An economist says the depreciation of the Kwacha is being fueled by speculators who expect the demand for the dollar to increase due to global financial crisis.
Chibamba Kanyama says there is a perception that they will be a shortage of the dollar on the market as the global economy is undergoing stress.
Mr. Kanyama told ZNBC news that some speculators are buying off the dollar in anticipation that the kwacha will depreciate further as dollar inflows reduce in view of the global financial crisis.
He said speculators also anticipate that donors will not commit their funding as the year nears to a close.
Mr. Kanyama said other factors causing the depreciation include reduced export earnings from copper and non-traditional exports.
Mr Kanyama said the government can help curb speculation by constantly communicating to the public about investment inflows.
Shortly after the elections the Kwacha made a dramatic appreciation of about 20 percent but only to depreciate two weeks later by almost the same margin.
[ZNBC]
NUMBER ONE
number 2
number 3
Chi ka budula kwata amano..comment sensibly not this rubbish.
Mr “Know it all”
What flag #4
#7
number six
sorry meant No. 8 now No. 9
Does Chibamba have time to do his work at ZB or he is spokesman for Ministry of Speculators. Why dont we ask managers of Forex busnesses and Bank of Zed to comment factually?
Why are people so obessed with being number 1 to comment on a story? I dont get it
#12 as well
Sometimes ewe need to get to the source where he gets this his info and not from him coz he is ZB coorperate something and let him talk beer availability economics coz the supply of this national drink is pathetic right now.
# 13 nize
Let ZB sponsor the number one to comment. First – Prize BUZZZZZZZZZZZ
There was no finamce minister in place. lets see what one Situmbeko we’ll do
Ni zee. It will appreciate again. Don’t worry
None of the above guys understand economics, so the only thing they can do is what they have written down. You now can see why everyone is talking trickle down. An orchard farmer will be celebrating about his oranges which have almost reached stage of bearing fruit and his children begin to think, “Dad has run mad. He is celebrating about the oranges when all we can see are trees; where is the trickle down?” The problem is not with the farmer, but his children’s lack of knowledge.
Lelo RB,….. use your economics tumone.
Ba Chibamba, can you also explain why the Dollar is gaining against the Pound and Euro? Mwilatubepa ubufi….
Chibamba, you are being very economical with the truth. I don’t think the rate of the foreign investment will curb the down ward spiral of the kwacha. First and foremost, as a country we need to have a surplus in our trade equation. This an important economic fundamental then secondly and equally important is that the economy should be nearing full employment in terms of all its resources to get us out of this inflationary period. When the fundamentals of the economy are good then you will have a strong currency which is free of manipulation.
However, i do agree that when you have huge FDI it means investor are confident in your business environment and this plugs capital flight.
You chaps Chibamba belongs to the Economic Association of Zambia. The guy does financial consultancy and was until a week ago the secretary General of the EAZ. I think he has a right to comment. I bet you cant make more headlines than the silly comments you make hear.
Sometimes we have to understand that some people have nothing better to do with their lives and have failed in everything, so commeting first on a story is an achievement even if that comment is useless.
The comments from Chibamba sound plausible. The only thing is that one hopes the powers that be have taken note of this perspective even if they might have their on take on the subject.
Am not an Economist so wnt comment! i will just keep my kwacha
He’s hit the nail on the head, the rate is being manipulated by speculators, nothing to do with “good policies”. They have been doing this since about 2005. Want to know how it works?
Here is one reason why the Dollar and to some extent, the Yen have gained strength…..no one trusts the stock market anymore therefore most are selling off their shares and investing in the federal reserve of the US for assured returns therefore creating a shortage of the green buck globally. The japanese are also doing the same with their Yen, so you are having more Pound, Euro and the rest trying to purchase the Dollar which is on high demand…..eat that Chibamba Kanama!!
Fact is there is not enough forex on the market. That being the case, finacial houses need to increase the buying rate so as to get in as much dollars in the reserves. I think most people we’ll sell their dollars and that should help a bit. otherwise the bulk of the dollar comes through FDI… if copper prices stay low then this may linger on
#20. Uwakwisano
He has already explained. The anxiety is not about the pound or the rand but about the dollar. So what other explanation do you want?
Or where are you facing difficulties?
we also need political stability in zed it doesnt look to good when you are reading about zambia on places like reuters.
Bad publicty affects our tourism which helps bring in some forex… thats why these rioting chaps need to behave. Peace benefits the econmy in many ways…
People, there is no hoarding of the dollar here, the green buck is just in short supply at a GLOBAL SCALE….people would rather have it in bonds which are gauranteed than in a bank that is shedding 75,000 jobs within a year, or a company that has lost 70% of its share value…remember that we are in GLOBAL VILLAGE and America is like the chief’s palace..
#28, You have to look at it from a global perspective for you to understand. No one transacts in pound or euro globally so if you are to buy bonds in the US reserve, which majority of american investors are doing, you need dollars. If demand goes up, value of the currency goes up…everywhere including Zambia!!
#31
Its possible that the Americans are holding their dollar..
But its supposed to be straight forward isnt it? if Americans are spending less in projects, donor funding and big investors moving money to more secure saving mechanism like govt bonds then the dollar we’ll fetch higher in zed. But who knows the performance of the dollar outside Zambia???
To prove my point, America’s internal debt crossed $10 trillion last month.Meaning more and more people are withdrawing cash from the so-called active markets of savings and stock investments to a risk free passive investment of bonds….
Does Chibanda suffer from a ZNBC hangover?? In recession central banks offload currency to curb economic crises and sustain government / public sector operations. Consequently the currency values weakens which is the case for the US$ & GB£. So what he talking about? Gloab speculators are not investing dollar or pound at this time as evidence by the crises on the stock markets. Chibanda should know better assuming he is welconected, as to what is behind the depreciation of the kwacha. The Magande factor, plus season variations are the key issues are at play!
Chibamba Mr. know it all please concentrate on what you know best or we will classify you as Jack of all Trades yet Master of non
number 1…grow up son. I m sure who ever sent you to Canada expects a 100% return on thier investment they made in sending you across the shores.
Back to the point of the Kwacha depreciating its all logic.Demand for the dollar has increased due to the fact that investers with the dollar are holding onto the dollar or being risk averse by not investing on the european market.Obamas election as president has given wallstreet a catalyst to get things moving after its recent down turn.
# 34
arent you confusing facts a little. If central banks ofload currency doesnt that result in a weakening dollar. in which case the local currecy should be stronger and stable, but the govt in this case zambia has no forex to oflaod because it is scarcy everywhere… the result is that it we’ll fetch more money. Dollar is getting stronger in this case even though the american economy is folding
#31, exactly my point. At the beginning of the year 1 Pound was equal to $2 and 1 Euro was equal to $1.8. Now, 1 pound is equal to about $1.5 and 1 Euro is about $1.25. An appreciation of about 35%.
In the same vein, $1 was equal to K3,200 at its peak. Now $1 is equal to K4,500 a depreciation of about 40%. So the global trends are more or less the same..
its just simple supply and demand and i think thats what chibamba is talking about here.!!!!period
Imwe, mwilatubepa no tu ma simple dollar economics! The dollar has simply become a rare commodity as its “source” has almost dried up – there is no more easy & silly money going around, the USA is having to borrow to save its own banks & industries, people are cutting down on spending (keeping the little they have in pockets) speculators have gone to ground if they have yet lost their jobs in Hedgefunds & elsewhere- in short & simple – there is higher demand for the dollar worldwide, simply, Demand & Supply economics!!!
Chibamba is a man who can help the very many people to appreciate how the economy is behaving at any moment of time. He understands the economy very well,& that is why some of us who are just watching can learn about the current situation. what Kanyama has explained are none but full facts about what is happening now, even Japan is receeding… believe it or leave it.
its amazing how sata or HH havent come into the picture this far. great bloggers!!!
Nothing like he knows it all, Did he call ZNBC to his office or they followed him? If they followed him, it means they know he’s capability to explain the current norm of kwacha/dolla issue. He knows it & he will continue to be. chibamba U inspire me.
#43
I think we should be proud of pipo like Chibamba who have transformed themselves from ordinary journalists to very influential people in the Zambian economy. Much respect to Chibamba Kanyama!
Am out of here!
#42 HEAR HEAR HEAR …… AM AMAZED TOO – CONTINUE TO KEEP IT RELEVANT. VIVA FREE SPEECH (NOT INSULTS)
LT, why do u have the habbit of filtering sensible stuff or is your system that cn’t handle high volume of traffic? Upgrade if you can.
So what should we do, hold on to the dollar or hold on to our kwacha? Which one is safe please. I hope our kwacha will not be like the Zim dollar.
Planet Mars, it’s time you headed back to planet earth,You are still holding onto the Zim dollar??? mama mama try to hitch a ride next time NASA send a probe, you may do yourself some good trying to hijack it, then switch off its transponder, they will think they have lost touch with it, then head for “Cape Samfya”, very good landing ground!!
#48 only the speculators know what they’ll do next so can’t tell you that sorry
#48 if it was me I would hold the dollar for now and make friends with some indian shopkeepers, they usually have some idea of how to play this game
no racism intended it’s just a fact
TONGUE – IN – CHEECK;
THERE WILL BE AUDITIONS FOR MISS LT (INAUGURAL) AND THE FOLLOWING ARE INVITED;BABY C, LADY F, PRINCESS LONDON, BIG MAMA RSA …..
JUDGES: YOURS TRULY(GAZZY BO), FINE, RAS RATED,ANONYMOUS, SONY ERICSSON AND ANYONE INTERESTED.
CHARGES: GOOD BEHAVIOUR
Chibamba.We have heard this again and again.Zambia is becaming poorer and poorer every day.when the zambian gvt has money and good times,it concentrates on irrelevant issue.spending millions of dollars on constitution making process as a way of enriching the MP and ministers when there has never been a constitution in zambia because the head of state like RB,KK and LPM are the constitutiions. Do really advise these people?
Someone tell Chibamba I am going to buy all the Dollars in Zed! If s)t)u)p)i)d things like this will weaken the Kwacha then God help us. What an Economist!
#22 dont you know that relevant departments (BOZ,MIN OF FINANCE,…are suppose to comment before he opens his small kanwa.They have spokesmen there but they know the truth and keep quiet,maybe they are ghosts.Ifyo mufawila tu ma economists.When we need proper info you are always in oblivion.
well lets hope they are wrong about the whole thing
#37 I guess you understand the facts & basics of forex /economics! Yes the American economy is folding but the $ has an artificial strengh due to high un employment; consumer spend being more careful and the casualities in the short term are menchant banks who have ties with china , india and let alone Zambia. The US & UK are underwriting major institutions such as banks as an interim option; the Uk is also considering tax cuts as opposed to minting; BoE is also seriously considering droping interest rates to Zero just to hold-on. But in the longer term, they wont introduce coupon to pay for the services and the machines will have to grind for sure! In the Zambia case, its always a fragile market and highly manipulated by one two persons. The system has not changed much from the days i used to be there 9forex business), I guess!
From some comments above,i read that Chibamba is now with ZB,is it true,i thought he was with ZISC.There is a tendency by corporations in Zambia to poach whoever they think is vocal to be the company’s spokerperson/Corporate Affairs Manager.I hear this Chibamba is all over the place on tv,print media.The other chap is Augustine Seyuba,we knew him at ZB,then i read he was at Barclays,now i hear he is with the mines,is it KCM,why can’t they keep their jobs,in the UK when you hop about too much,your CV is basically dented & you will find it hard to get a job so from the Zed situe,it means there is a shortage of chaps like Seyuba,Chibamba not so?
Chibuka is confusing you now all the points are wrong. Go back to school
##55, Currency dynamics are very much like any other commodity. You you buy all the dollars as you purport, there will be a shortage of dollars in the country compared to the high demand for dollars. You will recall from your Civics that a high demand for a commodity (in this case dollar currency) interprets into high price (exchange rate) for that commodity if its supply is low relative to its demand.
Chibamba has been to school to study what he’s now talking about and he’s is making sense to all who wish to see it.
#59, Chibamba, Seyuba and others have built their cv’s through hard work and going to school to study what they are now practicing in the corporate world.
Chibamba is “not all over”, he is merely being useful, giving back to the country that trained him at high cost!
There may just be a shortage of “chaps” because you are in UK, but when (or if) you return to Zambia, it will be good to see ” Afrofusion” providing better economic analysis than Chibamba and being sought after by corporations.
those chaps who ruch to comment #1 am #2 actually used to come out last in class during their school days,they think will make it up on LT. ignorance play a big role in their small brains.lets get to serious issues concerning the topics chaps. God bless Zambia
#42. your flag Change u can Believe, you wrote “its amazing how sata or HH havent come into the picture this far. great bloggers!!!”
According to intelligence reports that have reached my command post, president Hakainde Hichilema is taking recess at one of his about 22 farm in Pemba, Southern Province, after the long marathon race to plot one he participated in.
He will come out of his leave shortly to focus on feeding us Zambians without food whom our GRZ has failed to attend to in village even after voting for the MMD GRZ in the last Presidential election.
Chibamba Kanyama, did the Undereducate’s participation in the just ended election have any significant impact on the depreciation of the Kwacha?
thats why i keep my money in both dollar and rubbles wen one goes down i switch to the other one period!!! European sense!!
#62. VJ
Listen,u got the wrong end of the stick.My question was based on the fact that Chibamba is with ZB coz it’s only a while ago that i saw an article in the Times of Zambia where he was talking about the economy & i noted he was then at ZISC.The same goes for Seyuba,i did not know he had moved to KCM coz i assumed he was still with BBZ after leaving ZB.When i say ”all over the show” i mean they are quoted alot.I am no economist,i have my own qualifications & profession of interest that is why i didn’t mention anything regarding the economy though i understand economics well,i was only interested in confirming that the people i mentioned had changed jobs again.
ba #63 mwalifulwa! ninshi? we are all having a rough time take it easy. thats just a joke about # 1 and so on. whats wrong with starting the debate on a light moment? if you have observed those numbers usually end at number one sometimes two and rarely at 3!
#67 its the other way round for seyuba. he left ZB then went to KCM and now he is with BBZ we dont know where next.
Fellow bloggers. Before we can continue debating this issue, lets first exarmine the source of the statement. Chibamba Kanyama is not an authority in this subject matter. He is just a mascarading know it all pretender. Chibamba is not an Economist. He studied Mass Communication at Unza and just did a minor in Economics. That does not make him an economist. He is a fraud star who must be arrested. Don`t you all wonder as to why he is only employed for PR jobs and not the mainstream business? He was a TV presenter at ZNBC and then PR at ZSIC and now you are telling me he is doing PR for ZB? This is the guy who at one time wanted to pretend to be a marketr and even stood for elections at ZIM.
#67 / #59 “There is a tendency by corporations in Zambia to poach whoever they think is vocal to be the company’s spokerperson/Corporate Affairs Manager”.
This is perhaps the wrong end of stick I caught. I mistakenly thought that you are implying that Chibamba, Seyuba et al are popular in the corporate world on account of their “loudness”.
Since you clarified your point, I apologise unreservedly.
CHE research further Chibamba did economics somewhere abroad after UNZA. i just cant remember the country and year. but i know he did. if in doubt ask him. Thats why he is EAZ secretary you dont get into EAZ from being a TV presenter.
#71. VJ
Apology accepted though not necessary coz maybe i could have said too much & caused the mix up in meaning,on the other hand,i am glad we still have sensible people like you,others would have called me names for the clarification i made.
#70 CHE, you are correct that Chibamba did Mass Comm with a minor in economics. He is also a holder of a Master’s degree perharps in Financial Economics or some similar field.
He may not be an authority in economics, but to suggest that Chibamba is “a mascarading know it all pretender” is too insulting.
We must learn to respect success especially when it’s earned.
Thanks #72.
#70. CHE
I have just seen chibamba’s personal profile,here is an excerpt.
Chibamba Kanyama was born on 26th January, 1965 in Chikankata, Mazabuka, Zambia. He is a graduate of Mass Communications and Economics from the University of Zambia. He also holds an MSc in Development Finance obtained from the University of Reading, UK. His area of specialisation is investment advisory.
Read his full profile here
chibambakanyama.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=18&Itemid=35
There are fellows on this blog with a PhD(Pull Him Down) syndrome.
What is wrong with being succesful in Zambia.
Chibamba once a newspaper article expressing the notion that many of us Zedians hold that there must be a “deal” behind every success!
It’s high time we believed that there is success from school and also from hard work or both.
Thanks Number 74, you are a true Zambian. I respect you for your sobber analysis of issues. Blogging is not about insulting each other. But it is good to correct one another. Keep it up brother.
But it is true, in Zambia the level of analysts that we have is very disturbing. We need the bank governor to tell us something. Even if he does not understand things, he may ask others and at least issue a statement. Chibamba is not a proper analyst in this area, buthe really tries!!!.
The bigest problem in poor countries like Zambia, we dont have proper leadership to mobilise people who are competent. It is all about stealling and having more enemies and in the end no one gets anywhere.
Just check at what is happening right now?? No plan for anything. Just running like pa maliketi. No strategy. Kulibonesha fye. You people why cant youwork together. Check what Obama is doing? Here at home it is like to think properly and do something constructive is not within reach to some people!!1
There is no one who hates his country. So whether you win or loose. You are educated or not, Let us work together, otherwise that country will always be poor and really not good to live in!!!.
??????? ???? ????!!
It is good for mining houses it will compasate the fall in cooper prices. Mines will get more kwacha when the rate is high. Some one is playing with calculator like HH.
We have seen this before. Just a few months before 2006 election, the Kwacha appreciated at a rate never seen before. Again just before another election cycle the Kwacha appreciates then goes nose diving afterwards; that to me is kind of creecky.
I can’t find any economic activity which might have led to the appreciation of the Kwacha other than government ofloading dollars on the market. Once the market is saturated the dollar goes down and kwach appreciated that is why it can’t even hold. On the other hand it pushes dealers to buy as much dollar as they possibly could and hold on until the kwacha depreciates thereby giving them significant gains.
#70, I appreciate your feed back. However, those qualifications do not make him an Economist. I`ve a BA degree, an MBA and an MSc in Finance. That does not make me an economist though in my case I`m involved in mainstream business. Dr Musokotwane is an Economist.
Che the point is we cant trivialize Chibamba’s qualification to a mere presenter and masquerader. Maybe the title given to him by the reporter is wrong but i think his qualifications give him authority to comment on the topic at hand.
There are so many highly educated people in Zambia but i think it’s the work culture itself that makes people confine their knowledge & skills to the place of work & i believe this is the reason we see the Chibamba’s alot in the media,they are probably outgoing,enthusiastic & articulate.
#85 CHE I don’t think Chibamba would have held the position at EAZ had he not been an Economist,i think he is an economist looking at his qualifications so he is qualified to make an opinion on the economy however i feel we need more people from Banks to do alot of talking,that’s where enthusiasm comes in,people prefer to share ideas in clubs.The govt too should take an initiative & be more open.
# 70 Che
Chibabamba was sponsored by Raja Matani Finance Bank / PICZ chairman to the UK to do his master in Economics. He is not macarading!!
Bloggers, do a bit of research before you outpour insults on people
All of you are telling me different qualifications about the man. Which one is which? One thing I`m definately sure of is that he did not study Economics at UNZA becouse we were there at the same time. maybe we need to define what an economist is? by the way, I have no problem with his contribution and analysis though most of us have disagreed with him. All I want is for him to be addressed by the correct title. By the way, check how many members ECZ has who not Economists. Check even the Zambia institute of marketing has alot of non markers as members including Chibamba himself.
# 87. I got a BA Engineering, MBA, LLB & PhD. Am i competent to comment on fluid dynamics? Any way you got a point.
#90. your flag Ati Timbwi, is it ‘BA Engineering’ or BSc Engineering or BEng?
CHE,i an earlier comment i provided a link to Chibamba’s personal website,he has a full profile there,you can even see his family.Copy & paste the link into google or another browser & you should get to his website or just google his name.
BSc. Ndakatala musa. Ati buti ooko? Good observation I intended to include my other degree.
# 91. Did u note? Then say something. Besides am a Jesuit.
Ati TIMBWI
Am sorry there is no BA Engineering, which university?
Is this the same Chibamba Kanyama that suggested putting the mines on care and maintainance when the copper price was really depressed.The same the chap that insunuated that copper was for all intents and purposes obsolete.Why no one calls him on the rubbish he’s said on the past only the good lord himself knows.
This is the problem we have in Zambia.A bunch of basically incompetent people(with loud mouths)finding themselves in positions of influence.
The kwacha is depreciating for one reason and thats coz the copper boom is over.Any “expert”who says anything to the contrary is a QUACK!
#93,94. Ati Timbwi, I have taken note.
Otherwise, ndili kabotu pele buyo cikoolo cayuma. Pesi, ndiliujisi nkaambo cisi tacheeledde tola ansi.
Kamupona kabotu oko basa. Aakale.
People Rumour has it in Kitwe that our indo investors are planning in closing a smelter at KCM kitwe Wusakile.We are about start getting screwed big time and one just hopes RB and Co. are on the ball….Dont hold your breathe though.remember where you heard it first pipo!
Back to Mr kanyama.The british pound has depreciated against the dollar as have pretty much all world currences against the dollar.Do you hear anyone out there blaming speculators.People are worried and for goiod reason.Things aint good.Brace yourselves for a couple of rough months.
Pray hard coz the clowns(thats every party in parliament)in lusaka may not be up to the job.
Eh eh eh….Ok, i must admit, i am not a regular contributer but this is one of my favorite blogs, coz it cheers me up and makes me cackle after a hard days work. I look forward to LT every evening. Inspite of fyonse ifya bupuba, insele, and comedy that is so characteristic of this blog I enjoy Pleas LT bloggers dont change, u make my day. of course i acknowledge all the sensible and logical contributions that are sometimes quite informative i must say. cheers to all LT bloggers.The Artful Dodger!
# 97. Koyumayuma musa. I enjoyed reading various contributions. Anyone from Hawaii? I would enjoy a visit[Diocese of Honolulu] – link 4 two PhD scholarship at Portland University. Interested bloggers create access email and i shall note.
#92 anyone can create their site and claim all sorts of things. It does not mean that if he has a site then everything is true. Stop being naive. Next time Sata will claim to have a Phd and put it on his website and are you going to believe? RB claimed to have a degree in Economics, did we counter check if it is true? what type of economics did he study? Are you going to belieeve people who claim to have a BA in Engineering just becouse its on the net? I have nothing agaist Chibamba. In any case I`m more accomplished than him. All I want is truethfulness. If its a misteke being made everyday by the press, let him come out in the open and correct them
# 95 note # 93 & # 94. Good observation. Thanx
The problem is not chibamba’s qualifications but the point is that there are people who are more qualified,competent and paid for the job Chibamba is putting himself into.Give him credit if those guys are sleeping.Lastly i thought Egineering was in sciences not arts.BSc not BA.Maybe some courses but the main component is science.Things change!
CK is competent to comment on exchange rate volatility. However, the statutory obligation to do so is vested in the office of the BOZ. Thats why major investors are not influenced by his analysis. In such case big investors seek clarification on such from central bank who normally hold an oblique view owing to political implications.
The problem with you guys is that you criticise what you dont know.Kanyama is quilified economists able to analyse issues in a profensional manner.The only way we can improve is direct foreign investment or we export more.At the moment we are exporting copper but the prices are not good.But the kwacha will appreciate very soon if the government put measures to stop high cost food which is beyond Zambia since there a economic reccesion in the whole world.
chibamaba lying again!!
I told you that one day Caristo Chitamfya will be also an economic advisor. Ba Chibamba Kanena was covering sports, today he is economic advisor, Zambia twasebana!! Where are our Ministers Musokotwane, Kapwepwe and Mutati we can believe in!!?
My problem is no CK qualifications but rather his defensive approach towards the MMD government.Infact everyone is free to comment on the national issues as long as they can put up something for the people to understand.
The financial crisis has affected the emerging and developed countries economies more than underdeveloped countries like Zambia.Fundanga should demonstrate why he boasts of having more than 1 billion in reserves by stabilising the Kwacha.The volatility of the exchange rate has resulted into our country being ranked as one the worst investment destination because of high risk premium.
Imwe bantu musiyeni Chibamba! eh! Che point well noted he should tell the reporters to maybe call him a financial analyst or expert ? but i think he is competent for the topic at hand. I have heard people say the only competent authority is BOZ ? i dont agree entirely because as Zambians we must debate thats what happens in most of the major economies they dont leave it to Government to comment . people in Government went to the same schools as us so we could even have better ideas. The more people debate the more policy makers listen and explore. So dont shut Chibamba up.
It fooolish to attribute value loss of the kwacha to speculators. Speculators have always played an important role in determing the demand and supply of the local and foreign currency in any economy.Its not the first time speculators are participating in the international exchange market.The government has got all the powers,necessary tools and appratus to be applied to reverse the trend.In fact our speculators are very small compared to other big economies ,they have lot to influence the national currency . They can be manipulated .
It is a great pity that some bloggers here have decided to be ignorant and choose not to even investigate ofwho Chibamba Kanyama really is. Even after 76 has pointed everyone in the right direction, you choose to be ignorant and display the typical Zambian PHD syndrome. Chibamba is an economist and a practicing one for that. As for the article on why the kwacha is depreciating, he is right but also other added factors that has been discussed by other bloggers such as full employment, political stability, confidence of the global market etc plays their part. Finally, the sterling depreciated against the $ at a faster rate due to speculators ie the forex traders. Get your facts right
Kangalaitoito
What CK is giving us is the problem that has been there for some time,whenever the currecy depreciates speculators are involved.HHe sjould be explaining why the goveernment fails to apply the necessary instruments to stabilise the currency.
SO what is the way forward for our nation, what needs to be done to pull Zambia out of this mess, how can our economy develop in the face of lower forex coming in from copper mining? Let us have some possible solutions.
#112 Fresh Fisi, Are you sure you understand the term “speculating” and what you want to declare “speculators”, I advise you to avoid to discuss things people will not understand. Even that Bemba Chibamba Kaanimal need to terms to layman language. Zambians are not IMF or world bank employees. Ni kulibwenesha?
Nalikwebele
I understand the term very well being an economist
You should also take some time to study basic economics and other social sciences as it will help you understand the world better. Dont eat and sleep ,you can do better than that.
Chibamba Kanyama is not an economist. He has never worked has one and has no credentials as one. Can anyone please show me any significant paper’s or thesis on the Zambian economy that he has written ? As for the forex market once again Chibamaba can not speak with any authority. if ignatius chica at citibank had made these comments I would pay attention. But from Chibamba i can safely say he is making an educated guess. Dr. fundanga or Dr. musokotwane or even Aka are economist Chibamba is more an enthusiastic amateur. How many papers on economics has CK published ? Please respect real economists even HH is more of an economist than Chibamba.
111. What economics has Chibamba practised ? As far as Iknow he is a PR flack. EAZ is a society for anyone with an interest in economics. A club no more no less. Which job did Chibamba hold that involved economic analysis ? As for something as specialised as foreign Exchange, Chibamba is not qualified to be called an authority on the subject. His statement is the analysis that anyone who works in a managemnt in Zambia can deduce to be the reason for the kwacha movements. However the only people with real info on the subject the foreign currency dealers at the banks, the BOZ analysts, bureau de change owners and the foreign exchange earners know the real state of the market.
Even Elias Mpondela has posed from time to time as an economist. These guys just seem to have an orgasm when they see a TV camera.
Imwe bantu!
What does Chibamba Kanyama know apart from just speculatingon issues.Mind you he was MMD cadre and he still has that cadre hangover
Chibamba Qualifications
1. 2000 – 2001 University of Reading (Chavening Scholar) – M.Sc Development Finance
Course Included:
* # Corporate Finance,chibamba
* # Financial Markets
* # Corporate Governance
* # Financial markets
* # Financial Regulation
* # Development Finance
* # Data in Development(with distinction)
* # Political Economy for Development
* # Investment Banking
* # Dissertation (Graded with Distinction)
* # Foreign Direct Investment in the Southern African Development Community
* # Risks and Opportunities.
#116, Porgy, i thought Chibamba has a minor in ECONOMICS and a major in Mass Communications. I know he worked for ZNBC for which many people know him and still think he is just a journalist. He now works for Zambia State Insurance Corporation (ZSIC)which implies he knows what he is talking about
The flactuation of any particular currency should not be measured against the dollar alone. A true picture of the relative strength of a currency is only painted when one measures it against an index of currencies. Mr kanyama has come up with an arguement has little to do with the kwacha’s depreciation. Instead, his analysis explains the dollar’s appreciation against other currencies.
Let’s look at the relative strength of, say, the kwacha, dollar and pound over the last two months.
Con’td from #123.
19 September 2008 19 November 2008 %change
1USD = 3,598.33ZMK 1USD = 4,050.50ZMK 12.57
1GBP = 1.8297USD 1GBP = 1.5042USD 17.78
From the analysis above we see that, over two months, the kwacha has depreciated by 12.57% against the dollar while the pound has depreciated by 17.78%.
It is, therefore, erroneuos to assume that the strength of the kwacha in relation to dollar explains the kwacha’s percieved deptreciation.
I think that most of you guys want to more factual than analytical.
I wish to submit to you that a person with a mere first degree in economics/business admin who works in the field of financial markets is better knowledgeable than a guy with PhD in economics who is MD for an Airline Corporation. In the same way any person who has taken keen interest in singing turns out to be better than a guy who did music from college but is simply eployed in the music industry is is producing music on behalf of singers and musicians. Also I must say that any person with interest and current exposure in any particular area turns out to be more useful than an academic in the same area. Chibamba is knows.
Chibamba Kanyama is an authority on economic matters of this country and ofcourse at International level. the problem with most of you people is that like making comments on issues you have no knowledge. Let Kanyama as an expert educate you, if there are other experts in Kanyamas’ field who disagree with him let them say so and give their reasons for disagreeing with him. Some of the people making silly comments can’t define economics let alone understand depreciation.
Viva Chibamba Kanyama.
Kwena this one is Mr Know it all . . .
HOW ABOUT AUCTIONING THE KWACHA? AFTERALL WE HAVE GONE BACK TO THE KAUNDA DAYS
Chibamba Knnyama. Economics yamu Federal.
#123 Rogue Trader
It is interesting to note that other regional currencies such as the Rand and Pula are experiencing almost relative trends and as such the has not been any real change in the parity of exchange of these regional currencies against the Kwacha.
#125 and 126. I agree with you on what people say about Mr Kanyama. In the developed financial markets, some of the smartest people such as quantitative analysts never studied economics and finance. Instead, they tend to have Phds in mathematics and physics. Some of the best traders and analysts studied subjects such as history, art or computer science. I disagree with some of the points raised in his analysis but I find it shallow for people to question his knowledge. His achievements are open to public scrutiny while our faces remain covered by the veil of anonymity.
You still need the same amout of Kwacha to transact in goods across the border as before. Relative movement of prices of goods and currency value is occuring without any overall negative effect. However, our export earnings from our copper is affected and hopefully to be countered by increased exports with the opening up of lumwana.
Chibamba has always something to say about anything. Can He explain the shortage of bottled Coke? He can’t run even a small Kantemba. When we heard the news about international Economic crisis, the same analysts said Africa and Zambia in Particular will not be affected. They forgot about the rimple effect. Ba Chibamba tell us about the falling copper prices.
#130
The question you have raised deserves attention as we tend to have economic relations with most countries in our region. This would give us more useful information about our situation.
On the other hand, the appreciation of the dollar against other currencies (ours included) is really out of our control.
Without delving into qualifications and capabillities, I have also noticed that our money changers (black market) are very upto date with the market trends, perhaps the severity under which they work to merely survive have sharpened their instints unlike part timers who have nothing lose even with a less than perfect analysis of events. If your survival depends on reading the market trends, you wont need an education qualification to tell you that you might starve if you dont make the right speculation. In this kind of situation, specultion is a matter of life and death and not mere academic debate.
#132
Falling revenues from the export of copper are partly mitigated by falling oil prices. While the value of the dollar and the price of oil (and other commodities) do not necessarily have an inverse relationship, it has been noted that the value of the dollar increases as oil (and other commodity) prices reduce and vice versa.
Number 134!!! How does it feel to load a website and then say number 1 and leave! Good God; for those who do not like him, Chibamba is an econimist and like every economist inluding the guys you watch on CNN, BBC and CNBC including Bloomeberg, he can analyse econimics possibly sometimes even better than those chaps on bllomberg, for him I give respect, and it is time we started listening to our own people and trust their judgement, when the kwacha began rising in 2006, the Ministry of Finance could not explain what was happening and it was EAZ again that came to outr aid, so let is give credit where it is due ladies and gentlemen.
#135
I couldn’t agree more. when it comes to pricing, the level of sofistication of “Katondo Street” is mind numbing!
#137
Its all part of the “Pull Him Down” syndrome. When we look at someone doing well we are very quick to judge. I’ve listened to Mr Kanyama’s analysis since 5th grade (literally!). Just like any expert, his analysis may sometimes be flawed but that such is the nature of the financial markets. Personally, i commend him for the contribution he makes to our markets.
The World is in a recession propagated by irresponsible wall street, they do not learn and commodity prices world wide are falling so that is why Copper prices are falling too, that is a simplistic view of looking at it.
Zambia’s heavy dependence on the copper industry has a double sword effect on our balance. The stronger the kwacha, the greater our dollar earnings. But the same scenario means that if our kwacha is strong, our other export earnings outside metals are affected negatively. The stronger the stronger our Kwacha is , the more expensive our non traditional exports are. I have always argued for a less strong kwacha to encourage the growth of non traditional exports. The parity of kwacha against major traing partners is crucial for our economic growth.
#38/139, imagine, we are all attentive to Havard graduates on CNN and BBC and do not listen to tested economists like Chibamba and like you said economics is not an exact science, even exact sciences like phyisics will tell you plus or minus 1% error, so who is Chibamba to give a prognosis of human behaviour. This guy is good for what he does, if people like Prof Saasa, Prof Seshamani can include him as one of the best economists who are we to dispute that. Joseph Stiglitz (Prof and Author) was the author of these funny financial instruments on wall street and look where they have ended, but does that take away the fact that he is good, NO!
A very strong kwacha on the other hand means complete dependence on imports. It becomes easier and cheaper to buy goods from outside. The best way of diversifying the economy is by encouraging non traditional exports and this cant be achieved if these exports are way too expensive for export and our competitors are having cheaper and affordable alternatives. Example, Botswana has readily available market for maize. They entirely depend on importing almost 100% of thier requirements. But they wont buy from Zambia, because it is 50% cheaper to buy from S.A or ZIMBABWE for that matter. S.A has not enough maize to export BTW. Ours is a wasted opportunity!
#141, i have a report of trade in zambia since 1991 up to 2007. While it is true that we depend on copper, that dependency is slowly shifting to non traditional exports and where as 90% exports 15 years ago were copper this time around copper is 56% which is still high. But the questions is what are these NTEs and that is where we should pay attention to, if the NTEs bulk of them are still copper derivatives like Cobalt, then we still have a problem. If it is roses, sugar (which by the way has reduced) and other things which are non exhaustive then we can talk business. There are companies I know that closed as a result of a flactuating kwacha and that has to be dealt with now.
#144
I really like your stuff! That’s the direction we need to take if our economy is to rise from the ashes.
Bloggers remember very well during elections Chibamba, was telling us that the so called fly by night investors who were not comfortable with SATA becoming the president had withdrawal the dollars hence the exchange rate taking a dive , today we have BANDA as the president but the kwacha is still losing why can’t chibamba take time and understand whats happening on the international financial , the dollar is gaining against all the currencies read this from #26 this is the real reason for kwacha doing badly. Here is one reason why the Dollar and to some extent, the Yen have gained strength…..no one trusts the stock market anymore therefore most are selling off their shares and investing i
Infact, it is cheaper for Botswana to import maize from America than from Zambia.
The equation we have is: How do we maximise our earnings from our Metal exports but also encourage diversification into non traditional exports. How do we keep our mining industries vibrant whilst encouraging SME’s. Without the growth of SME’s, no meaningful economic growth is achievable. The kwacha needs to lose more ground. The problem with Zambians is that they want to still afford to buy that japanese vehicles at an affordable price now not later.
We need to have a government that is awake not one led by men that are half asleep, when you see an opportunity such as the one you talked about Botswana, you lift the damn ban on maize exports, what is the point of keeping maize that you might not even consume and will just be destroyed by moisture? The capacity of zambia to produce maize at the moment, with the right economic fundamentals is 3 million metric tonnes, our consumption is 1.1 million, this is what people are sitting on in Ministry of Agriculture. The production of rice is unbelievable, Mongu rice has an aroma kuti walya yeka yeka but we have not marketed it the way that sorry type of rice Tastic is marketed. World…
… contd 148, shortage of cereal was over a million metric tons when Thailand closed their borders. This is something we could easily do. The problem with us is that we start from a premise of how something cannot be done and not the other way round! I submit to the august blog!
whether the kwacha gets stronger against the dollar or not, what difference will it have on a common man like me?
If the kwacha weakens long enough without having serious resultant balance of payment problems, our local manufacturers and farmers will have enough motivation to out do their current levels of production. A very strong Kwacha is a detterant to production AND a restriction to market penetration. A small farmer with a strong Kwacha can only sell within at break-even whilst with a weak kwacha, he would and can afford to penetrate export market. Accessbillity to market and costs associated must be confronted directly buy policy formulation, infrasture development, etc.
#150
The participation of the SME’s( small to medium sized entrepreneurs) is/ must be the crucial target for GRZ. SME’s includes the peasant farmer, the guy on the street running a kantemba and the tamanga’s. If these guys can be targeted in such a way that they see the relevance and advantage of formalising thier businesses, then the country will be on the right move. With motre formalised businesses, more guaranteed tax revenue, without having to put a tax man at the border! This in turn will accelerate economic activities and eventually and inevitablely economic growth. As the situation is, the Tax burden is borne by a few formal businesses and a small working class (formal)
#150, the changes are not immediate for anyone, even the 700 billion bail out plan in the US will not have an immediate effect. However, let us take an example that you are importing a car today, if the car costs 2000 US you will pay 9 million kwacha, when it arrives at the border in 8 weeks time ZRA will calculate the buy price on the current USD rate and if the rate is low your tax will be low, that is the direct connection if you want.
The Kwacha is still too strong! The advantages of a strong kwacha are artificial in the sense that whilst a strong kwacha guanrantees immediate(short term) attendance to budgetory requirements, it guanrantees no long term or even medium term benefits. The Guy who is crying for a strong kwacha is one who benefits from his import based businesses and activities. A person who has sent his children abroad may cry for a strong kwacha understandably, but he does not take into cognisance the fact his investment in education in his childs study abroad will ultimately cripple his future benefit in Zambia. There will be no guranteed job for his kid in Zambia, in future.
#146. Blood Diamond 1,
You dont imply that Chibamba said the issues of election threats would remain the only factor on the exchange rates. Chibamba was actually right when he said some business/people feared who would win the election. And this was proven bearly a day after announcing the winner in the elections. However, the financial market is a dynamic one and, thought they can, factors that affect the exchange rates today should not be expected to obviously continue to do so even tomorrow. So it is an error that after a week when you discover that some factor different from the other week’s is affecting the market you say what you were told the other week was false.
#152 cannot agree more with you, and this is what Magande’s target was 2009 all things remaining equal, I just hope that Musokotwane will do the same.
It is however evident from most contributers on this blog that the issue of the kwacha strength is for our immediate concerns. How Iam going to manage buy that japanese car affordabilly or how Iam going to sustain payment for my studies or how the government will meet its balance of payments without falling back. This is what stagnation means. We have been in this stagnation because of this mentallity. Finding the right PARITY of the kwacha is as crucial as it could be. International trade can not be over emphasized.
Fine nice to see you back, it looks like now we have a semblance of a sane blog.
#157, you see that is what we thought this MMD Government would do in the last 17 years, have a sustained high dollar/kwacha rate, but they have failed, indeed a low rate for an import based economy which imports literally everything is good to jump start the economy only if that low dollar rate translates to cheaper goods and services, for me what is the logic is having a rate that is low and then double the fuel prices, you end up with a zero sum game which leads to stagnation. So I understand what the implications are, for me if I have more money in my pocket even just for a year, that makes a difference, let someone else in this case Government look at how that can be sustained.
#158. John Chinena, Liteta,
Nice to see you too. I hope you have a good time.
The consumer goods thrive in a strong currency market. Speculators are well aware of this. Put in a lot of goods in the market with a healty return guanrantees huge profits in the immediate. South African goods are making huge profits from Zambia. I would not be surprised to hear that Shoprite for instance is making more profits in Zambia than elsewhere including Southafrica itself. Reason? The exchange parity between Rand and kwacha is highly to southafrica’s favour. Just imagine what amout of goods you can manage in a thousand rands in S.A. This same R1000 in Zambia is 400Pin and you can hardly fill up a trolley! But taken to S.A this same 400PIN will perform wonders untold!
I am trying my bro, these are touch times, I am told in Zambia even during the best of times, times are tough.
#161, so tell me, who decides what the rate for the USD/Kwacha should be, all this analysis makes a lot of sense, the issue here is parity and that should resolve the major parts of the problem.
no….no the so called Rupiah Banda (nyama soya) should comment about this not u chimba kanyama.Chibamba just explain y there is shortage of beer at ZB nawaydays mind u xmas is aroud the conner.
# In S.A and Botswana, the basic BANK RATE which the central banks determine. This rate ultimately influences the lending rates in commercial banks. The policy framework that grz annouced notlong ago following after the British system.
Currenct adjustments are basically effected through this set up. They are able to determine exactly how much devaluation to effect on thier currency. Through a policy statement through the media. AS SIMPLE AS THAT.
So should we say the BOZ and MOFNP are basically stalling the economic progress they claim is happening?
#163
A set up or policy framework that will ensure that Central bank have a sought of indirect influence on commercial bank interest rates is what we need in Zambia. In the current situation, GRZ knows exactly what they need to do but can only hope that the private sector and businesses read and appreciate government policy. GRZ can call for reduction of interest rate to no avail.
#166
I am not saying that at all. The current policy framework is being implemented as stipulated or as was intended. But what I am saying is that there is need to change policy to suit the new challenges we now face and in view of the gains already made.Note what I have said in #167
I depart from this topic with delight that i have learned alot on economics and generally what is happening in Zed.I think Chibamba would pass my interviews coz it seems people who are suppose to give us info are on holiday or deep sleep.If we can apply the same pressure and scrutin on our MPS,Minister and our pastors like Pule,Nevers Zambia will be a better place.
Ba che. More acomplished and very oblivious to be of any use on this blog. Others keep Reading books all their lives without ever making any meaningful headline in life Chibamba is making his contribution what’s yours? Blogging because you can identify letters in a key board? Qualification doesn’t always equate to competence. HH is an economist with a huge accounting success. Jack welch is a chemical engineer with a huge business acumen. Life is like an open highway you choose your speed and destination. Chibamba is one great story of Zambian perseverance although not the best.
#163 The Kwacha rate should be such that if exchanged with, let say the rand, it should be able to buy apprimately the same amount of goods in southafrica as would an equivalent amount of Rand converted in kwacha. In essence, petrol in the region should more or less be bought at the same amount if that regional currency was converted into , let say dollars. That is being competitive. If I travel from Botswana to Zambia, it is such a heavy burden on me to change my Pula into Kwacha. Whilst I can AFFORD to simply spend P6.90 on a litre of Petrol in Botswana, I will have to spend almost P20.00 to get a litre of Petrol in Zambia! Isn’t that madness!
#168, I also depart from this topic with a very high sense of satisfaction whatever you are doing in Botswana, maybe you should have been deputy Governor at BOZ by now, but hey you are contributing just where you are. I am appalled at the way our Government has just left the financial sector to the private sector and let us be eaten by sharks. But all the same it was a worthwhile discussion.
#171 cont’d
If let say the Kwacha became, P6100.00, I will still be able to spend only P6.10 in Zambia!
Traslate this into our other commodities, services. Our Goods will be competitive regionally! With the kwacha at let say K3000 – 1 DOLLAR, It is not shocking to spend P30.OO per litre of petrol in Zambia. Who would want to come and spend his dollars in Zambia at that rate! A tourist would rather go to our regional competitors. Invetment money is cheap in Zambia with a strong Kwacha!
171 it’s not madness that is a very basic comparison. You see if you buy your fuel In Bots
you will not pay for road use charges in your Price of fuel you will obviously pay less at the pump but you will have to chip in a little extra at a toll gate. Here in zed such charges and others are built into the price per litter of fuel. Don’t ask me where the money goes but that’s why we pay more for our fuel. The ERB and RDA sit to determine the annual road maintenance Cost and they distribute it in the litters of fuel you buy at the pump as motorists. Govt subsidy levels are also different between the two countries. I do not know the exact figures but I presume ours are lower due to obvious reasons of economic scale. I do agree though that we can do better than we currently are by broadening the tax base in order to reduce the contribution person.
Imwe ba guy i think you are too petty. why spend all this time discussing an individual. This blog is now for gossip. If you feel you know better than Kanyama then why not have your ideas tested in the Print and Electronic media? then we can know who you are than posting ma ile ile on this blog. One way of doing so is to be a cloumnist in the Post or other papers. Imwe ba fikkala muli ma Loosers sana. I think few of you went beyond first degree. Ah..ah.ah.ah.
Ati Timbwi was my Lecturer at CUEA. You bored this man.. How are you Father? Dimuna C.K.- Philo II.
The oil industry drives the USA economy and to ensure economic activities, the fuel price is kept at a low level. This deliberately to guanrantee economic activity and participation by ensuring energy input is low and maximising output through sustained economic activities.
Zambia’s case is reverse, heavy dependence on copper only guarantees a measure of short term budgetory sustainance through forex earnings.
Whilst the initial cost of fuel may seem affordable by Zambia from earned forex, the ground cost is high because this cost is dependant on the cost of doing business on the ground!
From 174 sorry meant to say contribution per person.
As we debate the kwacha lets also look at how the kwacha we work for us when we go past 55years, ie NAPSA.
Country which have done have had a strong Social Security Policy. EU and USA. Pension contributions are cheaper way of raising capital. Companies will be able to borrow on reduced rates or Pension House will invest in these companies eg if we have 6 companies like Chilanga Cement fully operational. So if we can have strong local manufacturing base for finnished goods, the kwacha we gain its past glory 1ZMK=2US$. More export more forex.
Sometimes I wonder, why don’t we qoute export in Kwacha terms? Like this who ever wants to buy Zambia goods will need to buy Kwacha then transact.
#174
There are no toll gates yet in Botswana.
#100. Ati Timbwi, ndalumba. Inga mwandilembele lugwalo ku:
[email protected]
Nbubo calino.
Chibamba—be consistent..before elections it was polical direction uncertainity…out come…or SATAs remarks…risk factors ass with it…electios are over…kwacha gains pseudomously then falls again…..come on guy….eletions ws a tip of an ice berg…..the major factor ws what u have said today…..pls spare us from your economics without facts….where are the Finance guys….these statements should be fed to us by the drivers themselves and not spectators like chibamba… what is up to and why are we nt getting the FACTS FROM THE DRIVERS…COME ON SITUMBEKO/CHILESHE BE ALERT……
#181. chimbukutumukumbuta,
You dont imply that Chibamba said the issues of election threats would remain the only factor on the exchange rates. Chibamba was actually right when he said some business/people feared who would win the election. And this was proven bearly a day after announcing the winner in the elections. However, the financial market is a dynamic one and, thought they can, factors that affect the exchange rates today should not be expected to obviously continue to do so even tomorrow. So it is an error that after a week when you discover that some factor different from the other week’s is affecting the market you say what you were told the other week was false.
Imwe Ba LT why direct the discussion to your liking? my Contribution was valid and you deside to remove it without getting any comment from fellow bloggers as to how they perceived my view?
Any way am about to post my supper blog that will be very interactive and non segregative.
175. This is called division of labour. Others exposes their leval of interllect and our job as bloggers is to analysis them and even counter check their credentials. I still stand by my statement: Chibamba is not an Economist. Having done a Minor in Economist does not make one an Economist. He did Mass communication and thats what he knows best hence his job at ZNBC, PR job at ZSIC and now PR job at ZB. He has never practised economics. If he did an MSc in some finance development, good for him but that does not make him an economist. He has the right to comment and analyse issues affectinng the country but he has not right to claim what he is not.
Chibamba the economist. Even people with development studies qualifications are considered a part of the EAZ! sha!!!
179 thanks for info. My point still remain that there are 2 different pricing structure btwn the 2 countries. In fact when you come to zed with a full tank of bots fuel, you increase the price of Zambian fuel because you will still want to drive on a good road paid for only a handful of people who buy zambian fuel and ending up being punished to pay more to cover an even higher maintenace cost on our roads.
#186 you are lying,find out how much is charged to come with a vehicle in Zed.Do not mislead people.
185 I`m glag you have said that. Maybe he is an Economist by association. Associate member.
I see alot of trolls. LOL!
What ever theories you are putting forward. Some one pulled out $40m from Zambia. Hence the new high exchange rate.
# 184. It appears Kabamba Chinyama has just taken advantage of the silence among you Economists. You are just busy starring at your computer screens and not informing or guiding the nation on important issues. Give us the answer(s) to the depreciating exchange rates, rising melie meal prices, high cost of fuel, etc. Don’t behave like historians just busy drawing graphs after things have happened … then the price of what rose … then the economy fell in 19what … then the world bank/imf … nooooooooo … we want solutions this time! Not time for pulling each other down. Whatever the case Kabamba has been very inspirational … what have you been?
Contd from 191. Try to hold a seminar with your professors and see how many people will come and let Kabamba do the same and you will see how many will come then we will now who can get a nobel prize in economics … you or him.
Chibamba did massom and then an MBA in the states. This does not make him an economist. This is why his explanation on kwacha depreciation is so speculative with any analytical content. He keeps on talking about investor confindence which even a grade 12 knowas already. A MBA does not make one an economist because you lack a lot fundamental economic tools/ principals to make an informed economic analysis on issues.
# Shoze Waya (Engineer
There are some things that are so simple that you do not need a real economist to understand. Chibamba is more than qualified for this staff. I have done mathematics, yet this is like common knowledge to me. Chibamba is doing a good job of explaining to the public. For those of you who have your PhDs in economics parked it’s is sad for you. I can tell you that there are business men out there have have not done any economics by they understand financial markets more than professors who keep theoritizing issues which have been affecting these businessmen practically. While these PhD holders are trying to plot a curve the financial markets are too zigzag for them.
The issue of over dependence on economic curves does not always help otherwise the financial crisis which started in america would not be existent today. Anglo-America tried to smoothen their curve for financial and investment projections for Konkola mine, but were dribbled by dynamics of demand. The indians at KCM came with economic instincts based on speculative potential demand for copper from China and made a great ‘Kill’ of the copper as prices shoot up. It is not about how much you have read and wanting to follow you graphs and curves, but being sharp and alert to possible future dynamics which sometimes may come from a near-authentic rummour.
Chibamba is not an economist. He has no formal qualifications in economics.This is like a Nkandu Luo misleading people for a long time about her status as a medical doctor. She is a biochemist and virologist. Related to Medicine but not Medicine. A few courses in Economics do not make Chibamba an economist. As for EAZ membership its a club. Anyone can join as long as you pay the dues. It isnot like LAZ or ZICA or Medical Council.
For instance if you have an MBA and ACCA you will have done quite a few economics courses and can speak and analyse issues just like Chibamba however that does not make you an Economist. Nkandu Luo is a professor in Virology and was trained in microbiology and biochemistry. This gives her extensive medical knowledge. But this does not make her a doctor !!!!
I can see Chibamba has done some banking courses in His Masters. According to some people here he is now a banker. When you are in business and work in management you can gauge what is happening in the business environment. He has made an educated guess from empirical and anecdotal evidence. Analysis involve examining the data and discerning a pattern. As far as I know Chibamba is not privy to foreign exchange movements in this country nor the reasoning behind them. Now if Chicha at Citbank had said this I would believe it. He has worked with Forex for the last 10 years or so. From a PR guy this is speculation.
So please I repeat if the article had said an interested observer and not economist I would have kept my piece. However when people do not respect other people’s professions. I think I will call myself an accountant after all I did some courses in accounts at Uni. I also did some statistics and mathematics. I think I am now a mathematician. Oh yes I should not forget that single computer course in first year. I am now a Computer Scientist.
i wish to run to CK’s defence a bit.If he has an understanding of economics he is free to give his opinions.Its a question of whether they ever do make sense.
However alot of his postulations have turned out to be utter crap that if he where to tell me a fundamental truth I would be compelled to distrust it.
Let him regale us with his theories.Try to bear in mind that Fermat the french mathematician was acctually a lawyer by profession!
Fermat studied both mathematics and law. He was a Mathematician first then became a lawyer later. He was succesful in both the law and mathematics. Furthermore he had formal education and credentials in both. Not claiming to be something because his degree contained several courses of a certain subject. Fermat was a genius. CK for all his virtues is not !!!
I relish, result in I discovered just what I was having a look for. You’ve ended my 4 day lengthy hunt! God Bless you man. Have a nice day. Bye
It is the best time to make some plans for the longer term and it is time to be happy. I have learn this publish and if I could I desire to suggest you some interesting things or tips. Maybe you can write next articles referring to this article. I want to learn more things about it!
I believe that is one of the so much vital info for me. And i’m glad reading your article. But wanna commentary on some general things, The website style is ideal, the articles is truly nice : D. Just right process, cheers
hi!,I like your writing very much! share we keep in touch extra approximately your post on AOL? I need a specialist in this space to resolve my problem. Maybe that’s you! Taking a look ahead to peer you.
Thank you for the good writeup. It in reality was a leisure account it. Look complex to more added agreeable from you! By the way, how could we keep in touch?
I’ve been browsing on-line more than three hours these days, but I never discovered any interesting article like yours. It’s lovely value enough for me. In my view, if all webmasters and bloggers made excellent content as you probably did, the net can be a lot more helpful than ever before.
I was very pleased to find this great site. I wanted to thank you for ones time just for this wonderful read!! I definitely loved every little bit of it and i also have you bookmarked to look at new things on your website.
I honestly think Chibamba Kanyama should keep clear of things he hardly understands. All he has is a one year masters of economics degree and this is not enough to make him really understand and appreciate what is currently happening in the Zambian economy. He cannot in one breath blame the decline on speculation & in the very next breath admit he remains clueless about the source of the currency slide? This is tantamount to stinking intellectuial flip flopping! Fo Kanyama’s own education, there are no perceived weaknesses in the economic fundamentals of the Zambian economy, there are real ones. Only a foolish govt would inject US$178 million into circulation to stabilize a currency whose slide reasons they are clueless about. There is no quantum withdrawal by the Federal Reserve Bank of.
Hello There. I found your blog using msn.
This is a really well written article. I’ll make sure to bookmark it and return to read
more of your useful information. Thanks for the post.
I’ll definitely return.
Here is my web-site :: ???????????