A university of Johannesburg Professor of Chemist has revealed that the construction of a nuclear power plant is expected to cost US$ 30 billion.
Zambia is among a dozen African countries that have signed agreements with Russia to develop nuclear power plants as a way of addressing acute power shortages.
But Hartmut Winkler has warned that Zambia and the rest of Africa should explore other cheaper energy alternatives than experimenting with nuclear energy which he said is far more expensive.
Writing in the Conversation, Professor Winkler stated that Zambia is planning to construct a 2.4 GW nuclear plant at a cost of US$ 30 billion.
“Zambia is eyeing a nuclear plant on the scale of Bangladesh’s Rooppur 2.4 GW. The plant is expected to cost US$ 30 billion. Given Zambia’s total annual budget is US$ 7.2 billion this is clearly unaffordable,” Professor Winkler said.
He warned, “The country receiving the nuclear plant initially pays very little, but when the repayments kick in, the country’s fiscus and electricity consumers are suddenly faced with a massive burden that most African economies will never be able to meet. By then the 3% annual interest could have increased the amount owed by as much as 40%.”
Professor Winkler further warned that the nuclear industry also has a history of cost overruns and construction delays.
“A country may therefore face a situation where it needs to service a higher-than-expected debt while being unable to recoup funds from electricity sales. What is equally concerning is that the debt then places Russia in a position where it is able to exert disproportionate influence over a country’s affairs.”
Below is the full article by Professor Winkler published in the Conversation
Why nuclear power for African countries doesn’t make sense-By Hartmut Winkler, University of Johannesburg
Over the last few years reports have surfaced of a range of African countries planning nuclear power plants.
Over the last few years reports have surfaced of a range of African countries planning nuclear power plants.
At the moment, the only nuclear plant in operation in Africa is South Africa’s Koeberg, producing 1.86GW of power. This, according to some African leaders, is about to change.
Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni recently made the astonishing statement that his country is planning 30GW of nuclear power by 2026. That equates to 16 times the current total of nuclear energy on the entire African continent.
Uganda’s is only one of a number of countries interested in nuclear power. Russia’s nuclear agency Rosatom has boasted that it’s concluded nuclear power memoranda of understanding with Egypt, Kenya, Nigeria, Sudan and Zambia. Uganda is also on the list.
Most African countries suffer from severe electricity shortages. The majority need to double their generating capacity to meet current needs.
According to International Energy Agency figures, Kenya, Sudan and Zambia are primarily dependent on hydroelectric power.
A 2.4GW nuclear plant would double their electricity production. Nigeria’s dominant energy source is gas, and here it would take a 4.8GW nuclear plant to double its capacity.
Of the countries with Rosatom agreements, only Egypt has any concrete plans in place.
A site for a 4.8GW nuclear plant has been identified at El Dabaa, on the Mediterranean Sea, and building is understood to be imminent. In the other countries, the location and scale of the projects have yet to be determined.
Elsewhere in the world countries like Germany, Belgium and the US are downscaling their nuclear plans or exiting it altogether. The reasons include perceptions of increased risk following the Fukushima disaster in Japan as well as economic factors.
The cost of electricity generation from solar photovoltaic and wind technologies has come down dramatically. It already costs less than power produced by nuclear plants and renewable energy is set to become even cheaper.
Given that South Africa has shelved its nuclear plans on affordability grounds, surely less resourced African countries would find investments like this even more difficult?
The loan agreements
Nuclear power agreements are notoriously shrouded in secrecy. But it’s possible to get a sense of Rosatom’s plans for African nuclear contracts by examining recent examples where details of mutual commitments have become public.
A deal struck with Bangladesh provides a useful benchmark against which to understand other deals that have been done with Russia.
In the case of the 2.4GW Rooppur nuclear plant, Rosatom is providing most of a US$ 12.65 billion loan. This only covers the estimated construction costs. Interest accrual, possible cost overruns, operations and decommissioning are likely to amount to more than double of this initial outlay. That makes a total cost of roughly US$ 30 billion likely.
Egypt’s earlier mentioned El Dabaa project has a similar funding arrangement. Here Rosatom has given a loan of US$ 25 billion, which again is projected to only cover construction.
For both Rooppur and El Dabaa, the annual interest for their loan is around 3%. In addition, the loan is structured in a way that ensures repayments only start 10-13 years after the loan is made, to continue in annual instalments for 22-28 years thereafter.
The country receiving the nuclear plant initially pays very little, but when the repayments kick in, the country’s fiscus and electricity consumers are suddenly faced with a massive burden that most African economies will never be able to meet. By then the 3% annual interest could have increased the amount owed by as much as 40%.
The nuclear industry also has a history of cost overruns and construction delays. A country may therefore face a situation where it needs to service a higher-than-expected debt while being unable to recoup funds from electricity sales.
What is equally concerning is that the debt then places Russia in a position where it is able to exert disproportionate influence over a country’s affairs.
Zambia is eyeing a nuclear plant on the scale of Bangladesh’s Rooppur. The plant is expected to cost US$ 30 billion. Given Zambia’s total annual budget is US$ 7.2 billion this is clearly unaffordable. If one were to scale the Rooppur cost from 2.4GW to the 30GW nuclear power plants proposed by Museveni, the figure would be 15 times Uganda’s annual GDP of US$ 24 billion.
Cheaper options
Are there cheaper alternatives to nuclear power to alleviate energy shortages in Africa?
A great deal of hope was placed on the 40GW Grand Inga hydroelectric scheme on the Congo River. But the project isn’t going to come to fruition soon due to funding challenges.
The most promising solution seems to be through multiple small-scale power production initiatives, typically in bio-energy, solar heaters and photovoltaic modules. These provide cheaper electricity than nuclear and are in addition good job creators. With its extensive agricultural sector, all of Africa has great bio-waste energy potential.
Kenya has shown that there are excellent geothermal energy extraction possibilities along the Rift Valley.
Many countries, including Egypt and Kenya, enjoy ample sunshine, making them ideal for solar power generation. With the right incentives, these could drive an African energy generation boom.
Hartmut Winkler is a Professor of Physics, University of Johannesburg
This article was originally published on The Conversation.
The power plant that melted down in Japan is poisoning and irradiating the entire Pacific Ocean. And Edgar Lungu wants to spend x times GDP to build one in Zambia?
No.
Besides cost, this Nuclear Deal stinks with corruption, huge bribes from the Russians. It was at the centre of Ex-RSA president Zuma’s corruption with his Guptas & ultimately led to his downfall. No wonder Zuma kept visiting Lungu to market the nuclear deal. He visited Zambia when HH was incarcerated & said nothing to condemn the illegal detention.
Lungu has no financial sensibility. As long as he has mansions, casinos, Range rovers, Rolex watches, small Swazi girls, boot-lickers & brain-washed worshipers etc, he doesn’t care about the debt being burdened on the masses.
– Why not develop Zambia’s hydro generation potential which is estimated at more than 6,000 MW & can be completed at a fraction of the cost of 1 nuclear power station. Europe is busy shutting down nuclear power…
CONT’D…
Europe is busy shutting down nuclear power stations. Belgian Tihange 2 nuclear plant has developed 70 cracks in the boiler.
– Geothermal Potential – 35 Hot Springs are rated highly in terms of surface temperature, flow rate, and proximity to power lines. Kenya is one good example who have exploited Geothermal power.
– Solar – 2,000-3,000 hrs of sunshine per year
– Biomass Power Plant – 498 MW potential
I think that’s the only co concern about nuclear power safety. Otherwise I consider this a good move. Zambia and the southern Africa is growing and depending on the existing energy won’t help. Let’s build this plant as we can export our excess power to our neighbouring countries who won’t have this capacity to produce. Maybe before we start construction we should bring in the issue of accountability of resources. If this plant will be a source of income for any political party in power like zesco let’s not even dream about.we are much better in darkness than serious debt and hoping for second HIPC
Sh!thole country, with sh!thole citizens. Welcome to Slavery 2.0
It will not surprise me that this project is already approved by Edgar and his band. Where is Nkandu Luo getting the courage to push this outrageous agenda from?
I doubt very much if this is truly a nuclear power plant. I know for sure this is a nuclear waste dump believe it or not! Zambia has no money to construct or maintain such a huge mammoth and potentially dangerous project. Those living near the proposed site should start packing and move far away now. Even rich countries like Russia and Japan have failed in the past to maintain such facilities despite having the capacity. What chance does Zambia has under the incompetent leaders to maintain such a dangerous facility if it can not maintain its schools and hospitals? Zero.
From what I have gathered so far, the site in question is being prepared as a nuclear waste dumping site meant generate huge money for Lungu and his thugs to spend any how at the expense of the would be nuclear waste…
From what I have gathered so far, the site in question is being prepared as a nuclear waste dumping site meant generate huge money for Lungu and his thugs to spend any how at the expense of the would be nuclear waste sufferers. Nuclear power plant is not a joke.
Clear evidence that this will be nuclear waste dump site is the cost. No Nuclear power in the world would cost around $30million except the nuclear waste dumping sites which would even cost less. A modern nuclear power plant constructed according to the latest safety standard costs a minimum of £550million.
So Zambians please do not to trust thief Lungu and thugs on this Nuclear power plant idea.
Zambians open your eyes. After poisoning you Lungu and his close thugs will move to Eswatini ,leaving you to suffer nuclear…
So Zambians please do not to trust thief Lungu and thugs on this Nuclear power plant idea.
Zambians open your eyes. After poisoning you Lungu and his close thugs will move to Eswatini ,leaving you to suffer nuclear waste effects alone.
Lungu must go at any cost.
Correction I mean to say $550billion not million.
Besides any nuclear plant to be ready takes at least 20 years. In this period the cost keeps rising because Zambia has no capacity to produce the components. Thats why I put the estimate at $550billion.
The figures do not add up. The 2400MW (2.4GW) Batoka Gorge Hydroelectric project will cost US$4 Billion. There is no way the 2.4GW or 2400MW nuclear power station can cost US$30 Billion by almost a factor of ten. It does not make economic sense if the nuclear plant is 2400MW or 2.4GW to cost US$30 billion .
When do we break even for US $ 30 billion? At a conservative guess 3000 years. We will owe Russia for centuries. We already owe China for how many centuries?
This should scare every Zambian irrespective of our politics. Nothing comes close to the financial burden it will impose on All of us.
Not with these empty tins like Lazy Lungu they will carry on regardless creating more employment for the Russians at our expense for a few silver coins in their pockets!!
If the officials implementing the project are insisting and saying this nuclear project of 2400MW or 2.4GW will cost US$30 billion then this is a scandal bigger than the fire engine scandal.
LT article: “Zambia and Zimbabwe plan to start construction of a $4 billion power-plant complex that will supply both nations next year.
The African Development Bank is advising the Zambezi River Authority on raising funds for the Batoka Gorge power plant and it’s likely that it will reach financial close by the end of the year as planned, Zambezi River Authority Chief Executive Officer Munyaradzi Munodawafa said in an interview Wednesday in Kariba, about 400 kilometers (249 miles) northwest of Zimbabwe’s capital, Harare.
The 2,400-megawatt project (2.4GW) will be located downstream from Victoria Falls on the Zambezi River that straddles the two countries.”
For a few silver coins in their pockets certainly no. The bribes they have received could feed Zambia for some 50 years
we reject this project; Lungu and those involved should expect to be arrested and imprisoned over this project some day;
Thats emotional argument
Thats why we shall never give you chance to rule
What you supposed to state is that Zambia has no capacity to handle such technology
Why not go Geothermal . Chongwe has underground hot springs
Nuclear technology will 24/7 on duty just like a hospital by experts
It also requires maintenance by experts at high cost
What’s the disposal plan
Can we handle a nuclear disaster
These are issues begging answers
Borrowing i bet.
Mr Nkandu Luo and ECL have already taken the bait to proceed against all odds! Listening Boma for you gullible citizens! The truth is this is a country worth leaving now – expect more economic troubles for the next 100 years and beyond! This means in addition to the $30Billion hidden debt, we’ll be taking on another $30Billion = $60Billion in debt against a declining GDP of less than $20 Billion? It means we are bankrupt! Even IMF is not sure how to help a country whose citizens have embraced corrupt leaders stealing borrowed money in their name and a culture of corruption of Ubomba Mwibala! Shameless Pompwes!
@ pompwe how can imf help gullible people like Zambians? We are a shameless people. Our opposition leaders are scared to the bones after chagwa threw them in jail one by one. No one can challenge him by organizing a discernible protest. This is their duty. Organize masses against this thief to force him to resign not just empty statements. Scared bunch of rats.
Look @ bigger picture.Everything has got risk including sex (HIV AIDS).
Over the next 50 years, mankind will use more energy than it has consumed in the entire history. Earlier predictions of energy consumption growth and evolution of energy technologies proved to be wrong as consumption is rising much faster than expected while new sources of energy are not likely to become commercially viable until 2030.Nuclear power is most reliable as it doesn’t produce carbon emission, smoke particles to cause acid. Requires less space and doesn’t depend on wheather like hydro, solar, wind turbines & greenhouse effect from.The only danger is meltdown, decommissioning( not yet on so far) & waste disposal.Like it or not ba kapususu neuclear will be the only way.
Compared to other types of power generation, nuclear power plants generate electricity for almost 90% of the hours within a year. This reduces a huge amount of price volatility that we see in other forms of energy like oil and natural gas.It produces only a small amount of waste, although this waste is radioactive.The supply of uranium is also widely available, and there are huge reserves that will be able to meet demand for hundreds of years to come. This is unlike coal, oil and natural gas, of which the stores are all depleting rapidly and will soon leave us scrambling for new options. without nuclear power, there would be over 2 billion metric tons of CO2 released into the atmosphere every year if the electricity was created instead by using fossil fuel. Nuclear is the way to go!
For those who would like some perspective, read either the book or the concept around the ‘Economic Hitman’ by John Perkins. You will understand that the script is the same; we are simply shifting sides. You will be given things you can ill-afford or even need. Before you know it you will be an expensive waste dump with very little control over your shortsighted lives… so good luck!
Do we have money for such a massive and dangerous project when we are falling to use freely given to us Copper, Emeralds Gold and Uranium to mend our tattered roads all over Zambia?
All over the world countries are shutting down nuclear plants why on earth does Zambia want to build one?
How did Nkandu Luo convince the entire cabinet to accept this?
We are failing to keep our towns and cities clean; how will will manage to handle a nuc disaster? if a so called lizard & monkey were able to cripple our power industry and it took a while to restore power; will we have capacity to handle a nuc disaster?
Kikikikiki … And imagine that disaster within the heart of Lusaka. The location itself for such a colossal experiment is senseless to say the least. How do they put such a facility near Lusaka, a densely populated area? And a so called Professor is spearheading this? When did Luo become Professor in Nuclear Energy? Kick backs and PF don’t mix well. They are ready to sell this country to anybody! So sad!
I don’t think GRZ mean nuclear power generation, it is ignorant ministers like luo who are perpetuating this misunderstanding……it is a medical and research nuclear facility that is being considered not for power generation…but for medicines in use for treatments like chemotherapy
What consultations were done before committing this country to huge unsustainable projects? Where is useless EIZ and ZEMA input? Luo is a biologist and not an engineer and what does ECL know? Give me a break. As for the protagonists who think nuclear is the only option, I challenge you to come up with real numbers. After which I suggest you go to Ukraine and Japan and visit Chernobyl and Fukushima. Solar currently costs about $1million per megawatt. Therefore 2.6GW would cost $2.6b of clean environmentally sound, easy to maintain energy. Not the millennium level financial and environmental disaster that is nuclear energy. It’s our country, our money and our future.
Consider climate change and pollution .
Does anyone else see why I suggested we build a Ministry of Common Sense… Government should listen to its citizens sometimes, more smart people on this forum than the individuals at the top leading us in to doom. We can’t afford a nuclear station and its not sustainable, not to mention a ridiculous waste of $…
I would rather we invest $30billion into SOLAR… after all, the Sun is the most powerful energy source in our Solar Syatem.
The Sun is also a fully functional fusion reactor, something that western science has failed to deliver after decades of research, but located at a safe distance and accessible as an energy source anywhere on the planet.
The ‘independent’ consultant is tied to the energy market share of his or her country South Africa. For this reason, the expression of fear or reservation is inspired. When the nuclear plant starts operating, it will double the quantum of electric energy available. By so doing, traditional exporters of electric power will lose a considerable size of the market share. At the same time, the country Zambia will increase its export market share in the region, including the country South Africa. This is a great opportunity to compare different figures. Is is win-win or win-lose or lose-lose? The time is running out. More electric power will lower prices an in the process raise levels of cost effectiveness nd productivity, especially in mining and manufacturing not to mention freedom from…
More electric power will lower prices and in the process raise levels of cost effectiveness and productivity, especially in mining and manufacturing, not to mention freedom from load shedding at household level.
The professor sounds like professor Hansungule, always negative about projects. In fact the actual script must have been done by Hansungule and only the name has changed.
We are going nuclear, come what may.
It’s an empty alarmist story typical of UPND and its sympathizers. It hasn’t mentioned how Zambia will or won’t benefit. What’s the life span of the plant and how much electricity is it going to generate? The cost of nuclear power is almost at par with hydro. It’s like somebody saying they will construct over 800km of tar between Lusaka and Ndola at $1.2BN and will recover the cost over 17yrs then Hichilema screams theft. Mambala will be the first to drive on the road, yet BP pensioners haven’t been paid because of his deals
This thief needs to be impeached …..
By the time Lungu finishes his term, you will surely wake up from Sleep Zambians.
Nuclear is the most efficient source of power, the problem with it is the disposal of nuclear waste. The benefits outweigh all the perceived fears associated with it. South Africa is using nuclear power but the author fails to highlight the benefits and straight went into elaborating negatives. He is happy for Zambia to be importing power from South Africa forever than Zambia being self-sufficient in power generation. Research before you condemn the proposal, like ba jay jay who is in a habit of condemning everything without a little thought.
Just another Chernobyl disaster waiting to happen. Who will maintain this plant?