Friday, March 29, 2024

Nangula Ward, Local Government By-Election Results: What do they mean?

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By Isaac Mwanza

Introduction

The Electoral Commission of Zambia has conducted the first unique by-election during the period the country is experiencing the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The uniqueness of this election is that no rallies were allowed and the election took place at a time when every person has been experiencing social distancing. So what does the result reflect?

The myth and positive about by-elections

There is a long held myth about by-elections favouring a ruling party in Zambia because the entire government machinery is applied in campaigning and that the President, ministers, party officials all focus on winning a by-election. But there have been several occasions when a ruling party would not win a by election as was the case in Katuba, Sesheke and Roan Constituencies among others.

The winning of a local government by-election in Nangula Ward by the Patriotic Front (PF) makes 4 wards lostby the United Party for National Development (UPND, in Western Province in the past 4 months and by considerable margins. But what is interesting in Nangula is that no one was allowed to campaign by visiting people’s homes was discouraged, for fear of spreading the COVID-19 or Coronavirus disease was real.

So it can safely be said that the potential 2,214 voters from Nangula Ward did not experience the considerable pressure exerted by campaigning political parties to vote for any one candidate based on incentives and motivations which normally exist in such by-elections. But the Nangula Ward by elections presents some additional interesting insights.

The UPND which participated in the Nangula ward by-election is leading an Opposition Alliance of political parties which includes the Alliance for Democracy and Development (ADD) led by Mr. Charles Milupi. The interesting aspect is that in the 2016 local government elections for the same Nangula ward, the ADD put up their own candidate, who four years later, has switched to and stood on the PF ticket.

In 2016, the UPND candidate polled 776 votes while the ADD candidate polled 185 votes. Therefore, in this 2020 ward by-election, the UPND had a healthy start with a combined total of 961 presumed votes under their alliance with the ADD, while the PF went into this same by-election with the 283 votes presumed votes which they got in 2016. The UPND had won this seat with 57.74 percent as the turnout in 2016 for Nangula stood at 61% for the local government election.

Fast forward to 2020, the preliminary results showed the PF won the seat with a total of 868 votes, against its 283 votes in 2016 while the UPND, in 2020, polled 341 votes against its earlier 776 final vote for 2016. The PF gained 585 new voters while UPND lost its own 435 voters from 2016 as well as the 185 ADD voters who, under the alliance, would have been presumed to support the UPND candidate. A total of 620 presumptive UPND voters, did not in fact renew their support for the opposition and 585 of these 620 can be said to have switched their support from the opposition to the ruling PF.

Lessons from Nangula Ward

While social media is awash with elite analysts projecting that the PF is losing popularity because of Zambia’s economic downturn and with the Kwacha having lost some of its valued against the US dollar because of so many factors, the Nangula ward experience must remind politicians to conduct some self-introspection on what really motivates the voters to vote for any party.

The major boast for the ruling PF has been the developmental agenda President Lungu has continued to spread to the remotest rural parts of Zambia. Yes, people can’t eat good roads but with a good road network, farmers engaged in commerce can, in real time, move their goods from place of production, to market. Our grandmothers and fathers, brothers and sisters have far different needs for which they show their appreciation at the ballot, when the government delivers on their needs.

We may not want Think Township roads are that important, but think of the Limulunga resident who wants to rush to Kalomo to buy rice to take to market. Previously, the boat was the only means of going from Limulunga to Kalomo at this time of the year, and the trip took all day. Today, the Kalomo – Mongu highway is a short 2 hour drive across the flood plain, and the trader can put 30 X 90kg bags of rice on a truck and have them back in Mongu the same day.

No, we can’t eat roads but they do mean the difference between efficiency in commerce and if a patient on West Bank of the Zambezi needs hospitalisation in Mongu, they can be transported in 1 hour by ambulance. That is what a good road means to those who need it.

The second lesson is that the UPND alliance with smaller parties, which are largely regional, such ADD do not bring any value to the UPND numbers. This point cannot be overstretched.

The third lesson is that the same candidate who has won the Nangula By election in 2020 on the PF ticket, is the same candidate who lost the election on the ADD ticket in 2016. This points to fact that the victory obtained in Nangula is not about candidates but about political parties. It can safely be said that the PF is becoming attractive to voters in Western Province.

The final lesson to learn is that the closer margin in overall results between the ruling PF and opposition UPND has always been attributed to the highest voter turnout the UPND has in UPND strongholds. In 2016, the national turnout for presidential elections stood at 56.45%. As an example, the voter turnout in Southern Province stood at 72.26% against the voter turnout in Eastern Province of 50.74% or the turnout in North-Western 61.28% against the turnout in Northern Province at 53.61%.

Therein lies the lesson. The 2021 electoral battle will be about each party convincing its potential supporters in strongholds to turn out and vote. These issues of performance of kwacha or debt may be issues for the elites in Lusaka but not the ordinary urban or rural voter, as can be seen from Nangula where, despite the circumstances, turnout was quite decent and, one suspects, would have been even higher in normal circumstances.

If the PF manages to retain the strongholds and manages to persuade even 60 percent of its potential voters to turn out and vote, the PF stands to win 2021 with a wider margin than in 2016, but if the UPND continues to have the best voter turnout in its strongholds against the PF, then the PF will struggle.

Conclusion

The Nangula Ward by-election won by the PF may be a good boost to the Patriotic Front and a blow to the UPND but neither of them must fold their gloves. The big task ahead is for parties to continue convincing the real voters on the ground. The PF penetration into Western Province speaks volumes as Western Province is dynamic province from the time of MMD to date. It is not a province tilted towards tribal lines. The stay in power by the Movement for Multi-Party Democracy (MMD) was propelled by Western Province but the same province did not help the PF in 2011 and 2016 to consolidate its win. So the gain in Western Province by the PF is good for them but it needs to be consolidated if it has to mean anything.

49 COMMENTS

  1. I don’t trust the ECZ all those people on the ECZ board are PF cadres we need a complete overhaul of the ECZ before 2021 elections or else they will be too much problems after the elections I don’t know why these opposition parties in Zambia are sleeping too much why can’t you wakeup before it’s too late you will keep on losing if that’s your approach to elections PF is too smart on manipulating things last elections it was the post newspaper closed this time Prime TV and you are just queit about it.

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  2. Reading above article one cannot help it to come out with sense that PF and UPND their not for the (RZ) Republic of Zambia but to save their on interest. Yes PF or UPND can win Zambian election, but that is taking the country Backwoods.

    Anyone who does not recognize AI wield influence On IMF,G7 and international think tanks, because these organizations there accountable to their people. If their country find out that their Supporting PF or UPND administration AI we squeal on them.

    Equally we need Nangula Ward, and the international community.

    PF and UPND time out.

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  3. Very fair and objective analysis. But PF is in self destruction mode unless ECL changes some of these leaders and MPs

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  4. we surely need to study our geography very well. Kalomo is after Choma and there is no connection whatsoever with Mongu. its like telling a story about Jesus moving from Jerusalem to Washington. This analysis can be applied in Luapula too. Pf and Upnd have just swapped supporters, seemingly.

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  5. Guess he meant Kalabo and not Kalomo. Common sense!

    In fairness, UPND must listen more. Western Province is slipping away. PF have done more for rural folks and they care less about Kwacha

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  6. Spot on Mwanza.

    HH close tie and being second in elections is attributed to Southern Province, North Western and Central Province voter turnout out. The bantu botatwe thing!!!!

    These provinces will only slip away from UPND time the party will be led by someone who isn’t part of the bantu botatwe

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  7. The Kalabo-Mongu road is amazing, one that will remain appreciated for ages to come. Not these flyover bridges we seeing in Lusaka. PF has a bigger chance of winning in 2021. They just need to follow what has been written here.

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  8. Those with ears must listen. Question is why are we losing Western Province at this pace despite having ADD which has based in Western? Does this Alliance thing add any real value to us? UPND must get on ground and begin campaigning now. We also need strategic thinkers and balanced analysts of these elections like PF have. Anthony Bwalya and Sishuwa are spending time on none issues. But LT, it’s not Kalomo but Kalabo!!!

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  9. Rubbish analysis, this is not time to conduct election people are concerned about global threat ‘corona virus’ PF can we a bye election now and take note that some people were scared to go out and vote.

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  10. UPND must be applauded for participating in by elections. They are able to test what’s going on and what needs to be corrected. Liabilities parties are those like one for Kalaba nabambi aba. Yes Western Province is not tribal in nature. And this is where UPND must be careful. People like Lungwangwa have read the game in advance.

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  11. Its scary to think we shall ve PF bandits in power until 2026. Nothing will remain for Zambia. But problem are rural voters and not UPND. HH will go into retirement next year but problems will remain here for everyone.

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  12. UPND MPs from Western Province supporting Bill 10 have read the wave of change in Western. UPND grip is gone as PF has done more for the province. Yes Wina being Veep didn’t help Lungu win in West but now her being there is paying off for PF.

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  13. Fair article. Burden is on UPND to remain relevant in Western but it must penetrate more into Eastern coz currently, PF in Eastern still weak. Panji and others hitting them harder.

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  14. What PF needs to widen the margin with HH in 2021 is to pull support base higher in its 6 green provinces but also ensure the turnout in green provinces matches the 4 red provinces. Threat is CK on Coperbelt but he is now in weak position and no one is taking him serious anymore because he provides no real solutions. But Mwila as SG cannot deliver ECL victory. He isn’t a people person

  15. So turnout in Southern Province was 20% above national average? Eish. Just like that and u become official main opposition.

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  16. Very fair analysis,those with ears let them hear the meaning of Nangula ward elections.Winning on social media and phoning every radio station to claim popularity wont win elections for upnd.2021 you always talk about will be a waste for upnd,DOOM shall be turned into APPY APPLE for upnd die hards.

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  17. I know Lozis very well. PF will never win landslide in the province. Lozis are tough people and can never swayed for cheapness of PF. Bana BA malozi kibana sakata..,. Mu ikete …..baroste agreement still stands.

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  18. I was about to say fair analysis but then realized that the same was not said when UPND won a ward in northern province not long ago. That is a ward election that caused a rift in the entire PF all the way to the top. The provincial chairman and minister was threatened with dismissal for poor performance.

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  19. This is fair analysis. UPND just need to listen more. Western Province is slowly drifting away like the sands of the plain. Wake up HH. But worry if PF also implements the formula of voter turnout in other provinces

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  20. WALASA

    YES, PEOPLE CANT EAT ROADS. BUT THE DEVELOPMENT ZAMBIA AS UNDERGONE IS unprecedented AND MIND BOGGLING.

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  21. A ward election whose outcome could be influenced by some local factors is not a clear pointer to real things to come! PF’s hold on its stronghold is fast slipping away unless Edgar denounces his 3rd term! Then real battles will be urban areas where huge numbers with high voter turnout is guarantee and PF there has messed up big time! A free and fair 2021 GENERAL ELECTION CANT BE WON BY PF!!

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  22. Now can I hear from those that claim we use unfair advantage of government resources to win elections? I think we have been exonerated by your malicious accusations. In other words the upnd are unpopular losers,just as I have been saying. I warned you that we are confident in the de development we have brought about and expect voters to appreciate this at the polls. Come 2021 I will ensure upnd are flashed away from Zambia politics. Kz

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  23. By the way you can’t even claim tribalism because this is right in the heart of upnds bedroom. Upnd are in denial of a failed leadership and it will cost them another election. Limbi they enjoy losing. Do they get turned on by losing

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  24. Watching the space. Counting begins from 1 and so each election that takes place is a very good test but Lungu and PF must not go to sleep. Also it’s true that the marvellous road network is all that matters to most of our people, not the debt, the kwacha, the eligibility politics etc

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  25. HH is only as good and second as the percentage turnout in Southern Province. Beyond that, he would be at same level as Sean Tembo, Milupi, Nevers Mumba and Tayali

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  26. Its a known fact that during bye elections Western province usually sides with the ruling party , but when its general election time its all a different scenario.

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  27. Well done bana ba puho yensu! You are on the right side! Others think winning an election is calling radio stations all day! Wala! Come 2021 wina azalila futi. By the way who has been spotted in Turkey to meet his political funders to fight Wa Ng’ombe zake uyu ati ndani, okay namuibala, at the UPeND convention? And that’s how the empire crumbled! ECL nafuti nafuti

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  28. I like the analysis.
    Wouldn’t it be wonderful to have General Elections without the nonsense of mass campaigning and rallying!

    No lost man hours from the economy, no wastage of cash to induce voters, no falling out with each other, no public insult of fellow competitors, no political violence; it would be blissful.

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    • HH and his UPND shall continue winning elections on facebook and prime tv!!the UPND leadership would reject this analysis at their own peril.Today,the only real UPND’s stronghold is Southern province and nothing else.Besides,only high voter turnout in Southern province helps HH to be closer to PF’s ECL.Otherwise,HH would get votes same as Dr.Nevers Mumba,Edith Nawakwi,etc.The major problem in UPND is they overrate HH!!UPND fail to accept the fact that many Zambians do not like HH!!Prof.Lungwangwa and Hon.Kasonso have read the situation on the ground in Western and N/Western,hence siding with PF over bill 10!!HH will 100% lose 2021 general elections to PF because PF has kept on attracting voters across Zambia-mark my words!!

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  29. “Nangula Ward, Local Government By-Election Results: What do they mean?”

    They mean our usual political rubish, not so, Antonio?

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  30. This boy Antonio is in the wrong party and wrong profession and wrong company. Come young man, I will offer you a job in my Company,. But you have to start as an intern before I make you Manager before August 2021. Good competitive salary offered.

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  31. You can do your analysis just like the writer has done in the above article, but he does not seem to understand the Zambian political landscape fully. By elections can not be compared to a general election these two are completely different. What was the total number of registered voters in that ward you have not explained. The figures you have given are easy for any one political party to mobilize and vote for their candidate. But in a general election the factors at play will be completely different because the majority of voters are not affiliated to any political party. In a general election nearly all the registered voters take it upon themselves to go and vote. What is prevailing now are party members voting thats why the figures are low. And this notion that the people are…

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  32. This is where MOST of you bloggers miss the point. Elections are not about HH or UPND winning the elections. Other parties can also win , including PF. If Zambians deem it fit, PF can win elections for the next 1000 years. Fine. What is important is for whoever wins to have a development agenda. UPND losing elections does not mean HH will starve to death. HH will not always be there. UPND will not always be there but Zambia will always be there. If Zambians want PF to win all the seats for the next 1000 years, so be it. That is the democracy we fought for. After all , last time i checked, PF is a Zambian party which should be able to win anywhere in Zambia. In conclusion, i look forward to a day when ALL POLITICAL PARTIES will treat each other with respect and operate for the sake of…

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  33. I get shocked with opposition supporters sometimes. In one breath u don’t believe By-elections have any impact and in another participate?

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  34. A deserved win for PF, but the party should pull up their socks and learn to give an ear to the cries of the people.. Something somewhere is not right. Its not too late to make amends..

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  35. It’s like people have realized that the Tonga tribal alliance is a curse. They have seen the UPND and its hidden agenda is a hindrance going forward. After all, Tongas are open about it only a Tonga can lead the upnd and later on become president. So the rest of the alliance will just be used. How selfish.

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