By Nkonkomalimba Kafunda
The upcoming general election has had me thinking about how ruling party’s terms in office have been progressively declining since independence in 1964.
Broadly speaking the United National Independence Party (UNIP) ruled for six terms with strongman Kenneth Kaunda at the helm from 1964 to 1991, their last term being cut short by two years due to early elections brought about by popular discontent against the 17 year old one party state. On December 4, 1990 President Kaunda repealed article 3 of the constitution which had prohibited multipartism.
The unsilenceable calls for democracy concerted by pressure group turned political party, the Movement for Multi Party Democracy (MMD) had forced Kaunda’s hand.
At elections held on October 31, 1991 MMD candidate, firebrand union leader, sophistical rhetorician and accomplished orator, Frederick Chiluba convincingly trounced Kaunda garnering 80% of the popular vote. His party, MMD, won 125 of the 150 seats in the national assembly.
In 2001, Chiluba reluctantly anointed Levy Patrick Mwanawasa as his successor having failed to extend his reign beyond the constitutionally limited two terms.
At elections held at the end of December[Ma1] 2001, Mwanawasa emerged victorious with the narrowest of margins, a cloud of controversy and widespread accusations of rigging. His closest opponent, Anderson Kambela Mazoka of the United Party for National Development, formed only three years previously, trailed Mwanawasa by less than a percentage point, the latter getting around 28.3% and the former 27.6% or thereabout. A protracted legal battle ensued but Mwanawasa carried the day. Mazoka died in 2003.
Having successfully run for the 2006 re-election, Mwanawasa died in office in2007 and was succeeded by his vice president Rupiah Banda after the first ever Zambian presidential by election.
In 2011, the MMD’s four terms came to an abrupt halt when Banda lost the election to Michael Sata of the Patriotic Front. Upon Sata’s death in October 2014, Lawyer Edgar Chagwa Lungu took the reigns of power wining the presidential by election in January 2015 and the general election 15 months later.
Incumbent President, Hakainde Hichilema ended the PF’s two terms with a decisive victory at elections held on August 12, 2021. From the pattern that has been set above, would it be far fetched and unreasonable to conclude that the UPND is a one term government?
The reasons for the decline in ruling party fortunes are as varied as they are various. An overview.
United National Independence Party (1964-1991)
As the name suggests, UNIP was the party of liberation, independence and self determination for the Africans of Northern Rhodesia. Upon attainment of independence Kaunda and his colleagues set out to develop the infant country through education, health and infrastructure projects across all economic sub sectors. Additionally, they sought to transfer the means of production into indigenous hands. The Mulungushi and Matero reforms of 1968 1nd 1969, for all intents and purposes, nationalized industries ranging from insurance to banking, mining to haulage, transport to hotels and the hospitality industry in general. Coupled with investments in value added industry in rural areas such as pineapple cannery in Mwinilunga, batteries in Mansa, coffee in Kateshi, tea in Kawambwa, the government not only sought to strengthen its grip on industry, it also aimed to prevent rural urban migration.
UNIP also had a brutal side to it. Pro opposition businessmen were denied trading licences, UNIP card holders were given priority in getting both government employment and accessing government services like health care and education. Interparty violence was rampant as were detentions and prosecution of opposition leaders. In 1973 a one party state was introduced after a 1969 plebiscite that voted for abolition of the multi party state.
These changes made Kaunda, more or less, president for life. The position of Vice President was abolished clearly indicating that succession was not on Kaunda’s mind. (The country up to this point had had three Vice Presidents Reuben Kamanga, Simon Mwansa Kapwepwe and Mainza Chona, in that chronology). The oil crisis that followed the Yom Kippur war of October 1973 when Arab armies attacked Israel almost annihilating the Jewish state, coupled with falling copper prices wrecked havoc on the Zambian economy. The government borrowed heavily and unsustainably to meet budget deficits. In the early 1980’s the UNIP regime fell out with both Bretton woods institutions; The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)bringing an already fiscally handicapped economy onto it’s knees. Foreign exchange was in short supply to an extent that imports of things considered luxuries by the government were banned. Concentrates for Coca cola, apples, chocolates, butter were nowhere to be seen. A privileged few who had access to dollars could shop from a handful of duty free shops run by the government that charged hard currency for all goods and services. An attempt at self reliance was made and locally produced goods such as sub standard soft drinks Tip Top and Quench hit the shelves.
In the wider economy, there were shortages of almost everything. It was advisable, at the time, to join any queue you find as you may be lucky enough to buy one of the rationed essential commodities whether you needed it or not.
By 1986 the shit had hit the fan. Zambians had had enough. Food riots broke out in Lusaka and the Copperbelt shaking UNIP to it’s core, this being the first popular uprising against Kaunda and his cohorts. By 1990 the writing was on the wall. On June 30 Junior army officers unsuccessfully attempted to overthrow the government. On July 25-26 the MMD was formed to push the multiparty agenda. On December 4, Kaunda capitulated freeing all political prisoners (including coup plotters) and repealed article 3 of the constitution ushering in a new multi party dispensession.
Movement for Multi Party Democracy (1991-2011) The MMD with Chiluba at the helm inherited a country in economic decline. The mines were suffering from lack of reinvestment. The transport sector was inadequate. There were shortages of almost everything from beer to mealie meal, cooking oil to washing soap. The parastatal sector had failed. The government set about liberalizing access to the economy and privatization of state owned enterprises, or at least those that were viable. The result was massive redundancies and retrenchments, the shrinking of formal employment figures and closure of many companies which could not compete with imports from more efficient production process from more advanced economies.
An economic Structural Adjustment Program was put in place. This was later replaed by a more advanced Enhanced Structural Adjustment Program the forerunner to the Highly indebted Poor Country HIPC) initiative.
When Mwanawasa ascended to power in January 2002 he continued with these policies which enabled the country reach the HIPC completion point and debt relief with help from the catholic driven Jubilee 2000 initiative. The country enjoyed a period of macro economic stability, a strong exchange rate that led to importation of vehicles and other luxuries by ordinary citizens. In this period of relative prosperity, the mines were privatized and new operations opened up in North Western Province. These green fields included Lumwana and Kansanshi mines.
Upon Mwanawasa’s death in 2007, Vice President Banda won the by election. His short three year reign, by and large, did not shift from the path left by his predecessor. Banda was seen as a steady pair of hands who loved his peace and frowned upon anything that would rock the boat. Economic fundamentals were largely positive, with low inflation, a stable exchange rate, reasonable base lending rate and negligible foreign debt.
However, Zambians wanted change and in Michael Sata and his political rhetoric they saw deliverance. The populist former MMD National Secretary and CEO whipped up popular support promising the masses ‘more money in your pockets’ and encouraging voters to accept campaign freebies from the MMD without necessarily voting for them. This won him the 2011 poll with 43% against Banda’s 38%.
From the outset the Sata presidency was a comedy of errors. He appointed people to positions they did not qualify (at one time appointing a bank branch manager relative as Deputy Governor of the central bank) he nominated 10 members of parliament instead of 8. He created districts with no budgetary provision for their establishment.
At a luncheon held at state house in honor of the then immediate past American President George W Bush and his wife, Sata had to be corrected by Bush that the Americans, having been a colony themselves, had never colonized any country, after Sata had lambasted American colonialism in his speech.
On the economic front, the disaster was worse. Money was borrowed at commercial rates rather than the traditional concessionary rates of the World Bank and the IMF, through three Euro Bonds totaling US$3 billion. More loans were contracted bilaterally, most notably from China ostensibly for infrastructure projects. This trend continued after Sata’s demise and Lungu’s ascendancy.
But what really cost the PF the election was the unprecedented levels of Indispline exhibited by both party cadres and officials. Harassment of traders, bus drivers and ordinary citizens became so common place that it was the rule not the exception. Cadres charged and collected levies from bus stations and markets. The police were rendered impotent in the face of cadre aggression to an extent that cadres once stormed a police station and assaulted officers. By the time the United Party for National Development (2021-) came to power in August 3021, the country was back at unsustainable debt levels, an empty treasury and the notoriety of having been the first African country to default on its foreign debt obligations during the COVID pandemic.
After it’s resounding victory, the UPND set debt restructuring as a priority . After protracted negotiations with the Paris Club of creditor nations co chaired by France and China, the country is now paying around US$900million from US$2.3 billion per year and the administration is seeking ways to reduce this even further even though this is really kicking the can down the road as future generations will find and struggle with this debt.
Macro economic stability has been attained, with single digit inflation and a stable exchange rate, the Kwacha having gained about 33% in value in the past few months. The UPND has introduced free education, school feeding programs, bursaries for tertiary education and grants and loans for cooperatives through enhanced Constituency Development Funded which has skyrocketed from K1.6 million in 2021 to K40 million in 2026. In the agriculture sector, support has been enhanced with the introduction of various financing programs for farmers. Interventions have also been made to support growth in tourism, mining and manufacturing.
The problem working against UPND longevity in office is the cons outweigh the pros. The cost of living remains unbearably high for the vast majority with families having one or no meal a day . Whatever gains the UPND may have achieved, real or imagined, have not had a trickle down effect. Prices have remained stagnant or have gone up. Selective justice on mainly corruption and other economic crimes is largely seen as targeted at the opposition Patriotic Front leadership and their followers. Shenanigans to discombobulate the PF through an orchestrated campaign of destabilization has backfired with Zambians sympathizing with the PF for what they see as gross injustice.
The fight against corruption is seen as largely flawed, with many questioning the autonomy of the Anti Corruption Commission and the Drug Enforcement Commission where the country’s Anti-Money Laundering Unit sits. Deals like the sale of Mopani mine without parliamentary oversight as required by law, and the haughtiness and arrogance exhibited by mines minister Paul Kabuswe when questioned in parliament have not held the ruling party in good stead.
The tendency by government to enter into Memoranda of Understanding with foreign investors containing non disclosure clauses and the dishing out of ten year tax holidays to foreigners, a courtesy not extended to locals, has also raised suspicions on accountable and transparent management of national resources. Infrastructure projects under Private Public Partnerships have also been questioned after roads and bridges failed, in some instances, less than a year after completion.
Oversight institutions of governance are seen as ineffective. The judiciary, for instance, is considered compromised, prone to political interference from the executive and generally invertebrate.
Perhaps the elephant in the room, the whale in the tub that everyone is seeing but not talking about, is the perceived tribalism evidenced in the disproportionate number of southerners in top government and quasi government institution positions. Reports of harassment, intimidation and mistreatment of non Tongas in the civil service and government agencies are rife causing widespread resentment against southerners who are estimated to make up only 12% of the population.
Additionally, the despised , ill defined cyber crimes and cyber security laws are seen as tools used to shrink the country’s democratic space and are being used to stifle dissent. If this were a game park, freedoms of speech, expression and assembly would be considered endangered, almost extinct species. Fred M’membe leader of the socialist party recently revealed that his party had unsuccessfully applied for rally permits 34 times since 2021 adding that the election will be a sham as the opposition have been denied their right to mobilize.
The most abused provision of these laws is hate speech whose definition remains ambiguous, vague and opaque.
The UPND, however, have one thing going for them: a fragmented opposition. The seeds of discord they surreptitiously planted in the PF are now bearing fruit or are they? Mafinga PF Member of Parliament Robert Chabinga is considered a traitor and his sentiments that he will ensure the PF is not on the ballot clearly define the content of his character or in this case the lack of it. In fact is it wise for the UPND to embrace him whole heartedly? What if he is offered more silver in future to do a repeat hatchet job this time on the UPND?
Although Miles Sampa is back in the fold, Brian Mundubile and Makebi Zulu are leading two separate campaigns for the presidency when theirs should be a combined effort.
The mass defection of MPs, Mayors and Councilors, while stage managed for the optics to have maximum effect of showing a week and disoriented opposition, have not fooled the people with the majority of callers to various radio stations having no kind words for the renegades.
The biggest opposition, however, remains the hungry and angry people of Zambia who feel they have been lied to, trampled upon and taken advantage of. They often cite the prolonged load shedding the nation endured while ZESCO was exporting power to the region as an example of how indifferent this government is. The fact that normal supply has been restored as we head to elections is seen as a ploy to hoodwink voters.
After four and a half years of UPND rule, are Zambians waiting for dusk to set to the new dawn come August 13? We shall wait and see.
