By Nic Cheeseman
For 24 hours rumours swirled through Zambia that President Edgar Lungu planned to institute a state of emergency.
When he finally took to the airwaves to make a special announcement he did something different. Invoking Article 31 of the constitution– Declaration Relating to Threatened Emergency – rather than Article 30 – Declaration of Public Emergency – the president requested extra powers to prevent a state of emergency rather than actually declaring one.
In practice, the difference between the two is slim. If, as expected, parliament approves his request he will have been given considerably more powers. He will be able to restrict movement of assembly, implement a curfew, curtail parliament, ban publications, order detention without trial, and search any property without a search warrant. As respected Zambian commentator Sishuwa Sishuwa has put it, this is effectively a “State of Threatened Emergency”.
The president’s decision to go with Article 31 is significant for a number of reasons. The first is that it allows the Zambian government to ward off criticism by being able to argue that it has not declared a state of emergency.
This is important because the Patriotic Front regime is in the process of negotiating a much needed economic bail out with the International Monetary Fund.
Presenting its authoritarian backsliding in a more palatable way is therefore extremely valuable. By opting for Article 31, Lungu hopes to have his cake and eat it. He will have secured powers to consolidate his political control while generating “plausible deniability” to whether or not he has fatally undermined Zambian democracy.
To some extent this strategy has been successful. Initial Facebook and twitter conversations about how the measure could be reversed quickly gave way to confusion and arguments about what the president had actually declared, and what it meant.
Why did Lungu do it?
The official reason behind the president’s request for extra powers is a spate of civil disobedience and arson that has seen a number of markets burnt down. The immediate trigger was a fire that destroyed the country’s largest, the City Market in Lusaka.
But the president’s claim to simply be acting in the interests of law and order has been fiercely contested by critics. Instead, opposition leaders allege that the government has been either taking advantage of natural fires or deliberately starting them to justify the extension of authoritarian control.
This claim is lent credibility by the fact that the investigation of the City Market fire had only just begun when the decision to expand the president’s powers was taken. Rumours circulating in Zambia suggest that in fact it resulted from an electrical fault rather than sabotage.
If this is true, it raises the question of what lies behind Lungu’s increasingly aggressive strategy. Three overlapping explanations are circulating, all of which have a degree of plausibility.
The first is that it’s simply another way of intimidating the opposition. In addition to arresting United Party for National Development leader Hakainde Hichilema, popularly known as HH, the government has tried various ways to clamp down on opposition to its rule. This has included the suspension of 48 opposition MPs.
And fears that Hichilema might be acquitted by the High Court, and subsequently released, are said to explain the timing of the president’s statement.
The second is that the president faces serious challenges within the Patriotic Front, where some question his suitability to lead. In addition to rumours that he is in bad health, this makes him potentially more vulnerable to internal opposition than to the challenge of the main opposition party. On this interpretation, Lungu’s appropriation of extra powers is designed as a warning to his rivals within the party to back off.
Finally, some see his decision as being motivated by his desire to secure a third term in office when his current term ends in 2021. The legality of this is questionable, and the move is fiercely opposed by opposition parties.
On their own, none of these claims fully explains why Lungu has opted for such a controversial move when IMF negotiations are at a delicate stage. In reality it may be that the president’s actions are explained by some combination of all three – or indeed, an alternative explanation that has not yet come to light.
What happens next?
There’s confusion about exactly where Lungu intends to go from here. In a presidential address in the last hour his stance appeared to harden, rejecting international criticism and stating that: “If they [IMF] think I am going astray, let them go.”
According to Nicole Beardsworth, a senior researcher at the University of the Witwatersrand’s Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation, Lungu’s declaration will give him additional powers. Moreover, if his statutory instrument is approved by Parliament, it can be extended for a period of months.
This would seem to give the president all the time and powers he would need to further cow internal and external opposition, although it’s still possible that he will seek to apply a full state of emergency.
What may prevent this from happening is concern within the cabinet that such a move would be unnecessary and counterproductive. Not all leaders of the Patriotic Front agree with the direction that Lungu is taking his country in. Push back in a cabinet meeting is said to have prevented an even more forceful declaration.
Given the president’s new found capacity to control the media and intimidate the opposition, these internal constraints may prove to be Zambia’s best hope of avoiding dictatorship.
The Author is a Professor of Democracy at University of Birmingham in the United Kingdom
In a multiparty set up like ours, how does any of this work if the President and effectively his party have more powers. Is this not just equivalent to a one party state?
This is absurd because we have seen an imbalance in the way the POA has been managed against opposition and now we have this so called some king of “State of Threatened Emergency” which will mean that the President will effectively try to manage the ‘Threatened peace’ with the police. Assembly by the opposition will be none existent because it will be construed as a potential threat to peace and they will not be allowed any meetings. Lungu thinks Zambians are dull and he can manipulate everything to his advantage. This is totally taking all Zambians for f00ls.
Disappointing Mr Nic, you honestly think that your analysis of Zambia or any other African country merits your logic? I would gladly challenge your analysis of misunderstood and pre-conceived notion of Africa and its leaders, especially those in Southern Africa, in particular Zambia. Go back to the drawing board and stop making such alarming comments in the comfort of your Birmingham office when you are actually not on the ground!. Very Disappointed, maybe try writing about the British Democracy!!!
Much as I agree that our democracy is not perfect I find it strange for scholar like professor to write article which is unresearched & which wouldn’t even qualify as a journalistic piece. Must be embarrassing even to University of Birmingham. Our president is our ultimate authority just like the queen or President Trump is for you. To describe the President’s reasons for declaring a state of threatened emergency as a mere claim when we are experiencing these things in Zambia & we know that public security is threatened is quite insulting. A scholar or journalist is obliged to write from facts & not speculation unless of course he’s being paid to say something. Challenge the facts & not whether our President should decide how you desire. God Bless Zambia
By the way, we actually have a Constitution which in Zambia which says the president can do what he’s done. He’s obliged to present he’s decision for approval by parliament. The composition of parliament is a function of our democracy. You can’t blame the President’s party for having a majority. If you are indeed a professor you would know that its always democracy whether it results in giving the republican or labour party in leadership an advantage or the opposition. It can’t be democracy only when it favours the opposition & dictatorship when it favours the ruling party. The problem is that you foreigners think that you have to control everything in Africa including our thinking & culture. Unfortunately for you God has a different & better plan for Zambia & Africa. Just wait &…
True Lombe. You are spot on. This article is actually belongs in the watchdog or other gutter journalism outlets not a mainstream analysis from a professor of democracy. Really poor and extremely disappointing. Just look at his mediocre analysis of why the president invoked article 31, BAD HEALTH?? Pathetic!!! Cheesman has exposed himself as a hired hand to champion the ulterior motives of those wanting regime change in Southern Africa because it doesn’t make sense for a person of his title to be repeatedly publishing fairytales and below par “analyses” about our country!!!
Most people have missed why Lungu has declared this semi-SOE, the is a growing questioning of where he actually comes from. The is a blank page in Lungu’s life story. No one has ever known where he went to primary school. His life only starts at High school at Mukuba Secondary in Kitwe, secondary he once said he was born in a hospital which was a hospital for whites only at that time (am sure he did not know).
Its time to find out where this man comes from….
What we are witnessing are the unintended consequences of illegitimacy!
This Lungu chap is illegitimate and he is holding onto that which does not belong to him, it’s clear. But this might not last. It does not smell right. Has he conveniently forgotten that Zambia is a multi party state? One of the first things Chiluba did when he fought for this democracy for years was to lift the State of emergency we lived under during Kaunda era for year to allow people to participate. Now Lungu is taking us backwards now that he has used the multi party politics to get into power and illegitimately. This man does not mean well. Kaunda used the same reasoning to bring about the one party state. In Lungu’s case this comes up on the back of a disputed election which was not even heard in the Courts. Lungu is covering his tracks after lying that there is no tension in…
Lungu is covering his tracks after lying that there is no tension in the country now he has gone back to say that there has been a series of things that have happened leading to the declaration to declare a ‘State of Threatened Emergency’. What he is saying does not add up. He is taking Zambians for rags.
Is this a professor or unprocessed cheese? Or a donkey maybe?
Is he Zambian or does he live in Zambia? No? Then tell him to shut his ignorance of Zambian affairs.
You must be a dug Beatle, all high on donkey poo, keep following the leader.
Call it what you want but Lungu is taking Zambians for rags.
I do remember a contribtution by Terrible without the word Donkey in it. He must be into bestiality.
Cheeseman, you must have forgotten to take some cheese for your breakfast before sharing your speculative fantasies to the world!! What ECL has done is solidly constitutional and any argument about injuring democracy is misplaced. If ECL were to simply sit back like nothing happened, the same Cheeseman will turn around and shout the loudest that the president has failed. Anyway any effective leader knows that whatever decision he takes there will be a Cheesman!
I am not saying that he should have not done anything by the way. We have had four presidents after Chiluba and none of this ever happened. Lungu needed to look at himself and he still has time to. As President you will have made it in life and what is important thereafter is you legacy. History will judge him harshly on all this even if he meant well and he was supposed to be a ‘humble man’. People often remember one for the bad things rather than the good they did. Look at the case of Chiluba with all the good things he gave us by risking his life to liberate Zambia from the shackles of Kaunda, he is mostly remembered for the third term and being a thief. Imagine for all the good that he did? I am actually having Jacobs mini cheddars, thank you.
Since when has rigging and STEALING an election been “solidly constitutional ” ??????
@ Cheeseman Analyser: I agree we’ve had 4 presidents after FTJ; in fact 6 presidents since independence including 2 sitting presidents who lost elections. Now tell the nation which one among them resorted to national destruction after losing an election! Not even Sata who also claimed to have had his victory stolen!!! So UPND please give us a break and wait for your turn IF AT ALL it will come!
Disappointing Mr Nic, you honestly think that your analysis of Zambia or any other African country merits your logic? I would gladly challenge your analysis of misunderstood and pre-conceived notion of Africa and its leaders, especially those in Southern Africa, in particular Zambia. Go back to the drawing board and stop making such alarming comments in the comfort of your Birmingham office when you are actually not on the ground!. Very Disappointed, maybe try writing about the British Democracy!!!
Or he is one of those racists who think they know everything that goes on in a black man. Surely ba UPNDonkeys, even if you are donkeys there has to be choice of who supports you. Your gullibility and lack of choice is what has caused your problems including losing an election that could have been yours for the taking. I mean just look at your choice of running mate, gbm of all donkeys!! were you seriously contesting the 2016 elections?
….I mean you could have given your U5 the chief Mukuni as his running mate, or Munkombwe or professor chakuti chakuti, you mean to say that tgere were not enough qualified people from U5’s tribal grouping or even a related grouping?
FRANCE HAS EXTENDED STATE OF EMERGENCY FOR THE SIXTH TIME
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The State of Emergency in France was declared in November 2015 after the Paris attacks.
However, the French lawmakers voted for the sixth time to extend the country’s state of emergency on Thursday as interior ministry said they will be closing three more mosques as part of the measures.
The newly elected parliament, dorminated by MPs from centrist President Emmanuel Macron’s new party, voted 137 in favor to 13 against to extend the state of emergency until November 2017.
A State of Emergency is invoked to grant special powers to the Executive in exceptional circumstances.
However, President Lungu of Zambia has only signed and proclaimed a situation that may lead to a state of public emergency.
In…
terrible , young man repent…. love JESUS AND USE KIND WORDS…. PROVERBS 15
From what you ve written ,I can understand that yes you are a foreigner and do not understand the underlining facts as to why the President has made this declaration, you are speaking like a foreigner really who not in Zambia, I understand that yes you do ve politics there in UK and you do a good job if had a good understanding of our situation like you do about the politics of Northern island ,but I will try to help you on two of the issues you ve raised, 1.Lungu is in a very strong position in his party remember he is in his first year of his five year team, 2.the declaration is meant to give him and the police a little bit more powers to work, the should not come after it’s known as to what is causing these problems.
Yes to give lungu and the police more powers to systematically destroy our democracy……
Stupid article
Pomparse and you compare France to Zambia. Grow up my boy. There is no comparison between the two countries for one and for two if you are comparing the terrorism in France to fires in Zambia you are intimating that ISIS is involved. Keep zambia on the oath it is going and real not perceived terrorists will see the opportunity to cause mayhem in Zambia. If we find pil or gas watch the terrorists flock to this divided nation
“….Not all leaders of the Patriotic Front agree with the direction that Lungu is taking his country in…”
You are wrong…..lungu and RB have coward the lot of them and all they look for is a opportunity to loot.
What a Professor! These are the chaps who know more and more about less and less until they know everything about nothing. Like the Cheese in his name, I think he has holes in his brains. Stupid analysis indeed.
…kwekwekwekwekwe…you hit it on the head, bro…kwekwekwekwe….
Why is this Professor of Democracy fixated on Zambia? One would that it is because he is a champion of democracy – nope, the chap was here during elections supporting the opposition — which lost clean and the man is not happy.
This article is well articulated.
Ni zeeeee……………..zeeeeeee maningi……shhhhhhhhhhhhhh
This article’s claim is supported by unsubstantiated speculations. Why speculations? Because all your facts are coming from sources in the international media that are relayed by the party bent on making Zambia UNGOVERNABLE for Edigar Lungu after winning 2016 Elections. IMF speculation, HH acquittal speculation, PF infighting speculation, Cabinet disagreements speculation, etc! I know that as a professor of political science, you can’t rule out critics, and they are there to check your publications. Have you ever been to Zambia and any other three or four African countries? If so, you would easily understand that all these despotic speculations and lies are strategies employed by Hichilema who has ruled the ‘so called DEMOCRATIC UPND’ for close to 20 years.
The 2016 presidential and parliamentaly elections were conducted concurrently and results offically announced together. UPND lost the presidential, but won over 40 seats in the 155 seats parliament; it accepted the parliamentary seats but called the elections body “corrupt” for “stealing the presidency” from Hichilema. That is where all these state of emergency and squabbles are coming from. Zambia has always enjoyed peace when former presidents, Kenneth Kaunda and Rupia Banda, accepted defeat. Hichilema refuses to accept the defeat, the whole ‘political and media’ world is now tugge with him into this frenzy….
If lungu won what is so hard about proving he won ? Would the election numbers and results have changed after 14 days ???
This so called Professor is an embarrassment to the academic fraternity! He ought to have known that at his level, he is not supposed to publish an article which is not scientifically researched! The crap he has written is only fit for a dustbin because he has just compiled some emotionally attached comments from social media and he presents that as a prevailing situation in Zambia? My fat ass! What a joker of a professor!
Surely, any professor worth his/her salt must present facts which must be empirically verified and not based on people’s emotions and opinions!
I think this so called professor’s PhD Thesis need to be remarked by a panel of distinguished scholars!
All of you critiscising this article dont understand that the international bofies are at a loss how a person, lungu, who claims he won an election, would rather be called a theif and govern over a divided country than simply accept the opposition petition and show the nation he won in a court ??? What is so hard about proving your win.
As the saying goes , if an accused rapist refuses a DNA test , he has something to hide……
Going by the various emotional and childish outbursts ,the article has indeed struck a cord. I am now waiting for the chosen one and the Zambian citizen to write their rebuttals. But then again they could just be in the category of educated illiterates.
Come on Cheesman. Your allegations and suppositions are not supported by evidence. You seem to have a biased stand against the gov’t. All this article is reworking and explaining things in a patronising way to supposed Readers you presume want your expertise on Zambian matters.
Irrespective of your suspicions, buildings have been burnt down and it would be irresponsible for the state to do absolutely nothing to stem the spate of crimes being committed. Start writing when Citizens start burning down UPND homes and that will happen if we do nothing to control the violence against citizens.
Could the fires be state sponsored lies and terror like the aledeged bweengwa kidnappings ????