By Moses Simaamba
The recent threats to arrest Chishimba Kambwili for hate speech during the elections forced me to question whether we Zambians are blind to the truth — numbers don’t lie! Democracy speaks with ballots. I don’t support Kambwili, and I think he belongs to a mental hospital. But what do we make of the facts on the ECZ website?
Voting Pattern: The voting pattern of Southern Province is summarized by the “DUNDUMWEZI” moniker–but it applies to the whole Province. Since 2005, Southern Province has voted almost 100% UPND. This tradition goes back to 2001– but the HH era gave it a new life. In 2016, HH got 30,810 while Lungu got 252 in Dudumwenzi. In Gwembe HH got 20, 861, while Lungu got 549. In Mbabala, HH got 27, 356, while Lungu got 392. 2015 was not that different. In Dudumwenzi HH got 14,181, while Lungu got 83. In Gwembe, HH got 10, 960 while Lungu got 249. In Mbabala HH got 13, 629, while Lungu got 126. In 2008 HH won Southern province by a big margin over Mwanawasa.
This voting pattern is HH’s anchor and the cornerstone for the UPND dominance in Zambia’s electoral politics beyond the HH presidency. We are afraid to mention this fact, and the UPND wants us not to point it out. But numbers are numbers–Southern Province has been voting the same way since 2005! HH knows the truth–numbers don’t lie. So the UPND strategy is to attack anyone who points out this fact–since it benefits its hold on power. It is the strategy the powerful have used to maintain power throughout the centuries–always protect your privileges by accusing the disadvantaged of doing exactly what you are–in this case tribalists.
What is Tribalism? : Can President HH or the UPND define tribalism? If all white people only voted for one white candidate in 5 past elections, would that qualify as racist? I have respect for people honest enough to say I vote on tribal lines–it is their democratic right to do so. It is on politicians to find ways of bringing such voters out of their tribal or ethnic orbit into their camp.
President HH won the election because of changes in non-Tonga voters. In all fairness, nothing changed in Southern Province–the Province remained locked in the tribal bar as it has done since 2001. Eastern, Northern, Luapula and other Provinces, however, lifted the tribal bar, thereby giving HH the victory. Does this imply President HH killed the T word in Zambian politics? On the surface, yes. In reality, no.
Would the post-President Hichilema UPND be led by a non-Tonga? Would it still receive support from Southern Province as it has done since its founding under two Tonga Presidents? Would it divide into factions? These questions speak to some of the vulnerabilities of tribal support on the future of the UPND in the country. So while it may work for HH, it may also work against the interests of the Party when it comes to 2031 as non-Tongas seek to contest for the top position. Would Tongas accept them?
I don’t want to negate the fact that the UPND is likely to become the dominant party in Zambia due to its TRIBAL base. This ugly T word should send heatwaves to the opposition and every Zambian interested in democratic politics. But it should also serve as a reminder that ethnic identification is alive. President Hichilema’s Cabinet has been cited as non-tribal–which is nonsense. The fact that we have few women in his Cabinet does not mean that gender is not an issue in the HH administration. The administration is sexist to the core! The same with the T-word. We cannot erase the numbers.
Lungu’s failure to attract the Southern vote could be dismissed as lack of political strategy or the characterization of Tongas as tribalists by the PF. But such an argument ignores that the pattern goes back to 2001– does it mean that Mwanawasa, Banda, and Lungu in both 2015 and 2016 were denied votes on the same premise?
The only logical explanation for this pattern is that in Southern voters, non-southerners can’t represent Southern interests. Come 2026, HH will be the only representative on the ballot in Southern Province. This does not mean other names won’t be on the ballot; they will. Nonetheless the only name they will be looking for is HH. Whoever intends to run in 2026 should find a strategy of winning an election without Southern Province and its cousin, Western Province. HH has 100% of the votes in Southern Province even before a single ballot is cast!
As with racists and men, when President HH preaches unity, he means inviting other tribes to accept the UPND and HH, while ignoring the tribal privileges from his own ethic group to which he is the SOLE BENEFICIARY. The fact that no other politician has benefitted from the Southern Province vote but HH should not be dismissed as tribalistic–it is an unearned privilege that HH receives by virtue of being Tonga. It must be probed and dismantled like racism, xenophobia and sexism. How we do it depends on how we are willing to engage in this hard subject–running away from it will simply extend this ugly word.
Like sexism, tribalism is real and we must dismantle it. The President knows it and he benefits from it and so do so many politicians. Tribalism gives them power, so we shouldn’t expect them to dismantle it. We the people should drive the agenda. Emotions maybe high, but in the end, we will become a stronger and better united Zambia.
