Bank of Zambia (BoZ) says that the announcement of the date for tripartite elections will not slow down economic activities or affect the performance of the Kwacha but will trigger more business activities.
BOZ said this in contrast to Standard Chartered Bank which predicted depreciation of the Kwacha against the US dollar following the announcement of the election date.
Bank of Zambia Governor Caleb Fundanga said in an interview that the economy and currency will remain stable during elections because a lot of economic activities are expected to take place.
Dr Fundanga said the supply of US dollars on the market is dependent on exports and not elections, saying trade will continue even during the election period.
“The supply of US dollars on the market is dependent on exports. The question one may ask is whether exports are affected by elections, the answer is no. We, however, expect the demand for election materials go up, but I don’t see a strong relation with the Kwacha,” he said.
Dr Fundanga said the slowdown in economic activity and subsequent depreciation of the Kwacha experienced in 2008 were due to the global credit crisis and the elections.
“The results of 2008 had nothing to do with the elections but the global financial crisis, portfolio investors withdraw from all emerging markets whether they had elections or not,” he said.
“International organisations are saying elections or no elections Zambia is on the path of positive growth,” he said.
But Standard Chartered Bank head of global markets Stanley Tamele said the Kwacha is likely to trade at around K4,900 and K4,950 during the election period because of the political risk aversion associated with the election period.
Mr Tamele said historically, when Zambia and other African countries go to the polls, there is a tendency of people and companies holding on to their transactions until after elections.
“Investors tend to withdraw money from the economy and people hold on to transactions and US dollars because of the risks associated with politics,” he said.
Mr Tamele, however, said the Kwacha would pick up at around K4,700 after the elections.