The Patriotic Front says it’s not worried or moved by opinion polls suggesting that its chances of losing next month’s elections are high.
PF Deputy Spokesperson Frank Bwalya said this is because most of such predictions are being made by discredited researchers.
Mr. Bwalya has singled out the latest prediction by political scientist Neo Simutanyi that the opposition UPND can win the forthcoming general election in the first round of voting if it manages to increase on the votes it got in the 2015 presidential election, as one such prediction that the ruling PF considers to be fake.
He said Zambians recall how Dr. Simutanyi made a similar prediction in 2011 that former President Rupiah Banda would win the general election, but ended up losing to late President Michael Sata.
Mr. Bwalya noted that what Dr. Simutanyi has not taken into consideration is the fact that the PF is no longer having the leadership wrangles it had prior to the 2015 presidential election.
He stated that as far as the PF is concerned, Lusaka and Copperbelt provinces are solidly behind President Edgar Lungu and that the party is certain of victory in the forthcoming elections.
UPND to win by 80% in first round…lol #dununareverse
True no leadership wrangles in PF, because all good leaders left the boat. Now PF’s wrangle is at its Secretariat, simply too many PF spokes people. Another wrangle is between State house vs diplomats.
Where is Mumbi Phiri?
Muvi Tv is good at such predictions. Even before the 2015 elections Costa was busy unleashing similar percentages about UPND’s popularity to the viewers. But we all know the results of the 2015 elections. Social media can be misleading. Most people on social media are not even voters while most Zambian voters are not even on social media. Beware.
According to most independent observers PF are likely to retain power- if we go by the results of last year and add to this the fact that very few PF supporters voted which this year will not be the case- we expect a large turnout in PF strongholds. In UPND strongholds there was 90 percent turnout whereas in PF we had 20 to 40 percent turnout- if PF can record even 60- percent turnout of registered voters we are winning it again.
2016 ECL nafuti
Flaky Bwalwa with his Hitler moustache! Party for Fascists.
What is so disappointing about so called election analyses from people like Simutanyi is how shallow and unresearched they appear to be. It is like they simply get the data from popular social media, put their own partisan spin on it and call it that OPINION POLL! There is a SCIENCE to opinion polls (sciences such as: mathematics/statics, political science, social science, behavioral science, etc.) Ingredients so conspicuously absent in all so called Zambian opinion polls—-especially political polls! That’s why they are almost always WRONG!
For instance, they fail to even consider such simple facts as on what overall VOTER TURNOUT threshold their analysis is based on. They simply spit out last year’s election numbers without telling people that those percentages/figures are based on ONLY 33% turn out of registered voters. And this turn out includes almost 90+ percentage turn out in so called UPND STRONGHOLDS (particularly Southern province.)
So we are talking about at least 69+% of voters who did not take part in the 2015 presidential by-election. And you can bet, a big chunk of those voters are going to participate in the General elections. So it is intellectual laziness to simply extrapolate last year’s election numbers to this year’s General election likely outcome!
And it is the 33+% voter turnout in 2015 that should be worrying to Parties like UPND, given how the voting pattern came out. Even in the year/election one expected the UPND/HH to do exceptionally well, given the police/power wrangles the PF was going through at the time, UPND still ended up doing the EXPECTED: 1) LOST the election to political novice. 2) only performed well in areas/regions they have always done so in the past.
This is despite the fact that they campaigned longer than PF/EDIGER. It is facts such as these that these hired pollsters always want to overlook in their quest to artificially please their paymasters. But truth and facts always win in the end. SO TRY TO BE TRUTHFUL TO YOURSELVES FOR ONCE SO YOU DON’T KEEP BUILDING CASTLES IN THE AIR!
This is the father that has destroyed PF,just wait and see what we will do to this chap.We have lost this election because of the following reason.
a, Our running is below standard,cant march with GBM
B,Lungu is just sitting in state house hoping to rig election.
c,Our carders are too violent to our voters
d,The closer of the post news paper is clearly a political move and Zambian are not happy.
e ,Load shedding ,people are not happy.
f,The high cost of living is affection the zambians
g, Pf has failed to run agriculture in this country.
i,People are unmoved by our campaigns this time around,cause you rise your hand and people are not responding back ,this is frustrating our campaigns.
Concerned pf carder
Meanwhile UPND are running out of campaign finances. Other day HH was on muvi appealing for financial support from well wishers. Only two possible explanations! Either there was no proper planning of campaign program or financiers have sensed something and would not want to make a waste!
It is said that politics makes rich people became poor ,but this theory does not apply to HH.A political party is funded by it members because it is community service.When you see HH asking for funds from his members it does not mean the party has no funds.
You are just a upnd cadre you baffoon
Political casualties after the elections awaits! Whoever loses between PF and UPND will be the end of their political careers and political parties. Citizens prepare mass resuscitations
Neo simutanyi has never been known to make predictions that come true .He is always in fantasy island . Even the people who hire him must be of questionable characters
He is fake. Even his PHD has been questioned. No one knows where he got it from.
Neo Simutanyi is always on Fantasy Island with Mr. Tattoo drinking sex on the beach lol
Bwalya Mulenga’s analysis is spot on. Based on PF and Lungu’s record Lungu cannot win this election. High cost of living, lack of jobs, loss of jobs, load shedding, violence, intolerance are working against Lungu and PF. Lungu himself has misruled and mismanaged the zambian economy. While most Zambians are suffering becoz of high cost of living, Lungu in 16 months is K23.7million filthy rich. Lungu has stolen public funds and extorted money from corrupt govt contracts. Lungu has a history of stealing money,using violence to be President and when people say Lungu plans to rig elections we believe it and signs are all there to see.Lungu kept his Ministers in their posts illegally after Parliament was dissolved. All these issues have convinced most Zambians that Lungu cannot be trusted and…
PF will win because Eastern Province will give him a landslide. This has been the missing piece in the puzzle. HH is only in contention because of the tribal voting patterns in Southern Province.
Eastern Muchinga and Luapula Provinces gave ECL landslide votes in 2015 but Southern Province alone canceled out all three provinces.
Luapula
PF – 81, 289 | UPND – 10, 493
Muchinga
PF – 57, 291 | UPND – 7, 440
Eastern
PF – 88, 408 | UPND – 33, 882
Southern
PF – 20, 937 | UPND – 272,182
The key to winning is Lusaka and Copperbelt Provinces .Whoever wins these gets the presidency regardless of the outcomes in other provinces
Ba Independent – Yeah, because you still think that there will be no large turnout in the other provinces again.
I mean, there is one candidate who has won every single election on social media. Truth is that anyone using social media polls is either ignorant or stubbornly delusional. 11 million Zambians have no access to internet and these are the people who actually decide the election.
The other delusional one is MUV TV .what is their fake opinion this time around . Awe kulawayawaya fye
PF UPND Others
1. Luapula 80% 15% 5%
2. CBelt 70% 20% 10%
3. Central 50% 40% 10%
4. Lusaka 60% 30% 10%
5. Mchinga 75% 20% 5%
6. Northern 80% 15% 5%
7. Eastern 90% 5% 5%
8. Western 40% 50% 10%
9. Southern 20% 75% 5%
10. NWestern 40% 50% 10%
@ 1mbecile above
Stop abusing Chinese fake drugs.
I think you’ve missed it on central, western and southern
Premier you are wrong on Western province can be the same in Western PF has always gotten higher votes than South and N/western
Chansoni sana ask MUV TV will tell u abt that and they never do that again.
the voting pattern wont change infarct,they will be no apathy in PF’s strong holds and expect
more votes and looking at the way other tribe voted for themselves
,expect us also to vote the same.we have been telling them on that issue and its been received overwhelmingly.
Opinion polls are like anti hyper tension drugs for UPND. They need them otherwise kuti bakwata stroke abanesu.
By the way does UPND have campaign songs in the original language?
Naturally, you can understand Neo, he is UPND. You can understand Muvi TV, they are funded by HH. Opinion polls don’t win elections. Dreams, dreams! Kindly wait for the real poll on 8/11. Take heart for they day is nigh. The voting pattern in SP won’t gonna change any time sooner thus I know how not to give HH my vote.
Only blaming Muvi when Znbc are also busy doing the same