THE Central Statistical Office (CSO) has said that preliminary estimates of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) show the Zambian economy is expected to grow by 6.3 per cent in 2009.
CSO director, Efreda Chulu said the likely growth of 6.3 per cent was due to expected strong growth in the agriculture, forestry and fishing, mining and quarrying as well as construction industries.
Releasing the latest economic statistics for the month of October in Lusaka yesterday, Ms Chulu said the real GDP in value terms was expected to be K4,003.0 billion in 2009 compared to K3,765.4 billion in 2008.
She said GDP in nominal terms was expected to increase to K64,326.1 billion in 2009 from K55,078.8 billion in 2008.
In his 2010 Budget address to Parliament early this month, Finance and National Planning Minister, Situmbeko Musokotwane said the projected economic growth for 2009 was pegged at 4.3 per cent, representing a slight downward revision to the earlier projection of five per cent announced in the last Budget address.
Dr Musokotwane, however, said chances were bright that the five per cent target would not only be attained but also exceeded should economic conditions continue to improve in this final quarter of 2009.
Ms. Chulu has said the total imports by Broad Economic Category (BEC) in September were K1, 6434 billion in September, compared to K1, 7118 billion in August this year.
She also said Zambia recorded a trade surplus valued at K302.2billion in September this year.
Ms. Chulu said this was as a result of more exports than imports recorded in the month of September.
She said the country’s major export products in September were from intermediate goods.
She said the intermediate goods mainly comprised of Copper cathodes and sections of refined copper plates, wire and sheets of refined copper.
Ms. Chulu said Zambia’s total exports of raw materials accounted for 17.6 percent while consumer and capital goods accounted for 14.9 per cent.
The CSO Director however said the country’s import of capital goods such as machinery, vehicles among others accounted for 33.4 per cent.
She named Switzerland, South Africa, China and United Kingdom as major five destinations of Zambia’s exports in September.
Ms. Chulu said the five countries accounted for 82.5% of the country’s export earnings in September.
ZANIS
Only God knows if this is correct. One cant even get any information from CSO’s website.
I have said this before and I said it again. Numbers don’t like. The economist is in charge. Watch how he navigates this Ship called Zambia to economic prosperity. The trade surplus has been in ascendancy since since January under His Excellency the president Rupiah Banda’s rule. This points to the enabling environment our President has created since he took over. Those who just love negativity continue in your negativity while your friends take advantage of opportunities that this economy in the able hands of our president is generating. Listening to the PACT and bloggers here one would feel as if nothing good is ever happening in Zambia. There is the evidence and answer for you in the numbers and numbers don’t lie.
6.3% is CSO sure? well that will be good if only it will tricle down to reality and every Zambia feels the effect of the 6.3%. Its a pity this is not the first time CSO is telling us this, the big question is when is this 6.3% going to be translated into reality so that we can all benefit not just on paper? Ba MMD Chief Bootliker you are right, on paper yes, but what is obtaining on the ground is totaly different can you convince me how this is on the ground not numbers on papers please.
Whew!!!! This figure is better. Did I see 63% ysterday somewhere? Any way now guys “All hands on the plough.” That is the only way we can move forward – even better that this. The ultimate sign of economic progress ni pa mbale (pa table) – of the ordinary Zedian citizen. Pa Zed we are still struggling when it comes to imilile – I mean good food. We must have a variety not Breakfast, Ubwali; Lunch ubwali; Supper Ubwaaali; And this is for those that can afford.
Good news!! what does this mean for the ordinary zambian? at the end of the day am going to have more money in my pocket? am i going to see improved services from the government e.t.c!! if not that 6.3% will just be a number!! it could even be100% but is it going to better my life……………………..
The UK, USA, France and Germany would be happy with even a 0.5% growth. Zambia`s will be 6.3%-speaks volumes indeed!
I hope these figures are not based on the number of shopping malls, which GRZ seems to think is development by prefering them to factories and plants.
The 6.3% increase is just on paper as the cost of living is still getting higher by the day while people’s income remain static.the day the increase translates to more money in my pocket and more food on my table then i’ll believe these ‘clowns’
keep your shirt on – there is nothing to see here. You can use statistics to tell whatever story you want especially in a poverty-ridden country like zambia. We have had single digit inflation for like forever and yet people are getting poorer. Until you can translate these numbers into real jobs, real income, they will remain political fodder to be used to lead the sheeple. Can someone tell me by what percentage the agriculture sectore has grown over the last 2 yrs?
Goodmorning
If this turns out to be true, it will be the most positive thing that has happened to our country this year, but so far good news has always been short-lived. It’s always been one step forward and two steps backwards…Lord have mercy!
#7 kc. Thats the problem. They are counting shopping malls. If only we could eat that 6.3% mwe. In other countries you can actually feel the growth in the economy, but here, i doubt it. Our own media does not even understand what the heck this means. This is why you had one paper reporting the figure as 63% because they felt ka 6.3 kachepa sana. Yayi ndinthu!! Tiyeni tipitilizhe kupempela.
Can they tell us hpow many people live in Chibolya? If not, how can they tell us what’s GOING TO GROW? Tell us what HAS GROWN.
I think we need 63% growth in order to see tangible difference!!!! In other countries including developing countries such satistics translates into lower interest rates and exchange rates. But Pa Zed its the opposite!!! So one wonders whether this stats are reall
Before we pile priases on any one. What is this 6.3%? This is comparing GDP in kwacha terms from last year to this year. If we factor in the inflation, which we have not been told yet and from my recollection that has been averaging 9% or so then this is not anything to write home about.
President Barack Obama has welcomed the news that the US economy returned to growth between July and September.
Official figures showed the economy grew by 3.5% during the quarter, its first expansion in more than a year.
The growth was helped by a substantial government spending plan, including a scrappage scheme to boost car sales.
While Mr Obama called it “welcome news”, he said the US was still a “long way” from recovering from the “deepest downturn since the Great Depression”.
The return to growth of the world’s largest economy also sent shares on Wall Street sharply higher. The main Dow Jones index closed up 200 points, or 2.1%, at 9,962.58.
# 11, You’re right about the shopping malls. There’s a big debate right now in the US about what should and shouldn’t constitute part of GDP growth, which is currently measured by volume of economic activity. If your car is involved in an accident, for instance, and you take it to the panel-beaters, that’s an economic activity, so the economy grows by counting that. What’s happened to make us grow? RB Gulliver’s travels or Shika’s and Sata’s filthy noises?
#2, are you applying for Shika’s position? Another VJ in waiting, eh?
Not amused at all, madam Elfridah Chulu next time please talk about growth at the micro level. Thats what will make my mum (a teacher) happy. Where i am politicians talk about what affects people directly not the GDP nonsense.
#15 Cont
I spinned in this to show that as the biggest economy in the world stirs back to life, Zambia’s economy will benefit indirectly as China et al import our copper like before the recession. However, job creation lags economic recovery. Further we should look at the fundamentals – organic growth is still fragile. Most of the growth in USA and other developed countries and China has been due to govt stimuli. What happens when the stimuli run out of money?
As for Zambia, where is this growth coming from – shopping malls?
We welcome the 6.3% but let’s wait for sustained growth that results in job creation. We must begin to judge our govt by the number of jobs they create. Hopefully this will be the issue at 2011 elections. No insults, but issue based campaigns please.
A man goes into a library and asks for a book on suicide. The librarian takes one good look at him and says:”Fuseki Chikala!!!” Who’s gonna bring it back?
# 2 Its not about being negative. We see the reality at home all the time. We know you are a polititian hence supporting our useless leadership. How can you explain the inpact of the trade surplus to the common Zambian? You may be doing fine due to the fact that you are one of the people licking Rupiahs b…m ,but what about your relative at the village or in Kalingalinga? Are u happy that they depend on you even for toilet tissue? Shame on you. Zambia is down today because of *****s like you whom we wasted a lot of money on your free education. Now you are too full you cant even see those who are hungry.
Sourced from Zed Daily mail:
CARITAS Zambia has called on Government to ‘plug the leaks’ in the tax system that allow mining profits to leave the country largely untaxed by eliminating the use of secret mining contracts to grant mining firms special tax exemptions. Caritas Zambia economic justice programme officer Edmond Kangamungazi further urged Government to increase revenue and tax transparency from the mines.Speaking at the same function, Lantern solutions limited managing consultant Bwalya Ng’andu said Zambia has failed to harness its natural resources.
Dr Ng’andu said the big problem Zambia faces is the mining agreements that are too secretive.
“If Government is negotiating in good faith, there should be no problem. We are inept when it comes to negotiations…
#22 contd.
Speaking at the same function, Lantern solutions limited managing consultant Bwalya Ng’andu said Zambia has failed to harness its natural resources.
Dr Ng’andu said the big problem Zambia faces is the mining agreements that are too secretive.
“If Government is negotiating in good faith, there should be no problem. We are inept when it comes to negotiations. Agreements should be brought before Parliament and ratified,” he said.
This shows that Zambia’s economic growth may not translate into wealth for Zambia. The 6.3% may just be numbers to register overall growth but the money is going out of the country. What then is the meaning of all this 6.3% to Zambians?
The 2009 Legatum Prosperity Index, published on Tuesday and compiled by the Legatum Institute, an independent policy, advocacy and advisory organization, ranked 104 countries which are home to 90 percent of the world’s population.
The index is based on a definition of prosperity that combines economic growth with the level of personal freedoms and democracy in a country as well as measures of happiness and quality of life.
With the exception of Switzerland, which came in at number 2, Nordic countries dominated the top 5 slots, with Sweden in third place followed by Denmark and Norway.
This it — Big lie,lie and more lies.
Without job, the recovery is an impostor…a phony…a fraud. Without jobs, people have no extra spending power.
No new jobs = no new income. No new income = no new sales. No new sales = no new profit = no new jobs.
Lies of mass deception.
..contd. from #24
Out of the 104 countries surveyed in the study that looks at the factors in a country that could produce prosperity, Ghana has come ahead of Nigeria in the over all ranking. Ghana stands at 79 and Nigeria ranks 98 . On top of the table is Finland and at the bottom is Zimbabwe.
Zambia stands at 89 ahead of Mozambique, Kenya, Algeria, Cameroon, Central African Republic and Sudan.
Can anyone give me the central statics office website please.
#15 UK-Zed ob…
What jobs? Where? Recovery? Lies and more lies as the middle class dissolves before our very eyes.
It’s all an illusion…the conmen can spread their lies all they want and try give us the illusion of a economy for years…there is no recovery without jobs…PERIOD!
It is a complete illusion. In the UK they have on occasions in the last few months said yes we are out of recession (but at the same time we have the highest unemployed records) and then they backtrack and say oh no we are still in the recession. Its all lies and its getting tiring.
#28 Their website is never updated. If you want any info just look elsewere.
It is just a political lie. the CSO position is politicised. A growth of 6.3% which doe not translate into anything tangible to show.
I do not know how we shall reach that growth level when fuel queus have begun in Lusaka for both Diesel and Petrol. Diesel appears to be worst hit this time around. Will there be any order in our energy sector? One moment the ERB Acting Director announces pump prices increases, then later the ERB Chairman refutes any increaments. Surely can the Acting Director just dream and announce figures. Obviously not. The energy sector is simply in a confused state.
“CSO director, Efreda Chulu said the likely growth of 6.3 per cent was due to expected strong growth in the agriculture, forestry and fishing, mining and quarrying as well as construction industries”.
This i purely a lie! If the judiciary can be manipulated what more chulu and her CSO? This is end of Octber 2009 meaning that we are remaining with November and December! And Chulu is saying the 6.3 % will come about due to expected growth! Where is growth going to come from in 2 months time? e.g fish ban will be effected on 1st December 2009, So where is the growth in fishing going to come from? In chulu’s ntweno?
Hey Come on guys. This is nothing to write home about. Remmber that even in the darkest hours and Zambia as one of the world poorest has been growing at 5-7%. Is this really new? With good governance and clever leaders, Zambia would be very compatitive and leading emerging markets. But we dont have this and people still live in real poverty. Dont get exited over rubish and if you notice very well inflation in Zambia is calculated by things such as Kapenta, imbalala, things that really obvious and have no value at all. This is the reason Zambia will always be last in everything
No one in the right state on mind would be happy about this simple figure and live in the conditions of Chibolia. Such thngs should be seen in proper context. No unnecessary excitment. Let us push to dislodge these criminals in 2010 and put our country back on track. Our country could have been very rich but criminals invaded. I was supprised that ZRA is only starting to evvaluate mining operations and transactions. Why only now, yet those mines have been mining for years. You loosing taxes and you cant tell me that these baffons can only start avaluating now. When are you going to collect?
Why is it that Zambia is the only country that does such weird things. If you argue that, may we are correct, then my question is that why are we so poor. Infact poorer than some war torn countries. Even as criminal as IMF is, they advised us at least to start collecting taxes from these Indian owned mines, but our silly finance min… says we have to first fatten the cow. Which fattening is this crook talking about. If they are fattening this cow then why are they trying to evaluate the cow. Is it not that they are suspecting something from the same cow.
# 5 you are absolutely right. This figure means nothing, unless there is a trickle down effect to ordinary zambians. Are zambians feeling the effects of growth in GDP? Let us tone down the excitement and be realistic.
Yes the figure appear to right somehow and it can be justified to the increase of copper price on the london metal exchange apart from this I do not think there is any other reasons .if anything we will see things worse due to high level of corruption and antagonism with cooperating paterners.
UBUFI BWAKUPOLOMYA NOKULUKA BWEKABWEKA.
Lies in the morning, lies in the afternoon and lies at night.
twanaka no bufi bwenu bamambala
gentlemen even you dont like RB let us respect profensional analysis.Tommorow it will be you and you will need them.
No 38 you are poor because you just like talking politics you will keep quet when your useless candindate wins an election as of now every is is sour to you.Even if you dont que for essentail commodities one you will que for them just wait for your change.
The big question is WHY are we not taxing the MINES as much as we should?
#38 Zambia is poor because it is poorly managed.
It’s the story in most of Africa.
How do you change things – look at your presidential aspirants. Any hope?
“Zambia’s economy has experienced strong growth in recent years, with real GDP growth in 2005-08 about 6% per year. Privatization of government-owned copper mines in the 1990s relieved the government from covering mammoth losses generated by the industry and greatly improved the chances for copper mining to……..” cia factbook zambia. So, what’s the big deal? All this means is our economy is maintaining parity. what matters is what is growth like in similar countries and how deep in the gutter is zambia. mmd chiefbootlicker – numbers need interpretation, so quel your excitement and ask the tough questions if we are to improve our country.
I thought, for a minute the writer meant (Good news, Zambia’s economy has grown by 6.3%)
Economy is growing while people have no food. What a dull thinking …..
MMD Chief Boot-licker, how do you explain this anticipated growth when only yesterday ZRA major Government Collector of Revuenes/Taxes reported substantial defficit in results. Govt is still negotiating up-ward revision of taxes on Mining agreements as currently what we realise is bearest minimum. ZESCO sole Electricity supplier is struglling with provision of power hence black-outs; recent fuel shortage has negative impact on production and value of currency. Withdrawal of funding by Donors citing wide spread corruption. I can understand following blindly being Bootlicker, but pleae be real as this does not add up. Foreign investment in Malls and many more Malls cud be what you perceive as expected growth. At the moment even to keep the Kwacha stable the Govt has had to infuse reserves!
Does anyone actualy know anyone who believes this stuff?
#50 ZOZI-A-ZOZI. Couldn`t have put it better myself! Africans will never stop amusing. The i d i o t is paid by the government so all is well. How sad can one be?
This is kind of a good news/bad news story.
” THE Central Statistical Office (CSO) has said that preliminary estimates of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) show the Zambian economy is expected to grow by 6.3 per cent in 2009. ”
The good news: GDP can grow by 6.3%. The bad news: this economic growth is measured in GDP. Which means that the money taken out of the economy by foreign corporations is also counted as GDP, even though it is no longer available to the economy. Worse news: if these corporations make a big mess, and the Zambian government must clean it up and do so by raising taxes on workers – that is also counted as an increase in GDP.
It is no accident that economic growth nowadays is measured in GDP, and no longer in GNP.
6.3% is good for a recoverying economy.This gives me hope especially that economists who are Presidents in Malawi and Tanzania are making it happen.If this estimated growth will really be translated into real growth,then that will be good news for Zed.The US economy has expanded by 3.2 % in the third qurater and it very much attainable for Zed.
*****s CSO. Sent by MMD to say this so that people think that they are working. Simple. Lumwana Copper Mines started Production this year. Its target production volume for 2009 is about 200,000 metric tonnes of copper cathode equivalent to 1.2billion USD = K4,500billion. Bwana Mukubwa Mine reopend this year and Luanshya mine expected to swing back in plus KCM Smelter expansion reconciles the K3,000billion remaining difference.. K500billion growth i construction and agriculture.. Chulu reconciled for your thick head. Now tell us how of the money Lumwana & KCM is expected to make from our resources is coming back to BOZ. Nothing. They win , we Loose, again for the 20 year since MMD took over. get out!
#38 CIAO you are very right. That Fin. Min. is so Incompetent its unbelievable. He even has the audacity to say “only Kansanshi Mine ahs the capacty to pay tax” because they have to get the money they invested out first before they pay us anything!!.. This is the problem. Where in the world or in any text book have you ever heard such logic to investment, business, accoutning and taxes? I cant believe this guy is PHD at all. What has Return on Investment got to do do with Distribution of the very returns? Its simple. We,Zambia, Supplied the land(copper)+you invetsr supplied equipment to dig. The venture will earn good money, but you telling me that I cannot get my share because of …. what????? Chika lour are you serious??
Silly (former Serion) Citizen and maestro, where are you now? Silly said MMD would win Kasama, shame on you. Maestro – where is your support for hh to lead the pact, afer her expelled robbie for advocating the same? shame on you looooooosers.
no 7 u re so right and also they are counting the number of GBM kind of peolpe they are and how many countries have promised to give donor aid…
and that 6.3% will not make any difference either.we are indeed 3rd world for sure…
Haha. Very funny.
6.3 per cent growth??? the year is almost over, we’ll see if that’s the case soon enough.
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