By Kalima Nkonde
I consider this article as the most important Op-Ed I have written on Lusaka Times as it could influence the direction that our country takes for the better if my advice,like that of others on the issue of withdrawing Bill 10, is taken. I have been prompted by the Minister of Justice, Mr. Given Lubinda’s challenge to people who want Bill 10 to be withdrawn to come up with reasons why the bill should be withdrawn.
“Can you show me what they (Catholic Bishops) said is the reason for me to withdraw. Those who are saying ‘withdraw’ must show us the reasons why we must withdraw.” Mr. Lubinda told Grevazio Zulu in a ZNBC Sunday interview.
I have taken up the Minister’s challenge and will come up with economic reasons why it should be withdrawn because it is not in the best interests of ordinary Zambians. I also appeal to Members of Parliament to carefully read this article before they cast the most consequential vote in their lives.
Although the Minister has said that those opposing the Bill have not come up with reasons, from the little that I have read thus far, there have been political and legal reasons suggested by various players. The main arguments against the bill have focused on its threat to Zambian democracy, the flawed process followed, the likelihood of compromising the electoral system and generally, its divisiveness.
One of the architects of Africa’s best crafted constitution (in my view) – the Kenyan Constitution- Zambian Professor Muna Ndulo, a leading Constitutional law expert , is critical of Bill 10 and has described it as too broad, manipulative and overreaching.
“Bill 10 is manipulative and attempts to deceive the people of Zambia and create a dictatorship under the guise of constitutional reform. Bill 10 is designed to remove parliamentary oversight over the presidency and thereby install a constitutional dictatorship. It attempts to manipulate the electoral system to ensure that the ruling party remains in power in perpetuity,” Professor Ndulo, observed.
The Constitution amendment bill has also been opposed by the civil society and law fraternity. There has been a cross section of independent voices in Zambia including the following: Zambia Conference of Catholic Bishops (ZCCB), the Council of Churches in Zambia (CCZ) which is the umbrella organisation for mainstream Protestant Churches, the Law Association of Zambia and many others, for a variety of reasons.
As a patriotic Zambian, having read both the original and re- gazetted bills, I would like to make my humble contribution to the debate mainly from the economic and risk management angles. I will demonstrate why the bill is such a flawed, indefensible and a poorly timed piece of proposed legislation, given the economic problems that Zambia is facing today. I hope Justice Minister, Mr. Given Lubinda, PF MPs and the current administration will seriously reflect on the issues raised in this article as Bill 10 is a double edged sword.
May I from the outset state my caveat regarding my views on the constitution. I intend to be objective. I am not writing to criticize the ruling PF government at all. I am criticizing the contents of the document and its consequences .In other words, I am indifferent as to who is in power now but rather concerned about who may be in power sometime in the future under the new Constitution.
It should be borne in mind that the constitution is a national document and that it should stand the test of time. The motive for amendments should never be short sighted or driven by winning the next election or to serve the interests of a certain section of community but the entire society. In addition, only the most naive will say for certain who will be in power next year or in future? The world including politics are very unpredictable. Who knew about Covid-19 and its impact a year ago?
The issue is that, if bad amendments are made, they may be abused by whoever is in power sometime in the future. In my view, and from the risk management point of view, all parties involved in the debate should operate and consider the worst case scenario. As a democracy, we should assume and imagine the possibility of electing an incompetent, reckless, irresponsible and narcissistic President sometime in the future. And the question we should ask ourselves is: what is the likelihood that he or she is going to abuse a weak constitution which has no proper checks and balances? The answer is certainly yes. It is on this premise of the risk of some of the clauses that Bill 10 proposes being abused for political gain by such a President being almost guaranteed, that I am opposing Bill 10 in its current form and why it should be withdrawn
I have noticed that nobody has argued for or against the bill from the economic angle. In the light of the dire economic situation that we are facing, in my view, the economy should be a top priority in whatever we are embarking on, because it affects all the 17 million Zambians. I am opposing Bill 10 from the economic point of view.
In summary, Bill 10, both in its original and revised form, has two major flaws, if one was to look at it purely from the economic point of view. The first flaw is that the Bill promotes big government. It encourages reckless, excessive and non-value adding government expenditure. And secondly, the Bill encourages excessive borrowing – though not expressly but impliedly. The two weaknesses are the major causes of the current economic problems and the Bill proposes doing the same thing but expecting a different result! I will explain how the bill does this in its proposals.
Excessive government expenditure
In regard to big government, there about five (5) proposals that in effect increases government expenditure exponentially. First, Bill 10 proposes that Deputy ministers be reintroduced. It is not rocket science that government expenditure will go up by the employment of Deputy Ministers through the payment of salaries and other benefits and the exponential growth of the per diem payments. Deputy Ministers have not missed at all since 2016.
There is also the proposal which deals with the creation of Parliament. The composition of parliament will be determined by the Party with the majority in Parliament. The proposal does not specify the limit on the numbers of members of parliament. This in effect means the number of seats of members of parliament will be unlimited. This means that any ruling Party in the future may decide to increase seats from the current 156 to say 500, for example. This will inevitably result in increased costs which the tax payers will be required to fund.
The current constitution provides that parliament will dissolve itself 90 days before the general election and the Constitution Court ruling even confirmed that even Cabinet Ministers are supposed to vacate their seats. Bill 10 proposes to change this and wants ministers to remain in office until the date of the next election. The economic implication is that Ministers will be misusing government resources to campaign and expenditure in any election year will sky rocket. Who will pay for this? You, the voter will in form of increased taxes including the unemployed and villagers through VAT.
There is also a provision in Bill 10 that gives the President the unrestricted power by parliament to create provinces and districts. It can easily be abused by any President for political purposes without regard to the economic consequences. This sub division of provinces like pieces of land will require duplicated infrastructure and more jobs for the boys and result in higher recurrent and capital expenditure.
The other major provision that will result in increased government expenditure relates to Bill 10 proposal to expand the Cabinet by including Provincial Ministers and government Chief Whip. Zambia will end up a cabinet larger than rich countries like the USA, Nigeria, and South Africa etc. The bloated Cabinet apart from the fact that it will be inefficient, as you cannot have meaningful discussions in a Board Meeting of over 50 people, will result in more money being spent.
I would challenge Justice Minister Mr. Given Lubinda to give the nation the rationale for the above proposals and their economic benefits to the country and to the man on the street apart from promoting political patronage. It very curious that at the time that Zambia is supposed to be implementing austerity measures and working towards debt sustainability, the government is pushing for the passage of Bill 10 which is encouraging more expenditure through big government and unfettered excessive borrowing.
The increased expenditure outlined above will have to be financed from somewhere. What are the most likely sources of revenue for Bill 10’s proposed expenditure generating amendments? Taxation and borrowing.
Increased Taxation, cost of living and cost doing business
There shouldn’t be an argument that all of the Bill 10 proposed amendments mentioned above will result in higher government expenditure with little or negligible tangible value addition to the ordinary Zambian. It also follows that the major source of government revenue is taxation. It is only the most naïve will argue that no additional taxes will be required to finance the proposed changes. Bill 10 will no doubt require all households and business to pay more taxes thereby lead to higher cost of living and cost of doing business. This is simple economics and common sense. There should not be any partisan argument on this.
Excess borrowing
If taxes are insufficient, there will need to borrow to supplement the expenditure. The second major economic flaw of Bill 10 apart from the big government issues above, relates to easier debt contraction. Although the re-gazetted Bill 10 has removed the clause in the original bill which authorized the Executive wing of government led by the President to have unfettered freedom to borrow. The risk of excessive borrowing still exists. This is so because the clause dealing with the power of the President and the ruling Party to determine the number of members of Parliament effectively means Parliament will always be majority led by the ruling Party.
The proposed amendment in Bill 10 for Parliament to create itself is a backdoor creation of a de facto one Party State. Parliament will always be a rubber stamp. The Cabinet will be able to borrow freely without the EFFECTIVE oversight by Parliament. Parliamentary Democracies are based on independent checks and balances between the three wings of government- Parliament, Judiciary and Executive. As things stand, the Zambian Presidency is so powerful that there are very few checks and balances. As we all know, crucial economic decisions are not made at the Ministry of Finance but at State house and so the passage of Bill 10 will result in more power for the Presidency. It is an open question that whoever takes that office will do as he or she pleases with economic policy.
CONCLUSION
I would recommend that as Zambians, we press a re-set button and have a sober debate on the constitution. The debate on the constitution should never be approached in a partisan way. In my view, the constitution and its debate is supposed to be political Party neutral as it supposed to benefit all citizens regardless of Political Party affiliation. The Constitution is not a document of a particular party but for the nation as a whole and it should be able to stand the test of time. It should not be divisive. The amendments should not be based on benefiting a particular administration as elections and change of governments are unpredictable.
It is clear from purely economic arguments that the proposed amendments contained in Bill 10 do not serve the best interests of the majority Zambians. Bill 10 is not in an ordinary Zambian’s interest as it is likely to result in runaway government expenditure and excessive borrowing. It follows that the current problems that we are facing of high taxes, high inflation, depreciating kwacha will get worse as excessive expenditure and government borrowings are the major causes of our economic problems.
May I appeal to Members of Parliament to ask themselves the following questions before they support or vote for the bill. Is the bill 10 going to reduce the cost of living for ordinary Zambians? Is the potential excessive public borrowings to finance big government in the best interests of the economy and country? Are the potential taxes that will be required to finance the proposed big-government going to benefit ordinary Zambians?
For PF members and members of Parliament, they should ask themselves as to whether Bill 10 will save their best interests, if any of the Opposition parties took over power sometime in the future? PF members should remember this English saying “BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR” (For those who are not familiar with its meaning google it).
It is my humble view that Bill 10 should not be a priority given the problems we are facing. It will not put food on the Zambians’ table. I am wondering why the hurry and the desperation to pass the Bill by the ruling party and their supporters. The timing of the Bill is wrong. Firstly, at the moment the priority should be the economy, the creation of jobs for the Youth and uniting the country. Secondly, the PF administration mandate’s mandate is finishing next year and it is better for them to wait for a fresh mandate in 2021 and introduce a well thought out and more inclusive Bill.
In summary, Bill 10 will take more money from Zambians pockets and put it in any future ruling Party’s politicians and their supporters’ pockets.
PLEASE WITHDRAW BILL 10
It’s a styopet Law, finish. Only those can’t think properly are supporting it. It’ll be repealed on the day Edgar walks out of State House
If this law had no benefits for lungu it would have died a silent death……
“….I am wondering why the hurry and the desperation to pass the Bill by the ruling party and their supporters. The timing of the Bill is wrong. Firstly, at the moment the priority should be the economy, the creation of jobs for the Youth and uniting the country. Secondly, the PF administration mandate’s mandate is finishing next year and it is better for them to wait for a fresh mandate in 2021 and introduce a well thought out and more inclusive Bill…”
Words taken out of my mouth…………
Well said and well written Mr Kalima Nkonde. All patriotic and progressive MPS must listen to these words of wisdom. Its clear Bill 10 is not in the interest of most Zambians as it will worsen our Economic plight and thetherefore Bill 10 must be Withdrawn from Parliament forwith. The writing is on the wall.
Thanks for this. It’s a well-argued critique of Edgar Lungu and his PF’s evil intentions. But who will stop them? Not reasonable arguments. The UPND back bench has very few able debaters who can put forward a reasoned argument without emotion. Given Lubinda thinks he’s set in life. But that is due to his limited understanding of economics.
Thanks for the article. Unfortunately I think we are well past the appealing and debating stage with this Bill 10. The PF is hell bent on passing this for their selfish reasons. There is absolutely no door left open for reconsideration. It’s do or die for them. Parliamentary debate is just for show. Its arrogance of numbers thrown right in our faces. A prelude to what is coming if and when Bill 10 passes. Paradoxically, for all the criticism often thrown at UPND, they remain our only hope in this. There is a slim chance that through their walking out (together with a couple of Independents), and resisting the hefty bribes, PF might fail to muster the numbers required. There’s a costly lesson in all this. We may be learning it too late!!!
I don’t read rubbish articles from people who shun to contribute to the forums and submit their views when asked to. And yet rush to write articles to criticise the very same thing. To me that is a sign of cowardice or an ulterior political motive which stinks of hh cow dung.
On a more humorous note why does the pic remind me of a chibuku packet. Woza weekend haha
Why been so emotional, this is our country we should always do what is right for all Zambians and for future. Let’s not make a mistake that will haunt us in the grave.May God bless you.
But why should disagreement be registered by walking out? The UPND must sit in parliament and vote against it if that’s wht they want to do.
Yawn!!!!
Nemwine -The walking out seems to be a response to where things are at as a country. I figure the idea is to “help” the “feeble” resist falling into temptation of voting against the bloc – on account of a monetary inducement and yet still claim they voted with the others in the party. The walk out is an publicly declared no vote. Not sure it will work again this time with the members being in different chambers. Save for a miracle, this goose is all but cooked!
The deputy minister positions did not stop the economy from growing exponentially during the MMD regime. Two, power to create a district implies power to merge existing districts and provinces. That is, when need arises, then government could merge some areas in a transparent and accountable manner. It is shameful for rural population to live far away from certain amenities guaranteed under district or provincial administration. Three, the size of parliament needs to reflect fundamentals, including demography and economic development. When need arises, then creation of new constituencies could be justified. An elected government that will oppose current legislation is free to proceed with new amendments. The current government favors a strong presidency in relation to perpetual debate and…
An elected government that will oppose current legislation is free to proceed with new amendments. The current government favors a strong presidency in relation to perpetual debate and polemics in the name of consultations. The consultative processes are not immune from abuse. Take time to respect majority rule. Take time to respect proactive governance. Take time to fight usurpation of government operations.
Dr Makasa Kasonde: Are you suggesting the majority never make mistakes? We hv a chance here to stop a preventable mistake. Whn ZNBC news brought Wynter Kabimba last night to speak in favour of Bill 10, the state broadcaster’s biases (not public broadcaster) were writ large. They cannot host another lawyer who is against Bill 10 because Malolela Lusambo’s contract would be terminated immediately. A constitution must be good for everyone and not just one side.
Toto pa toto.
No further comments necessary.
This is a shallow analysis. Nothing written here points to why this Bill is bad. Nothing wrong with voicing critic but the level of analysis in Zambia has become so poor, just people expressing an opinion by the seat of their pants. Be methodical, give stats, cite examples, only your family can be expected to listen to your opinion unquestioned, the rest of us what an intelligent well thought out argument.
Don’t pretend you haven’t got the points on this article. Pretence is a sin mind you, be a real Zambian who should always understand what I fellow is trying to remind, or else God will punish you
Dr. Makasa, are you really a PhD holder? You are a disgrace to Phd holders.The article is about economic effects and you bring in partisan political and hollow arguments! Dispute what writer has said from economic point of view.Please sometimes it is better not to comment. This is a very objective article for all of us to step back and reflect regardless of Party affiliation. You do not change constitution whenever there is change of Gvt. Your comments are like the imposter KZ above who looks at all issues in partisan lens. Let Bill 10 go through and another Gvt other PF comes in power and you will all regret.
Alas Nkurunziza was hoping to be the patriotic guide in Burundi. See what happened? Do not mock ANYONE. Not even God.
Dr Makasa Kasonde and Ndoleshyafye, I want to draw u to the Mast newspaper of today June 19 on p.3. Even if u may not be a regular reader of the said newspaper, just for the sake of this debate, get a copy. There’s a good article that analyses Bill 10 and also discusses the legality of Given Lubinda’s re-gazetting of amendments to a bill that has already been presented to Parliament for debate. Article is by two UNZA law school lecturers Felicity Kayumba Kalunga and O’Brien Kaaba. To those doubting Makasa Kasonde’s PhD, please note that he’s a distinguished medical scholar and a gentleman I must add.
Mwaiche Kalima, this is a lesson to all. Being in opposition does not make it mandatory to oppose everything a government proposes. The constitution amendment debate was aggressively opposed and boycotted by some organisations and by some citizens as a matter of course. Now, who is crying and clumsily demanding for a recount? Be brave enough to ask for a reconstitution of the forum for you to air your views instead of shooting the Bill extramurally.
Appealing to the World and his wife will achieve nothing.
Ba Nkonde, I actually enjoy your articles and always look forward to reading them when they are out. I think this one has some factual errors and may leave you exposed to people from the other side who are making the case the the opposeers of BILL 10 have not read it.
I think I read it and the proposal to introduce Deputy cabinet Ministers is not in BILL 10. It was rejected by all parties including PF as well. Front such a flawed statement exposes you to the critics who say you have not read the bill and just hate the ruling party and oppose everything they do. Take time to read at least the Gazetted Document before writing.
And why don’t we have brains like this in the UPeND? This tactic of walking out doesn’t bring out the contentious issues in the Bill 10! In times of uncertainty,facts provide clarity! Instead you opt to do your walk-out stunts. Explain to the people what thorny issues are in the Bill 10, that is your role as opposition! You leave the electorate to ”parrot” your, ”we dont want Bill 10 chorus” without giving reasons. Anyway opposition in Zambia died when Sata became President! Bravo Kalima Nkonde!
Regardless of whatever you think Kalima has made a good argument. The current government is highly economical with the truth. Knowing them for what they are, it would be a Mark of extreme naivety to trust what the PF has worked so hard to shove down our throats. From handling of fire tenders to burning markets and the gassing saga, you will trust them at your own peril. Don’t say you weren’t warned.
Is bill 10 only about 1 or 2 closes you have debated about? What about others … what is your view. I would rather go close by close and pin point those which are bad. You can not just
generalize the whole bill as bad given that there some closes which are good. Thats why you must debate it so that people can hear and make informed decision on the Bill 10.
The selfishness of politicians who only care for their own comfort choosing to be short sighted! Politicians or parliamentarians do not care about what effect the Bill 10 will have on the citizenry and country for like monkeys they swing between parties! Wouldn’t it be nice that PF loses the election and majority in parliament but for the party in government then to task Lubinda to carry on with his convincing arguments in support for Bill 10!
Bottom line is bill 10 must not go through at any cost.
This is a powerful analysis by Kalima Konde. The economic effects on Zambians will be dire. Already we hear 3 Provinces will be created at great expense. The intentions of Bill 10 are evil and costly to the Zambian Economy. Can the Hon Lubinda or his representatives give us counter arguments and expain how Bill 10 will add value and benefit the Economy and People of Zambia. It seems Bill 10 is structured to serve Partisan rather than National Interests. All progressive and patriotic MPs must vote against this evil Bill 10. Without a Vision we will all perish. To all MPs we are praying for u and asking God to give u wisdom and empathy to reject thìs Bill in the interests of all Zambians. Amen!
I always enjoy Kalima’s objective analyses but this one is a bit vague my man. You need to do better. Eg the deputy minister clause was rejected even by the ruling PF. This bill just needs our legislators to sit and argue it out. Anyways, it’s a good attempt by yourself, at least you tried and didn’t walk out…
Wait a minute: “The article is about economic effects and you bring in partisan political and hollow arguments! ” This statement is misleading. Economic policy necessarily implies political options. Developing Countries have big cabinet compared to Developed Countries. Stop pretending. Stop cheating yourself. Do you welcome the Constitutional Court or not? The CC is to a certain extent also ‘new expenditure’. New expenditure, including new districts and new provinces, including emoluments for new official positions do not necessarily need domestic loans and foreign loans. Neither does each new expenditure necessarily need increased taxation levels. It depends on the budgetary allocation, including using unspent and returned revenue or realignment of existing budget lines. In terms of…
In terms of percentage, paying the Deputy Ministers represents less than 0.01 per cent of the budget. Where did you get your wrong figures? The country is multi-polar society where centers of local power are scattered around the country rather than concentrated in one well defined social elite. To achieve maximum inclusion of the voters in national affairs, there is need to create space that accommodates critical constituencies in society. In this way, the country achieves peace and stability without which national development flops completely. The maximum inclusion strategy is based on both economic and political considerations. It is a well-balanced strategy that does not lean on populism at the expense of economic growth. Take time to build the country. Take time to build democratic…
The country is multi-polar society where centers of local power are scattered around the country rather than concentrated in one well defined social elite. To achieve maximum inclusion of the voters in national affairs, there is need to create space that accommodates critical constituencies in society. In this way, the country achieves peace and stability without which national development flops completely. The maximum inclusion strategy is based on both economic and political considerations. It is a well-balanced strategy that does not lean on populism at the expense of economic growth. Take time to build the country. Take time to build democratic institutions. Take time to build the economy.
Wait a minute: “The article is about economic effects and you bring in partisan political and hollow arguments! ” This statement is misleading. Economic policy necessarily implies political options. Developing Countries have big cabinet compared to Developed Countries. Stop pretending. Stop cheating yourself. Do you welcome the Constitutional Court or not? The CC is to a certain extent also ‘new expenditure’. New expenditure, including new districts and new provinces, including emoluments for new official positions do not necessarily need domestic loans and foreign loans. Neither does each new expenditure necessarily need increased taxation levels. It depends on the budgetary allocation, including using unspent and returned revenue or realignment of existing budget lines.
I was equally surprised to read from Mr. Nkonde’s article his position on deputy ministers that are not part of Bill 10. The author would have done well to quote parts of Bill 10 in making his argument. That would have helped readers understand better his viewpoint.