OPINION | Zambia Is Running on Empty: The UPND Has Failed, But the Opposition Might Blow 2026 Too
By Lawrence Nymbiri , October 2025
Let us be clear: Hakainde Hichilema and the UPND are not favourites in 2026. They are limping politically, morally wounded, and increasingly isolated. Their trust bank is overdrawn. Even in traditional strongholds, murmurs of betrayal are growing louder.
But the opposition must be warned: UPND can still win by default if the opposition continues to behave like a school of confused fish.
There is a storm hanging over Zambia not the kind that fills dams and waters crops, but the kind that drowns a democracy slowly, bitterly, until all that remains is a nation asking: how did we get here?
Zambia, under the leadership of President Hakainde Hichilema and the United Party for National Development (UPND), is slipping dangerously from the dream of New Dawn into the darkness of democratic decay or New Drown. The same man who campaigned on restoring liberties has become the face of a government now feared for its vindictiveness, arrogance, and constitutional manipulation.
Bill 7, the infamous Constitution Amendment Bill, has sparked national panic and for good reason. Buried within its technical language is a dangerous precedent: empowering the Executive to increase nominated Members of Parliament, tilting the balance of power, and ensuring that legislation can be bulldozed through Parliament with little or no opposition. It’s a direct assault on the spirit of separation of powers. This isn’t reform. This is entrenchment. And it is soaked in fear a fear of 2026.
But it is not just Bill 7 that should concern us. It is the growing pattern of authoritarian behaviour, the harassment and arrest of opposition leaders, the calculated intimidation of dissenting voices, and the silence yes, the strategic silence of the so-called Tonse Alliance and PF, now owned by UPND through Chabinga.
Where are the checks? Where are the balances?
Former opposition firebrands, now in power, are behaving with the same impunity they once condemned. If it were former President Edgar Lungu or any PF leader who blocked a Hakainde Hichilema motorcade, we would not be writing articles today we’d be writing obituaries of course we are actuall writing for the past 4 to 5 months in which our former president if the mortuary since june, why arrogance of….. That is the reality of Zambia in 2025. And Zambians know it. “Mwe Lesa, what have we brought upon ourselves?” is now a national lament, especially among the youth who voted for UPND in droves and are now refusing to register to vote again out of despair.
It would be naïve to pretend that this frustration is isolated. The economy is grinding, the Kwacha is plunging, and fuel and mealie meal prices are nowhere near where UPND said they’d be. In 2021, HH promised Zambians a drastic drop in the cost of living. Four years later, the opposite has happened. Subsidies are gone. Jobs are scarce. Hope is thinner than ever.
Zambia’s youth the very bloc that delivered HH his mandate feel betrayed. They were promised internships, jobs, entrepreneurship funding. Today, they’re offered airtime bundles and TikTok motivational speeches. Meanwhile, voter apathy is spreading like a virus, and ECZ’s incompetence has only made things worse. The voter registration exercise is marred by poor planning, short notice, and a sense of deliberate sabotage. People are simply giving up. In some townships, registration centres are empty. In others, the equipment never even arrived.
Then there is injustice. The Maria Zaloumis case exposed how selectively the law is applied. Numerous PF-affiliated individuals, like Raphael Nakachinda are in prison, and are still battling multiple court cases while UPND-aligned perpetrators roam freely, untouched by the same legal system that claims to be “independent.” Even when some are acquitted, the damage is done the process has become the punishment. And yet, we hear nothing from the president. No calls for fairness. No condemnation. Just smug silence.
Let us not forget how even death has been politicized. The handling of Edgar Lungu’s family affairs following the his demise is an ugly reminder of just how low our leaders have sunk. The State’s refusal to grant due dignity, even in mourning, sent a clear message: your grief is only valid if you’re with us.
What we are witnessing is not just political imbalance; it is moral rot. And yet, the opposition which should be rallying the nation is busy imploding.
There are at least four “presidents” in the opposition, and none of them seem to know who’s in charge. Instead of creating a unified front, they’re issuing contradictory statements, launching vanity projects, and treating alliances as personal empires. Chilufya Tayali, once seen as a voice for the voiceless, now appears erratic and directionless. Makebi Zulu, Emmanuel Mwamba, Binwell mpundu , speak with intelligence and clarity but often ignored by a fractured base.
And yet, one figure is beginning to cut through the noise: Emmanuel Mwamba. With sharp articulation, bold criticism, and increasing grassroots appeal, Mwamba is slowly becoming the man to beat. This is not propaganda it’s reality. Zambians are listening to him not because of slogans, but because of substance. He speaks not just to the people, but for them.
Then come the new entrants. Dolika Banda, offering sober economic commentary, and John Sangwa, with constitutional literacy and public influence, are not traditional politicians but they might just be what this political moment demands. The question is: will the opposition allow fresh ideas and fresh faces or will it self-sabotage once again?
Meanwhile, Speaker Nelly Mutti has turned Parliament into an echo chamber. Her handling of parliamentary affairs, marked by hostility and exclusion, stands in sharp contrast to her predecessors, who despite political pressures maintained a semblance of impartiality. Under Mutti, Parliament is no longer a House of debate. It is a House of order. government order.
And perhaps Rev. Godfridah Sumaili captured it best: “There is a dark shadow over Zambia because we haven’t buried Lungu.” She wasn’t referring to a literal burial. She was pointing to a spiritual one a national refusal to confront truth, to reconcile with our past, and to restore our moral centre.
Where does this leave 2026?
Let us be clear: Hakainde Hichilema and the UPND are not favourites in 2026. They are limping politically, morally wounded, and increasingly isolated. Their trust bank is overdrawn. Even in traditional strongholds, murmurs of betrayal are growing louder.
But the opposition must be warned: UPND can still win by default if the opposition continues to behave like a school of confused fish.
To win, the opposition must:
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Unite publicly, visibly, and sincerely. The PF must rebuild trust. Alliance talks must result in a single presidential candidate.
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Stop personality fights and adopt issue-based campaigning. Zambians want leadership, not drama.
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Elevate substance over slogans. Let the likes of Mwamba, Dolika, Sangwa, Makebi lead policy discussions.
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Mobilize the youth. Their energy delivered victory in 2021. Their apathy could deliver loss in 2026.
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Defend the Constitution now, not later. Oppose Bill 7, not just with press statements but with legal and civic action.
The hour is late. Zambia is teetering. And while UPND continues to alienate its base, the opposition must decide: will it rise with courage or remain divided in cowardice?
The people are watching. And this time, they are not voting with hope. They are voting with memory hunger and anger.
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