The opposition MMD says it came second to the ruling Patriotic Front in the just ended by-elections by the number of total votes amassed.
MMD Chairman for Elections Kenneth Chipungu says contrary to the common belief that the former ruling party was the biggest loser in the five by-elections; The party in fact came second to the PF after amassing 15,532 votes against the PF’s 16,068 votes, while the UPND managed 8,012 votes in total.
Mr Chipungu points out that the 536 votes gap between the PF and MMD demonstrates that there were almost as many people that voted for MMD as PF, while there was 7,520 votes gap between MMD and UPND.
He states that PF Secretary General Edgar Lungu’s statement that the ruling party would get a massive victory in the 2016 general elections after winning three of the five parliamentary by-elections is therefore misleading.
Mr Chipungu says the overall total votes are more important than the total constituencies won.
[pullquote]The party in fact came second to the PF after amassing 15,532 votes against the PF’s 16,068 votes, while the UPND managed 8,012 votes in total.[/pullquote]
He explains that a political party can win more constituencies, yet is beaten by another party that win a few large constituencies.
Meanwhile, former party vice-president for politics Michael Kaingu has said that the MMD’s losses in the just-ended by-elections are a clear
vindication of previous calls by members to re-organise the party
through an extra-ordinary convention.
Dr Kaingu said in an interview that party leaders then, such as vice-president for administration Brian Chituwo and spokesperson Dora Siliya foresaw the challenges of the party under the leadership of Dr Nevers Mumba and the need to dissolve leadership and start afresh.
“When we were calling for the reorganisation of the party, people misunderstood us,” Dr Kaingu said. “We foresaw these challenges and the right thing the party should have done was to dissolve the leadership and call for fresh elections through the extra-ordinary convention.”
He said unless a serious strategic approach was taken, MMD would continue to record losses and its popularity would continue dwindling.
Dr Kaingu advised the current party leadership to come up with a comprehensive strategy and work hard to regain the confidentiality of the people.
“At the moment as a mere ordinary member of the party and a member of Parliament for Mwandi Constituency, all I can say is that the vibrancy of MMD entirely depends on the current leadership and the strategies they will put in place to save the party,” Dr Kaingu said.
He said there was need for introspection by the members to save the party from further oblivion.
The party lost three of its four seats it held previously in the recent by-elections.
Dr Kaingu also refuted claims that he had left MMD to form a new party with other members that were removed from their positions.
“I am still a staunch MMD member and also an MP in Mwandi Constituency where the party is still vibrant, people will continue coming up with speculations and this does not surprise me,” Dr Kaingu said.
“When we were calling for the convention people said I had been bought by the PF (Patriotic Front). Now that I have not moved they come up with rumours that we have formed a party, it is not true.”
Nice spin ba MMD to make yourselves feel better, but again am worried for my UPND. If these numbers quoted are correct, then we need to do more in areas were we are not strong to start closing the gap. It is the presidential vote that counts a lot at the end of the day.
This why my party don’t participate in MP by-elections, we believe popularity in Presidential elections.
Ba MMD five of the bye-elections where held in your former strongholds, yet you only retained one seat. You have every reason to worry since you are slowly moving towards extinction.
They maybe the best of the REST
But who is the BEST of the BEST
I will leave that for you to make it up
The bible is very clear on this
“Makes Jesus your Lord proud of you by being good citizens. Respect the authorities, whatever their level; they are God’s emissaries for keeping order. It is God’s will that by doing good, you might cure the ignorance of fools… Exercise your freedom by serving God, not by breaking the rules. Treat everyone you meet with dignity. Love your spiritual family. Revere God. Respect the government.” 1 Peter 2:13-17
The above is talking about a sitting president like Mr Sata and the respect to be accorded to PF
Thanks
The numbers are true but not sure about 2016
Mr Kenneth don’t beat about the bush, just say UPND is a minor judged by the figures you have given out and don’t compare MMD to PF cause PF walloped you in 2011. The battle should be between MMD and UPND as you compete for official opposition party in the country.
Ba MMD, so you’re happy to fight and settle for second place. Don’t you know that second place is the first loser?…losers!
In this age of voter apathy its commendable that Victoria Kalima for the MMD managed to gather over 10 000 people in her Kasenangwa constituency to vote for her.Whatever she did should be emulated by all Mps and MP wanabes.
Had Traitors not added their detraction, MMD could easily have beaten PF going by Mr Chipungu’s figures. It also reveals that since 2011 popularity gap between MMD and PF has almost stayed the same.Good news for MMD. This is despite defections of bamuselela kwakaba. It’s highly likely that Nevers Mumba forms the next administration come 2016.
Unfortunately that thinking counts for little in the Zambian Context. Since the exit of Chiluba, the majority of the voters have continuously voted for the opposition but they still ended up being ruled by the minority vote. We need a little more than simple arithmetic to arrive at the decision of the population in our situation.
Hmm…would you care to elaborate on your comment as it does seem a bit flawed. In Zambia the President is elected by a simple majority, in which case the logic used by MMD in this report. The combined vote of MMD and UPND is more than that of the PF but that does not matter because PF has the simple majority, followed by MMD….And that is the point of MMD. I.e taking the simple majority approach that is used to elect the President they are not that far behind PF. On that basis they are claiming to have made progress
@blabla: I read ‘You and Me’ to mean that a simple majority can in reality be the minority. In other words, a simple majority of, say, 43% is effectively a minority; since 57% of the voting electorate actually voted for someone else other than the winner. Hence the statement: “Since the exit of Chiluba, the majority of the voters have continuously voted for the opposition but they still ended up being ruled by the minority vote.” Reading in-between lines, ‘You and Me’ seems to be advocating the 50% +1 as the ideal majority.
self-consolation
“Where” and “Were” confused as usual. English teachers must be very frustrated while the Queen of England must be swearing never ever to venture into empire building and language exportation.
Folks, its simple. “Where” is about location or direction while “Were” is the past tense of “are”. Come on, people, which schools did you go to? I went to school in one of the remotest places of our beloved Zambia. And, it was in the 1960s. And we learnt in local languages in the first 4 years!!
@Let me say this
You are wrong. You should up your skills in IT. Auto Correct, on most applications replaces words with what it feels is correct on submitting. This is a common problem with Mobil texting. As an MA in Digital Media, I have assessed the way the LT Editor processes text. It does have an aggressive auto correct that leans towards gobbledygook! Some of the word replacements are not of error.
British Educators have raised the same language concerns relating to White Indigenous British!! Corporate Britain raised concerns of failures in Language and Grammar of graduates. There is a campaign to improve literacy and numeracy skills in schools.
Zambians using a second language manage as well as they can here, it’s important to hear their opinions in this forum.
Mr. “Let me say this” Is it ‘English teachers’ or ‘Teachers of English’?!
In your face! Mr. “I Know it all!”
When you start consoling yourselves in such a manner know that you’re really finished. MMD was once a giant and now it’s nothing, simply because it lost track of what the people wanted. With all the government propaganda at your disposal, the people rejected you. This should be a big lesson to anyone wanting to enter politics. Sadly for MMD, very unlikely that Zambians will return to such vomit.
Must be quite uncomfortable belonging to this party, you know it’s not there but somehow you just have to keep appearing at party meetings and events. Politics is pure sh8t, that’s why we clever ones watch from the sidelines
Oh my word! Hats off to you Kudos! You actually managed to post a whole comment without mentioning HH, Cows or dung. There’s hope for you yet laddie!
Kudos I read you and for the first time you sound logical. Read my comment below so that you help me explain to the gullible MMD zealots. This was not an election for numbers but for seats. MMD has lost 4 seats out of 5. They have returned 1. UPND has lost one seat out of one but they have managed to grab one as a replacement in the same Province. PF has lost non but have gained three from MMD and one from UPND. The net gainer is PF. UPND amounts to sum ZERO while the net losers are MMD who have 4 seats less. This is simple logic. You cant count Oranges as apples. A Parliamentary BY-ELECTION is a Parliamentary BY-ELECTION. It is not a Presidential Election. This is about seats and not numbers. MMD is headed for the dust bin. Nothing will redeem it. UPND should quickly reorganise.
That is because the majority of the voters came from Kasenegwa where almost about 16,000 (75% of the registered voters) turned up to vote. If i were you i wouldn’t use those figures to gauge the party`s performance. Kasenengwa is a one off. If i was doing a statistical data analysis i might consider removing Kasenengwa from because it is as an outlier.It definitely skewed the data.
Not so fast!! Why would you want to exclude Kasenegwa as an outlier? Is it not also possible that this is peculiar to MMD strongholds…meaning in all MMD strongholds in which they have MPs the voter turnout will be very high including in 2016? This would then definitely skew the result in favour of MMD, especially if there will be apathy by the supporters of the other parties. I am not saying this is the case, except that we do not have basis to exclude Kasenegwa an outlier
The vote in Kasenengwa was for an MP. That was the mandate. The vote equally reflects the popularity of the winning candidate versus those who ran against him/her. It is not a reflection of the popularity of the party of the winning candidate per se. In similar situations elsewhere, independent candidates have managed to carry the day. It has to do with the strength of the winning candidate and not necessarily the popularity of the party of that candidate. This rejoicing by MMD only shows how depravity the party has become, unfortunately.
Correction: “..only shows how depraved the party has become..” NOT “depravity”
Very true statement. Kasenengwa skewed the graph but there is a point. If you go Presidential, it is a worth factor.
This analysis is from NEVERS MUMBA who want to cling to the position of Party President even when he knows he has failed the Party. This so called man of God is a saved he wants to go down with the Party which us the owner of the Party we are saying, we want RB BACK to salvage the Party from dying. Pastor Mumba he is fund-raising using the name of the Party that is why he is holding to it, he does not care if he wins or lose in 2016 as long he will be on the ballot paper some well wishers will give him money for campaign but he will just pocket it, it will never reach the intended people. Plz Dr. Mumba spare the party leave it for the people who are serious you have failed to inspire membership. The support for MMD in Kasenengwa is not yours it is for RB
Iwe True Blue, we know you are sponsored by RB. Tell your boss to stop his political hallucinations. He belongs to the political museum and he is not coming out. Zambians will never accept him back. You are the same divisive selfish people who keep telling RB that he is popular. You hope to eat with him if he wins.
Keep dreaming because Mumba, Sata, Mumembe, Nchito and Mahtani will never allow Rupiah to get back into plot one. Who can survive a sustained attack from such a formidable team who shall have a common enemy?
Only Weastern and North-Western Provinces are liberal provinces!
The worst tribalistic provinces in Zambia are Luapula, Northern and Muchinga Provinces. They will never vote for a party whose leader is not a Northerner, but they would want their people to be voted for by electorates in other provinces – they say Hakaivotela Hemwine!
Western and North-Western, wake up! No wonder you are called cinderella provinces: Ku six Cloko!
You see sometimes its better to keep quiet that exposing your ignorance in this manner. If you follow elections in Zambia you will easily know that what you are saying is false. Just do the simple thing of visiting the Electrol Commission website and check for the results of the heavily contested elections between Mwanawasa (a bantubotatwe) and Sata (a Northern). You will actually discover that Mwanawasa defeated Sata by getting 53% of the votes in Northern province against Sata’s 38%. Infact Mwanawasa defeated Sata in the Bemba capital, Chinsali and other Bemba constituencies like Lupososhi, Kaputa, Mporokoso, Chembe, Lunte etc. What matters is the message. Now tell me which non-southern presidential candidate has won seats in Southern since 2001, except for the metropolitan Livingstone?
The worst tribalistic provinces in Zambia are Luapula, Northern and Muchinga Provinces. They will never vote for a party whose leader is not a Northerner, but they would want their people to be voted for by electorates in other provinces – they say Hakaivotela Hemwine!
Western and North-Western, wake up! No wonder you are called cinderella provinces: Ku six Cloko!
Can the writer of this comment talk about southern province who do they vote for during elections? Northern province and luapula is not like southern where they vote their people only.Tell them to change or else you will not see our votes too.
@john: Like Northern and Luapula Provinces and now Muchinga, Southern Province has always voted along tribal lines. It is easier seen when it is on someone else than when it is on you.
OH NO. IT IS NOT AS SIMPLE AS THAT. FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL VOTE YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT ZAMBIA AS A WHOLE AND GET THE SUM TOTAL. VOTING IS NOW REGIONAL AND SOMETIMES TRIBAL. AND ALSO PARTIES HAVE STRONG HOLDS. YOU CAN SCOOP EVERY VOTE IN YOUR STRONGHOLD BUT STILL LOSE AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL. IT DEPENDS ON HOW BIG YOUR STRONGHOLDS ARE AND HOW MUCH SWAY YOU COMMAND IN YOUR STRONGHOLD.
Is the man in a blue suit the man who peed in the council chamber in Eastern province? He seems to be pouring a heavy stuff in a coke can.
Hehehehehehehehe. I also noticed that. And it seems he was hiding it in his socks
He was mixing with ka jilijili…
i dont agree with your method of comparison ba mudala. select constituency by constituency then comapre. the truth is that most of the votes for MMD came from kasenengwa which might have contributed 66% or thereabout of the total for MMD. so remarket MMD, dont comfort yoself, things are fine
Bloggers, again I beg you. Ignore ‘TRUE BLUE’. It is wounded buffalo madam ‘Yours Truly’ who has tried everything in the book to get rid of Nevers Mumba and has lamentably failed. Her last tramp card is to drag RB back into politics. But even that has failed even before it starts.
Kaingu and Madam Yours Truly have no favour from God that is the worst problem. They are fighting against invisible beings who are on Nevers Mumba’s team. They will try everything, but as this report has shown, things are turning towards Nevers. The man who Kaingu and Madam Yours Truly were helping to kill MMD and get rid of Nevers, has been fired.
More are going. The other ‘know it all’ from North West has lost on his own and is now just one of us. People rebelled against him.
What is so special about MMD coming second to PF? What should be noted is that MMD and UNIP will never come back to power. After PF it will be another vibrant party. Shortly MMD will be coming out third, fourth, firth and finally it will not even be on record!
I’m scared with the logic being presented by MMD and a number of people on this site. MMD has lost 4 seats. UPND lost one but gained one from MMD. This is simple. PF is leading. The second is UPND because they lost one seat to PF but went ahead to grab one from MMD. The net losers are MMD who will go back to Parliament 5 Seats less. UPND will maintain the same number and PF will have 4 seats to their credit. This is not a Presidential election. These were Parliamentary BY-ELECTIONS. They were about seats and not number of votes. So mmd should start crying because both the PF and UPND are grabbing seats while they are grabbing none. Mwilayumfwisha bwino when thing are not ok. How many seats has MMD grabbed from UPND and PF? ZEEEEROOOO! So who is growing? PF and UPND.
MMD is bigger than a trible Upnd lead by bid mouth Hungry Hyna. HH only cheats himself that he will ever rule Zambia when his party is always coming third.
Whether he rules or not facts are that both PF and UPND are grabbing seat from the once mighty MMD. They are on the death roll what is remaining is execution. Whether UPND is tribal or not, it is doing better than MMD. By the way who is not tribal? Even Guy Scott plays tribal Politics. It is a fact. Even in the USA Parties are regional. In Britain the Scots never vote for labour. That is their choice. Tongas have a choice just like bembas. They have chosen UPND while Bembas have chosen PF. Who cares what you call me? I still remain who I’m. God said “I’m who I’m”. Meaning whatever you think of me, I still remain GOD. Whatever you think of HH, he still remains HH. I love him and not even your vulgar language will ever dissuade some of us from voting for him.
well done MDD its not easy in the opposition.your president is trying his best support him.
@Kafupi-These numbers are very true.You can verify with ECZ.This is why UPND should not deceive themselves that they can win the general elections.And Kaingu the spent force should just shut up and just wait for his gratuity.Am told Dora and Team have formed a political Party called Genuine People’s Platform(GPP),and wants Cpt.Chewe as President.To them,this is the Leadership they want-sorry William-Belly politics chabe.
Get rid of Mumbwe if you want to be NO1.
Shows a big gap in statistical understanding Mr Chipungu. Your huge numbers are due to one outlier Constituency (Kasenengwa). Under such a situation it can be described as chance occurrence. Imagine this single Constituency was in say Mpika or Choma or Kabompo, would you still use the criteria you have just used to determine your performance? Look at your votes across the Constituents and make an informed inference about your popularity and do not bury your head in the sand. Free advice boss.
PF authenticity:
Where is the existential efficacy of any of the previous Ruling Parties of the Republic of Zambia:
• UNIP (now virtually moribund as a failed family legacy)
• MMD (the previous Boss now wants to stage or is staging a come-back: I must say with very good chances of success)
• PF (tightly held by the incumbent: after September 19, 2014 opening of Parliament event; the dice is cast; notwithstanding the relevance of the Kabimba debate)
As of the many beneficiaries of the multiparty dispensation, what can they really deliver: new approach, alternative to one-party rule; just one family business or a building block to real democracy?
Advice from George Diesel Mpombo ” “It should be understood that the PF did not win due to alleged deployed stomach infrastructure but it took advantage of fatal lapses on the part of the opposition,” said Mpombo.
2.“Unless this obtuse delusion, deception and denial are shed off, the opposition will soon find itself in a serious political operational cul-de-sac and unable to challenge PF in 2016.”
3. Mpombo said the senseless political cannibalism of vote splitting would continue to diminish the opposition’s chances of winning elections.
4. “The election results should therefore jolt the opposition out of its political somnambulist state as politics is about numbers and effective strategy and not on some form of political abracadabra or hackneyed political hustings,” he said.
5. “For…
Wherever and ‘whyever’ the MMD votes were achieved is immaterial. MMD came second to the ruling party which should send shivers to PF. President Sata already said the biggest threat he has is the MMD Volcano.
Even if they have managed to take a lot of MMD’s seats and destroyed the structures, MMD is not headed by a man. It is headed by God himself that is why noone in MMD can be a Personal to Holder president. HH is the personal to holder president of UPND, Mr. Sata owns PF but in MMD God alone chooses the leader for each season whether the people like it or not.
@katongo
Oh no, God is far more reasonable than that.
Remember in the Bible, He allowed us to have Kings rather than be led by Prophets!! The people chose that option.
We too must choose wisely. Start understanding mandates by all parties and pick the one that makes sense. Pick your party not by tribe or false promises.
@Patriot-You don’t know the Bible fully.David was both Prophet and King.
HON KAINGU IS ONE OF THE BAD EGGS IN MMD WHO SHOULD QUICKLY LEAVE THE PARTY. HIS LIED THAT HIS EXCUSE FOR NOT GOING TO JOIN THE CAMPAIGN TEAM IN MANGANGO WAS BECAUSE HE WOULD HAVE BEEN ‘INTERFERING’ BUT MUHABI LOOK TOLD THE WHOLE NATION ON AIR THAT HON KAINGU HAD DEMANDED K50,000.00 FROM THE PARTYIF HE WAS TO GO TO MANGANGO.
WHAT KIND OF AN MMD SUPPORTER IS THIS? HE KNOWS THAT THE COFFERS OF THE MMD ARE DEPLETED. FIRST OF ALL ANDELEKI FORCED THEM TO PAY A FAKE FEE OF k400 MILLION TO AVOID DEREGISTRATION.
THEN THE ENDLESS BY-ELECTIONS HAVE COMPLETELY WIPED OUT RESOURCES.
MR KAINGU YOU ARE AN IRRITANT TO GENUINE MMD SUPPORTERS AND SEE IT AS THE ONLY HOPE OF THIS COUNTRY. TAKE THE DECENT STEP AND GO.
Look at him in the picture with one trouser leg up! That is a Freemason ritualistic symbol.
Concur, please let Zambia be free of ‘men in dark clothes’ with dark agendas.
Where have you seen a politician in the west with his trouser leg up in media! Freaky!!
@Katongo Nsambe-Kaingu is just a hired gun.He said campaigning for MMD is interferance.Now doesn’t he think negative talk against MMD is interferance?This polygamist is just bad news,just waiting for his Parliament gratuity.
The election result in Kasenengwa, in statistical terms would be referred to as an outlier i.e. an observation point that is distant from other observations. An outlier may indicate experimental error and is sometimes excluded from the data set. The MMD candidate in this constituency may have been extremely popular crossing party lines and in terms of statistics it would be wise to exclude her from the data set otherwise erroneous conclusions could be drawn.
The vote in Kasenengwa reflects the popularity of the MMD parliamentary candidate versus those who ran against him/her. It is not a reflection of the popularity of MMD as a party, per se. It shocks me that MMD leadership can fall so low! Who are they trying to deceive if not themselves?
Senior Engineer, There is nowhere whereyou do reseatch analysis like that. DATA IS DATA.
According to your argument, we should remove the high PF vote in Northern and Luapula?
The point being made is that most probably because PF is unstable right now it impacts on sensiteive issues. The president’s health has been challenged and the ruling party is falling apart, they had to seem like they have won.
People believe Solwezi and Vubwi went to MMD.
Yes data is data. But what is wrong is to draw conclusions from an outlier. If you had plotted a graph after conducting an experiment in your academic career you would understand what I mean.
Please look at my definition of an outlier: A single observation that is at a distance from other observations. If the PF had only one high election result in say Luapula and Northern Province I cannot say that the PF is popular in Luapula and Northern Provinces because of one high election result which is an outlier by definition. When the PF scoops all the seats in Luapula and Northern Provinces and the UPND all seats in Southern I can fairly conclude that these parties are popular in these provinces because these results are not based on one single result, an outlier. The MMD failed even to win the Vubwi seat. next door. How do you then conclude that the MMD is the second most popular party in the just ended elections based mostly on one single result?
@ katongo nsambe,
That’s right man,I conquer with you,mmd has a well meaning
Full structure as compared to all these one man show parties
Where only 1 man has a final say. We are waiting patiently as we the day approaching. Viva man of God & let God make your enemies your footstool.
Excellent Statistician. Period. Okay so you worked out you can place a President in Gov’t without winning majority constituencies. We had voter apathy theory of why MMD is second. But what is MMD and what do you stand for. You have tepid leadership. A good president should have charisma! The only time Dr Mumba is charismatic is in church!! President Sata, love him or hate him is real personality!
Despite being the biggest loser, four seats in all, MMD is now claiming second place! That is divine humor at its best. This pastor is now beginning to perform miracles in MMD!
Sorry but I cannot get past the exposed leg, lol!
Fight it out for second place between yourselves, Sata is taking 2016
‘JOHN” and “MEI MUTUNGU” the assertion that Southerners vote along tribal is generally correct but it was broken just in one amazing instant.
The highest vote for Nevers Mumba to ascend to the presidency of MMD came from Southern Province, not from Northern or Muchinga (where he comes from) nor the Copperbelt. God can use even the unthinkable.