Turkish Eurobond bailout is not likely to take-off-Sinkamba

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Green Party President Peter Sinkamba with Finance Minister Mrs. Mwanakatwe
Green Party President Peter Sinkamba with Finance Minister Mrs. Mwanakatwe

Green Party President Peter Sinkamba says the Turkish Eurobond bailout is not likely to take-off because of deteriorating trade war between Turkey and the United States.

And Mr. Sinkamba says the Zambian Government should just as well forget about the Turkish bailout due to rapid decay in the Turkish economy.

He has since advised the Zambian Government to come to terms with realities by seriously considering other options to sort out the Eurobond gig-saw puzzle.

“At the moment, the Turkish Eurobond bailout is a non-starter. The economy of that country has gotten into serious shambles following President Trump’s doubling of trade tariffs on aluminum and steel. The Turkish lira has since been hit hard forcing it to slide rapidly downwards against the US dollar,” Mr. Sinkamba said.

He cited the recent move by the Turkish government to slash its economic growth forecast for this year from 5.5% to 4% as proof that things are deteriorating in Turkey.

“The slump is likely to be much worse if the trade was fallout and currency confidences are not restored quickly. This can be deduced from the expression of concern by the European Central Bank about eurozone banks’ exposure to Turkey arising from the rapid loss of value of the lira.

“Believe you me, Turkey is sliding into a debt crisis. The writing is clearly on the wall for all to see,” Mr. Sinkamba said.

He said that the unfolding scenarios will force Turkey to implement not only currency controls but also ask for a bailout from the International Monetary Fund.

He cited the recent move by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who urged the Turkish people to exchange dollars and euros for lira in order to defend the currency as a signal of the beginning of tight currency and monetary measures.

“The measure announced by Erdogan last week to defend the currency is a signal of the beginning to tighter currency and monetary policy controls. There is every reason to believe that the Turkish government may soon introduce emergency interest rate hikes during the current currency crisis as a means to provide short-lived reliefs. There is also every reason to believe the Turkish government may restrict export of hard currency from that country,” he added.

“If economic events in Turkey continue on this trajectory, then the Zambian Government should forget about the anticipated Eurobond bailout. Currency intervention measures will definitely make any Eurobond bailout from Turkey to be way too expensive for Zambia to contemplate.

“Secondly, data from the Bank for International Settlements show eurozone banks have loans worth over $150 billion in Turkey which they plan to recall soon. So, Turkey will soon be forced to marshal all resources available to sort out its own loans. For this reason, I doubt that the Turkish government will prioritize sorting out Zambia’s Eurobond loans rather than sort out its own serious mess,” Mr. Sinkamba said.

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50 COMMENTS

  1. I don’t like this Sinkamba. His existence and political views disturb me.

    Either he has a problem or I do.

    Any room would be too small for the both of us at any time.

    I don’t like his kind.

    Thanks

    BB2014,2016

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    • @Mushota. I think it is you who has a problem. You cherish petty issues. He has no time for petty issues. He thinks big. That is your point of departure.

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    • It is sad that mushota has gone abroad only to be stuck indoors to a life of blogging kiki. Just come back home mune. We know you are not wanted there. with Brexit and the far right movement on the rise things are looking grim. why force yourself where you are not wanted? Myself am currently on holiday visiting a few countries in europe with my swiss wife. We settled in zambia many moons ago and life is good and much easier here. As UPND strategist and advisor I have opportunity to travel widely in zambia as well as abroad. Please our country needs you. come back home

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    • Sinkamba has a point. Legalize it. Grow the economy. End poverty. End nkongoles. As simple as that.

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    • RIGHT ON POINT PS, THE WHITE HOUSE IS ON RAMPAGE TO MAGA. ZAMBIA BETTER LOOK FOR OPTIONS.
      =============================
      Trump is really on the heels. I feel for Turkey. Let is not burden the worrying Turkey’s economy with our Eurobond thing. Good observation Peter.

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    • Most characters who dislike honest people are very dishonest and lack integrity. This is an indication of how low morals have sunk. A few weeks ago somebody suggested president of the National Restoration Party Chipimp could not win an election because he is too honest, unless he joined one of the crooked parties. I said to myself, Lesa wandy we are really in troubled waters.

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    • Turkey’s problems go beyond troubled finances, their currency is falling like the Zambian Kwach in the 80s.

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    • You said right Mushota, you have a problem. The man has read the lines very well of Turkeys future economic mess and if you cant appreciate that then you are demented.

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  2. Only those with a low IQ expected a bailout from a country like Turkey like the current Party in office whose head of the snake is EC Lungu.

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    • Turkey’s economy is likely to be in deep trouble. They’ve been secretly giving more loyalty to Russia with a small economy than with USA with the biggest economy and wants to be friends with Turkey region strategic reasons. Now that USA is tired of Turkish Govt behavior, crazy Trump just launched a trade war with Turkey. How the hell did ECL think Turkey can give him a bailout. Modern world wide economy, it’s going to be every country for it’s self unless they’re benefiting.

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    • Its laughable how dingbats think Lazy Lungu will steer them out of his mess…the lazy man can not even show himself via press conference.

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  3. This crises is short term. Trump asked Turkey to release a pastor who is spy.

    Turkey declined. Trump said you will see.

    Thats how childish Trump is

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    • @Am a Villager. It is not short term, the Lira has been deteriorating for a long time now. It was 1.54 Lira to the USD in mid 2011, it is now more than 6.00 Lira to the dollar. Trump’s rantings may have pushed it a bit but not that much. Erdogan’s answer to the Turkish people is that God will help. Sort of explains the friendship between ECL and TRE. They both believe in miracles. You have to hand it to TRE though, despite the troubles, his country functions. Zambians can only dream of that.

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    • Adding insult to injury Erdogan ushered in the new, executive presidential system he had long campaigned for by putting his son-in-law in charge of the economy and promising a greater overhaul of a country he has dominated for 15 years. Markets are sensitive to such recklessness.

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  4. “beggars begging from beggars”. This is what one of the largest copper producing countries in the world has been reduced to. All because we have decided time and again to allow incompetent thugs to run our country. This calls for deep reflection before the next election. Whilst HH and the UPND are called satanists and every name under the sun, one cant help but think that the satans are those that have put you in this situation. Future generations will live to pay off all these debts because a few selfish rats think they are entitled to deep their hands in our coffers! Now let us wait for the monkeys like ndanje and crew to come here and defend this rubblsh

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    • Btw iwe kunda we should meet when am back in zambia.. we need to work together to bring change. dont just hide in the states

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  5. Turkey’s economy at the moment is worse than ours. The lira is on a freefall. There is no way that Turkey can offer a baleout package to zambia as at now or in the near future as it will take a long time for them to recover. It is like the blind leading the blind.

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  6. “ONLY A DONGA MUST LEAD UPND” says Sejani. Mr. Kudos you have broken my ribs at UPND 2021 campaign unlikely to take off kkkkkkkkkkkkk

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  7. “ONLY A DONGA MUST LEAD UPND” says Sejani. Mr. Sinkamba may be correct but the Turkish economy is not like most African economies, Zambia’s included. Turkey does not only trade with US, it has so many major trading partners including Russia that can help resuscitate the economy quickly enough as if it was not in ICU. Economically speaking this is just a temporal hiccup for the Turkish economy which will be dealt with prudently. However, like what the golden leaf smoker sinkamba has alluded to, it is more prudent for the PF government to look at other options to cast the net widely than carrying all the eggs in one basket. Mr. sinkamba at least speaks with substance unlike tribalist HH, who is just bitter and power hungry.

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  8. South Africa sets up supermarkets for you,China builds infrastructure for you ,Libya runs your Zamtel ,Europeans own your mines,USA gives you AIDS drugs and now Turkey to bail you out of debt…

    Does Zambian society run anything or do anything of note for themselves.

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    • Double h privatized your assets for his pocket. Unless you diversify your economy, “your copper” which was sold by FTJ and double h won’t be bailing you out anymore. Like one Magande pointed out, why the hell would you start worrying about 2022 repayment maturing deal now? ECL is on top of things. He will sort this out soon. Bring Mutati back at MoF. Damn 2022 is like a year after ECL wires double h the 3rd election year running. ECL better have a plan.

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    • At thorn in the matak0: hh has never been in any zambian government. Is this not why you call him under five? So how did he sell zambian government assets? Do u see how f00lish u look?

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  9. PS is right if this was not already known…
    I think alternatives bailouts will be exhobitant and will defiantly strangle Zambia for decades to come. All other options know , the chinese own most of Zambia for years to come.
    Instead of borrowing GRZ should look at almost total import substitutions to create more jobs and to export. ….starting with all GRZ uniforms.

    On Turkey , edogan is just too much of a Muslim patriot , loved by his people , despised by isreal and the Zionists in the white house….all this started with trukey accusing the usa of quetly supporting a coup against edogan….this is not the end game for turkey, they occupy too a strategic position to let them slide into chaos…and edogan has threatened to find other friends…they are a proud people them Turks…

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  10. @NÈZ NEW EDUCATED ZAMBIA
    Dont fall pray to these paid LT bloggers.They are always on LT and facebook trying to defend this dying horse called ECL.
    Engaging them in meaningful debate is a sheer waste of time.I’m sure their performace is measured on how much they can spin the truth or distract people from it.
    Ignore them,their end is near.

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    • …how does a dying horse start winning by-elections in upnd strongholds?? How does your upnd fail to field a candidate in a by-election?? It’s either you are living in the watchdog utopia where hh is becoming more popular or your hate for Edgar Lungu has compromised your reasoning. IT’S BLEAK FOR KAINDE AS HE HAS MESSED UP THE OPPOSITION PARTY WITH HIS UNREASONABLE EGO. Live in the real world.

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    • Even mugabe was winning in MDC strongholds even zuma was winning in non ANC strongholds …..thry are now facing courts or their spouses are …

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  11. This is being clueless about financing mechanisms and economic dynamics. India a quite poor country with jaw knag wing slums has a businessman who saw a good opportunity in investing in KCM. Many of the subscribers of the Eurobond are from countries poorer than Turkey even poorer than Zambia but subscribed to the Eurobond to make money. UPND cadres think the Eurobond is just Western Europe money.

    The Turkish businessmen despite the economic turbulence have seen an opportunity rolling the Zambia Eurobond. Just what is US$750m on the scale of Turkey’s economy? Change for many of its corporations. Shut-up if all you have is envy for the boldness of Pf to lift this country up.

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    • “….Shut-up if all you have is envy for the boldness of Pf to lift this country up….”

      Lift up where ? Lungus bank account ?
      You are begging for a bail out after blowing $17 billion ati lift up ?

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  12. Zambian politician are complete retards. How can you even think of getting money from an economy like Turkey.

    It just reflects the African thinking – People think Thant anyone light skinned is better than black!!!. Though light skinned, Turkish are messed up line most east Europeans.

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  13. PF are too used of borrowing and sharing out tenders to think straight….how many light bulbs , solar panels and plug sockets attached to electrical units does Zambia import ? Most using Zambian copper in the first place ….have all those manufactured in Zambia…..add all GRZ uniforms to that list……massive employment and import savings = more GRZ funds abound….there will be no need for borrowing….but the PF and lungus mindset of wanting everything done by the private sector must stop…we are where we are because of this thinking.

    The China man will not willingly take jobs away from mainland China. China will only open industries that have local competition , not industries where manufacturing is done only in china . GRZ needs a leading role to change this.

    The first…

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    • The first thing the Chinese did to colonize Africans is take away their chitenge industries and move them to China, the cloths our mothers used to cover them selves and carry us as babies on their backs , from that point on , they owned our lands….if you look at african countries
      That still have traditional textile manufacture , the chinese are not as rampant in those countries as those like Zambia where our birth cloth the chitenge is only made in China…#.bring back out textile industry

      ..food for thought.

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  14. See how a Head of State can look inept in just a few days? Now automatically, the Zambia Eurobond loses more value and Zambia has to pay at higher rates. Now the performance of the Turkish economy is tied to the Zambia Eurobond. Leave financial decisions to that Felix Mutati guy of yours, he is better at it. The last time Head of State acted as finance minister, he got the country to make a guarantee for a South African company. How sad.

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  15. Sinkamba you have left out the part where Zambia is totally at the mercy of trumps trade war…….we pray the global economy goes not collapse and China still has apitite for copper….

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  16. flag Alternative Facts Fake News S**thole Countries Social Mobility Chinese Zambia Police Reservists Corruption scandals: Ambulances Fire Trucks Mukula Trees Ndola-Lusaka Rd Malawi Maizegate Fuelgate Swaziland landgate Zesco Loans

    Go to CNN and read: “Turkey’s currency crisis rattles global markets

    h_t_t_p_:_/_/_money.cnn._c_o_m/2018/08/12/investing/turkish-lira-currency-crisis/index._h_t_m_l (remove ‘_’ underscores)

    Those are the people cr00ked Chagwa Lungu was asking for bailout money assistance.

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  17. There are more Risks in Turkish Zambia Bond Refinancing :

    No. 1. Beyond foreign exchange

    Even though the focus these days is on how much the currency moves, Turkey’s predicament extends well beyond the foreign-exchange market. Currencies overshoot quite often, especially in emerging economies, and not just on the way down

    No. 2. Imbalances have been around for a while

    By persistently stimulating its economy through credit and, more recently, the budget, Turkey has accumulated twin deficits –– that is, imbalances in both its public-sector budget and in the current account of the balance of payments.

    No. 3. The external environment has turned less hospitable

    Although financing needs remain considerable, Turkey is now facing a more challenging external…

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  18. environment

    No. 4. Investors have doubts about Turkey’s policy responses

    The country’s situation is further complicated by concerns about economic management. Amid significant political pressure, confidence is low that the central bank is in a position to deliver decisive market-based measures to stabilize the currency

    No. 5. The country lacks credible external anchors

    The conventional response for countries facing these or similar conditions is to look for one or more external anchors pending the strengthening of domestic policies. Usually, this entails a program with the International Monetary Fund that provides both financing and a seal of good housekeeping for domestic policies

    No. 7. Growing chatter about capital and convertibility controls

    It’s not a great surprise…

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  19. that there is now more talk domestically about the possibility of Turkey implementing capital controls to limit outflows and counter the dollarization of the economy

    I think this Turkish bailout is closed It doesn’t make sense and support already the gains made and in the quest for Zambia’s long-term Investments Any point above is negative for the refinancing

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