President Lungu's Rally at Shifwankula grounds in Chunga Ward of Katuba Constituency to drum up support for a PF Candidate
File:President Lungu’s Rally at Shifwankula grounds in Chunga Ward of Katuba Constituency to drum up support for a PF Candidate

The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has again projected that the Patriotic Front is likely to retain power in 2021 but warned that the government will become increasingly unpopular as a result of economic mismanagement and deepening autocracy.

According to its latest country report for Zambia, the EIU projected that PF would retain power after the 2021 polls but warned that the country would face substantial threats and simmering popular frustration over economic and political grievances, which might turn violent.

The run-up to the 2021 legislative and presidential elections will be an especially unstable period, during which a vulnerable government will narrow the political space aggressively and escalate crackdowns.

“The run-up to the 2021 legislative and presidential elections will be an especially unstable period, during which a vulnerable government will narrow the political space aggressively and escalate crackdowns. In late August, Zambia’s Registrar of Societies banned the National Democratic Congress (NDC), a small opposition party, which broke away from the ruling PF [after the 2016 elections]. The Zambian authorities are frequently accused by opposition parties of influencing the agency’s decisions. The NDC unsettled the PF in April by winning a by-election for the Roan Parliamentary constituency in Copperbelt Province, a PF stronghold. Its deregistration was therefore seen as an attempt to reinforce the ruling party’s hold on power. Such moves will undermine political stability by feeding into public fears that Zambia is staggering towards autocracy, exacerbating underlying social tensions. Another layer of potential risk emanates from the burgeoning influence of China in Zambia’s affairs, with growing popular suspicion that to secure debt relief, the government plans to sell key state assets to China,” EIU reported.

And EIU projected that Zambia’s fiscal policy between now and the year 2021 would remain unsustainable.

“We continue to forecast that spending will remain unsustainably high in 2019-21, albeit declining as a share of GDP from 2021 onwards, owing to stronger nominal GDP growth that year. In 2019-21, expenditure will remain driven by foreign-debt-financed capital outlays and debt servicing. Spending as a whole will drop significantly onwards from 2022, following elections in 2021.”

“Only in 2022, with foreign liquidity pressures mounting will capital spending be cut back, and high debt-servicing costs will continue to crowd out wage spending and subsidies. We expect revenue to fall in 2019 (in nominal terms) as an increase in mineral royalty rates (plus a new top rate), a delay in implementing a new sales tax until January 2020 and the scrapping of VAT rebates for mining companies backfires, with the sector reducing output. However, rising copper prices during 2020-23 will encourage a gradual recovery in production and raise overall revenues during the 2020-23 period (the slowing of the Chinese economy amid escalating global trade tensions represents a downside risk to this forecast),” EIU reported.

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65 COMMENTS

    • I Can also predict that UPND can win in 2021 only if HH is replaced by another candidate!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! People like UPND but they do not like HH…………………

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    • Elections are rigged all over the world including the USA….nothing new…people’s vote doesn’t count….shame

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    • Another term for PF bandits will be the end of Zambia…..these guys will steal and sell everything including the Victoria Falls….they’ve already started selling our wildlife animals

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    • I don’t need to read this report to tell that Upndead is losing 2021 polls.
      There no way Zambians can go for a homosexual, tribal, privatization and lucifarian Party.
      Only one man has dented the entire party with his deeds and association.
      His chief support chief’ee Mukuni knowa about it.
      His hooligan goons on this platform know about it.
      All Zambians in the 10 provinces know about it.
      I definitely undoubtedly assuredly know about it.
      We will be working to retire Chief’ee Mukuni’s son h² once and for all. Besides, the nigga is aging fast. I hope he doesn’t start plastic surgery.

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    • It’s a no brainer. Now would be a good time for the Homosexual supporter (HH) to quit.
      I hear they’re posturing Mutinta to lead UPND after 2021?

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    • It’s 50+2 bwana, you guys are not intelligent enough.
      PF will only win with help of witchcraft, besides they now out hunting for pythons for breakfast.

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    • “Increasingly unpopular?” They should have added that by HAZALUZA HAGAN and his tribal henchmen of UPND because they CANNOT win an election.

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    • Misleading headline. Report is talking about autocracy and what could happen if not countered. I don’t see PF winning in a free and fair election. Nada.

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    • Very true. In the wake of these HOMO allegations, I can’t agree more. On March 5, 2018 UPND claimed Africa Liberal Network ALN) had no gay agenda when in actual fact they do. What the hell is UPND doing as a member in an organization that supports LGBT rights? It means they also do support gayism. Am disappointed.

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    • The Big question people need to ask is who is in the so called the EIU, when did they do the survey, what question did they pose to the public, where are the survey findings. You cannot just concoct ideas in your head and say A or B will win without giving the people the basis of your opinion.

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    • Who cares about who wins if people are happy with the status quo and fear to take risks like the likes of now rich business people who took risks investing into unknown business end results! Zambia will remain making a lot of noise like a tractor stuck in the mud with the mantra “Better the devil you know!” Too much recycling making politics a lifetime profession! The years go by the young generations come and go yet same names keep afloat in leadership! The lack of understanding what we need first as individuals then as a community assigns us to the embarrassment of a people we are thus the snub at addressing the UN Assembly then the insults!

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    • While this report is consistently wrong on variables used to reach its conclusions, its inevitable that ECL will carry the day in 2021.

      Now, let me highlight some of EIU’s wrong assertions:

      1. Cash is no longer going to be problem for GRZ. KCM under ZCCM-IH is a new cash cow and when you add ZESCO and NAPSA to the equation increased revenues will make this government more self-sustaining than at any time since 1973. EIU has no clue how that has changed current dynamics on the ground.

      2. EIU refers to Sales Tax, well … they apparently are the only Jews in Jerusalem to have never received the memo of its revocation as GRZ reverts to VAT. Even though this reversal is cowardly in my opinion and that’s a topic for another day. However, EIU has no clue how that has changed current…

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    • Continued…

      However, EIU has no clue how that has changed current dynamics on the ground.

      3. The recent budget is a specific PF strategy for absorbing all economic shocks in the system which is a very smart move on their part.

      It’s an appeasement budget intended to keep the security forces highly motivated and happy, the civil servants highly motivated and happy and the last and very important group being bond holders highly motivated and happy.

      The first two categories, service chiefs and civil servant are crucial to public sentiment since GRZ is still the largest employer in the nation. Then you add to that bond holders who are supposed to add to fundamentals and you have a complete mood change as very soon you are going to have Moody’s and other credit agencies start…

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    • Continued…

      Then you add to that bond holders who are supposed to add to fundamentals and you have a complete mood change as very soon you are going to have Moody’s and other credit agencies start upgrading Zambia’s credit rating.

      Economic growth is a bummer with this budget but that doesn’t matter as its intended for positive public sentiment right before an election year. EIU has no clue how that has changed current dynamics on the ground.

      4. Their reference to NDC as a force on the Copperbelt, the recent capture of Roan seat without mentioning all the help they received from UPND and deregistration of NDC is completely misinformed. NDC is not credible yet and not a real force to reckon with; its win in Luanshya is an extrapolated outlier as opposed to being a national…

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    • Continued…

      NDC is not credible yet and not a real force to reckon with; its win in Luanshya is an extrapolated outlier as opposed to being a national movement.

      It’s leader is just as corrupt with current cases in courts of law, its registration and functionality are questionable; contrary to the Zambian Constitution and all these are flaws that can’t stand normal jurisprudence anywhere in the world.

      However, EIU has no clue how that has and can changed current dynamics on the ground.

      I can go on and on but we are limited for time and space and the greatest facade of it all is there’s simply no credible opposition in Zambia and my money is still on ECL.

      Despite his flaws, I can go to bed knowing he will at least try his best for the smart people of the Zambian Enterprise…

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    • Continued…

      Despite his flaws, I can go to bed knowing he will at least try his best for the smart people of the Zambian Enterprise.

      EIU simply has no clue about real current dynamics on the ground thus their flawed analysis peddling conspiracy theories trying to reach a correct objective.

      Remember … I run this country on remote access and I know better than them.

      Tweende webo; epo mpelele nebo …

      BRM

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    • Zambia needs a modest Leader, with a vision to change the country. HH is not appealing to people, he has wrong advisors and Comes out as Arrogant. Lungu is the Worst President ever No vision. Kambwili. Worse full of insults and childish. We have serious leadership Crisis. Maybe we need the Army to take over.

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    • Zambia has 7 major tribes and out of these, 5 of them support HH, how then is UPND a tribal party! Some tribes are too talkative for their own good, they even want to rewrite reality to suit their own obsessions.

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    • B R Mumba, how I would love to put a snipers bullet through that thick skull. Hope soon enough you get parkinson’s or alzheimer’s so that we can hear from you no more you semi literate call boy. If you were wise, you wouldn’t spill such garbage you major hallucinator beneficiary of the loot you accuse HH of. By the way the people that really run the Country on remote access don’t come to this platform to push titles. Be humble yama.

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    • Is this not the same institution that predicted HH would win in 2016?

      Regardless the chances of PF winning are 50-50, PF will lose if their voters don’t go out en masse to cast their ballots. HH has a strong following of which 95 percent or more of his supporters will cast their ballots whereas as PF is more like 40 percent will actually go and vote. So going by this alone PF will have to ensure at least 75 percent of their support base in Luapula, Northern, Muchinga, Eastern, parts of Copperbelt, Lusaka and Central vote or else UPND will almost certainly win. On top of that so many harsh economic measures are seeing less people eager to vote.

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  1. Well, I could also predict the same outcome even if I wish they lost. I do not see enough UPND support to offset a menacing PF Machinery that will ensure it retains power at ALL Costs. Thee suffering Zambians are experiencing aren’t also enough to kick PF from Government. ven in 2016, I know PF would win, against my will. I remember som UPND die-hards really taking issues with my prediction as they were pointing to an easy UPND win, the same mistake they are making now. So until UPND WINS voters’ hearts in the “swing provinces”, Northern Province, Copperbelt, and Luapula, it will never win elections.

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  2. I Can also predict that UPND can win in 2021 only if HH is replaced by another candidate!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! People like UPND but they do not like HH…………………

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  3. No such “swing provinces” Luapula, Northern ad Muchinga, they register bt don’t vote. Copperbelt, this coming election will go to opposition. All those predictions by EIU yobe ad rubbish,

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  4. Definitely UPND can’t wrestle power from PF. However another term of PF will spell doom for Zambia. PF has failed and that’s why we need another political movement not that of recycled politicians. May be something is coming for I don’t think God will let us down and allow us to be led again by a jemasoni guzzler. May He curse Christians for Lungu for their blasphemy.

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  5. The problem is they do not a have a clean competitor if there was one they would have been worried, but with HH leading the opposing party things can not turn around in the Zambian politics.
    Zambia needs politicians of high calibre than those crooks in opposition they are not different from those in power, how can a thief fight another thief all what they can do is just keep quiet or just watch . If UPND had a different leader we could expect some challenges to PF , people are not willing to put in power anyone who would divide them on tribal lines, they don’t want someone already known for plundering the wealth of their country, and lastly they don’t want one suspected of serving the enemy Satan , these three points have made the leader of opposition not to go to plot one.

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    • Opposition have lost direction. All theydo is look for actions or statements made by current leadership and dwell on such. Where have politics of ideology gone? No wonder think tanks have taken low profile – we know them!

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    • mhhhhh boss tribalist and serving satan? Those are heavy assertions. But of course change always faces resistence but once implemented everyone will be smiling. HH is saying, “thank me later.”Zambians are timid by nature lacking in gumption and vision. I regret being Zambian, country of drunk dullards who will never build a credible empire. Your military goes into hiding during battle. Your President is a joke on the international stage who gives speeches under the influence of alcohol. Your ruling party is filled thugs and manipulators. Anyway so called ”Christian nation’, good luck with your PF, I will just watch from a distance in my castle by the ocean. May thee wallow in your poverty!

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  6. The problem is they keep fielding in an expired double h.
    Now we hear that he is involved with sodomites. H² nafika mulast fye nomba.
    Short live upndead.

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  7. So how can a party that is becoming increasingly unpopular win elections??………….they are planning to rig again. The wind of change is in the air and nothing will stop it.PF has been Zambia’s worst disaster and if they win in 2021 it will be due to rigging

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  8. @civic leader,exactly my point,how does a party that has become so unpopular win an election? even with rigging it will extremely difficult to overcome the wind of change because even pf itself want change of government.

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  9. it’s way too early now EIU for you to be predicting who will win in 2021. This is how these people control us, trying hard to predict our future and they don’t tell you anything about the accuracy of their findings. Besides the dynamics can change anytime from now until 2021. There will be new voters from last time, and suffering is sure going to make Zambians think serious about change. You would have predicted Mugabe still being president but he was chucked Out so even lungu might lose. We all thought they would win roan

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  10. HH is a an agent of wicked organization called Anglo American (Brenthurst Foundation) trained by this organization.His father Mazoka introduced him to the organization up to date.Sad that his late dad stop congregating with Anglo American and denounced it big time he finally joined MMD as councilor in baulen compound.Unfortunate HH is “nuu” with them even when they use him to support same – sex marriage something he knows that even his ng’ombes knows female and male obligations.Its not a surprise for PF will in 2021 .Votes will flock from Eastern,Munchinga,Luapula and Northern Provinces these are places where UPND Ayatollah will cry like a toddler.He is busy entertaining Lusaka dwellers minus studying political co – existence.

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  11. Some whom are fortune to afford media listened, to the United Nations General assembly speeches from leaders that attended the session.

    listen to the speeches and reflecting on the news that we here and deductive reasoning you can see witch country’s heading in the right direction. There’s help out there and there’s notion that someone does not need to interfere to bring about one’s downfall.

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  12. While we can’t see any air moving in the UPND they are seeing a whirlwind! A whirlwind can be destructive, it doesn’t know which direction to go

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  13. “We expect revenue to fall in 2019 (in nominal terms) as an increase in mineral royalty rates (plus a new top rate), A DELAY IN IMPLEMENTING A NEW SALES TAX UNTIL JANUARY 2020 and the scrapping of VAT rebates for mining companies backfires, with the sector reducing output. ”

    Relax, this is stale news from EIU.

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    • Clearly there is no alternative to PF because even what UPND is putting across for the people of Zambia is not different from that of the PF. As it is currently changing PF for UPND is the same as repainting your old car nothing changes apart from a new color. For any Party to take away power from the PF they have to entirely restructure or redesign how they campaign and their manifesto must resonate with the desires of the masses in Zambia. Secondly with too much voter apathy PF will retain government, the people crying most today about the current situation are those that never took the time to vote. If you want to have a better Zambia you have to join the fight and ensure you don’t stand aside to allow others fight for you.

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  14. The problem with HH and UPND is that HH has misplaced thinking, the man is the wrong person to lead the once strongest opposition parties. Here is why people cant and will never trust the instruments of power to HH. The man is too much power hungry and when you really analyse this, you conclude that there are dark forces behind him especially those who support gays, a thing Zambians dont tolerate. Secondly, if HH cant respect the presidency whilst in opposition, what can he honestly respect if he controlled the instruments op power? A case in point, how can an ordinary person like HH make a declaration which only the Republican President is permitted? HH ignores to donate relief food to the most stricken areas but chooses to go where he thinks he can get some votes, a serious…

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  15. contd
    A case in point, how can an ordinary person like HH make a declaration which only the Republican President is permitted? HH ignores to donate relief food to the most stricken areas but chooses to go where he thinks he can get some votes, a serious miscalculation and this exposed HH to the core and people dont like liars and schemers.

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  16. The opposition in Zambia are very selfish. They can easily win next year’s elections if they came together under one resolve. If Chishimba Kambwili, Harry Kalaba, Hakainde Hichilema with the support of other minor opposition parties can rally together as one and choose one united bearer to face the PF for the presidency like MMD did in 1990 when Frederick Chiluba was the united bearer, the fed up masses can easily vote for opposition and power can change. As it is, no opposition leader is willing to sit down with the other opposition leaders for the sake of the downtrodden masses so that they map out a common strategy. Each one wants to be president, like it has always been all these years. The end result will be another victory for the PF.

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  17. Clearly there is no alternative to PF because even what UPND is putting across for the people of Zambia is not different from that of the PF. As it is currently changing PF for UPND is the same as repainting your old car nothing changes apart from a new color. For any Party to take away power from the PF they have to entirely restructure or redesign how they campaign and their manifesto must resonate with the desires of the masses in Zambia. Secondly with too much voter apathy PF will retain government, the people crying most today about the current situation are those that never took the time to vote. If you want to have a better Zambia you have to join the fight and ensure you don’t stand aside to allow others fight for you.

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  18. Very true. In the wake of these HOMO allegations, I can’t agree more. On March 5, 2018 UPND claimed Africa Liberal Network ALN) had no gay agenda when in actual fact they do. What the hell is UPND doing as a member in an organization that supports LGBT rights? It means they also do support gayism.

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  19. Comrade Ojamas you are correct following your observation.PF will still win 2021 elections,the other guys will just be waiting in vain,kwasila.

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  20. Its like am going to stop posting on this blog because of people like Sharon who always talk insults i think there is no need to be commenting on this kind of forum.
    Its so sad that some people always talks negative and rubbish their hearts are full of evil God help us too much hate here.

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  21. A lot of people here who can’t apparently think – more engrossed in hate politics. Why are we debating who will win in 2021 instead of what is going on in Zambia currently, socially and economically? Failure to read and analyze, benefiting from ECL’s crumbs and hence burying heads in the sand,are some of the reasons.

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  22. Why dont these reports mention the fact the oppisition political leaders such as HH, Chishimba Kambwili and others will become more desperate and try and bring confusion.? And that is what triggers Govts to act accordingly so that they maitain the peace they swore to protect. Why is it always Govt that is blamed when these small “presidents want to act like heads of state and bring confusion.

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  23. @sichalwe define an insult. What is an insult? Sharon does not insult. She only make sure incoherent and irrelevant statements.

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  24. why wont the regulators of this system not guide people speaking on tribal lines be warned,zambia is not for tribes to govern the least of the country,we have seen the crop of leaders administrating the country today are they not regional,if some else did that it will be tribalism,look at KK,FTJ,LPM, These men balanced leadership to avoid regional type of voting.

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