By Prince Bill M. Kaping’a Political/Social Analyst

In an article which has since been accorded generous acclamation by the usual suspects……the tabloids, and of course snaked its way on several social media platforms; Cape Town based scholar and don, Dr. Sishuwa Sishuwa, claims that President Hakainde Hichilema is desperate for a second term in office 3 years before the country heads back to the polls, and hence has churned-out a 5 point plan to achieve the objective. We find such assertions ludicrous and laughable!

This article shall seek to debunk this myth on a point-by-point basis. First and foremost, every politician is obviously pregnant with grand ambitions. Unless their brain is somewhat comatose, a councillor aspires to go parliament so that they can access a sleek SUV and enjoy the gratuity after their term expires; an MP desires to be cabinet minister so that they can be chauffeured around, flag flapping on their limousine while a leader of any political party yearns for a possible move into Plot 1 Independence Avenue so that they can leave a legacy……well, if at all those are their real intentions.

What’s wrong with a politician who has had half the bite of their term start planning for a second term, well ahead of time? Zero! For God’s sake, we’re talking about humans here and not goats!

1) Contain the Catholic Church

Sishuwa suggests that the first step of the so-called plan involves containing the activities of the Roman Catholic Church, which has long played an important role in consolidating democracy in Zambia. This can’t be furthest from the truth! Not so long ago, UPND party spokesman Hon. Cornelius Mweetwa called for a cease-fire in the ensuing ‘war of words’ between government and the Catholic church. He further reiterated that government is ready for dialogue with the church. It’s therefore wrong to assume that government is at loggerheads with the mainstream Catholic church……It’s actually just a few priests that don’t seem to see anything good in whatever the current administration is trying to do to improve the welfare of our people. Understandably so, the said priests enjoyed a cosy relationship with the previous regime to the point of campaigning for them at the pulpit. Do we honestly expect such individuals to have any kind words for the president and his government? The priests in question haven’t been providing any guidance to those in government perse, but have rather been playing politics at the pulpit for ulterior motives.

2) Co-opt influential elites from civil society

The Doc further claims that the second element of the plan involves capturing influential elites from Zambia’s civil society, which has served as a check on power since the early-2000s. Really? What’s wrong with rewarding activists such as Pilato or Mwape with key government positions for the role they played in removing a brutal regime from power……after all, it’s not a forcing matter! President Sata equally did the same in 2011 when he went out of the way rewarding a number of prominent individuals from Civil society and both the electronic and print media with lavish appointments in government and indeed the diplomatic service!

3) Capture the electoral body and pack the courts

Sishuwa says the third element involves the capture of two formal institutions that are critical to the management of elections: the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) and the judiciary.

Where on earth is Chitulika constituency whose results one chairman of ECZ availed to the expectant masses as the nation awaited with abated breath as to who would carry the day in the crucial elections of 2016? What about a deputy chairwoman that became emotional and almost shed tears when ECZ was challenged by ‘Mazembe’ over their machinations to help rig the last elections? Mind you, the presidential election petition in the 2016 elections was not heard for obvious reasons. Would the respected scholar still insist the two institutions didn’t deserve a radical shake up when evidence of impropriety abounds?

4) Weaken opposition parties

Sishuwa identifies the Patriotic Front and the Socialist Party as two formidable political rivals that UPND is targeting for obliteration. He gives 2 reasons: whereas an uncertain economic outlook and an incumbent seen as promoting ethnic-regional appointments have left the PF confident of regaining power, the SP is slowly coming to be seen as a viable alternative after winning a string of ward by-elections in recent months. We don’t know if we are still sharing the same planet as the academician. The last time we checked, certain ethinic groupings were shamelessly sidelined for any positions in government! We shall soon be revisiting this subject to put the prophets of doom in their places. Anyway, for the first time in a long time, cabinet represents a complete national character. Not only this, all the tribes are being deployed abroad as diplomats including Christine Kaseba Sata who has strong ties with PF! Where’s the promotion of ethnic-regional appointments by UPND?

Talking about our plummeting economy, who pushed us into the quagmire? Wasn’t Lungu and his cohorts due to their grandiose appetite for senseless borrowing and careless expenditure? Hakainde has since restored fiscal discipline in the public sector and people are already enjoying the benefits – there’s free education from grades 1 to 12; students’ allowances for our university students have been reintroduced; bursaries are being determined locally as opposed to some ‘elites’ sitting in some air-conditioned offices in Lusaka; citizens have long claimed back their ZNPF and now enjoying their NAPSA etc.

Talking about SP winning by elections, can the Doc be kind enough to explain where exactly this has been happening and when? To our knowledge, it is the ruling party that scooped all the local government seats in the recently held by-elections! As things stand, we are yet to detect ‘ichimwela’ or enthusiasm amongst the youth in favour of Fred M’membe’s political experiment. Socialism doesn’t appeal to our people, maybe 100 years from now!

5) Cover corruption tracks

Sishuwa observes that the final element of the re-election strategy involves hiding corruption, and further asserts that it is likely that the president fears that if a minister is arrested for corruption, they may expose their colleague’s graft, defect to the opposition, and undermine the bid for a second term. This can’t even hold a single drop of water! If at all there’s someone who is allergic to corruption, it is this president. Isn’t there a widely circulated rumour that Hichilema had his own brother or cousin arrested for stealing his cattle? How do you expect such a person to ignore the corruption on the part of government officials when he allow his kith and kin to be disciplined by the law? Already, we have seen permanent secretaries and other senior government officials being fired for alleged corrupt activities. Ask any cabinet minister, permanent secretaries, defense chiefs or even the district commissioners, they’d confess to you the ‘Church elder’ is a disciplinarian who would have no qualms about feeding any of them to ACC if they ever engaged in corruption.

Be rest assured, the president isn’t having any sleepless nights over the 2026 general elections. His focus for now is delivering to the great expectations of our people – they are the final arbiters and not some intellectuals or political scientists sitting in ‘ma yard” in Kabulonga completely dislocated from the reality on the ground. Consider the way he’s being applauded by our citizens for increasing CDF, including some progressive MPs from PF……ala Bally, wakuleka fye!

By Sean Tembo – PeP President

1. In any community, there are adults and children. Here, l don’t mean adults and children by age, no. I mean by thinking capacity. You may be shocked to learn that there are plenty of adults by age who think like children, just like there are plenty of children by age who think like adults. However, for a nation to thrive and prosper, the adults have to be in Government. If you have children in Government, then no matter your economic potential, it will remain just that: economic potential.

2. When you have adults in Government, they are able to think and plan long-term. They are able to make strategically beneficial decisions which are over and above the petty noises made by children in our society. And trust me, there will always be children who are not able to see beyond their nose, who will always stand ready to challenge and oppose certain strategic decisions. They will climb the tallest mountains and speak on top of their voices about why a particular strategic decision is bad. But a Government of adults is not supposed to be easily swayed by the noises made by children against certain strategic decisions. Instead, Government is supposed to explain itself with the same tact and firmness that a father would explain to his children why it is necessary to buy a 30×20 plot than buying a television set. In as much as the children might be temporarily deprived of watching Dora the Explorer or SpongeBob SquarePants, they will benefit in the long-term by having security of shelter.

3. Which brings me to the issue of the Copper mine in Lower Zambezi. I have said before way back around 2018, and l will say again now in 2023 that l am 100% in support of that mine project. That is not to say the project does not have any negatives, no. But the positives far outweigh the negatives. You see, Zambia is dependent on mining in general and copper mining in particular. Most of our mining pits in the Copperbelt are old. Sometime in 2019, Mopani had to shut down it’s Mindolo shaft because it is old and it was no longer economical to mine it. What all that means is that if we are going to sustain and perhaps increase our copper production levels, we need to open new mines to replace the old ones that are being shut down. Therefore, a new mine in Luangwa district will not only create employment and revitalize the economic prospects of the area, but it is also critical to our economic survival as a nation in terms of forex earnings and balance of payments position.

4. That is not to say the mining in the Lower Zambezi does not have disadvantages, of course it does. Actually, adults know that there’s nothing on earth which only has advantages and no disadvantages. Even eating t-bone everyday will soon give you gout! That means decisions have to be made not by looking at whether disadvantages exist, no. But by weighing advantages versus the disadvantages. In the case of the copper mining in Lower Zambezi, of course the disadvantages include possible air and water pollution as well as displacement of wildlife. The adult question to ask is; can these disadvantages be adequately mitigated? The answer is a definite yes. The Zambia Environmental Management Agency (ZEMA) just has to continuously monitor the copper mining activities and ensure that we do not have a repeat of KCM’s pollution of Kafue river.

5. This brings us to the current situation whereby Government has suspended all mining operations in the Lower Zambezi, apparently because an Environmental Restoration Plan was not submitted. To me, this sounds like a flimsy reason because an Environmental Restoration Plan is part of an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) which was long done and approved by ZEMA. You see, an EIA basically looks at all the environmental and archaeological issues that will arise from a proposed project and how the project sponsors intend to address those issues. The job of ZEMA in reviewing an EIA is to determine whether indeed all the pertinent environmental and archaeological issues have been identified and adequately addressed.

6. In the Lower Zambezi mining case, ZEMA approved the EIA and gave the project sponsors a go ahead to commence mining activities, which they did. My view is that it is not right for Government to now turnaround and halt mining activities on the pretext that a certain document was not submitted. If indeed a certain document was not submitted, it can be prepared and submitted while the mining activities continue. Halting all mining activities was an unnecessarily drastic decision on the part of Government. It may financially ruin not only the company undertaking this mining project but also has huge potential to ruin Zambia’s reputation as a mining destination in the eyes of international investors.

7. You see, mining is not only a complex activity, but it is also very expensive and delicate. For the project sponsors to have gone on site and commenced mining activities, they obviously had to sweat in convincing debt and equity investors alike to pump in hundreds of millions of dollars into the project. Before these investors could release their money, they had to weigh the risks of the project, of which an uncertain regulatory environment obviously ranked high up on the risk profile. The drastic decision of halting mining activities simply because of an alleged document which ZEMA overlooked before approving the project, has now actualized the risk of an uncertain regulatory environment. As we speak right now, the investors in this project are obviously debating whether to cut their losses and pull out of the project or hang in their. However, even if these investors decide to hang in there, the risk profile for the project has definitely gone up a hundredfold, which means the cost of financing will definitely go up for the project sponsors, much to their detriment. A Government of adults was supposed to know all this before taking the drastic decision of halting all mining activities.

8. Only a Government of children can think that a complex mining project such as the one in Lower Zambezi can be turned on and off like a light switch, at the whims of some bureaucrat sitting in a Ministry somewhere. In proper countries where the rule of law is respected and cherished, the drastic decision to halt these mining activities would be a good basis for a multi-million dollar lawsuit against Government. Therefore, other Governments out there would normally think long and hard before making such drastic decisions. But since we are in Zambia where the Judiciary sees the Executive as “mwana wapa nyumba”, such a potential lawsuit is farfetched.

9. Perhaps l can take this opportunity to directly address the children in our country, who have curved a career for themselves by opposing every developmental project. They opposed the proposed nuclear power plant in Chongwe area which was to be built by our Russian friends and would have possibly made us an electricity export powerhouse of the region, forgetting that all industrialized nations from the US to Japan to UK, China etcetera utilize nuclear energy for their electricity needs. These children in our country even opposed the construction of a shopping mall in woodlands next to St. Mary’s school, under the simplistic notion that it will disturb the learners, and blind to the mitigating measures proposed by the project sponsors in their EIA. These loudmouthed children of our country are now opposing the mining activities in Lower Zambezi on the pretext that it will displace wildlife, oblivious to the fact that the mine is located in a Game Management Area (GMA) and not a national park where the animals are located. Unlike a National Park, there are schools and hospitals and shopping malls in the GMA, and you can spend a month or two without seeing a single wild animal in a GMA. So which wild animals are going to be displaced as a result of mining activities? These same children of our country are also very self-contradictory because while they oppose mining activities on the basis that it will displace imaginary wildlife, they are quick to advocate for the reinstatement of safari hunting, which essentially involves killing animals not for food, but for trophies.

10. Anyway, our Government needs to decide whether it is going to be a Government of adults who are able to think and plan for the long-term benefit of this nation, or a Government of children who are easily swayed by the other loudmouthed children in our country. Children who can hardly see beyond their noses nor realize that for this nation to survive and prosper, we need mining. Diversification can come in due course, but for now we need mining. And our mining potential in the Copperbelt has significantly depleted, so we need new mines in other areas such as North-Western Province and Lower Zambezi. If we are not able to open new mines, our copper production will dwindle and with it our forex reserves, balance of payments position, exchange rate and overall economy. Indeed, if our Government is going to insist on being a Government of children, then they must step aside and pave way for adults to run the affairs of this nation. Adults who will be able to think and plan for the long-term good of Zambia.