By Prince Ndoyi
My most immediate reaction to the honorous defeat of the UPND in the Chilanga By election by our alliance partners PF, is that they must quickly self introspect. They cannot wean off and pretend nothing happened or else this is the beginning of the end for UPND.
Under normal circumstances irrespective of who stood on UPND, the result wouldn’t have changed. Could it be that the party is fatigued by the leadership and its errors? In fact, Charmaine Musonda had a better chance of winning the seat given the status quo. Someone else would have lost to PF by 2pm.
Well before the actual election and the selection of candidates for both UPND and PF, the self acclaimed father of quantitative election analysis, Zambian Watchdog predicted a huge loss for UPND on the basis of nothing but the poor selection of the candidate.
After the elections many are blasting the UPND leadership for being tone-deaf: “A metaphor about a car in the ditch when people are in trouble and angry, it’s just out of touch with what’s going on,”
Why did the Chilanga voters vote like that? The truth is that voters don’t have anything like coherent preferences. Most people pay little attention to politics; when they vote, if they vote at all, they do so irrationally and for contradictory reasons. Ordinary citizens like those in Chilanga have preferences about what the government ought to do; they elect leaders who will carry out those preferences and vote against those who will not; in the end, we’re left with a government that more or less serves the majority.
Even voters who pay close attention to politics are prone — in fact, more prone — to biased or blinkered decision-making. The reason is simple: Most people make political decisions on the basis of social identities and partisan loyalties, not an honest examination of reality. So why did they vote this way?
Was this disaster caused by reactions to the awful leadership and choice of candidate —or the economy that HH and his UPND believes only he can save, but not sufficiently to please voters? But even if it was not about the economy, there’s no guarantee that 2021 will be any better. The economy may not improve—in part because if PF are to have any hope of turning things around in the economy, a lot has to change, fast. The only thing missing with PF is a “Mission Accomplished” banner.
At face value, losing Chilanga is signal enough that the party needs to answer the ever pending difficult question about the future and a leadership test at a democratically set convention.
We cannot divorce a parliamentary by election from the party president. We operate in a Presidential system, that’s why in African politics and democracy its almost easier to predict a winner in a general election from the Presidential candidate who gets more Members of Parliament. Because the voting pattern is almost linear in both instances; Presidential and parliamentary candidates.
There is a looming leadership crisis in UPND, and UPND will do themselves a de-service to ignore it. UPND’s failed strategy is the same too. Thats why this talk about 2021 sole candidates is somewhat a dangerous and slippery path for all political parties in Zambia especially for UPND while losing elections(seats).
Politically speaking: where does UPND go from here? The party is losing support from virtually their demographic superior grounds. An impressive electoral map that UPND enjoyed in 2016 is slowly evaporating. They are on a downward spiral and shrewd politicians like GBM can sense danger already.
As young democrats, we need to make it clear that for anyone to be a leader of any Democratic agenda they must be democrats themselves— and all indications are that he or she needs to renew their mandate with their members— or else they will advance that agenda anyway, with or without his/her help. UPND as a party has to be ready to delink their political fate from Hakainde Hichilema, and make it clear that they won’t tolerate further undermining of their goals by deluded calls for no intra party elections.
How far should delinking from HH go? There is no obvious contender to mount a primary challenge, which is in itself a testimony to democratic weakness within UPND. But the possibility is clearly there, and both will and should become a reality if HH and his hand picked leadership follows a path of capitulation.
In 2006, many UPND members fell for the fantasy of hope on the cheap; they believed HH’s promises to lead the party in a democratic manner and possibly form government. It was not to be, and clinging to that illusion will only lead to more defeats. If progressives want to rebound, they’ll have to fight. MMD did it, though painfully but it was done and a dictator Nevers Mumba is no more, only the future will tell.
We think people’s preferences are complex and the way they bring them to bear in politics is complex like they have done in Chilanga and that’s part of what needs to be understood by UPND soon enough constructively in improving their political process. The truth is that Chilanga is communicating something not only to UPND but PF inclusive, especially the opposition ahead of 2021. Strategies and rhetorics must change.
Get lost Prince. You talking nonsense.
Musonda has a better chance of winning for UPND and they lost because of HH? What are you smiling you little toad.
You are wrong and delussional.
Moronic analysis by a good for nothing worthless man
Thanks
BB2014,2016
Ndoyi needs to find a job.
All you id1ots know nothing about the Mugabe rigging machine which PF is using.
PF won because they rigged, imported voters and used violence to defeat UPND.
Even the British high commissioner acknowledged the PF violence in the presence of the police stooges.
With this kind of rigging only a revolution will remove Lungu and his cronys from power and thats needs to happen.
Lungu must go by any means possible.
@wanzele the violence the Brit Hc wrote about was referring to the thugs in Red party regalia. If those elections were in typical southern pro , deaths were even going to be recorded. Your tribal friend spaka and 5tupid jj acknowledged that the polls were free and fair and no rigging. Even your tribal leader never said anything about rigging and you a little minion wants to mislead good people with your wild but vague reasons. Grow up musankwa.
Remove emotions and criticize constructively. Insults gain you nothing.
Any thing labeled PF has become a disgrace.
Look at ZANU PF primary elections ended farcically amid reports of massive vote-rigging defeat of party bigwigs, while some losing candidates seized and burnt the ballot papers, as they threatened to rally their supporters to back opposition party candidates in protest over the way the internal polls were held.
Provincial elections officer, Sydney Nyanungo said they would soon order a re-run following a stalemate.
“I don’t want to call it a re-run, but there is a stalemate because of the method that was used to distribute the ballot papers … the ballot papers were exposed, which means somebody could have duplicated (sic) because they ended up with excess ballot papers and that is the problem we are rectifying.”
Members allege that some…
Continued //
Members allege that some candidates bussed people from other areas, some used their own voters’ roll and other candidates’ names were not on the ballot papers.
Shame! Can you trust them to rin national polls, NO, NO, NO.
Mwayambapo!!!
I for once agree with Mushota about this Ndoyi; while I am not a supporter Charmaine or Langa; it is delusional to to think that HH should be delinked from UPND;
THIS AS GOOD AS ADVOCATING A ONE PARTY STATE BY DEFAULT, WILL BE TALKING ABOUT WAYAYA NEXT LIKE CHINA.
Which party in Zambia is democratic at the moment? PF is leading the way with cars already branded now with same candidate for 2023.
# 2 Wanzelu, the British High commissioner did not say “PF violence”, he said only “violence” by party cadres which intimidated the voters. In a upnd stronghold there can be no intimidating violence by any PF or even intimidating police presence.
Don’t you wonder h.h or Stephen Katuka do not mention the comments by the British High Commissioner? In fact it is possible that His Excellency Cochrane-Dyet was comparing the unarmed friendly looking policeman (fondly called Bobby by British citizens) to our police in full riot gear heavily armed with teargas and assault rifles. Ask the High Commissioner how else tge red terrorists of h.h and Gbm can be contained in their strongholds.
The High Commissioner knows it’s Upnd who were behind the violence but diplomatic etiquette forbids him from mentioning them. Remember the accusations leveled against the UN Rep?
No,UPND should not delink HH from their party now as doing so would make 2021 elections difficult for PF to win!!!HH is a seasoned loser who should be kept by UPND so that PF can easily hand him a record 6th presidential defeat in 2021!!!WE ENJOY SO MUCH SEEING KAINDE LOSE ELECTIONS!!!so minus him,elections could become boring!!!
I simply cant see how HH’s UPND could win in 2021 in Lusaka,Copperbelt,Luapula,Northern,Muchinga and Eastern where he has failed to win since 2006!!This is why ECL is now visiting Western and N/Western very often to win more souls there and reduce HH’s voters!!!PF should not worry about votes in 6.5 provinces because results from recent by elections confirm that PF is very intact in its strongholds,A THING WHICH IS GIVING HH SLEEPLESS NIGHTS!!!
Forget about Western province
Kkkkkkkkkkkk……i heard HH telling his UPND leadership at his chalala home after losing Chilanga seat to PF “do voters in Zambia live here and see what we in UPND see?” He continued “if they live here,how can they continue voting for PF sure?”……kkkkkkkkkk ….then i told myself inside “ATI WAMUZIBA YESU LELO KAINDE….THOSE ARE ZAMBIAN VOTERS FOR YOU…!!” It is becoming clear by day that HH would need a miracle to rule Zambia!!People such as GBM,Mutale Nalumango,Mrs.Guy Scott and Sylvia Masebo are even losing hope!!GBM has lost weight.Mulenga Sata Dr.Guy Scott and Maureen Mwanawasa have already ditched HH!!!IT IS SO DARK IN UPND TODAY!!!The hot political momentum which UPND had before 11/08/2016 is long gone!!UPND IS JUST A SHELL OF ITSELF NOW WHILE IT IS ROSES IN ECL’S PF…
All these little people tell UPND how to run his party, are they successful in their little partys or organisation? PF HAS RIGGED ELECTIONS FROM THE WORD GO. iF THE 2011 ELECTIONS WERE NOT RIGGED upnd WOULD BE BATTLING AGAINST mmd. bY ALL RIGHTS upnd SHOULD BE THE GOVERNING PARTY NOW IF THE PLAYING FIELD WERE EVEN. LOOK AT 2016 ELECTIONS, WERE THEY FAIR AND FREE? PF IS FIGHTING DIRTY AND THAT IS HOW THEY WIN ELECTIONS, NOT BY POPULARITY BUT BY RIGGING AND INTIMIDATION.
It is a known fact that violence played a big part in the outcome of Chilanga elections. what baffles me is that the police command was boasting they had sent over 1000 policemen to manage this elections. i may not point fingers on who perpetuated the violence but the past has shown us that when it is the opposition, the police are quickly to crush them down but in this election, violence happened in full view of the police, then who do you think was behind this violence? i guess your answer is the same with mine. Violence may work for you toady but don’t forget, the same violence will take u away. Ask Kabimba
WHO clobbered Prime TV reporters?
To the author of the story, you seem to have something beyond personal hatred for HH. I say so coz this is not the first time you are coming out so strong against the individual. In politics, the only thing you can do is not to vote for that person if you do not like them. exhibiting so much hatred for someone is dangerous to your health. Hatred is silent poison that will eat you with time. Form a party and challenge HH instead if you feel you are any better
Well observed Mwelwa, you can’t believe that these are the same people who want us to join them in prayers when it suits them, just to fool the masses. Even their children wonder how we ended up with such dishonest, deceit, lying, fraudulent elements of our society. Would you last a day in other walks of life with this level hate. Reflect on your life, seek help if need be. Volunteer your precious time helping the sick and orphans.
This write up lost credibility immediately the writer described the PF as “our alliance partners”.I do agree that there must be great demoralization and thus, a need for introspection in UPND after loosing consistently.But why only UPND? We must not forget that UPND is not the only opposition.There are numerous other opposition parties but none has made any significant traction in the political space to suggest alternatives.The political dynamics today are static and the reason is voter apathy.Voters,especially the young seem disinterested in political activity because they are fragmented by emerging new lifestyles and technologies.PF is wining (and marginally so) because it has access to resources that can make it mobilize and sensitize its most ardent supporters to vote because they…
have the most to loose as the ruling party. Thats why I have asserted that the adoption of the ZNBC as the PF preferred campaign platform is a smart move.It has the greatest reach to the grassroots,it speaks all the major languages and it is cheap.Meanwhile,anyone for innovative voter/civic education?If the Electoral Commission of Zambia is unable,perhaps it can be an item on the forthcoming inter-party dialog agenda because currently,only die-hard supporters are motivated enough to go to the polling stations
thats a poor analysis by the writer of this article . where were you not to see the violence which characterized the chilanga by elections . does it mean that when you loose a constituency seat , then everything is not okay in the party . thats just a constituency for you your base your points on . you look like you are a sponsored . leave UPND team , concentrate on your party
The PF want to impose their puppet on UPND so that they control him / her whenever they want. The total no. of registered voters is about 40 000 and only 14 000 plus voted is this health no. Where are the other 26 000 plus voter? Transferred, relocated or they are no more, no apathy at it’s best, can you celebrate no.
By-elections always record low voter turnout. But being a UPND stronghold, low voter turnout should have favored the UPND. However, due to poor strategy by your Party leadership, you lost. Trying to find excuses to console yourselves will just help you to continue losing.
What surprises me its how these advisors on political scene come out in public. Today PF has no leadership but to tgeir shock, it is winning, tomorrow Up and Down has no leadership reason they are loosing. Why talk in public about how this or that party can not do better. Why not form yours and see how good yo can do own your own. Stop talking about others trials. Bring out yours, Ndoyi…nee!
Red! Party of evil and fires!
Evil-hearted couple.
Now why would I worry if h.h and his upnd party collapse or implode or whatever? Let them go out of my sight.
Oval head I really appreciate you comments but what is disgusting is talking about tribes. Please Zambians stop it you will put this country in problems the fact that you undermine other tribes means your are tribal as well. Please Zambians let us be careful I repeat this REMEMBER RWANDA you fools
Kikikikikikikikiki Kikikikikikikikiki yaba,i like so much when i here the under 5 boys crying Kikikikikikikikiki Kikikikikikikikiki
Strong signal for 2021ka.
You are still crying mpakafwe
Yes I agree with Tongas , rigging was there in Southern, Western and North-Western provinces in 2016, perpertrated by UPND and its HH, non-Tongas were chased from polling stations in Southern province so that votes could be manipulated in favour of UPND and HH! They succeeded! Remember Dundumwezi , HH 47000, ECL 200. Is it practically possible for such results, Tongas! That’s were you have lost it all Tongas! People are fearing you! Your strategy was to inflate figures in favour of HH in the three provinces so that he could win, but God doesn’t work like that! We are ready for you in 2021, we now know your tricks!