By now, we are pretty sure Bright Nundwe, the newly elected MP for Chawama is done dusting his closet and itching to storm exclusive boutiques to replenish it with new designer suits and fancy shoes before laughing all the way to Manda Hill to sign up for a brand new ‘icipaso’ straight from the showroom!

Tough luck to all the losers….. including chancers such as Binwell Mpundu!

Anyway, this treatise seeks to encapsulate lessons, particularly the ruling party can learn from Chawama to avoid landing in the same ditch as we fast approach the 2026 general elections.

First things first: did the National Secretariat or party strategists take the trouble to interrogate and understand the history or indeed the dynamics of Chawama constituency post 2001 before putting the boots on the ground?

We deliberately choose to mention the said year because this is the period the country witnessed significant political developments in recent times which would greatly influence the direction our country would take, henceforth.

When President Chiluba attempted to adulterate the constitution to accommodate his insatiable appetite to run for a third term in the same year, a number of his cabinet colleagues, including his very own vice president, Gen. Christon Tembo, who also served as Chawama Member of Parliament, defied all the odds and emphatically said, “NO!” to the third term.

When this seemingly landed on deaf ears, Gen. Tembo along with 20 other MMD parliamentarians, including key cabinet ministers, resigned to form or join breakaway political parties. Gen. Tembo found a new home in the recently launched Forum for Development and Democracy (FDD).

Geoffrey Samukonga was adopted as the FDD’s torch bearer in the ensuing by-elections to fill up the occasioned vacancy in Chawama constituency.

As it were, FDD was seen to pose a serious threat to MMD’s hold on power. Since 2001 was an election year, a win for the infant opposition political party could’ve easily been interpreted as an endorsement for the opposition. And MMD wasn’t, of course, ready to see power easily slip off its fingers….. therefore, Chawama had to be defended at all costs; including the loss of blood!

Once the ruling party realised the odds favoured the opposition, it unleashed marauding political thugs in the area under the tutelage of one Michael Sata, a senior cabinet minister who would go on to become President.

Overnight, Chawama turned into a war zone! Violent party cadres armed with axes, spears and pangas and catapults went on rampage ruthlessly attacking people as well as torching vehicles!

According to eye witnesses, violence escalated when Minister-without-portfolio, Michael Sata led a gang of unruly ruling party supporters armed with machetes and stones on a tour of the 34 polling stations.

“The violence was engineered by the ruling party, and Michael Sata in particular, to create confusion and so enable MMD to tamper with the ballot boxes,” Ngande Mwanajiti, executive director of the Inter African Network for Human Rights and Development (Afronet) told the media. “MMD is responsible for all the political violence we have seen in recent weeks”.

FDD’s Samukonga went ahead to claim victory, of course.

By the time the 2006 general elections came calling, Sata’s Patriotic Front (PF) had already established itself as a formidable opposition political party in urban set ups. Sata had hastily formed his own political party after being ignored by President Chiluba as his successor. His party’s candidate in Chawama, Violet Sampa-Bredt would’ve little trouble sailing home to victory, effectively establishing the constituency as one of the party’s strongholds in the capital city.

And by the time the electorates trooped back to the polls during the 2011 general elections, another PF candidate, Edgar Lungu, would be thrust into the limelight as area MP!

When Lungu’s political fortunes suddenly changed for the better and he was catapulted into State House following the demise of the ailing President Sata in 2015,
Lawrence Sichalwe would find himself as MP on the PF ticket. He would cling on to the seat until he was arm twisted to pass on the mantle to Lungu’s daughter, Tasila prior to the 2021 general elections.

As fate would have it, Lungu would transition to the land of the dead while undergoing treatment in South Africa a few years later. Unfortunately, his family opted not to cooperate with the New Dawn Administration to have a state funeral for the former late President as so mandated by the law. This would of course result in contentious and prolonged court battles as either party sought one injunction after another.

In the long run, Tasila would end up losing her Parliamentary seat due to prolonged absence from the August house contrary to what the law stipulates, resulting in the recent by-election. And the rest is now history, as they say.

Anyhow, what’s our take away from the Chawama loss?

Without attempting to mince our words or sugar-coat anything, Chawama was handled haphazardly both before and during the elections:

1. Rolling-out the red carpet for Innocent Kalimanshi

As Innocent Kalimanshi was rejoining the ruling party, a red carpet was rolled-out for him with the UPND top brass, led by the Secretary General, Batuke Imenda, in attendance. Was that necessary?

One of the reasons the electorates flashed PF the ‘red card’ was caderism! Kalimanshi was the very epitome of caderism. He injured a lot of people not only in Chawama but Lusaka as a whole. Have the electorates forgiven him? What influence does Kalimanshi have in the area apart from amongst his fellow goons? Does Kalimanshi have what it takes to influence the youth or women in Chawama to vote for UPND? What message was he going to deliver to the people, if anything?

2. Exaggerated defectors
Before the Chawama by-election, UPND leaders addressed a number of rallies during which they always declared “thousands” had defected from the opposition to join the ruling party. Who physically took the trouble to take stock of the defectors? Would anyone be willing to avail such evidence? If indeed we had such record numbers joining the party at such a crucial moment, how come the opposition carried the day? We’ve seen that our leaders continue to make such ludicrous pronouncements the recent being in the Copperbelt!

3. Rewarding new comers
There were strong rumours circulating on social media that Kalimanshi was enticed and rewarded with an SUV before he could join. We’ve no means of verifying the authenticity of this suggestion. What we however know for a fact is that UPND has a tendency of neglecting old members but rather rewarding new ones! This can be very demotivating!

4. Pocketing campaign funds
It was rather embarrassing to learn that certain officials were pocketing campaign funds. To add salt to injury, there are also reports of someone diverting part of the carcass meant for the foot soldiers to their homes and 100 people sharing 2 chickens! Imwe, how do you dispatch foot soldiers in hostile enemy territory on empty stomachs and expect to win?

5. Eliminating formidable opponents
It’s now becoming fashionable in UPND to eliminate potential competitors from the race.

First and foremost, the adoption process in Chawama was quite shambolic! Initially, Potiphar Tembo who could have easily scooped the seat was somehow sent into foreign missions. A Katenga was then adopted but dropped shortly before roping in Morgan Muunda!

It seems this is becoming part of the game in UPND – eliminating potential formidable competitors! For instance, in Ndola Central, the DC m, a Mr. Phiri who could have easily been a better candidate was transferred to Kalulushi so as to pave way for a sitting MP….a cabinet minister! Equally surprising, the Kalulushi DC, Kelly Jibinga, who was curving a good name for himself by initiating numerous development projects was shunted to Chililabombwe to prevent him from standing! And in Kawambwa, Luapula province, local businessman and the people’s favourite, Wiza has just been sent to Angola as a diplomat so that he doesn’t pose a threat to the current MP.

Honestly, how can UPND expect to win the elections with such chicanery?

As we prepare for this year’s elections, we expect serious action! Heads must roll at the National Secretariat and the whip must equally be cracked in the provinces. The President and his political advisor MUST take charge of the party adoptions forthwith before we find ourselves in mwamoneni!

We rest our case.

Prince Bill M. Kaping’a
Political/Social Analyst
Zambezi

Mundubile Caught Between Party Loyalty and Alliance Momentum
Brian Mundubile finds himself at a pivotal moment in his political career, positioned at the intersection of Patriotic Front internal disputes and the Tonse Alliance’s struggle for operational clarity. His recent participation in a contested alliance meeting has elevated him from peripheral observer to central actor in a debate that extends beyond procedure into the future direction of opposition politics.

As leader of PF Members of Parliament and a declared presidential aspirant, Mundubile commands significant institutional influence. His standing among MPs provides him with leverage unmatched by many of his contemporaries. However, that influence also places expectations upon him to provide direction at a time when PF’s legitimacy is under sustained challenge.

Mundubile’s attendance at the Tonse meeting has been interpreted through competing lenses. For some, it signals willingness to engage with alliance structures seeking to move beyond PF’s courtroom battles. For others, it raises concerns about bypassing established party authority and exacerbating internal divisions.

The dilemma reflects a broader strategic tension. Remaining anchored exclusively to PF’s traditional structures risks tying leadership ambitions to a party still navigating legal uncertainty. Aligning openly with Tonse’s reformist impulses carries the risk of alienating loyalists who view alliance autonomy as displacement rather than renewal.

Recent by-election outcomes have demonstrated that voter behaviour is increasingly shaped by identity, legacy, and coalition appeal rather than procedural disputes. This reality places pressure on opposition leaders to prioritise broad-based mobilisation over internal gatekeeping.

For Mundubile, the challenge is not merely personal positioning but the demonstration of unifying capacity. Leadership in a fragmented environment demands decisions that reduce uncertainty rather than compound it. Delay or ambiguity risks leaving him influential yet constrained, a scenario that ultimately advantages incumbency.

As 2026 approaches, Mundubile’s choices will signal whether he intends to serve as a bridge between fractured structures or emerge as another figure defined by unresolved disputes. The stakes extend beyond individual ambition, shaping the opposition’s ability to present a credible alternative to voters seeking change.

A chat with a politician – a must read for Political Lahead of the 2026 General Elections

By Brian Matambo | Lusaka, Zambia

This was a private conversation with a political heavyweight in Zambia. I will not name the person. What matters is the substance of what we talked about, because it captures with unsettling clarity the crossroads at which the opposition now stands as the country approaches the 2026 general elections.

In the wake of the Chawama by-election won by the Tonse Alliance on the FDD ticket, the conversation revolved around one central warning: the opposition risks collective failure, not because the ruling party is invincible, but because ego, celebrity politics, and selfish calculation at the top are blocking strategic clarity.

My counterpart began by drawing a sharp and uncomfortable distinction between ordinary citizens and political leaders. The ordinary people, they argued, are far more alert to the real danger facing the country than the elites who claim to lead them. The failure is not at the base. It is at the top. Leaders are too busy protecting their positions, their visibility, and their personal relevance to confront the existential stakes of this moment. If leaders do not first grasp the danger, the message cannot filter down to the people who actually carry the vote.

I then introduced what I believe is the psychological core of the problem. Many contemporary politicians are not driven by ideology, policy, or national duty. They are driven by the desire for celebrityhood. Politics has become a shortcut to recognition. Artists, musicians, and actors work for years before applause finds them. Politicians, by contrast, want to step straight onto the red carpet. Titles, motorcades, and the intoxicating repetition of “Honourable” become addictive.

This produces a specific fear. It is not primarily the fear of losing state power, because many of these politicians privately know they are unlikely to win it anyway. The deeper fear is losing relevance, losing the limelight, losing the sense of being somebody. That is why stepping aside for a stronger candidate becomes psychologically impossible, even when it is strategically obvious.

This, more than ideology, explains why weak candidates insist on running, why fragmentation persists, and why unity talks repeatedly collapse. It also explains why, as I bluntly put it in the conversation, useless people enter politics. Politics has become an identity crutch rather than a service platform.

We then turned to the by-elections in Chawama and Petauke. We agreed that these were not isolated contests. They were protest votes against the ruling party. The ruling party was deeply unwanted in those constituencies, particularly because of their symbolic association with the late Dr. Edgar Chagwa Lungu. The electorate’s message was not subtle. Whoever best represented opposition sentiment stood to benefit.

I insisted these elections should have been used as a temperature check by opposition leaders. Instead, some leaders spun third-place finishes as victories, or worse, as proof of relevance. A distant third, especially where the gap between second and third is wide, is not competitive. It is relegation. Dressing it up as success is self-deception.

I openly ridiculed the logic that merely participating among “over 200 registered political parties” is a win. In a high-stakes national moment, participation without impact is political noise, not leadership.

Our discussion then shifted to data, because politics without data is guesswork masquerading as strategy. I shared findings from my own data-driven analysis. Southern Province is structurally difficult terrain for opposition forces, particularly since the emergence of UPND. Historical voting patterns from 1996 onward show deeply entrenched behaviour. Since UPND began contesting seriously in 2001, it has consistently posted above-average results in Southern Province, starting around 72 percent and climbing to over 90 percent support. Parliamentary dominance followed naturally.

By contrast, PF’s performance in Southern Province has historically been marginal, at times falling below one percent, with humiliating vote gaps in certain by-elections. The conclusion is unavoidable. Southern Province is not where elections are won for the opposition. Pretending otherwise is strategic fantasy.

The analysis then broadened to Lusaka and the Copperbelt, where trends are more fluid and therefore more decisive. Here, the data tells a different story. PF once dominated Lusaka, but its support declined as UPND rose, effectively swapping places. Similar patterns appear on the Copperbelt. Unlike Southern Province, these regions respond to performance, economics, and lived experience.

At this point, my counterpart quoted New Heritage Party President Madam Chishala Kateka who once said that UPND was an attractive opposition, but it is not an attractive incumbent. In power, the party has failed to generate goodwill, tangible improvement, or a season of favour. Unlike previous governments that at least enjoyed a honeymoon period, UPND never truly secured one. Discontent has been present almost from day one.

This is reinforced by contrasting UPND with MMD and PF. Both MMD and PF experienced periods where citizens felt progress or optimism, even if those periods later collapsed. UPND never crossed that threshold of broad public satisfaction.

I added that economic messaging alone is insufficient. Macro indicators, international praise, and flattering foreign headlines mean little to voters whose daily reality is defined by grocery prices, transport costs, and shrinking disposable income. Voters do not live in The Guardian’s economy. They live in Pick n Pay, Choopies, Shoprite, Mtendere Market, in real life on the ground.

I then raised what I believe is one of the most strategically underestimated forces in Zambian politics: the Catholic Church. With millions of adherents, it is a massive moral and electoral constituency. I warned that pastoral messaging focused on injustice, abuse of widows, persecution, and moral authority could decisively shape voter sentiment in the final weeks of a campaign. I noted how quickly even individuals previously aligned with UPND reacted when Archbishop Alick Banda was targeted. Loyalties shift fast when moral lines are crossed.

Eventually, the conversation then returned to opposition fragmentation, betrayal, and manipulation. My counterpart was blunt. Ruling parties fund confusion in the opposition. Some small parties are not meant to win. And I added that their function is to destabilise, delay, withdraw at critical moments, and weaken collective strength. Politicians linger, posture, and wait for inducements. They do not defect early because the best price is paid late.

Judas figures will always exist. Some betray out of malice. Others out of convenience. Others simply because money appeared on the way home. My counterpart lamented that trust, therefore, cannot be assumed. Systems must be built that anticipate betrayal rather than being shocked by it.

By Dr Sidney Kawimbe

In Zambia’s dynamic economic landscape, a new breed of entrepreneurs is emerging, young innovators and small-scale business owners who are building ventures based on action, experimentation, and adapting to real-world demand rather than on elaborate business plans. For decades, the traditional narrative of entrepreneurship emphasised detailed business plans, lengthy documents with projections, market analysis, and financial forecasts. Today, many Zambian entrepreneurs are proving that you do not need a formal business plan to begin creating value and earning income; instead, they are learning in real time, refining their ideas through direct engagement with customers.

Real Markets, Real Learning

Across Lusaka, Kitwe, Ndola and beyond, numerous small enterprises, from mobile social-media services to agricultural trading, are taking off as founders “learn by doing,” a phrase that reminds the author of his time at Technical and Vocational Teachers’ College Centre (TVTC) during the Tech 61 teaching course, where practical, hands-on learning was strongly emphasized. Many entrepreneurs start with what they have: a skill, a tool, a phone and an Instagram or WhatsApp account. They try selling a service or product, gauge customer response, adjust pricing, and gradually build trust and revenue without a formal plan drafted on paper. This approach mirrors global shifts toward lean entrepreneurship, where the emphasis is on testing a concept, responding to feedback, and refining a product often in iterative, short cycles. Instead of forecasting five years ahead, founders ask: What can we learn this month? Such grounded action is especially relevant in Zambia, where mobile penetration and digital platforms have expanded opportunity for informal and online commerce. Mobile apps and social media, for example, are increasingly used to connect buyers and sellers, facilitate transactions, and promote services, reducing the need for traditional offline setups.

From Informal Hustles to Scalable Ventures

This “start first, plan later” mindset has particular resonance among Zambia’s youth, many of whom face structural barriers to formal business registration and financing. While the government and private sector have made progress in empowering small businesses with initiatives to formalise and support micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) access to finance and market linkages remains a challenge for many without formal documentation. Nevertheless, entrepreneurship is increasingly seen as a viable pathway to employment and income generation. Government figures and experts alike have called on youths to engage in business and agriculture as means of self-employment and job creation, highlighting the potential of local enterprise to drive economic participation.

For many grassroots entrepreneurs, a detailed business plan may come later when they have initial traction, revenue, and a clearer picture of customer demand. Early efforts focus instead on building networks, finding customers, and demonstrating value. Practical experience, rather than hypothetical plans, becomes the foundation for future growth.

Benefits of Starting with Action

There are several advantages to beginning without a formal business plan:
• Lower costs and faster start-up: Without months spent on planning, founders can begin earning sooner.
• Adaptability: Real customer interactions provide immediate feedback that can shape products and services.
• Learning through doing: Entrepreneurs develop practical skills in marketing, pricing, negotiation and customer service simply by engaging in the market.

This model has broadened access to entrepreneurship for segments of the population who may not have formal training or business education but possess strong motivation and creativity.

Balancing Planning and Action

Experts, however, caution that while starting without a business plan can be effective, some level of planning and record-keeping becomes essential as enterprises grow. Managing finances, tracking expenses and planning for sustainability are key skills that can help ventures evolve from informal hustles into mature small businesses that contribute more fully to the economy.

Indeed, Zambia’s broader development agenda recognises the importance of supporting SMEs with training, financing and market access bridging the gap between early action and structured growth.

A Practical Path Forward

In Zambia’s entrepreneurial ecosystem, the story of business without a business plan is not about recklessness. It is about pragmatism: starting with what you have, learning directly from the market, and using real experiences to inform future decisions. By embracing this approach, many Zambians are discovering that entrepreneurship is not an abstract blueprint on paper, but a lived journey shaped by customers, opportunity, and resilience, proving that action can indeed be the first step toward sustainable business success.

The Author is a Senior Lecturer in Business at ZCAS University