was it Moody’s or reckless PF? We made our own bed and we must sleep on it. Period!

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    • Cows are happy now. Why these encroached f0ols complain as they are cry babies, no one knows. HH, Halepitilila Hagain. Your bitterness wont win you the elections. It will be nega nega version 2.

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    • @ Free Slave:

      Who talked about “hating” us? Come on man … cut the crap! You have no idea what happens behind these scenes because you probably are not even qualified to have worked at level to understand the intricacies involved. Re-read through my blogs and find anywhere where I am referencing hate and then we can talk, for all I care you can go to hell with your lummox attitude. You are actually the one with no idea what is really causing them to rant when ZMK seems to be improving, they are losing and we are winning, Twerp!!!

      @Quest:

      This has nothing to do with borrowing alone, it is just that Moody’s initial projections concerning their Return On Investment (ROI) on the Eurobond are getting out of whack and so they have to cover intweno by downgrading us.

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    • Be careful what MOODY’s say. They are not the most neutral of the ratings agencies out there. Whether this rating is genuine or not, I am not qualified to say. But we always have to be careful not to take what these ratings agencies say as gospel truth. Plenty govts around the world have plenty misgivings with these ratings agencies. READ (a snippet) OF AN ANALYTICAL PIECE ABOUT THIS AGENCY (MOODY’S):

      TITLE: “More Empty Posturing Out Of Moody’s – Rating Agency Once Again Threatens With US Downgrade”

      The rating agency, whose “objectivity” was recently fully exposed after it has been persistently the one rater who refuses to downgrade Greece, even after its peers S&P and Fitch have made Greek bond eligibility for ECB collateral contingent purely on Moody’s lack of conscience,…

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    • continue…

      …is pretending that it has some credibility after all, by doing a little extra posturing, and grumbling that if things get much worse, it may, just may, consider dropping the US AAA rating. This, of course, despite Tim Geithner’s promise that the US would only be downgraded over his dead body, or something like that. Furthermore, as we have recently learned, the FRBNY has a “proactive” influence in rating agency decisions. To assume that Mr. Brian Peters of the New York Fed would return a Moody’s call and say “yes, we agree with your assumption that the US is not really AAA-worthy, please go ahead and downgrade us” requires copious amount of prior consumption of LSD and other hallucinogenics. Yet for those who still care about what output Moody’s produces, here is…

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    • continue…

      …the full relevant text discussing the outlook for the United States.

      GOOGLE THE REST OF THE ARTICLE AND READ IT FOR YOURSELVES!!!!

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    • This will disadvantage the UPND part because they are trying to punish Zambians, who have the power to vote for the leader of their choice.

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    • What a big blue lie moody. I will leave my comment to my one and only assistant to the president Mr Amos Chanda to refute this claim with harsh words. Also leave it to senior citizen to write a proper englished post about this big blue lie.

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    • ZAMBIA AND OTHER COUNTRIES SHOULD EXPECT THESE WHENEVER THE COUNTRY REFUSES TO BORROW MONEY FROM THE WORLD BANK AND IMF, BUT, BORROW FROM AfDB AND WHENEVER ANY OPPOSITION LEADER OF ANY COUNTRY WHO PROMISES TO GIVE THE WEST FREE MINES AND OTHER BIG BUSINESSES IS SEEN TO BE LOSING THE NATIONAL ELECTIONS AND THE SEATING PRESIDENT IS MORE FRIENDLY WITH CHINA THAN THEM. THE WAY FORWARD IS TO QUICKLY GET INTO SERIOUS FARMING AND FOOD PROCESSING INDUSTRIES AND START SERIOUSLY EXPORTING VALUE-ADDED FOOD STUFF. WHILE AT THE SAME TIME GETTING INTO SERIOUS MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES USING OUR OWN RAW MATERIALS AND EXPORT THE SAME MANUFACTURED GOODS RATHER THAN RAW RESOURCES.

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    • Zambia is indeed a sad case. This is a country that should be doing very well but people themselves decide that they should be governed by dumb and corrupt leaders. Even if the donor community poured so much money into Zambia, it can`t help. Zambia is a failed case and a failed State. Its a pity.

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    • My plea to fellow Zambians is that since HH is running govt from his village, let us just get him into State House in August so that he can do a proper job as a President. HH must have such an impressive contact list that he controls the IMF, Moody’s, the mining companies, the farmers, milling companies, the Police and anybody who does not follow PF’s daydreams. We need somebody that powerful as President to sort out the mess that Zambia is in.

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    • Please buck teeth Lungu, this is not funny. We don’t want the likes of Frank, Chimbwili and Mumbi to come and start screaming at us.

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  1. There can be no good news from Western capitals for Zambia. The are hoping by painting these gloomy pictures HH can take over, the Chinese can run away so that Western companies take over Chinese companies.

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    • Puleez which western company would want Chinese left overs in a bankrupt country that is crawling to the IMF with tails between the legs.

      Even the Chinese and Indians are thinking twice about investing.

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    • @3.1 YOU MEAN YOU DON’T KNOW THAT THE WEST OWES CHINA BILLIONS AND IF THAT’S THE CASE DO YOU THINK THE WEST WOULD BE INTERESTED IN EMPOWERING CHINA MORE JUST TO MAKE CHINA MORE RICH AND STILL OWE CHINA MORE? YOU SEE, THE WEST CAN SEE WHERE THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CHINA AND AFRICA IS GOING AND THE COMBINATION OF INDUSTRIALIZED AFRICA AND CHINA ISN’T ANY GOOD NEWS TO THE WEST.

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    • Man you need help with your brains. What is it that the USA would get from Zambia? Zambian is a landlocked country with no precious resources.

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  2. Yes, moody’s excellent analysis of Zambia is economy, its good that you have given a comprehensive analysis as opposed to a short statement which could have been disputed by one Chileshe Kandeta like he did last time. Folks, the data is their, the tools are provided, reference sites etc. Lets debate!
    don’t debate without reading the WHOLE article please.

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  3. China LIKE ZAMBIA HAS REAL OPTIONS IN THE GLOOMY OUTLOOK THERE ARE CREDIT DEFAULTS SWAPS AVAILABLE THERE IS A PLAN TO AVOID FORECLOSURE AND VERY MUCH REAL ITS NOT GLOOMY AS YOU WILL SEE IN THE PERFORMANCE OF THE ECONOMY

    YOU WILL SEE THE POSITIVE RESPONSE FRO GOVERMENT

    LITTLE IMPACT:A Chinese minister said the country ‘did not care that much’ about corporate bond ratings declines because the agencies are not familiar with its reforms

    Bloomberg

    The Chinese minister of finance accused international credit-rating companies of “bias” against the country after Standard & Poor’s Rating Services and Moody’s Investors Service lowered their sovereign outlooks on the world’s second-largest economy…

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    • @Real Issuer.. Well said, a positive outlook from with and dwelling too much on the Credit Rating is what is needed. As Zambia we have so many options at our disposal.

      We have a top team of economists working day and night to keep the nation economically sound and to help us pick from these difficult times.

      If China can suffer a down grade this shows how bad things are all over the world. Only a dull, bitter, evil minded ZWD/ UPND thug educated or not would fail to see this.

      ECL 2016 nafuti

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    • @ Real Issuer..I meant a positive outlook from WITHIN the country and NOT dwelling on the credit rating is what is needed!

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    • @5 WELL SAID AND IF ZAMBIANS CAN HAVE AN ATTITUDE THAT OF CHINESE THAT WOULD BE VERY GOOD FOR THE COUNTRY. CHINA KNOWS THAT THESE RATERS HAVE NO KNOWLEDGE ABOUT THEIR ECONOMIC REFORMS (WHICH ARE INTERNAL TO CHINA) SO WHATEVER NEGATIVE THING THEY SAY ABOUT CHINA’S ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE DOES NOT WORRY CHINA AND TO THE ANNOYANCE OF THE WEST. BUT ZAMBIANS ARE NOT LIKE THE CHINESE. ZAMBIANS RESPOND TO ALL ALARMS- EVEN AND MOSTLY FALSE ONES. THE CHINESE WILL COUNTER CHECK WITH THEIR REFORMS AND JUST TRASH OFF THE ALARMISTS WITH THEIR ALARMS AS NONSENSE.

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  4. “Historically, the market performance of most of China’s sovereign debt was higher than the assessment of the credit-rating agencies,” Chinese Minister of Finance Lou Jiwei (???) said at a news briefing in Washington on Friday after a G20 meeting.

    “That means there’s bias,” Lou said in response to a question from China’s Xinhua news agency.

    Last month’s downgrades did not reflect China’s “economic reality,” and the first quarter’s 6.7 percent growth rate was still very high, Lou said.

    While the pace was slower than last year, it was expected and in line with China’s target range of 6.5 percent to 7 percent, Lou said.

    China is also taking measures to control the increase and size of local government debt, a concern cited by Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s, he said.

    Lou’s…

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  5. Let’s hear who PF will now blame. Oh sorry they will blame poor HH again for the weakening currency and now the Moody negative outlook.

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  6. comments were China’s strongest against the credit-rating agencies, after the ministry last month said they underestimated the country’s ability to handle any economic risks.

    Standard & Poor’s reduced the outlook for China’s “AA-” long-term credit rating to “negative” from “stable” last month, following a similar move by Moody’s earlier in the month.

    Chinese economic officials have repeatedly tried to calm investors’ concerns over the nation’s outlook and flagged that there is room to act with increased fiscal and monetary support.

    Lou previously said that the nation’s leaders “did not care that much” about the Moody’s cut, because the move had little impact.

    At the same time, Lou on Friday said that China’s economy is facing headwinds, mainly from an increasingly aging…

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  7. At the same time, Lou on Friday said that China’s economy is facing headwinds, mainly from an increasingly aging population.

    The country is taking on strong measures and reforms to tackle the “downward pressure,” he said.

    “I am afraid the credit rating agencies are not familiar with these reforms, so I do not blame them,” Lou said, citing a debt-to-equity swap program for which the government has not released a detailed plan yet.

    China’s transformation to a consumer-led economy might be a “rocky” experience, IMF first deputy managing director David Lipton said on Bloomberg Television on Friday.

    While the IMF upgraded its China growth forecasts by 0.2 percentage points for this year and next year, it was concerned about the quality of China’s growth.

    “The IMF only sees the…

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    • The gov’t has been going around and around Fire fighting each and every crisis arising from low rains, low capacity to generate hydro electricity from low dams, due to poor rains. Fuel crisis from low income. We have witnessed our gov’t and President running the rounds internationally appealing to our neighbours for any consideration in the circumstances. This report cannot dampen our love for our gov’t and our angelic President who has had bucket after bucket of cold water poured on him. Be resilient President Lungu. And troops on the ground be stoical and be at best behaviour for new pointless attacks from opposition. God Bless Zambia and God Bless our President. amen

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    • @Gaylove..my extra sensory perception detected a rotten diseased piece of crap being spewed online and I knew once again the gaylove cretin had showed his despicable form on this medium..dudelove when someone disagrees with you all you know is to insult “just the ….up”, this is typical of you and I applaud my colleagues that turn the other cheek when you verbally assault them. However we have boxed before online and I would be more than happy to send you back packing into your uncle HH’s exterior hole where you normally seek comfort. Hopeless cretin you are.

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    • Ba 2020whatsyourface just continue sucking Kudo’s shriveled little doyo, OK? You think that !diotic use of English will make your ka atom sized brain grow bigger? twat.

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  8. All the calculations are based on assumptions and not what will happen
    Moody’s has failed to predict correctly
    Just like the IMF , the financial turmoi
    And housing bubble in the USA and Uk.
    I will not worry so much about Moody’s
    Assumptions. Don’t give them a second
    Guess let’s just continue with our fiscal
    Stance.

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    • My dull friend, the institutions you run to get loans from first look at your credit rating before they release money. So if your rating is negative its no loans. Get an education.

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  9. Last week everybody in PF was cerebrating the Kwacha gaining value, what has gone wrong with measures BOZ put in place

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    • Which measures?
      Ignoring reality or been under influence and dreaming about “Chikwandanomics” success?

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  10. “The IMF only sees the measures we recently adopted on the demand side, but we have different views on the supply-side reforms,” Lou said. “I don’t want to comment on their forecast. They have their own logic.”
    LIKE CHINES YOU SIMPLY LOOK AT HOW MANY COUNTRIES HAVE BEEN DOWN GRADED AND LOOK AT THE METHODOLOGY OF THE CREDIT DOWN GRADE AND SEE IN IT ITS NOT CORRECT IN TERMS OF REAL OPTIONS AVAILABLE YOU STILL QUESTION THE REASONING AND OFFER WORKABLE SOLUTIONS

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    • Comparing Chinese economy problems with Zambian economy problems it is same like comparing certified 1mbecile with Nobel Laureate in Astronomy.
      China has “war chest” of couple of TRILLION dollars at its disposal whilst Zambia hopes that IMF will be “stakeholder” instead of its role of “banker of last resort”.

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  11. these are the same guys who rated zambia almost A+ during MMD and the economy was feeling good business was good food prices were stable money was available the exchange rate was predictable the economy was functional and the things were moving in the right direction with vision 2030 read chikwandas first budget speech and read the last one.

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  12. Look on the bright side. Our big brother RSA is being threatened with JUNK STATUS. I am told our loan repayments are affected by the rating.

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    • Lower the ratings, higher the interest.
      Higher the ratings, lower the interest.

      From not existing liquidity and growing fiscal deficit, how to finance higher interest?

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  13. These down-graded ratings are contrary to the developments on the ground. Lies. This is all about USA vs China. You together with Mmembe and Hichilema can’t cheat us.

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  14. Moddy’s correct about one thing the negative report was less than expected! Most of the greater-than-anticipated fiscal slippages in 2016 are due to low rains, international recession.

    In fact the gov’ts refusal to punish Zambian citizens with the called for Austerity measures is full marks to His Excellency President Lungu. Jus consideration for his people is the HIGHEST service to his people.

    Arise,Your Excelkency, your people are behind you. Opposition Detractor will never defeat Righteous Gov’t, by the people, fir the people. Take heart Your Exvellency, the Projection from Christ Redeemer is Bright.p, and I am never wrong in Christ. amen.

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    • Let’s just call this agent if colonialism, Noddy fir the time being. Zambia’s future is bright…as soon as the rains come in.

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    • A failure to read and understand. They have given you reasons which drill down to fiscal indiscipline and you still cannot understand. Your skulls ba PF must be made out of real tough high quality steel. Are you saying we have had one big drought all through the five years PF has been running this country into the ground?? Rain?? Are you for real? Fimo mwaikala fye coz now you sound more !diotic than Kudos and that is not an easy thing to achieve.

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    • @Dudelove, you don’t sound like you like Zambia much. Why not go somewhere you like. I am Zambian and Patriotic, you could tell me Zambia is the worst place on earth, I’d stand up against that reason. For surely whatever problems we have we can all be stoical and march on to victory. I don’t care much about your suggestions of intellect, because you can read and understand but lack passion.

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    • Mr. Patriotic Abroad, I don’t think it is being patriotic if things in your house are going from bad to worse and you keep on praising them. The people on this blog are simply stating facts which even your President ECL knows deep down his heart are really wrong. What we need to do here is point out the wrongs so that the wrongs are righted.

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  15. ITS NOT LIKE YOU ARE CAST IN THE ROCK OR STONE YOU HAVE OTHER PEOPLE AND FUNDING METHODS TO PAY OFF THE USD 3 BILLION OR SIMPLY HAVE A CREDIT DEFAULT SWAAP AND SCRAP THE WHOLE ENTIRE NEGATIVE B RATING CLASSIFICATION

    THERE IS A LOT OF FUNDING METHODS TO CHANGE THE CHARECTERISTICS OF THE DEBT AND MOODY SHOULD NOT LOCK YOU IN THE DOWN GRADE ITS POSSIBLE

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    • No it’s not cast in stone. Changes soon.
      The gov’t has been going around and around Fire fighting each and every crisis arising from low rains, low capacity to generate hydro electricity from low dams, due to poor rains. Fuel crisis from low income. We have witnessed our gov’t and President running the rounds internationally appealing to our neighbours for any consideration in the circumstances. This report cannot dampen our love for our gov’t and our angelic President who has had bucket after bucket of cold water poured on him. Be resilient President Lungu. And troops on the ground be stoical and be at best behaviour for new pointless attacks from opposition. God Bless Zambia and God Bless our President. amen

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  16. The analysis is perfect and timely atleast it gives us a crew on how we shud respond especially the govt and even us at individual level and especially wen it comes to personal spending. It’s very easy to blame the govt not being displine that’s it’s fiscal balance us bad. The fiscal I displine is in how we spend at personal level. This I call Personal Fiscal Displine, it’s a displine we all need to exercise. This analysis is an eye opener to to individuals and govt………#ECL

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    • The problem is that you don’t have right “crew” to manage economy. What you have is a “crew” without clue.

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  17. I ask God how we had the misfortune of dealing ever with these devils called Great Britain. As a Christian I know the answer is to work hard and change our fight towards independent Africa. these devils have never been our friends period, starting with explorer missionaries Livingstone and his other minions.

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  18. All Governments face tough economic times, can anyone of you UPND/ ZWD numbskulls quote a positive outlook from Moody’s for Angola, Congo, Zimbabwe or Mozambique? Answer NO! So don’t rejoice over the difficult times we are going through.
    For those of us old enough to remember even during Magaret Thatchers years Britain underwent some very difficult times and still people voted for her more than once. Why despite all the insults and name calling at her?? Because the majority believed she was best for their country at that time.
    2016 ECL nafuti

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    • I believe Lungu is the worst mistake Zambians made next to Sata who neighbours Chiluba in economic destruction.

      I won’t and I resolutely refuse to be blinded from facts before my eyes: massive debts , corruption , greed , selfishness, boasting , bubela and incompetence.

      Lungu & RB PF zwaaaaaaaa !!!

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  19. These ratings are basically single source story perspectives- they will rate us based on their own forecasts, perhaps with inputs from myopic self declared local economists who cook up forecasts by crooks law without any intrinsic research but merely a “gut feeling” forecast! How do they come up with a down grade at a time when mining companies are pledging billions of investment, our agric season has not been dismal, copper production is forest to be above 700 000 metric tonnes this year,our Kwacha has firmed up against the dollar plus the energy sector is showing signs of improvement with many energy programmes online. We can only conclude that Anglo America and that crooked US ambassador are calling the tune to the pipper inorder to install their stooge!

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  20. The PF govt has no capacity to understand Moody’s or IMF’s analysis or how ratings are arrived at.They will this down grade on the opposition especially HH.The outlook for Zambia looks bad and will be worse if Lungu and his govt are retained in power. Another 5years of “chipande pande” ruling will be disastrous for Zambia. We hope fellow Zambians understand the meaning of this and come 11th August 2016 should vote wisely.

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  21. Thats what happens when a currency appreciates through prayers. Moody’s arrives and destroys God’s plans

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  22. Niziba chibaba guys but the fact is that we were better off before PF came, simple as that. We were once rated a middle income country now we cant even borrow coz we are rated in the negatives. Pliz give chance to better people to govern

    Thank you.

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  23. Nothing to get excited about really. All countries go through these cycles and do recover. The basic thing to appreciate is that the whole economy is driven by copper and electricity dams/low rainfall, everyone knows what has happened in that area, even Moody’s know that. This would have happened under any government, whether the President was GBM, mILUPI, Nawakwi, or even HH. Or are you telling us that these guys and girls would invoke their spirits to fill up the dams for electricity and ask the gods to increase the prices of copper? What matters is the determination of all players in the to cooperate as one affected country. Having said that, it is allowed for political parties to offer their unique solutions, but not to mislead people on obvious things just to get to Plot 1.

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  24. @Kuudos, what development are you talking about, the infrastruction development & all the assets were done on borrowed maney, they do not yet belong to the state, in terns of monetary wise untill such loans are fully repaid. It is this debt of 56% that is driving the groth into negative. It is like a household, that find itself in a scenario, of exhorsting all the income, while many of its debts still un paid. Whethet that house hold as cars dwelling properties they are not secure. That is the situation zambia is faced with.

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  25. yes we will vote wisELy- a national leader not a clan leader witha bloated ego-2016 ECL< PAWATOOOO!!!!

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    • Yes there is! Fluctuations like a this are not just by accident. They are caused by irresponsible clueless clowns like Lungu trying to manipulate the economy to get re-elected and destroying the Nation in the process!

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  26. But we will still give Edgar majority votes simply because he is the one tackling these challenges on our behalf while others simply climb mountain tops to shout what it should be like, hot air like you know but they would score zero in action. As they say, it is to criticise but not to do it yourself, just like the soccer fans know how they would have scored the goals for their team if only they were given a chance to play.

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  27. PF, and the PF bloggers here, have no idea of the seriousness of such downgrades. If you run a mealie meal shop and there are jobs losses among your customers who got on nkongole, it’s would not be wise to rubbish such information.

    It is clear from international and domestic observers that we are on the wrong path and we shall soon crash if no major fiscal tightening takes place. The blame is on PF, Lungu and Sata.

    PF will not stop reckless spending until they are separated from the Treasury by the ballot or by a meltdown.

    I would like to see counter arguments by PF bloggers based on economic and financial considerations.

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  28. the sad truth is 80% of the comments above are below normal educated reasoning,zambia still has 1000 0f milestones to develop looking from the logics and mindset of the populace of its citizens.the truth is pf has messed up the economy.k35-k120,unga.

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  29. @One Zed, we clearly understand what it means for a credit rating institution such as Moody’s to downgrade an economy and how that affects borrowers confidence and ultimately FDI, still however one must look at the wider economic landscape regionally and globally, clearly Zambia isn’t the only country in the region that has suffered a down grade! I challenge you ZWD/ UPNDists to present a report from Moody showing a better outlook for the majority of the countries in the region. If mighty China can receive a downgrade, what does this tell us? Be fair don’t just criticise for the sake of it.

    2016 ECL nafuti

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    • How many countries in Africa have approached IMF? Don’t just defend for sake of defending. Look at the reality. Ops, sorry, forgot that you are blind due to PeeFtitys.

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    • @35 2020vision
      Please analyze Zambia as a country, not the “wider economic landscape” you are talking about. Has Moody downgraded Botswana, Namibia etc.? or are you referring to countries whose economies are just as poorly managed as your PF Zambia? What mitigating factors did the PF government put in place in the event copper prices fall? Give me one single currency of any country in the region that has depreciated to the level that the Zambian Kwacha reached recently? How much of the borrowed Euro-bond money was put into manufacturing to stimulate the economy? To you, anyone raising legitimate questions such as these, is only “insulting” your PF government. Are you serious?

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  30. The PF with Lungu as president is a curse upon the nation. To all PF dunderheads, what this down grade simply means is that Zambia cannot continue to borrow as they have been doing. This is what happened to Zimbabwe. You cannot compare China to Zambia which ranks among the top 5 poorest countries in Africa. When you have people with demented brains as leaders, this is what happens. Hard times are already here. This is a government of scatter brains. This is unbelievable, to be down graded twice in less than a year.

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    • @voice of no reason, you are tired of being the only dunderheads ranting on ZWD where other opinions are not published so you come to an open site like Lsk Times to call other people with opposing opinions names..who is the dunder head is this picture???

      I asked a simple question show us a NIEGHBOURING country that has received a Positive rating from Moody’s you have failed! Why?? Because you are a DUNDERHEAD!

      2016 ECL nafuti.

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  31. I THINK MOODY’S IS CORRECT. BUT ONE THING IS CLEAR. THEY JUST LOOK AT WHAT YOU DO AND MAKE ASSUMPTIONS. THEY HAVE ALREADY CHANGED THEIR MINDS ON THEIR INITIAL PROJECTIONS C. SO IN SIMILAR FASHION COME ONE YEAR DOWN THE LINE, TJEY WILL CHANGE AGAIN. SO NEED FOR EXCITEMENT. NO ONE HAS TOLD US HOW THEY WILL CHANGE THE PUTLOOK.

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  32. It is good to comfort ourselves that Moody may have downgraded other countries. What remains clear is that we have not been frugal in our financial management. The desire to appease voters with unnecessary expenditure in view of the limited fiscal space accounts for the current problems. We would still have managed to have minimal damage to our country in the face of commodity prices and drought if we knew how to manage the meager resources. Joseph in the Bible had seven years of drought but not a single soul perished. Egypt remained economically intact during the lean years. Discipline, focus and political maturity is what we need. Zambia is divided on ethnic lines and instead of politicians finding the cause of this, the likes of Dora fuel the fire. How can you successfully run an…

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  33. Gaylove wow what an imagination you have, no doubt the signs of servicing your MALE Team HH members are still fresh not only in your vulgar mouth but in your hyper ego yet nano sized brain that can only function when you dream of being penetrated from your diseased behind in a line by wanzelu, sidomark, ndobo et al what a sick chap you are… sorry Mr Gaylove some of us as mentioned some years ago are actually straight so you’ll have to continue living inside your Uncle HH’s exterior hole where you scheme all these disgusting thoughts..Gaylove haha what a sick joke and no doubt a very smelly bloke you are…stay well but repent so you don’t go to hell!

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  34. PF tell us that they know what they are doing; and we are more than eager to vote them back into office! If anyone is to blame, it’s us, the Zambian electorate. Fortunately, the bill is on us. These thieves, when they finally jump out, they would have long secured their futures, smiling at their off-shore accounts while we will be frowning at the nations empty coffers.

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  35. The PF theives on this blog don’t care or understand such ratings, as long as they continue looting or being benifactors of the corruption, looting and missmangment.

    Your time of looting is coming to an end, if not by the ballot in August it will be via IMF chokes after the elections where the squeeze on citizens will be too much to bear seeing PF have no clue about how to manage the economy.

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    • One thief of mention here is your Uncle HH you child of s.a.t.a.n..Your number second boss that wife beating vulgar mouthed GBM was kicked from PF because he wanted to steal from contracts now he has formed a s.a.t.a.n.I.c alliance with your Hungry Hyena president..hopeless cretins you all are ba UPND!

      Hopeless trouble maker you are, yesterday with your posts trying to incite violence.

      Truly a demon possessed chap you are..hopeless cretin.

      2016 ECL nafuti

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    • Ba no vision,

      Came down bwana. I know the truth hurts, but loot while you can cos August no more looting for you theives.

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  36. The rating are assumptions & may be fulfilled or not. However, we have to take a leaf from them. For FIRST DRIVER: Fiscal deficit, gvt mentioned that they have cut on spending resulting into appreciation of Kwacha. Power deficit (1,000 MW vs. 560 MW) these can be reduced by lapsing export contracts as they expire which couldn’t be done to avoid expensive damages & coal power plants are under construction. Most domestic consumers have turned to gas. Fuel subsidies, difficult to deal with without sacrifice from consumers. Lower Copper prices, diversification into agriculture is slowly in place. SECOND DRIVER: Domestic and foreign debt need to be minimised improve liquidity in the country.

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    • SECOND DRIVER: Domestic and foreign debt need to be minimised to improve liquidity in the country. This can be done by charging meaningful and sustainable rates on Mambia’s resources like windfall tax & other taxes and all forms of asset sales unlike the past sale of parastatals including former council houses at low prices. More income generating ventures are needed.

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  37. Zambia is a free country but UPND and their mentality is that of a dictatorship. The blind followers of HH such as Meimatungu, Uncivilised Sam, !diotmark, GayLove/Dudelove, Voice of no reason, Watanshi, Queen (of insults), Dobo and the accursed wanzelu (in all its forms-wNzelu, nzelu whatever-Larry Mweetwa- HH’s nephew that lives in a mental hospital in the UK).. These chaps to use their own favourite words are DUNDERHEADS..they write insults on their ZWD where no opposing views are allowed, when they surf other sites such as this one they are shocked by the resistance in opinion and so as cowards they resort to insults. Ba UPND please continue with your insults so that all can see what you are made of shallow evil minds that are a danger to themselves.
    2016 ECL nafuti

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    • Telling the truth ati is insults.
      Just keep stealing while you can,

      Come August Zambia shall be free from this corruption and missmangment called PF.

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    • @46 2020vision
      Please direct your vision, is any, to what MOODY is saying, the “F” grade the PF government is being given. It’s not about insults, not about UPND etc. It’s about the PF government and how well, if at all, it has performed thus far.

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  38. Many western countries are equally not doing so well such that they are looking for safe heavens for their investment. We borrowed and we have seen where 5he money we borrowed went. All those complaining ala things of God dont make sense to our intelect. Call me whatever name you would like to but you will see the hand of God at work not your limited knowledge in economics.

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    • God helps those who help themselves.Dont just sit there and think we will wake up oneday and our ratings will be upgraded to A+ overnight.Do something about your situation and this includes rejecting this myopic PF govt.Lest you dont know, there will be no medicines in hospitals, govt will not hire new teachers and inflation will hit 30% by September.Work Up!

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  39. This is nonsense and only satan1sts in upnd are happy when mother Zambia is painted black!!KEEP ON RANTING WHILE PF RULE MOTHER ZAMBIA!!”IFINTU NI LUNGU-2016!!

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  40. ITS JUST AN OPINION BUT LIKE ANY INVESTMENTS CYCLES YOU NAVIGATE THE BUSINESS CYCLE AND NEVER JACKET FITTED

    WHEN I READ THROUGH THIS TECHNICAL RATINGS I SEE RATING FAILURE FAILURE BASED ON NEED AND EXCESSIVE NEED TO KEEP RATES STABLE WITHOUT STRESS TESTING THE PROPOSSED AND COMFIRMED THE ASSIGNED WITH UPSIDE BIAS AND INTERAGENT CORRELATION

    THERE ARE INCENTIVE BIAS HERE WITH REVENUE BIAS OVERLY EMPHASISED RESULTING IN PROBLEMS OF INFORMATIONAL AND ANALYSTICAL BIAS TOWARDS THE PEOPLE THAT SUBSCRIBES AND PAY THE RATING AGENCY

    ITS NOT THAT IT MAKES YOU FAIL TO MOVE ON YOU STILL HAVE OTHER SECTORS TO MOVE THAT RISKS AND MANAGE

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    • You don`t need to confuse yourself. Like any rating agency, Moody`s has it`s own metrics and standards. It`s either you meet set standards or not. And their opinion is that Zambia has been unable to. If you want to argue, show us your framework.

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  41. YOU SEE ISSUERS SEEK THE RATINGS AND PAY FOR THEM AND AS SUCH RATING AGENCIES REPORT TO THIER MASTERS AND WILL REPORT IN A RISK AVERSE TO ENSURE THAT THE ISSUER GETS THE MOST COVER BUT NOT NECESSARY THAT ALL IS GLOOMY

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  42. THERE IS ALSO A BIAS AND EMPHASIS TOWARDS ONLY MACROECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS THERE ALONE AND FAILING TO NARROW ON THE INSTRUMENT BY INSTRUMENT AND PERCULIA CHARECTERISTICS AS CONTIGENT LIABILITY WITH TOO MUCH EMPHASIS ON GLOBAL LIQUIDITY CONDITIONS

    THE RATINGS DEED VERY LITTLE TO SHOW THE POSSITIVITIES IN THE ZAMBIAN CONTIGENT LIABILITIES AND TOOK A GLOBAL VIEW AND FAILED TO SEE THE REAL OPTIONS PERCULIA TO ZAMBIA

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  43. Here we go again, ati it is global from the kaponyas.

    Agriculture and tourisim have declined under PF. These are supposed to be the backbone and major employers in our economy. But alas with PF this is not to be. They all have been concentrating on plundering the eurobonds through overinflating project costs.

    Shortages, inflation, cholera, blackouts., no water, joblessness and desperation are characteristics of life for the common man. Now they have an IMF squeeze to deal with.

    Vote Wisley next time.

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  44. YOU WILL NEED ALSO NEED TO SEE THAT THE COUNTRY RISK FOR ZAMBIA IS VERY VERY GOOD AND MAKE A DIFERENCE IN YOUR UNDERSTANDING OF SOVEREIGN RISK IT DOESNOT MEAN THAT OTHER CLASSES OF DEBT INSTRUMENTS ARE NOT VAIBLE SUCH AS BANK LOANS CORPORATE TREASURIES AND OTHERS

    TOO MUCH REALIANCE ON CREDIT WORTHNESS OF GRZ IN THIS REPORT ALSO PAINTS A GLOOMY PICTURE ON THE INITATIVE THERE LIES IN THE PRIVATE THE COUNTRY RISK IS GOOD HOWEVER

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  45. THE RATING DOWN GRADE IS ALSO NARROWED FOCUSED AND DEFINED IF YOU ANALYSE CAREFULLY THE FUTURE OPTIONS IN THERE THEY NEED TO GIVE YOU THE HORIZONS AND PROB OF DEFAULT OCCURENCE ACCURATELY AND WHEN LOOKING AT THE ACCOUNTS ITS VERY VERY SUBJECTIVE INDEED

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  46. AND WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE RAMP USED SIMPLY GET YOUR EXCEL AND ANALYSE ON YOUR OWN AND SEE THE KEY RISK FACTORS

    DO YOU THINK THE RAMP FACTORS AGAINST THE KEY RISK FACTORS ARE CAST IN THE STONE AND SO GLOOMY FOR ZAMBIA THE COUNTRY RISK IS GOOD IN PROSPECTS

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  47. AVOID BEING JACKETED INTO DEBT SUSTAINABILITY AS OPPOSED TO MACRO PRODENTIAL FORECUSING TO WORK THE ECONOMY FROM THE GLOOMY RATINGS NAVIGATING THE RATING PYRAMIND TO ENSURE YOU ARE NOT GROUNDED

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  48. Well Zambians you made your bed in 2011 when you fired an economically competent RB gov’t for a more politically focused PF gov’t.

    Now live with your Moody’s downgrades, lost bumper harvests ,diminished forex reserves and an economy that went from a healthy 6.5% growth to a now mediocre 3.2% growth.

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    • And you wonder why the Dirty Pastor has decided to side with PF and so doing destroyed MMD!!

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  49. Some Tongas behave like apes, wherever they appear as confusion is part of their genetic make up. Nega nega in august wont work for them. They shot themselves in their foot(s)

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  50. YOU CANNOT CHANGE ARTIFICIALLY THE POLITICAL FORTUNES IN A SOVEREIGN COUNTRY USING A RATING DOWN GRADE

    HERE IS A CATCH FOR MOODY RATINGS DWON GRADE .THERE IS NO HISTORY OF ZAMBIA DEFAULTING OR SINGLE ENTITY PREVIOUSLY THERE IS A HUGE DEVIATION IN THE LIKELY HOOD OF ZAMBIA DEFAULTING AND THE ACTUAL

    ITS NOT SUPRISING THEREFORE THAT MODDYS HAS NO ACTUAL DEFAULT MEASURE AND HENCE THE EMPHASIS ON THE CATCH WORDS “TO KEEP RATINGS STABILITY ”’ LETS CHECK THE METHODOLOGY AND SEE THE RATINGS DECISION AND COMFIRM ITS NOT ALL THAT GLOOMY

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  51. I hold a PhD in economics,Mood’s go to south Africa and do your ratings.please you are not welcome here.wheather the kwacha gets to 500 to a dollar I and my family it’s pf and chagwa.ba mumbwe,monisters,zombis blood suckers no room for you in Zambia period. You can take the entire space on this site,nothing will change us,its pf chapwa. GO to HELL.

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  52. Burying heads in the sand. People should learn to assess, by relating the article’s statement to the practicalities and reality and arriving at an informed conclusion. Not knee jerk reactions of denial upon denial. It usually comes from those incapable of, or lazy to engage in thinking because they are choking from the nation’s cake they are sharing with Lungu at the dining table.

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  53. OUR FINANCIAL SYSTEM IS STABLE AS IT ALLOWS SMOOTH FLOW OF FUNDS IN A RATIONAL WAY AND WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE CHANNELS OF DEBT MITIGATION BOTH PREEMPTIVE AND MITIGATIONAL RISK MEASURES AS IN POLICY ANNOUNCED TO ADDRESS THE COUNTRY TO SOVEREIGN RISK,YOU WILL AGREE THAT MOODYS RATING IS NOT CORRET ASSESSMENT ITS BASED ON RATES STABILITY AND THE NEED TO KEEP THAT STABILITY WITHOUT CONSIDERATION OF THE REAL OPTONS ASSESSING THE DEFAULT PROB AND THE MEASURE OF DEVIATION

    IT HAS ASSESS CORRECTLY THE STOCK OF DEBT FAILED TO ASSESS THE INVESTORS BASE THE STRUCTURE AND RESTRUTURE OF THE DEBT FORGETING THE INSTITUTIONAL ASPECT IN WHAT GOV HAS PUT IN PLACE…

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  54. Why can’t people understand currency speculation? It’s obvious from the time ati “target is K2.5 to 1USD” in 2005, up to now. Ni this week UP, next week DOWN, someone laughing every day just because they know how to play it and have a few hours notice from their friends

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  55. Country men, if only you understand what this means. This is a very big economic injury inflicted upon the nation by the pf government. If it was a business it would close down. Since the national books are in RED this means that there will be no maney to pay back the loans, there will be no maney to continue with development, no money to sustain development – if there projects that needs cash they will be halted like that. Which means no jobs, even further job looses. Kwacha becoming further valueless the list goes on & on, indeed the future is so bleak for zed. Those who still want pf in power do not understand what they are asking, this country will ungovernable because of misery that people will go through.

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    • This country is already ungovernable. Just look at the riots in the compounds and the feeble govt response. PF have no clue what’s going on.

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  56. Ubufi bu la letela….this is a totally biased report which will leave Mr Moody very moody when the Zed economy picks up. They actually admit, ratings may alter after August election….so what the F is moody ranting on for? Global downturn is only reflecting on Zambia now….not so bleak as elaborated!!

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  57. I bet that Chileshe Kandeta and the PFoolish govt will say that they never asked Moody’s to rate Zambia, that all this is unsolicited. Just watch how PF continues to discredit Zambia with insane views and comments.

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  58. Africa is the richest continent, but the people are the poorest and it all because Africans love choosing dunderheads to lead them. Look at the comments from PF sympathisers very excellent, but listen to their so called idol, very ignorant and shallow. The country cannot develop with you people electing dunderheads, it is like planting a mango tree and expecting apples. Things never work like that, Lungu had no vision for you before he became president and he will continue to have no vision for the people. I think it will be better for Lungu to resign rather than just occupy that seat for the sake of it, Zambians can’t put up with too much suffering, they will end up stoning him out of that state house with his not listening to advice self.

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  59. ITS NOT GLOOMY ZAMBIA STILL HAS A LOT OF INVESTOR BASE IN THE SOVEREIGN DEBT AND OTHER WITH FLEXIBLE STRUCTURE AND LEGAL FRAMEWORK AT MINIMUM COSTS TO OPERATIONALLY TWIST THE RATINGS ZAMBIA IS NOT VULNERABLE TOO MUCH EURO CRISIS ANALYSIS PEGGING BY MOODYS REMEMBER ITS ONLY LESS THAN 3 BILLION AND ZAMBIA IS BIGGER THAN THAT THERE CANNOT BE LIQUIDITY OR SOLVENCY PROBLEMS ITS FAR FROM THAT

    OUR CENTRAL BANK RESERVE MANAGEMENT IS ALSO GOOD AS YOU CAN RESTATE THE ASSETS COVER WITH THOSE LIABILITIES IS ADEQUATE IN THE SHORT AND LONGTERM IN CURRENCY AND DEPOSITS THERE IS LIQUIDITY THERE WITH RESERVE DIVERSIFICATIONS AWAY FROM ONE SINGLE…

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  60. CURRENCY HELPING ADDRESS CURRENCY MOVEMENTS IN THE BUSKET OF MAJOR CURRENCIES TO EFFECT AND CONTINUE SUSTAINING THE KWACHA MOFED HAS BUILD A DIVERSIFIED RESERVE ALLOCATION OVER A PERIOD TO ENSURE LONGTERM INFLATION IS CONTAINED GIVING THE KWACHA COMPETITIVENESS IN HE LONG TERM

    WE STILL HAVE THE SDRS TO COME TO IN IMF AFTER ELECTIONS PLUS SOME GOLD TO LOOK FOR AS REFERENCE POINT IF IT COMES TO CALL AS VALUE WE MAINTAIN NOT A MONO TYPE OF RESERVES BUT DIVERSIFIED THE TOTAL PORTIFOLIO OF RESOURCES IN ZAMBIAS BACK YARD IN PRESENT VALUE EXCEEDS THE MOODYS ANALYTICS ITS NOT GLOOMY AS PAINTED

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  61. @Mwalimu you can take the whole day and night explaining to these UPND dunderhaeds they will not understand, to them the rating by the stupid moody is excellent because it makes high their chances of winning the elections in august so they are very excited, but what they are forggeting is that voters out their dont even know this moody nonsense so leave them to rant.

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  62. Zambia is indeed a sad case. This is a country that should be doing very well but people themselves decide that they should be governed by dumb and corrupt leaders. Even if the donor community poured so much money into Zambia, it can`t help. Zambia is a failed case and a failed State. Its a pity..

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  63. Its a failed rating indeed as its reasoning is weak Any tough rates assessments will not be scanty or search in decisions and must not deviate very much from actual and then there has been no known previous default to stress too much the vulnerabilities or balance of payments as a state of emphasis Its a ratings failure now they have to upgrade 3 steps as its not possible to grade a Junk status If you look at the pyramid of Zambia Country risk from House holds to individuals and corporates there is quality of credit and definitely this works also for sovereign

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