The road to the 2026 general elections is increasingly being defined by a clear contrast between governance delivery and opposition disarray. The peaceful conduct of the Chawama parliamentary by-election, coupled with measurable policy outcomes under the United Party for National Development (UPND), has reinforced the ruling party’s structural advantage, even in moments where it has not emerged victorious at the ballot.

President Hakainde Hichilema openly commended political parties and independent candidates for maintaining calm and orderly campaigns in Chawama and other wards. He observed that the atmosphere stood in sharp contrast to past elections marked by violence, intimidation, and restricted political interaction. While on a working vacation attending to farming activities in Southern Province, the President continued to receive daily briefings and expressed satisfaction that political actors were able to engage freely and respectfully throughout the campaign period.

Following the by-election, State House challenged opposition figures who had alleged rigging and the existence of ghost polling stations to present evidence now that the process had concluded. At the same time, the President congratulated the winning candidate and praised the Electoral Commission of Zambia, law-enforcement agencies, and voters for conducting a peaceful and credible poll. The message was deliberate: democracy must be respected whether outcomes favour the ruling party or not.

Chawama is therefore instructive. UPND lost the seat, but gained something more consequential for 2026: proof that elections under its administration can be competitive, peaceful, and accepted without coercion or violence. The President’s response reflected institutional maturity, reinforcing confidence in democratic processes rather than undermining them. That posture matters to a growing segment of voters who value stability and order as much as political change.

Beyond elections, UPND’s position going into 2026 is anchored in delivery across key sectors. In education, free primary and secondary schooling has been restored nationwide and entrenched in law, bringing nearly 2.3 million children back into classrooms. More than 45,000 teachers have been recruited, student meal allowances at public universities reinstated, and hundreds of thousands of desks distributed to address long-standing shortages. Skills bursaries and student loan support have widened access to higher education.

In health, over 14,000 health workers have been recruited to address staffing gaps, while increased allocations for medicines and supplies have improved availability. Using expanded Constituency Development Fund (CDF) resources, councils have constructed more than 1,000 health posts, bringing services closer to communities.

CDF itself has become one of the most visible governance shifts.K40 million per constituency, translating to over K6.2 billion nationally. This decentralisation has funded classrooms, health facilities, community roads, equipment, and empowerment loans, changing how development is experienced at local level.

On the economy, Zambia’s debt restructuring has restored macro-economic credibility and eased long-term pressure on public finances. Investor confidence has followed, with announced commitments including a US$1.25 billion expansion at Kansanshi Mine and a US$2 billion investment in the Mingomba copper deposit. These developments have been reinforced by sovereign credit rating upgrades in late 2025, signalling international confidence in Zambia’s reform trajectory.

Equally significant has been the stabilisation of the kwacha. Historically, the festive season brought predictable currency weakness as demand for foreign exchange surged. This pattern was broken in late 2025, when the kwacha held firm and strengthened. Strong copper performance played a role, but policy choices mattered more. The Bank of Zambia’s directive requiring domestic transactions to be conducted in kwacha curtailed dollarisation, triggering conversions that lifted the currency to its strongest levels in over two years.

Structural reforms have also reduced pressure on foreign exchange. Zambia has moved from spending about US$600 million annually importing fertiliser to becoming a net exporter to the region. Cabinet approval to export surplus maize, exceeding 500,000 tonnes, has further turned agriculture from a forex drain into a source of earnings. These shifts reflect a broader move toward export diversification and import substitution grounded in domestic production.

Governance reforms have reinforced institutional order. Political interference in markets and bus stations has been curtailed, the death penalty abolished, laws criminalising defamation of the president repealed, and the Access to Information Act enacted. Media space has widened, and the rule of law has been emphasised as a cornerstone of stability.

Cost-of-living pressures remain a challenge for many households, a reality the government has acknowledged. Yet, taken together, the record shows a governing party focused on stabilisation, reform, and delivery while maintaining democratic openness.

Set against this is an opposition landscape marked by fragmentation across parties, alliances, and factions. Disputes over authority and leadership have dominated headlines, diverting attention from coherent policy alternatives. In a first-past-the-post system, such fragmentation dilutes votes and weakens mobilisation.

The lesson from Chawama is not rejection, but affirmation. Peaceful competition, credible administration, and acceptance of outcomes strengthen democracy. Those gains, combined with delivery across education, health, decentralisation, and economic stabilisation, explain why UPND enters the 2026 horizon from a position of strength. Unless the opposition undertakes a holistic reset that goes beyond individual parties or alliances, the structural balance continues to favour the ruling party.

Tonse Alliance Rift Exposes Opposition Fault Lines Before 2026
The Tonse Alliance has been plunged into renewed internal discord following contradictory positions taken by senior political figures over the legitimacy of a recent alliance meeting and subsequent administrative decisions, a development that is increasingly being viewed as advantageous to the ruling United Party for National Development as the 2026 general elections approach.

The dispute centres on a meeting convened by a faction associated with Dr Dan Pule and Zumani Zimba, during which resolutions were adopted affecting the Patriotic Front’s standing within the Tonse Alliance. Following the meeting, the faction announced that aspiring candidates would be required to pay K50,000 as a nomination fee, a move interpreted by critics as an assertion of operational authority.

However, Given Lubinda, acting as Patriotic Front Acting President and Acting Chairperson of the Tonse Alliance, rejected the meeting’s outcomes. Lubinda stated that the gathering had been irregularly convened and lacked his authority, calling instead for a Council of Leaders meeting to be held after the conclusion of ongoing by-elections.

The disagreement has drawn heightened attention because Brian Mundubile, a PF Member of Parliament and declared presidential aspirant, attended the contested meeting. His presence has been interpreted differently by rival camps, with some describing it as participation in an unauthorised process, while others argue it reflects engagement within alliance structures at a time when Tonse is attempting to assert independence from PF’s internal legal disputes.

No court order has been publicly produced to either validate or restrain the actions taken by either faction, leaving the matter suspended in political contention rather than judicial determination.

Beyond the immediate disagreement, the dispute has exposed deeper structural weaknesses within the opposition landscape. While recent by-elections have demonstrated voter dissatisfaction with economic conditions and governance challenges, opposition parties remain divided along organisational and leadership lines. These divisions have repeatedly shifted public attention away from policy alternatives and toward internal authority disputes.

For the ruling United Party for National Development, the fragmentation presents a strategic opening. Political analysts note that incumbents often benefit when opposition forces fail to consolidate messaging, leadership, and mobilisation structures. In such environments, electoral outcomes can be shaped less by popularity and more by organisational coherence.

The Tonse Alliance dispute also complicates fundraising, candidate deployment, and coordination of polling agents, all of which are critical components of a national campaign. Without a clearly recognised command structure, alliance partners risk operating at cross purposes, weakening their collective capacity to challenge incumbency.

As the 2026 election cycle draws nearer, the unresolved nature of the Tonse–PF relationship raises questions about whether opposition actors can move beyond internal disputes and present a unified alternative. Until such clarity emerges, the ruling party remains insulated from sustained, coordinated pressure, not by its own strength alone, but by the visible divisions among those seeking to replace it.

UPND Runing out of Time – Changala
Opposition political commentator and activist Brebner Changala has accused the ruling United Party for National Development of acting out of desperation as it seeks to retain power ahead of the August general elections.

Changala said recent political conduct by the ruling party reflects growing anxiety about its electoral prospects. He argued that instead of focusing on governance and service delivery, the UPND has increasingly resorted to aggressive political tactics aimed at suppressing dissent and weakening opposition forces.

According to Changala, the political environment has shifted significantly since the ruling party assumed office, with public patience wearing thin amid economic pressure and unmet expectations. He said the government’s response to criticism suggests an administration struggling to maintain legitimacy.

Changala pointed to what he described as selective application of the law, heightened intolerance toward opposing views, and increased political confrontations. He said these trends were inconsistent with democratic principles and raised concern about the direction of governance.

He argued that desperation often manifests when incumbents sense declining support. Changala said actions taken in recent months, including confrontations with opposition figures and heightened political rhetoric, indicated a ruling party preparing for a difficult electoral contest.

Changala also criticised what he described as the ruling party’s reliance on state visibility and institutional advantage. He said while incumbency provides access to resources and platforms, such advantages do not guarantee electoral success when public confidence erodes.

He said the upcoming elections would test whether voters prioritise accountability and performance over incumbency. Changala maintained that Zambians are increasingly conscious of the difference between political messaging and lived reality.

Changala further warned that desperation-driven politics carries risks for national stability. He said escalating tensions and confrontational tactics could undermine public trust in democratic institutions if not checked.

He urged the ruling party to respect political competition and uphold democratic norms as the election approaches. Changala said tolerance of opposing views and adherence to constitutional principles were essential to maintaining political stability.

Changala also addressed the opposition, saying unity and discipline would be critical in presenting a credible alternative. He said disorganisation within opposition ranks would only strengthen incumbency advantage.

He argued that the August election would be shaped by voter perception of fairness, leadership conduct, and economic conditions. Changala said desperation politics often backfires when voters perceive leaders as prioritising survival over service.

He maintained that political authority ultimately derives from the electorate and warned that attempts to cling to power through intimidation or manipulation risk long-term damage to democratic credibility.

Changala said the ruling party still had an opportunity to recalibrate its approach, but insisted that voters would render their judgment at the ballot.

Chilubi Member of Parliament Mulenga Fube has alleged that some opposition political parties that participated in the Chawama parliamentary by-election were sponsored by the ruling United Party for National Development, accusing them of deliberately working to divide the opposition vote.

Fube said the decision by certain opposition parties to field their own candidates instead of supporting a single candidate under the Tonse Alliance amounted to acting as paid mercenaries on behalf of the ruling party. He said such conduct weakened collective opposition efforts and handed an advantage to the UPND.

He described the behaviour as shocking, stating that the refusal by some parties to cooperate contradicted the broader call for opposition unity ahead of the August general elections. Fube said opposition parties that genuinely sought political change should have prioritised collective action over individual ambitions.

Fube alleged that some opposition leaders spent more time attacking fellow opposition figures than challenging the ruling party, a pattern he said raised serious questions about their independence. He said the conduct suggested the presence of hidden sponsorship arrangements designed to fragment the opposition.

He said the Chawama by-election provided clear evidence that unity was possible and effective when opposition parties worked together. According to Fube, the outcome of the by-election demonstrated that a united front could defeat the ruling party.

Fube said the opposition’s failure to act collectively in certain cases benefited the UPND by splitting votes and confusing voters. He said such strategies undermined the democratic process and eroded public trust in opposition politics.

He also accused some members within opposition ranks of applying double standards, saying it was disturbing that even individuals within established parties appeared willing to work against collective interests. Fube said such behaviour weakened the credibility of the opposition as a whole.

Fube called on opposition parties to reassess their positions and recommit to unity if they were serious about removing the UPND from power. He said ego-driven politics and personal calculations had no place in a movement seeking national change.

He said opposition unity was not optional but necessary, warning that continued fragmentation would only prolong the ruling party’s hold on power. Fube said the lesson from Chawama should guide opposition strategy going forward.

Fube maintained that opposition politics must be grounded in discipline, cooperation, and shared purpose. He said the electorate had shown a clear preference for unity and expected leaders to rise above individual interests.