In politics, the most persuasive signals sometimes emerge from the least expected places. That moment has unfolded this week on the Facebook page of Emmanuel Mwamba, a prominent critic of President Hakainde Hichilema and a figure widely associated with opposition political circles.
Mwamba posed a straightforward question to his followers: “If elections were held today, who would you vote for?” Four names appeared in the poll: President Hakainde Hichilema, Tonse Alliance faction leader and Mporokoso Member of Parliament Brian Mundubile, presidential aspirant Makebi Zulu, and Citizens First president Harry Kalaba.
What followed quickly drew attention across Zambia’s political online space.
Within roughly twenty-four hours, thousands of users had participated. As the poll remains open and is scheduled to close today at 20:00 hours, the figures visible on the page show President Hichilema holding a commanding lead with about 21,000 votes.
His closest competitor, Brian Mundubile, has recorded around 11,000 votes, while Makebi Zulu has approximately 7,200 votes and Harry Kalaba trails with about 1,600 votes.
In percentage terms, the numbers place Hichilema slightly above the 50 percent mark, at roughly 52 percent of the total votes cast so far. Mundubile stands near 27 percent, Zulu around 18 percent, and Kalaba roughly 4 percent.
The figures alone tell a striking story. Yet the setting of the poll makes the outcome even more notable.
This is not a poll organised on a platform sympathetic to the ruling administration. It is hosted on the page of one of the president’s most outspoken critics. Many observers would have expected such an environment to favour opposition figures.
Instead, the opposite has unfolded.
Among those who have chosen to participate, President Hichilema has emerged as the clear favourite with more than half of the votes cast, maintaining a lead of about 10,000 votes over his closest rival. That gap translates into a margin of more than twenty percentage points.
Several users quickly pointed to the political significance of that outcome. They noted that the audience participating in the poll largely consists of followers of Emmanuel Mwamba, a page widely perceived to attract audiences sympathetic to the Patriotic Front and other opposition figures.
Yet even within that environment, the president remains firmly ahead.
One user captured that sentiment in a comment that circulated widely across the thread:
“Note that people voting here are just people who follow Emmanuel Mwamba so they are mostly PF inclined, but HH is still winning. Imagine if it was a neutral page.”
That observation has become a central point in the discussion surrounding the poll.
Some commentators argue that if the same poll were conducted on an independent platform without any perceived political leaning, the president’s margin could appear even stronger given the broader mix of participants that would likely be involved.
As the vote moves toward its scheduled 20:00 hours close today, the numbers visible so far point strongly in one direction.
With more than half of the votes already in his column and a margin that places him nearly double ahead of his nearest competitor, the trajectory of the poll suggests that President Hakainde Hichilema is heading toward an outright victory once voting concludes.
Online polls do not replace elections or scientific surveys. Participation depends on who follows a particular page and who chooses to vote.
Yet they often reveal the intensity of political sentiment within active digital communities.
On this occasion, the signal has come from a platform widely associated with criticism of the government. And as the poll enters its final hours, the numbers still place President Hakainde Hichilema firmly at the top of the field with a clear majority of votes cast so far.
Online polls not very scientific and accurate
Ba Mwamba uko ku Sandton or is it in the hood in the US? How about a poll on are Zedians happy with a president who improves his residence with their money since he doesn’t want to live in State house?
No poll is 100% but polls do generally give the direction and feeing
FWD2041
But now the ruling party and its supporters- including the editor -are quoting Mwamba as credible when they always frown at his publication.
“now the trajectory of the poll suggests….” says the unscheduled editor
This isn’t a well sampled or genuine poll for you to start quoting ba LT
But now the ruling party and its supporters- including the editor -are quoting Mwamba as credible when they always frown at his publication.
“now the trajectory of the poll suggests….” says the unschooled editor
This isn’t a well sampled or genuine poll for you to start quoting ba LT
Batini! With 70 readers it becomes representative of 3 million voters?
Do NOT be deceived, none of the ruling party members wanted HH to be featured. And that projected win DOES not in anyway suggest that the polls run on Mwamba Page are credible.
DO NOT TWIST things to suite your narative.
IF anything, indeed the previous polls WERE NOT credible, because they showed Makebi and Kalaba leading as opposed to MUNDUBILE, and the MALUKULA camp got excited, now proven wrong, as Mundubile is leading.
BTW: Even Given Lubinda, does NOT consider the previous Polls on EMV to be credible.
Leave out the ruling party.
Do NOT be deceived, none of the ruling party members wanted HH to be featured. And that projected win DOES not in anyway suggest that the polls run on Mwamba Page are credible.
DO NOT TWIST things to suite your narative.
IF anything, indeed the previous polls WERE NOT credible, because they showed Makebi and Kalaba leading as opposed to MUNDUBILE, and the MALUKULA camp got excited, now proven wrong, as Mundubile is leading.
BTW: Even Given Lubinda, does NOT consider the previous Polls on EMV to be credible.
Leave out the ruling party.
Sure An unwanted choice as he is the only one whilst other greedy politicians argue
kkkkkk
This online poll is only for people with smartphones who live in town of which they are a very small percentage of total voters. A real poll would be one that is conducted on the ground at every level in every province with sample participation of people from all walks of life including the unemployed, street vendors, marketeers, workers etc etc. That will give you a better inclination.
Kudos to Mwamba then! HH is his number one enemy but he still went ahead and published results favorable to UPND.
DeadNBC wouldn’t have the guts to publish results if they showed HH losing.
Zoona. I hope the new Dawn party and its government now appreciate freedom of speech
Waste of time reading about the online poll results. Politicians who turn to be dictators are always afraid of their own shadow. Hence the introduction of Cyber Crime Act. That is the reason they call it an Act, because it is indeed an Act of desperation!!!!
Waste of time reading about the online poll results. Politicians who turn to be dictators are always afraid of their own shadow.