UNITED Liberal Party (ULP) president Sakwiba Sikota has said MMD Parliamentary chief whip Vernon Mwaanga’s analysis on the most possible outcome of the 2011 presidential elections indicating that President Rupiah Banda will win the presidency with a wide margin reflects his accuracy in the previous elections.
Mr Sikota said Mr Mwaanga’s statement should be taken seriously and that people who had followed his analyses in the past would agree that all his projections had come to pass.
Mr Mwaanga, during a media briefing at his residence on Thursday said President Banda was set to win with a higher margin than in the previous election on account of the gains he had made in Lusaka and Copperbelt provinces that had resulted from the positive MMD Government’s poverty alleviation policies.
Mr Sikota said the analysis should serve as a wake-up call to the opposition parties to work extra hard although it was too late.
He said Mr Mwaanga’s honest opinion stems from the fact that he made it clear that some areas would be scooped by the opposition unlike other analyses which make blanket statements that a particular party would lead everywhere in the country.
“Zambians should look at the past record of Mr Mwaanga in producing these analyses. It would be folly to ignore and dismiss Mr Mwaanga’s predictions.
“What is refreshing is that he does it honestly by admitting where his party will lose,” Mr Sikota said.
He said experience in politics and his track record as a political analyst made Mr Mwaanga one of the best people to give guidance in terms of how the political parties were performing in their campaigns.
[pullquote]“Zambians should look at the past record of Mr Mwaanga in producing these analyses. It would be folly to ignore and dismiss Mr Mwaanga’s predictions.
“What is refreshing is that he does it honestly by admitting where his party will lose,” Mr Sikota said.[/pullquote]
Mr Mwaanga, in his analysis, said United Party for National Development (UPND) was likely to retain Southern Province with President Banda emerging in second position just like in Lusaka and the Copperbelt provinces which would be won by Patriotic Front (PF) president Michael Sata with Mr Banda coming on a strong second.
The veteran politician said he had always produced analyses before elections and that all the final results of his statements had been in line with his predictions while the ones produced by The Post Newspaper had always been wrong, including the one done in 2006.
He said President Banda would win with run-away margins in Eastern, Western, North-Western and Central provinces where Mr Sata would come in a distant third, to make him a big loser.
He predicted that Mr Sata would only come second in Eastern Province.
Mr Mwaanga said on the Copperbelt, President Banda would be second only in the urban areas but would win in the rural parts of the province.
He said in the Bemba-speaking areas of Northern Province, Mr Sata was expected to win but would lose in all non-Bemba speaking areas such as Chimbamilonga, Senga Hill, Isoka East and West, Nakonde, Mpulungu, Kaputa and surrounding areas.
Mr Sata would win in Luapula Province by a small margin but the race would be tight against President Banda because of the gains he had recorded in the area.
He said President Banda’s rise in popularity had resulted from the schools, hospitals, clinics and roads which were being ignored by opposition politicians and yet people in the rural areas were able to see them.
Mr Mwaanga said Mr Hichilema would emerge second to President Banda in Western and North-Western provinces.
[Times of Zambia]
I hate VJ and his MMD with a passion, but I have to endorse his analysis too. These opposition guys need to take this as a campaign tool and work on the mentioned weakness, but I doubt they will.
It seems everyday you wake up you hear all these morally buncrupt people are endorsing PF. Am getting really concerned. And today is no exception. We have one HOT RANDY PASTOR DAN PULE throwing his hat into the ring. Awe sure, are there no men of integrity that can take this country forward. Do we have to rely on old recycled losers like Dan Pule whose record is there for all to see. And what has really happed to the POST to even give coverage to the likes of Dan Pule? They have quickly forgotten the GAG he has on them , just to put a thug called Sata in Power. Shocking!!!
Well, sad sad and sad. Its true this man makes what he says happen. The only diiference will come after he has passed on like FTJ and others. How can we forget the proudly self confessed Master Rigger. Rigging or not we will never know but it means Banda is there for another five years. What a shame. Welcome back Bwezani Airlines with your thicked lipped and plastered face. Yuck
Looks like a fair and realistic prediction by VJ. We shall wait for the final outcome. The Opposition needs to make headways in the rural areas. Their concentration on campaigning in their strong urban areas doesnt yield much. More over the rural areas have more registered voters than the urban areas. Rural folk take the voting civic duty very serious. Its about time people got serious and not always cry foul over what to me looks like a non existance rigging system.
for real HH was right to say Sakwiba is finished politician! he is the most hopeless person with no sense of direction I ever seen! how can you endorse someone’s opinion if you are in the right frame of mind?
He has not told us where ULP is going to win, is he going to MMD as well… these guys the revolution in 1991, where has that spirit gone… Sakwiba has failed to run his party and is singing praises to MMD just like Siulapwa
As a neutral with no emotions attached, I think this is an accurate analysis reflecting the situation on the ground. Take time to read it and digest it for yourself and compare with what you see on the ground. Sorry guys, I have to agree with VJ as well.
You do not need to be sorry my bro, you are just very right. question: What is ULP doing what kind of opposition is this party, do they work or just praise MMD.
VJ had the press conference to ask for funds from RB for his medication. Otherwise no OP no rigging! MMD kuyabebele!
I don`t support MMD but i agree with VJ on this one. Sata will cry foul again. Anyway, he is used to losing. PF should have kept the pact if they wanted to win this years elections. Banda will get 40%, Sata 32%, and HH 16%.
Here we go again, VJ at work. Where did he dig up the Data that RB would get Western Province, with all the Barotse Fracas and the death of protesters there!?!? I disagree with the man on that point. Accurate analysis would be Sata (Northern, Parts of Laupula, Lusaka, Central and Copperbelt) HH (Southern, Western) RB (Eastern, Parts of Luapula, probably North West). But again in Zambia anything is possible we have cases of rural voters producing miracles where 5,000 registered voters produce 9,000 votes.
I have told my rural relatives not to ask me for money… because they vote for Chibuku and Chitenge… when we say that these other parties intend to amend labour laws, increase basic salaries, scrap out some taxes like Carbon Tax, Excise duty on Electricity, TV levy… stop refunding VAT but reduce the rate. they villagers do not understand.
This is my analysis: CB- PF, MMD 2nd, Luapula – too close to call (PF advantage); Northern – PF, MMD 2nd; Central MMD, PF 2nd; Lusaka Urban PF, MMD 2nd; Lusaka rural – too close to call; Lusaka urban – PF, MMD 2nd; Southern – UPND, MMD and PF split 2nd; Western – too close to call, between UPND and PF, N/Western – PF and UPND tie MMD last; Eastern – MMD, PF 2nd.
PF wins because rural vote in central and Lusaka. Save this
Imwe bafigili, stop playing psychological games on us so that you rig in the background. Tukafilila mumichanga batata.
VJ maybe off the mark by about two percent plus or minus but he is spot on and he has said what most of us fear to admit..with the PACT, MMD had no chance but once it split thanks to Wynter and his goons…we were doomed…When HH said he couldnt win without PF he said what we all know and now they will each act as spoiler the only thing might be Upnd will score a bit more this year then it has ever done and will up its numbers in parliament…MMD will win at the end of the day with a reduced number in parliament but SATA and HH cannot on their own defeat RB…we all know that
DENIAL IS A GOOD DEFENCE MECHANISM.IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO UNSEAT THE RULING PARTY.. THE PF/UPND PACT WOULD HAVE WALLOPED MMD BY A VERY BIG MARGIN..SATA BEING GRANDFATHER TO HH WAS LIKE BEING ON AJOURNEY WITH OLD VEHICLES TAKING THE FRONT.IT CANT WORK OUT..HH WILL DO BETTER THAN PF COZ OF YOUTH VOTES..
you know pipo VJ balifwa dead en what we ar doing as UPND we cant even count on VJs plan coz this tym pipo will vote not VJ.we know that he just want money from RB to for medical check ups?????we as zambian we ar pact not UPND nor PF,but togther we can do it no this thug VJ
my mind is still PF… but the truth is HH is the best candidate, why because he is young. He was talking of creating wealth by giving loans to youths (a deliberate policy) regulating investors etc. Keneth Kaunda was young when Mwaanga Nkumbula allowed him to lead. Michael Sata with due respect should have allowed HH to rule. Kikwete of TZ is young. Kabila of DRC is young and others are relatively young. we can not afford funerals in state House. refer to Russia after Goberchev.
Is this really the deadwood who wanted to succeed Mazoka as UPND president? Sometimes you wonder whether some people have functional brains. Why call himself an opposition party leader when all he does it to lick RBs huge butt?
Vj mudala twalishiba yalipasa kale ni nafuti nafuti.
VJ predicts as he organises manuplication of election in these places so called non bemba. if they will why are they insist no pvt
Yingluck Shinawatra is the new prime minister elect in Thailand, she is 44 years old. How old is the president of the political party you support? What do you want to get out of him? Check your brains if you are singing praises to an old recycled politician.
old is gold. most often than not wisdom comes with age. almost all great civilizationsa are brain children of old men . i dont know any mordenr civilization which is the brain child of a young woman . i pity thailand.
Ba POST nabo, ati a lusaka clergyman refering to dan pule the rampaging sexman and gold dealer.
I totally disagree with VJ. He has forgotten that there is poverty and unemployment in this country! Accurate analysis would be; PF would get WP, LSK, CB, Luapula and NP with RB trailing second. These are regions with highest number of voters! PF would come second to RB in EP and CP. PF will also come second to HH in NWP and SP.
Has sakwiba disolved his political party like Dr Nervous. The right thing to do is he can just join MMD and stop pretending to be an opposition leader. The man is still very BITTER after failing to sell his political party.
PF getting western province? but uku ekuyumfwisha bwino zoona.
Bunch of lies.he needs somebody to spark his brains.This is a win win for PF because MMD will assume they ‘ve won so they will be relaxed to go out and ask for the vote.
Sata’s rally in chongwe was not big after all based on the picture in the post.namamotoka yafumine ku lusaka yalemoneka.
I would check V.J’s analysis before dismissing it. Is he cunning? Yes. Questionable moral values? Yes. Political opportunist? Yes. He lacks in the wisdom area. And the only reason we are talking about him today is bcoz he has one undeniable quality. He is intelligent. If he was not a politician I would love to see or hear VJ on the international media scene expounding on Libya,Uganda,Zambian elections,Zimbabwe,Jacob Zuma,in a way that would be clear,truthful,respectful of the mother land,yet enlightening to who we are as a people. Intelligent? Yes. What a waste!
Let those who have ears hear, eyes read. Its gone be hard for PF to accept but be rest assured this is the scenario on the ground.
VJ looks spot on except for Western Province where MMD may have a fight on their hands; PF’s push into the province seems to have lost its legs (hence the recent sidelining of Inonge Wina) and it is now shaping up to be a fight between MMD and UPND in the province. Luapula – about right too. Chiluba is not loved by the majority of people in the province. But, a following he does have which is sure to grow on the back of a sympathy vote over his death and financial backing from Katumbi. Underestimate MMD in Luapula Province at your own peril. Also a few question marks over Copperbelt-rural too. MMD victory is likely but probably won’t be decisive. Think the Mwanawasa clan and Mpombo will eat into MMD’s margin.
# 1 is a fool. I guess he is a Tonga. How do you believe VJ old and again say Dan Pule is old. You must observe your analysis before you publish them. VJ is not God. Only the will of God will come up. If Rupiya is the will of majority zambian then God will make him winner
People have VJ included the rigging he does in the analysis. What out, such pronouncements are a sign of VJ planning to rig in those areas they are busy claiming to have a vote swing. We know your tricks. Wait and see. If Sata can get even a kobo of the votes in western then PF is done, it is Donchi Kubeba. As for Luapula despite Chiluba dieing, no sympathy vote for MMD. Katele is alive and hurt and people will look forward to him not the dead. Chiluba was not a factor in Luapula, Mwanawasa finished him. His reputation as a thief is even in Luapula.
I like the picture of fat people eating
Appears like a fair prediction. VJ has done this in previous elections and his predictions have mostly if not all been spot on. We can never doubt his experience in these matters. Any hopes of unseating the MMD were extinguished when the PACT fell apart. I can only say all the best to those seeking polical office and may the party with the best and practical development agenda for ZED emerge victorious.
May the party with the best and practical development agenda for ZED emerge victorious you say.
Huh, most unlikely. If that were the case, Zambia would have been a developed country by now and seeking to launch A380s!!!
‘In war, God is on the side of those with the biggest guns!!!’
Nothing new in this analysis. This is your typical elections’ outcome pattern since 2001, when Mazoka’s win was stolen. What we should be paying attention to is the hidden hand and message behind these predictions. Is VJ conditioning the people’s mind to again another rigging? As for Sakwiba, he is an epitome of what is wrong with Africa; educated but utterly useless.
Someone help me. Do we have any stastical basis for this analysis/prediction? Sakwiba , what have you been promised? He is a Useless politician who has always been eyeing Veep post.
People we are supporters of Various parties, Suggestion we as voters let us swallow our pride and put our Vote on UPND and HH so that we can also have a young President… example: see what Keneth Kaunda did when he was a young President. in 1991 Chiluba was 50 relatively young he did well in first term. Can we be spared of Funerals in State house.. Please pass on this message to the next person. I am not tribalist. allow me to say Aba Tonga bali temwa injanji. HH will come to rebuild the defunct railway systeem.
Good morning
In my view, these are only psychological tactics to smother the hopes of the opposition. An analysis is one thing and an election is another. The weatherman will also predict a storm on TV but the fisherman in the village will still come out the next day with his little boat and go fishing like he has always done – and return unharmed with enough fish for his family. So it’s not what VJ says but what the voter decides that will come to pass.
Only the election results will tell. Let’s wait and see…
Don’t be scared of these poll predictions. Lusaka Times Is Owned By The MMD. Mukudya Mweka Daddy. Lusaka Times Stinks. They Are Full Of Nonses (Lusaka Times). Look At Who Is Covered On This Article. Anti-Opposition, I Will Make Sure !!!!
To hell with your result analysis v j at the end of day, God has a finall say for the country and the way forward , micky
love him hate him, VJ stands for the truth, his predictions are always on the dot thats why some people think he is rigging kanshi umuntu he is just good at what he does. I love his stance of not running away from problems. He has said Sylvia is popular in choongwe which is true, he will never leave MMD he is not a political prostitute, now thats a principled man
KK and US envoys at PF convention. check watch.dog
Chi VJ chabufi sana ichi muntu ichi..nechi chi one man party chi Sakwiba chasumina.Ubututu
Vj is playing with the mind of the opposition. He wants them to concentrate compaigning in urban areas then dribble them in rural area. He should us indicators for this analysis
Predictions are done everywhere else before elections based on what people say and what goes on,on the ground.In most cases they are proved reality,V J has done this so many times and gets it right.tell your old man to work hard.V J has been a politician since he was 21yrs so he is able to smell a rat.
Do not insult him or those who believe him but find strategy.unfortunately as a blogger you can only chat and insult each other. The party in power is hard to bring done in Africa and Zambia in particular.in 1991 we were not divided but now it will take a miracle not just hard work.we do not want the truth if he said PF everyone will be “pa bwatoooooo”.anyway he was just predicting let us wait and see.
Ba Sikota,VJ`s prediction is based on the past results that you very well know were tempered with.This time it wont work even with your stupid view to that supposedly honest analysis and since when has VJ been honest.
The truth hurts guys. There is no way that any single party can outseat the MMD. U messed up on the pact and u still think one of u will win. What a shame. Some poor PF soul has been promised for the past 5 years that he will stand in chongwe and all is lost for him now because of masebo the harlot
There is tension in Chongwe within PF circles. How does a new comer into the party just get the seat like that. Do u know how much our poor uncle put in the five past years because Michael ‘testicles’ sata had promised him that he was going to stand. Very shameful.
# 23 MOTHER****ER,YOU ARE SUCH AN ASSHOLE,SO INSECURE WHEN YOU JUST THINK OF TONGA,ITS YOUR NITEMARE.YOU LOOSER PIECE OF SHIT,WE ARE HERE TO ****ING HAUNT YOU TILL YOU DIE SON OF A BITCH.YOU CHEAP TRIBALIST.IN 1991 TONGAS GAVE CHILUBA 90%.IN 2001 WE COULD HAVE TAKEN OUT MMD BUT NORTHERN,LUAPULA,COPPERBELT AND EASTERN THE HARDCORE TRIBALIST DID NOT VOTE FOR MAZOKA WHEN THE REST OF THE COUNTRY VOTED FOR HIM.TODAY YOU ARE CRYING FOUL BECAUSE WE CANT SURPORT YOUR OLD FINISHED POLITICIANS.AS FAR AS WE ARE CONCERNED HERE IN THE SOUTH P VOTING FOR RUPIA OR THE THUG SATAN IS AS GOOD AS VOTING FOR MUNKOMBWE OR VJ.SO # 23 FOR MENTIONING TONGA NEGATIVELY WHEN WE HAVE DONE YOU NO WRONG GO AND **** YOUR ROTTEN MAMA. BULLSHIT
#39. Tone down on insults. I agree with u on one fact. This idea of picking defectors in preference for people who have been loyal to PF ever since is going to cost us. It looks nice in the media but there are injuries from within.
I know why Zambian are so tribal,the so called presidents concentrate on the province of there origin in terms of development.we all need railway lines,schools etc.
#40 I get your point my dear but cool it down mate,some people don’t think before blogging.it’s the truth which is killing them.
WHO EVER IS MAKING PREDICTION THAT MMD WILL WIN NEED TO LOOK AT THE TREND WHICH IS A VERY STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE OUT COME OF THE NEXT ELECTION. IN 2006 THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LEVY AND SATA WAS 300,000 VOTES. TWO YEARS LATER WITH ALL THE SYMPATHY THE MMD HAD, THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RB AND SATA WAS NARROWED TO 35.000. WHAT IS IT THAT MMD HAS DONE TO STAY AWAY THIS GAP NARROWING TREND? ONE NEEDS TO BE VERY BLIND TO REALITY TO IGNORE THIS TREND.
HH is in Kalulushi with his Kaponya honking thinking that they will attract people. They have failed and their rally is a flop. Any dought just ring any one in Kalulushi
why LT does not number my coments are they too strong?
so Sata will only win in Bemba speaking areas? just goes to show where his support and popularity comes from. from fellow Bembas who do not think people from other tribes can rule Zambia.
Do Do Do Do Do Do Do Do Do!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Donchi Kubeba
wina azalila this time
Love him or not the man has political wisdom… he has been in this game since he was 21
So many people are retiring without a pension this year…
Sata
Mulongolti
Mpombo
Mmembe
Mbita
Scot
Some might even find them selves in jail
ZNBC,TIMES AND DAILY MAIL BY TALK ABOUT HIM SHOW THAT SATA HE WILL WIN WHEN POST HAVE STOPPED TO TALK ABOUT BANDA
Just how does VJ pridict his down fall, the indicators are that strong supporters of mmd are leaving the party; those who supported RB strongly have left him and as said, worn marginery how does he win with a wider margin when those who supported him have all left him, funny ba VJ or poor pridiction. but no one wants the same corruption to continue ,in fact it will be more deadly than it has been if RB wins
But banda is not bemba mwanawasa wasnt and winter kabimba is not what people want is not tribe but some one who will deliver who has the capacity, presidency is up for grubs all zambians qualify tribe is nothing just sell yourself
I for one wouldnt vote for SAKI because he is not himself he canot lead anything he has failed his own party now behind his master the corrupt RB
What does it mean when KK attends the PF confrence, those are the indicators that time has come to change, dont lIve in the past if you are wise you can see something different bo SAKI and VJ
Somehow I knew the story was from Times of Zambia. The opposition must be very alert because such “analyses” and comments are precursors to rigging elections by the MMD.
No 59 do not be excited like a baby… KK was at the MMD conference… besides he only has one vote
VOTING FOR HH MAKES SENSE..
#4 The failure by HH to handle Sakwiba, Bob Sichinga and the reset has spelt doom for HH. People like #4 could blame Saki not knowing that these were very committed and loyal members of the party, who offered free legal sevirces to the party. Starting a political is not easy, let’s be sympathetic to the man. Little do people like#4 know why UPND has been reduced to a very small party. The likes of Bob added valuable contributions which are now missing. The party now can’t produce alternative budget because it has no manpower.Let’s help HH, he proper advise.
Has RB gained in Luapula, Lusaka urban and CB urban? Is RB going to get 30% or more in Southern as compared to the 21% he got in 2001. Is RB still winning NWP and WP with Sata coming out a distant third in these two provinces- less than 10% of the votes? Three cardinal questions to this year’s election results. If the answer to all is yes, then RB is running away with this election with more than 400,000 votes. Or 43%, Sata 32%, HH 21% and the rest 4% of the votes cast based on a 70% voter turnout.
ction with more than 400,000 votes. Or 43%, Sata 32%, HH 21% and the rest 4% of the votes cast based on a 70% voter turnout.
VJ is a man who is very selfish and unprincipled ,he is a man who has contributed to the bad leadership in our country,by his maths.but this time around he is WARNING THE OPPOSTION of what they should expect and from which areas of his maths,vj said that he looks at areas which are 50/50 with the opposition not only PF,but also UPND.he will also rig for HH that he comes first in wp and sp and then put mmd in second place.then he will focuse on rural areas were mmd and pf are 50/50 and manipulate the data to 60/40 in favor of mmd.then he tabulates his total and the MMD wins by 600 votes.the biggets question is how can we stop him from doing this,it will not work using our courts,IF GOD WILL BE so merciful to us may be VJ will PUT his coTRY first like what KK did.
VJ is intelligent but he has no love for his country,his legacy is not good and thats a fact ,this is sad indeed for him ,please VJ try to think of your grandchildren living in a developed zambia by aknowleging and respecting the wishes of the voters.think of what you can do for your country and not verse versa.WASH YOUR HANDS AWAY FROM THIS YEAR ELECTION AND PROOF ME WRONG,IF U DO THAT WITH A SINCER HEART ,MMD CANNOT WIN THE 2011 ELECTIONS.ITS GOOG FOR A PERSON TO REPENT THAN CONTINUE LIVING IN SIN.GOD SAVE FROM THIS WRATH.
VJ is too old the are so many young leader with good educational background . Please VJ do us a favour and resign…..from UNIP till today!!!!
@45 Fuseke old politicians
My tribes man, just because us Tongas believe in ourselves doesn’t give you the right to insult non Tongas! I am HH president of our Tonga people’s party and l am here just to spoil it for Sata, l have no hope of winning, as Tongas we know we can never win cos we are too small minded a tribe. The Zambian people are afraid of us cos we are tribalist in all we do, they would rather have a Bemba/Ngoni in plot 1 anything but tonga/lozi it’s us as people to change our stance otherwise we shall have one ruling elite
Crap, what gains has MMD achieved when they have been losing by-elections. *****s
MMD…dont forget that most of us previlaged to internet can not be fooled!!
Correct analysis: CB, LP, NP, LP Sata First, RB second: Sata Vote leading 18,000 EP, RB first HH second: RB catches up with Votes for Sata.. Sata leading by 1,000 votes. SP, WP: HH first RB second: RB Overtakes Sata. CP HH leader RB second, RB is in winning position. RB wins the Votes by 45,000 votes.. HH and Sata ties and Sata cries fould, mini riot.. and he suffers from Heart attack.. rushed to UTH and evacuted to RSA, dies on the way
Please, Zambian’s lets debate the issue and not VJ’s sickness. The issue at hand is his analysis we should put our points forward in support or not in support. Insults will not solve this issues at hand. We are all sick in one way or another. I pray God to answer our prayers during the coming elections!
The analysis is spot on in my view. Unless the Opposition covers enough ground on Vj’s assertions, we see another defeat of opposition by the ruling. As opposition parties we ought to take advantage of the obvious.
Mr. UNITED Liberal Party (ULP) president Sakwiba Sikota, I can’t get it! What about you? Where are you? Where will you be? What position will you fall on after elections? Are you and your party symbolic? Are you campaigning? Do you have a plan? I can’t get it, Sir!
You are finished VJ an we the people of Zambia have proved you wrong. The problem with the Self confessed Drug Dealer is that he believes in stealing THE PEOPLEs Votes.
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