Next year, the people of Zambia will, for the 7th time in 50years, state their trust and confidence in one of the political parties that would take part in the tripartite and Constitutional referendum.
The UPND made an emphatic 155% poll improvement over its previous performance compared to the ruling party, PF’s 24% improvement in the last three years.
Comparing the 2015 results against the 2011 presidential polls, it is unimaginable that Northern Province could hand out the worst rejection of the PF in terms of lost votes for the PF, which made a positive poll gain only in one province – Eastern Province, courtesy of the MMD’s Rupiah Banda support, whilst opposition UPND recorded an emphatic positive gain in all the nine Provinces in this analysis.
However, it is worth noting to decipher what the Zambian voter is saying.
Amazingly, many people – learned and ordinary in Zambia today, are unable to read the writing on the wall. Some are opting to still continue wallowing in self-delusion not based on critical analysis of synthesizing the clear message the Zambians are saying to the ruling party PF and to the main opposition party, UPND.
All the rest of the other political parties, which took part in the last polls, including the former ruling party MMD, just managed to slice off a pathetic 4%, with FDD leader, Edith Nawakwi, coming 3rd with 0.9%. The MMD came 4th in the 20 January 2015 Presidential by-election.
Therefore, PF Secretary General, Davies Chama’s blind blurting this week that PF has swallowed the MMD and the UPND, is highly uninformed. Of course, it’s easy to swallow the MMD who account for less than 1%, but the PF is incapable of swallowing an equal poll giant, the UPND which polled 47.2% against the PF’s 48.8%. The PF got 807,925 against the fierce poll rival, UPND’s 780,168 votes coming second place.
Without doubt, Zambians have drastically been losing confidence in the current PF, whilst posting their thrust and confidence in the UPND. This, they spoke in the last Presidential polls, which saw the sitting party, the PF just emerge victorious with a paltry 1.7% difference.
With such result, there was no incumbency advantage on the part of the PF. It can’t be ruled out that there may have been an empathy vote in favour of the PF on account of the demise of its founder, late Michael Chilufya Sata. Many supporters, including myself, all came out to band together to install the man Sata left in the saddle, to complete Sata’s term.
As for 2016, the ball game will be different. The PF will be assessed for who they are and what they have done. The voters will review the PF either as truthful and trusted lot or dismiss it as a team of liars with no plan for the people of Zambia on governance, economy and social issues.
Clearly, the PF has abrogated the trust and confidence on the Constitution, Taxes and Liberties. The Church has even come out praying that the sooner the PF leaves government, the better it can be for the country.
Based on the 2015/2011 comparisons, in the beginning, the PF under Michael Sata was trusted much more than the PF under Edgar Lungu. Figures say so. Whilst the UPND has improved 155% over their last poll performance, the PF has only managed a paltry 24% improvement, making the current government of the PF beat UPND by a marginal 1.7%.
Going forward, and based on unfulfilled promises, it is a founded fact that the voters are placing more and more confidence in the UPND whilst fast losing faith trust in the ruling PF.
No wonder, the PF lost so many votes, compared to their 2011 entry performance against the then ruling party, MMD, under party leader Rupiah Bwezani Banda.
Apart from Eastern Province, in the rest of the nine Provinces by Province (Muchinga excluded), the PF has performed badly.
In Eastern Province, with the full effort put in by Rupiah Banda, the PF only grew by 29,017, the UPND grew by 23,178 whilst the MMD shrunk by 232,283 votes. This is the only Province where the PF grew, whilst they lost votes in all the other eight Provinces.
In Lusaka the PF lost 45,948 whilst the UPND sore high with 58,781 whilst the MMD dwindled by 121,716 votes.
In Central Province, the PF lost 10,428 votes, the UPND gained 21,014 votes whilst the MMD miserably dwindled by 106,680 votes.
In Northern Province, the PF was highly rejected amongst all the other Provinces. The PF suffered the worst loss of votes amounting to 90,995 votes whilst the UPND gained by 25,792 votes with the MMD recording a continuous dwindling loss of 119,228 votes.
Then in Luapula the PF lost 70,533 votes whilst the UPND gained 8,735 votes when the MMD suffered another loss of 45,306 votes.
Copperbelt gave an emphatic wholesome pungent rejection of the PF whereby the PF lost 139,653 votes when the UPND gained 48,718 votes and the MMD continued its downward loss of votes accounting for 129,333.
Northwestern voters, PF lost 5,515 votes when the UPND gained 41,238 and the MMD still continued its losing streak with 86,415 votes lost.
Western Province, despite giving the Province the most expensive road and bridge development, the voters still rejected the PF, awarding the PF with a loss of 25,314 when the UPND gained with 40,498 votes and the MMD still lost 61,987 votes.
So, to imagine that the PF is assured of retaining the Presidency next year is burying one’s head in the sand. The people of Zambia are having reduced confidence and trust in the PF. The positive improvements that the opposition UPND has demonstrated, is a sure bet for even better performance against the PF in the time ahead.
The final verdict, however, remains in the custody of the voters.
Pwa ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.
Your statistics could be right, but you have forgotten one factor which contributed to the down fall PF,The infight ,the cartel.and people did not know who edger was and just opted not to vote.it happened with mwanawasa in 2001
what a shallow analysis
“IF THIS THEN THAT, IF PF THEN UPND, IF VOTERS THEN UPND WIN..ETC. WHY NOT JUST SIT QUIET AND WAIT FOR RESULTS NEXT YEAR. THIS IS NOT FOOTBALL WHERE WE “IF THENS”
STATISTICALLY SPEAKING, UPND WON ON MUVI TV AND ONLINE POLLS. THOSE TOO WERE STATISTICS
Ba Lusaka Times, kuyopa paymaster PF: “This article is not by LT but by Emmanuel Chilekwa”
THIS IS NOT THE FIRST TIME WE ARE HEARING THIS ABOUT UPND.AND THEN A NORMAL POLITICAL PARTY BELIEVES THIS PIECE OF TRASH FROM ONE CHILEKWA.UPND CAN NEVER FORM GOVT IN 2016 ONLY THOSE WHO WANT TO COMFORT THEMSELVES CAN SAY THAT.
SOMETIMES WE NEED TO BE SERIOUS WHEN SPREADING STATISTICS.
R u sure? Ok good luck wot that then
from 2001 people have been having confidence in UPND but we dont see any results.
the reason why UPND will never form govt in 2016 is because its a tribal party.
its a bantustant political party.
Too much stealing under PF, they dont even care what the pipo think about their alleged thefts. Unfortunately for them news spreads through the internet.
$25 million airport manee theft ?, $113 million oil over charge theft ?,
$12 million put aside for boreholes in western province when only a fraction of that is needed ? just the other day Mulega sata selling off reserved land in
speculation will kill you
Do you have the evidence as to the stealing? Or are u just a victim of political propaganda?
Statistical analysis are very intersting because they bring out a clear picture of the actual situation far better than what can be a percieved situation . It goes deep into considering all figures and factors affecting particular actions and thus credible conclusions can be drawn. While it is worth noting that Lungu has lost some popularity recently with his marriage with Papa Corrruption -RB and the insult styled Dora ,it is important that the objectivity of the statistical analysis is not altered owing to skewed political interest . As Lungu lost these votes ,is the lost weighed against low voters turn out to allow as to calculate the real votes lost by the PF and votes gained by the UPNP as opposed to just using norminal figures ?
at first i almost believed your analysis. but it seems you are confusing the figures for the general elections and the by election.
you should get let luapula and say what was the voter turn out in 2011. what is the percentage for all the parties you are comparing and get the voter turn out for 2015 and get the vote percentage for the 3 parties and calculate percentage gain and loss.
this will give you an idea but it does not imply that upnd has gained popularity. remember that the increase in the votes for upnd came from mmd vote which were lured by mmd mps that is why nevers lost terribly.
pf only needs 30 percent of mmd votes to win 2016 elections and upnd on the other hand needs 100 percent.
it is still a 50 50 affair since upnd still has the backing of mmd mps. but they…
concise analysis..
such as the above analysis are very misleading ,we all understand the uneven ground that was caused by alot of problems even from within the party,,but a result no matter how meagre was obtained…now come see this fourth coming election and see the true result not those engineered results by that crook jv,we are watching you and your friend padick..
what a load of $hit!
One chilekwa, today you want to change camp because you have not been given the job you were looking for, you do not have principles. You are a young man and at your age you have changed so many political parties and you have failed to fit in in any of the parties. You lack consistency and your analysis of the passed election is very wrong.
Just yesterday you were calling yourself Chairman “Friends of Edgar Chagwa Lungu”, what has happened, ans what has changed?
Is it the bitterness from the nights you spent in police cells? Grow up and play mature politics.
You are right the man clearly stated he wanted a job from Edgar, he didnt get it thus the switching of camps
Cool your tongues gentlemen and ladies, 2016 is coming when statistics will count for nothing.
Ha, give us a break.You see EL going to villages, you are busy talking about statistics and cooking nshima. You will not go anywhere with this attitude.
I think the bottom line of Chilekwa’s analysis is that the UPND has made sizeable in rods in PF strong holds. How others interpret this is of course debatable.
Your analysis is jaundiced, the UPND did not improve except tribalism improved their statistics. Get a moment and ponder how a single constituency such as Dundumwezi could get get 25, 000 that Luapula province put together. But people have seen that tribal way of voting and Akainde will see in the 2016 elections
Keep on dreaming with your statistics and analisistical figures…! Wish you good luck next year.
Someone is very good, has campaigned in all districts of the country and you are rejecting him in favor of a person who confesses that he has no vision. He ignores campaigning in certain areas in favor of the copperbelt, northern and eastern circuit. He even avoids the arranged presidential debates. That is tribalism. But the ultimate losers are the zambians themselves because they have lost a chance for honest leadership and well thought out development agenda. The uncharted projects that are mushrooming all over without planning make sad reading. We need sanity to come back to this country.
Tribalism is the most killer of upnd. ….may be try to use canisius band a as presidential candidate….
UPND got lucky due to the Sata effect; the long illness and bad handling of the publicity around that. All the palaver that went with re-electing a new PF leader. Perception of unchecked corruption, Sata’s persona.
His Excellency President Lungu could’nt be a more different animal with a whole different style than that. Under him, we have seen a stable, listening humble Leader, able to inspire his gov’t team and citizens at large.
It is delusional and totally eclipsed thinking that the writer displays here.
Long Live His Excellency, God Blessed and his steps are guaranteed on that success path to the next Government of his own.
UPND have cemented their undesirable tendencies in the eyes of the citizenry. Unpatriotic (travelling the world putting Zambia down), secretive…
Chilekwa is a name associated with bad spirit, so forget about insamushi sha Bufi from a bitter man. Edgar aka wina na ka bili thats the truth of the matter.
DUNDERHEADS TALK ABOUT TRIBALISM BUT THE WISE TALK ABOUT ISSUES.
PF IN THE LAST 3 AND 1/3 YEARS OF ITS RULE HAS ALSO TRIBLED LOANS. WE ARE IN DEBTS WHICH OUR CHILDREN WILL SUFFER TO PAY WHEN MOST OF THESE FUNDS HAVE BEEN POCKETD AS WE SAW AFTER NSANDA DIED.
KAMBWILI CLAIMED TO BE RICH WHEN SATA ALMOST EXPELLED HIM, HE SAID ” NSHAKACHULE NAWINA” MEANING I WILL NEVER SUFFER BECAUSE I AM NOW RICH.
It is another MUVI prediction. We do not care about this. It sounds familiar.
UPND politics are boring. Wait and see. You will be bashed again. Your HH is not inspiring. He is too angry, boastful and arrogant to deserve presidency. He needs time to grow up. He has failed to mature his party. They still behave like truly under 5s.
UPND won on Muvi and ZWD with more flamboyant statistics. The reality on the ground as seen from bye elections is that HH azalila like ngombe, moreeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
Ki!ki!ki!ki!ki
Ayi mwandi, you make make laugh!!!!
So you are one of the i.diots who didn’t understand the Muvi TV opinion poll question! Who is the best candidate? and who will win the elections? are two different issues altogether. I.diot
Muvi Tv electoral commission of UPND 2015 Presidential results:
HH 84%
ECL 8%
OTHERS 8%
ELECTORAL COMMISSION OF ZAMBIA 2015 PRESISENTILAL RESULTS
ECL:804,000
HH:780,000
NAKABILI MUKALILA NOMBA NICHI MWALIBELELA UKULUSA
So you are one of the i.diots who didn’t understand the Muvi TV opinion poll question! Who is the best candidate? and who will win the elections? are two different issues altogether. I.diot
I cannot understand the reasoning of you UNPD guys are crazy or something. Really you are not acting normal. Even the way you ague is not not logical.
MUVI gave the Zambian people a clear impression that HH was winning the elections. Whether they used the term “best candidate” or “will win” is a matter of semantics. The point is that the MUVI prediction said HH would win.
So Linda, you could be exposing your own lack of comprehension of the English language. Mind that here there many people from different backgrounds and educational levels. So you have to be careful not to expose your ignorance. You are only undermining you personal integrity.