By Elias Munshya wa Munshya
The MMD’s loss in Mufumbwe is a bitter pill to swallow for them. This is in fact evidenced by their refusal to concede defeat. However, it is a thesis of this article to show that while the Mufumbwe loss was a huge shock to the MMD there are tangible steps that the MMD can take in order to avert further disaster.
First the MMD must swiftly concede defeat in Mufumbwe. It does not make sense that the ruling party, with the privileges of incumbency should be petitioning an election result of this nature. Petitioning this election may go to show that the MMD is not in control of the structures of government at all. Additionally, it has the potential to show that they are bitter losers. The best that they should do is to concede defeat learn, from their mistakes and move on. The accusations of violence are neither here nor there. Zambia has seen more violent campaigns such as the Mapatizya by-election. And petitioning the results based on the notion of UPND’s use of violence is a serious misnomer whose political consequence is too fatal for the MMD.
Secondly, the MMD should check their choice of parliamentary candidates in the by-elections. For their candidate in Mufumbwe, they retrieved Mulondwe Muzungu who had been contesting elections since the Kaunda era. The question should be, didn’t the MMD have younger and fresher candidates they could have adopted? The optics of the by-election campaigns spoke for themselves—here is Banda over 70 years old, campaigning for his age-mate. Now contrast that with a young looking Hichilema campaigning for youthful Kamondo. It is clear that the optics did not work well for the MMD’s campaigns in Mufumbwe. A younger candidate could have helped them.
[pullquote] If Katele is acquitted of corruption by the courts Rupiah would be in order to consider him for the Vice-Presidency. Besides Katele, whose wife is Lozi, may provide the necessary connection to Barotseland as well. Barotse is undoubtedly a critical constituency in the coming elections.[/pullquote]
Thirdly, the MMD will need to shuffle both the cabinet and the MMD decks. I am sure that there will be a cabinet reshuffle soon and George Kunda is likely to be replaced. Such a move is necessary if the MMD are to turn around their political fortunes. Kunda has not proved to be politically helpful to Banda. What Banda needs going into the 2011 elections, is a Vice-President who is politically savvy. As such, he will do well to consider having George Mpombo, or Katele Kalumba as the Vice-President. Mpombo will help Banda stem the loss of “kwi Lamba”, and his politically outspokenness can be a good match for HH and Sata. Katele also provides a good relief for Banda. No one in MMD politics can beat Katele’s political acumen. Katele is a fighter, whose political shrewdness combined with some comedic elements proves potent for political maneuvering. Considering the corruption allegations he was facing, Katele had zero chances of bouncing back into Mwanawasa’s arms. But there was Katele, in Kabwe, beating VJ Mwaanga to scoop the Chief Executive Job. If Katele is acquitted of corruption by the courts Rupiah would be in order to consider him for the Vice-Presidency. Besides Katele, whose wife is Lozi, may provide the necessary connection to Barotseland as well. Barotse is undoubtedly a critical constituency in the coming elections.
Conversely, the man Rupiah Banda should not even consider for Vice-Presidency is Defence Minister Kalombo Mwansa. He lacks political popularity, and his grim temperament is demonstrated by his decision to take a civil action suit against a Dry Cleaning company for messing up his suit a few years ago. A whole Minister of Home Affairs, at that time, wasting lots of money, and precious time to sue a company because it had messed up his suit! I wonder what Kalombo would do as acting President if something like that happened again. If another company messes up his suit again he will send them a battalion, I am sure. And questions still remain, why did he litigate? Was it to prove a point, or to claim compensation? On the other hand, it may be too unfair to judge Kalombo’s character from this incidence alone, but coming from a man who does not make lots of political clamor—this incidence may be the only thing we can judge him by.
Fourthly, the MMD should re-think their Hichilema strategy. HH is likely to be the Kingmaker in the next elections. It is my opinion that the UPND and PF pact is not likely to materialize, and thereby split the electoral vote to Sata’s favor. Contrary to what many political commentators suppose, I am of the opinion that the MMD does actually have a better chance retaining the presidency fighting a Pact than they do fighting HH and Sata separately. With Rupiah, Hichilema, and Sata all vying for the presidency, an election that has all the three as candidates is likely to go Sata’s way due to the simple “ first past the post” rule. If we are to use 2008 elections as a way to predict forthcoming trends then the MMD is in deep trouble with the rise of HH. Here is the arithmetic, from 2008 election results Banda had 718,359 votes, while Sata had 683,150, and HH had 353,018. Banda beat Sata by only 35,209 votes.
And as such, if HH continues to eat into Banda’s support base in Northwestern Province, and assuming that all else remains equal, HH would obliterate Banda’s 35,000 vote advantage. And thereby create a huge benefit for the PF which is unsurprisingly holding its support in Lusaka, Copperbelt and Northern Province with the exception of Luapula. The MMD should therefore, try to speak with the UPND and persuade HH into forming a pact with them or even consider him for future Presidency. Honestly if MMD went and got RB from the farms, they can surely acquire HH. There will be more in the UPND who would feel more welcome with Banda’s MMD than with Sata’s PF. The overtures towards HH should begin now. HH and Banda could bury their insulting differences and make an alliance to prevent one Michael Sata from ruling the country. All those claiming that HH and the UPND are violent; choose forget Chawama—when Michael Sata was unleashed. With Sata in State House, the whole Zambia will unquestionably become a Mufumbwe disaster!
Yawn. How does this supposedly “learned” man end up twisting it to talk about Sata?
“Honestly if MMD went and got RB from the farms, they can surely acquire HH”
Well spoken….cant agree more!
The best man RB can consider for VEEP is Magande….this a political move that would not only help RB’s presidency but would help the economic fortunes of the Country as well.
When the centre can not hold, things will start falling apart.
Very shocking. Are these reporters hallucinating nowadays. Zambian politics, like #1 said YAWN indeed.
Elias, you have written good articles in the past, but for this one your analysis is misguided and you miss the point on 3 fronts
1) Mufumbwe loss was not a huge shock. UPND rigged and they know. We have petitioned and look forward to a second run and we shall bag the seat on a level playing field. We can’t glorify thuggery in the name of just forget it and move on. No!
2) Sata will win if all three contest. Hello, where you in Zambia in December 2008 or were you hiding under a rock? Do you know why they formed the PACT? They have been stealing each other’s votes.
3) How do you know PF is holding its own in Lusaka and Copperbelt? My friend do not underestimate the power of blue. Lusaka & CB have had PF for the last 10 years without anything to show for. Don’t take them for…
7
MMD Chief Book2) Sata will win if all three contest. Hello, where you in Zambia in December 2008 or were you hiding under a rock? Do you know why they formed the PACT? Ulei[usha imbwa ngeifwele?
Sata inspite of being handcapped in resources lost by a mere 30,000 votes(Size of Chimwemwe in Kitwe). Now that MMD are losing in NWP which gave RB vital votes on account that he was a follower of LPM, Sata will actually win hands down unless you bring in some ways of stopping him from standing.You must know that LPM managed to win NWP because he wasfrom the Lamba tribe who are very close with the Kaondes there. But that linkage has been cut off due to RBs tribalism and insults by MMD against Lambas
The article contains something,but the youth or so issue is not there ,having discussed with a lot of pipo over the matter ,Kamondo won simply becoz,certain chiefs Supported him in the previous Elections and to de-campaign him this time couldn’t work.But just like Lumba in Solwezi central is a wrong chap for the job.
As for petitioning,were there is tangible evidence like under counting of votes for the old man in some Polling stations and Kamondo getting more votes in an area were the voters far less than he got,being in power should not rise here.It should be upto the ECZ to curb this vise or else it will bring problems in 2010.
These elections have grounds for Nulification.1.Violence made pipo not to go to vote. 2.Were Mulondwe got 200 votes he was given 100 votes.3.Were the number…
cont. 3.Were there are 56 eligible Voters Kamondo got over 200,
Misposts of this nature should not be allowed.
So MMD have more reasons infact to do so.
This article is like a person enjoying the flavour and good taste of roasted groundnuts.That person keeps on enjoying his snack just for the whole awesome experience to be messed up in the end by one nut which is r.o.t.t.e.n.I liked the way Elias Elias started the article and i should say i was enjoying it just for the whole experince to be messed up by his analysis of sata.This guy needs to go to a reformatory school.:-?
” It is my opinion that the UPND and PF pact is not likely to materialize, ”
Based on what? The PF-UPND pact is a fact. Never underestimate the power of selfinterest. In 2006, the combined forces of the PF and UPND would have easily defeated the MMD, getting 58% of the vote.
Now, they have Rupiah Banda to run against, instead of Levy Mwanawasa. And unlike in 2006, the global recession has stricken the world and Zambia.
This article is quite useful for MMD if MMD have ears.
On “Additionally, it has the potential to show that they are bitter losers. The best that they should do is to concede defeat learn, from their mistakes and move on…. Zambia has seen more violent campaigns such as the Mapatizya by-election. And petitioning the results based on the notion of UPND’s use of violence is a serious misnomer whose political consequence is too fatal for the MMD definitely President and acting president Mr RB Banda is a bitter loser and I hope this article is the beginning of MMD to accept clear though not clean defeat in the Mufumbwe by-election.
I would however like to see MMD petitioning the Mufumbwe by-election so that Zambians are accorded a chance to take note of what MMD does in…
An oppinion is just like an a.ss,everyone has one
This is Munshya’s oppinion,its really pointless to debate opinions,facts make sense
As long as we are going to continue to recycle old politicians,who are past their use by date,we are not gong to go anywhere as a country,Katele for VP,lord have mercy,the guy has spent most of his old age defending himself in court,come on guys;oh its an opinion!!!! my bad
This mufumbwe nonsense is still going on!:-??:-??:-??:-??:-?? As you have said,its your opinion.HH cant go into a pact with MMD [-x[-x[-x[-x
# MMD Chief Bootliker.. U say you lost Mufumbwe becoz UPND Rigged, have u forgotten that u are the masters of the Game, if they did then they are learning quickly!!
Alas you rigged the 2008 elections thats how come that man whose oways flying in the air is Tekaling us.
To the Author its seems you dont like sata too much well just live with it my man believe me we had to adjust ourselves being ruled by thugs in the name of MMD and Congrats for leaking some top secrets Katele Bouncing Back as VEEP and Kunda being Dropped.
Lastly i Challenge you to write an article like this for the PACT oh!! sorry i forgot you work for MMD.
Continuing … “I would however like to see MMD petitioning the Mufumbwe by-election so that Zambians are accorded a chance to take note of what MMD does in” elections.
As for president and 2011 presidential candidate HH, there is no need for him to be used as a PAWN in the game of real-politics-life or chess and so let him stand alone. The mighty UPND should thus consider moving out of the PF-UPND PACT as soon as possible.
On “I am sure that there will be a cabinet reshuffle soon and George Kunda is likely to be replaced… MMD should therefore, try to speak with the UPND and persuade HH into forming a pact with them or even consider him for future Presidency… if MMD went and got RB from the farms, they can surely acquire HH,” make HH Vice President now.
B…
MMD Chief Booklicker says:
You must be very foolish. How do you expect an opposition political part to rig the elections with all government machinery at work?
MMD lost Solwezi central which they claimed to be a stronghold. If people in Solwezi where a mine has been opened and is operational can reject MMD I wonder how people in Mufumbwe where MMD reduced the bags of fertilizer can vote them. the narrow margin does not reflect the reality on the ground. be assured petitioning will even be more painful. You need to realize that MMD has been doing damage to itself by stopping some projects that Levy was doing. My advice to you is let RB just swallow his pride and bring back Magande in finance and I can assure you, more people will support MMD than the current crop of William Banda
Continuing On “I am sure that there will be a cabinet reshuffle soon and George Kunda is likely to be replaced… MMD should therefore, try to speak with the UPND and persuade HH into forming a pact with them or even consider him for future Presidency… if MMD went and got RB from the farms, they can surely acquire HH,” make HH Vice President now. Such will give Mr President RB Banda a plus even if president HH remains as an opposition UPND leader. I believe late President LP Mwanawasa had already started things in this direction and this would be part of his legacy.
This is better than banking on MMD National Secretary Katele Kalumba’s court-case direction and even MP George Mpombo who clearly resign on moral grounds from President RB Banda’s Administration of GRZ…
No. 19 With yo suggestions, what happens to th PACT between PF & UPND. Have you stpped thinking/
SO does it mean that when you come into power you will have just be rigging elections. You have a twisted view of governance and may none of you ever see power for the next 20 years. You are a danger to society. Under MMD ECZ is an independent body and we have cause the petition elections ..we have conceded defeat before that is not new. What Happened in Mufumbwe was criminal and it should not be allowed to have happen again
Just start preps for second round of voting in Mufumbwe
One thing that stands out for me in this article is the fact that contesting Mufumbwe makes MMD look insecure, out of control, and petty. They are the ruling party for goodness’ sake, they should act like it instead of whining and belly-aching. **==
:d:d:d:d:d:d#21 MMD Chief Bootlicker….my dear father (coz you are old enough to be my father)….with due respect, MMD has lost it. The party has been in power for so long that there is no new story it can tell the Zambians. People have been complaining of rigging since 2001 and MMD has been saying there is no rigging in zambian elections. Today MMD is saying there is rigging? :d:d:d one can just laugh!….its funny! The hunter has been hunted!
I wish you well in your propaganda mission. Just know that all these people who are now against MMD were once MMD supporters…..time to take stock instead of burrying heads in sand. I like Katele Kalumba’s objectiveness…he said it correct first time! He is a true political genius…the rest of you are pretenders.
The writer is indeed short of analysis. Bwana, in a democracy, you follow the laid down rules. Whether you are in power or not, if u lose an election, you don’t force your way. MMD’s petition shows that at least it follows the laid down procedure. That is what we want. MMD should not be confused with Govt. MMD is a political party with equal rights to UPND, PF, NAREP, Heritage and others.
Let it follow the rule of law. Zambians are amazing, if MMD forced its way you will start complaining about how rubbish ‘African politics are’ but here you are trashing the finest example of a democratic reign by the rule of law. Mr. Author, your analysis has fallen short.
The writer of that article seems to be a paid up member of the Makers of Mufumbwe Disaster. Surely if Sata is that violent, how come there was no trouble in Milanzi? There no excuse for MMD to be giving police uniforms to civilians. Poor KK was in power for a quarter of a century. Nothing of that sort ever happened.
“Political language is designed to make lies sound truthful and murder respectable, and to give the appearance of solidity to pure wind.” ~ George Orwell
:):(:”>:((
Oh my God. What analysis just to get on SATA. How can RB with corruption link up with HHs ingenuity.Let the guy remain with Sata to brighten his future aspiration.His plan is longterm so please believe is calculus- Ia sure you derivatives- you do certain things to derive something. You are so much in a harry.
MMD must learn from the results of the bye elections in N/Western province that they have lost popularity in that area. It is not only this part of the country but even were i come from in Central province the situation is similar to that of N/W province. This will be proved next year when we vote for the next Presido. Sata is not popular in these provinces but HH is especially C/province.
Ba MMD will remain with there stupid Kafupi but for Levy’s legacy we will ditch them if Magande wont be adopted.
I like the subtle humour in this article.very good read:d:d
Your last paragraph is out of this world…i dont see greedy MMD sharing power with anyone…if they can deny their own party members a platform of democracy, how else would they even begin to talk to people outside their own party about the same?
Mr. Munshya,
your analysis is wanting especially in defining what you are propagating. Similarly their is no consistency between your argument and reality. How can a movement that has out-rightly orchestrated violence against its own people rebrand itself and expect the victims of hooliganism to blindly buy into the new brand? the whole country is watching and so is the world. you talking about “merging” MMD & UPND, this is not an M&A. This is not feasible these are different for luck of better term bitter rivals that have no common blood running in them. Whats your point with regards to reshuffles? this is not a recycling factory more so, Zambia does has not lucked appropriate leadership, as much as the would be leaders shan the nature of current politics. Research more.
My analysis will be if RB, MS and HH stands in 2011, the results will be HH will lead followed by RB and MS will be the last. Simple reasons. HH will have upper hand on Southern, Western & Northwestern, while RB will have upper hand in Eastern , Luapula, and part of Northern. Copperbelt, Central and Lusaka will be shared amongst RB, MS & HH. MS will have big share of part of Northern. This time around 2008 election can not be used as reference things have changed. PF and UNPD can make a coalition government because they will have more MPS.
I thought that the NW Province was a UPND stronghold under Mazoka? Wasn’t the late Teta a defector from UPND? Mpombo for VP? ughhh! That hits is the gollies! I can accept Magande for VP yes, and in actual fact, I think that RB made a big mistake by dropping him as Finance Minister. Magande was pivotal in the 2006 MMD manifesto, so if RB really wanted continuity with LPM’s policy he should have kept Magande, notwithstanding the challenge. RB could have just struck a deal with Magande to wait for 2016 or 2011, whichever comes later (lol!). George has been very unpopular with the Post, but I do not think that the Post would have jumped into bed with anyone else. As far as The Post is concerned, RB’s buddy is their enemy. Watch the next VP!
NEWS FLASH……………..
All the politicians in UK have been admitted to hospital with bleeding fingers! They have been biting their nails!!!!!!!!
Labour 24
Conservatives 10
Lib Dems 4
so far, Labour is losing seats!
But what a lovely election. Zambia should send 11 million observers!!!!!!!!!
The MMD lost in Mufumbwe because their chief elections “strategist”, VJ was not around.
GK ran out of steam, due to ill health, and had to be flown to RSA amidst heavy campaigning. He is likely to be dropped.
That left RB on his own. RB has no experience of winning an election at constituency level. (ask him about Munali). He tried, in vain, to win support from some local chiefs in the area.
It was too late for him as the ZNBC propaganda machine did not realise that a lot of voters don’t own television sets. Lackson was wasting his energy yelling to the wind !
In a desperate move, the “puppy” insults were unleashed at HH.
“Hello VJ”. Where are you? Have you abandoned the old man?
Are those MMD cadres really at State House – if so, is that a flood they are avoiding? RB can’t even contain floods in his own backyard – says a lot about how this country is being run. Iyoo, mudala ena koma pa ndeke fye, apo pena tashala[-x
iwe chi # 7and # 21 get lost!! u such a fool!! u,a very useless, if u,a on mmd payroll dnt bring yo fulishness in public!!
The Legacy I agree with you but I don’t see Magnade accepting that offer, the president should have done this when he won the election. This is a point of no return for Zambians, enough is enough. I think Zambians are decided, MMD is out no one can save the fall. The best person actually would have been Katele to run on the MMD ticket but unfortunately he has no light because of his pending cases.
An article full of important facts and comedy at the same time:-w
Could not find a way to comment on this article. Munshya does not even attempt to disguise his bias and yet it’s meant to be an analytical article not a comment/opinion like Katie Good’s. It puts you off just from the heading.
Do you people really think RB is the best Zambia can have for presidency. I can assure you that man has no vision for that country. He is far from Sata very far. At the moment we need practical leadership which should propel our lazy minds then we will see change in the near future. Who can compare Sata’s work in the ministry of health and local govt. Gents let’s us think here. Compare the two. HH is also good but I have not seen his leadership before. Allow the PF/UPND to work togather for goodness sake.
Comment # 9 sorry there is no polling station in Zambia where you have only 59 eligible voters. Any centre to qualify to be a polling station should have not less than 200 registered and therefoe eligible voters. Wake up, sir.
This is an MMD article. How can we think of breaking the PF-UPND pact and forming MMD-UPND pact? Am very worried with this kind of analysis. The combining of SATA and HH is the best analysis ever than what the writer is prospering. If HH leaves the pact and joins MMD, he has no principles. That will be his political decline and I see no reason Zambian should give the mandate to run the country. Moreover, UPND will not allow his to contest the 2016 election.
The issue is that MMD is out of power this coming year. Thinking of Magande or Mpombo is a political disaster. Firing Kunda a law – Suter is shooting yourself in the foot especially when the elections are around the corner. VIVA PACT
Munshya offers unsolicited advice to help MMD maintain its grip on power. why would you do that to a party that has messed us up unless you are a cadre or want to become the the press adviser to Banda in which case you should communicate directly to them? That advice is also cheap and suspect. Yes MMD should select candidates carefully and fairly but basing it on age alone reeks discrimination. He also does not seem to have andy qualms with MMD using incumbency and state machinery unfairly. Yes they are being bitter losers but I would not despute the MMD’s right to petission election results. Or when he says Banda should go back to the days of tribal balancing to appoint VPs and Ministers irrespect of merit. This is an example of what Zambian politics should not be.Also, where as in a dem
Also, where as in a democracy we need to encourage efforts aimed at strong opposition Munshya advises MMD to use hook AND CROOK to destroy opposition and remain the only viable entity. Even in consumer politics you need to encourage competition to allow for the public to choose. destroying the pact or choosing opposition leaders to cabinet compromises opposition and is anti competition which denies us of choice. I kind of agree with Munshya that Sata should be stopped from ASCENDING TO POWER given his involement in violence in the past examples of which he has given. But how did we even let him get away with it? Because those in power use it only for their benefit eg protect themselve. what we should be discussing now is how to bring responsibility to politics not that Munshya nosense.
President RB Banda can continue with the Mwanawasa Legacy by either appointing president HH as an MP and then Vice President or MP Magande as Vice President.
US President Barrack Obama appointed bitter president nominee loser Hilary Clinton as Secretary of State and she accepted the offer. So for Magande, who once said that he is willing to help the straggling RB Administration, I believe that he would readily accept such an offer. This would boost MMD’s chances of winning or getting better votes in the Southern Province.
Avoid my suggestion at your own peril.
Have a blessed day all.
_
Matt 6:33 But seek ye first the kingdom of God and His righteousness and all these things shall be added unto you.
when is gk dying? please update us which plane is gonna carry his casket? his body cant anymore arvs. he been on that drug for quite some time now and you jnow what, he is no longer in the second phase but third which is very difficult to survive through. I dont mind gk dying even yesterday cuz I have lost alot of people who meant so much to me, not people magots like gk
Mwaka @48 How are you. With all due respect you have the right to sound bitter. This game of truth or dare by GoZ is nerve wrecking.
MMD read the electoral moodmetre, accept defeat and move-on. Petitioning a young party simply serves to show that you are no longer the stronger of the two. MMD needs Modern Minds, Modern Strategies to have a Penetrating Edge. The 1991 minds or 19964 strategists can not meet the modern ‘Computer Age’ political minds. HH is gaining popularity everytime and Sata is likely to be no march to HH by 2011. HH may win sympathy among many progressive voters by 2011 and RB should probably see if he can win HH’s heart than trade insults. Trading insults is a sign of frustartion anyway. Katele’s wife is not a factor in Barotseland. The Lozi pipo told RB to complete the half tared Mongu Kalabo road, period. If this does not happen it further gives HH a strong campaign edge.
20 years in power MMd is supposed to have a research wing and not relying on cadres to measure its popularity. The use of cadres should be restricted to young parties which are still building-on to attain their full potential. Should HH and Sata break PF will have more to lose than HH. If you look carefully at the Chansa Kabwela story in today’s post, you will see that more youths are waving the UPND symbol than PF clearly indicating the ‘new line of inclination’ probably away from PF. It is also possible that HH speculating Sata’s inconsistence is hanging arround the pact to get as many sympathizers from PF as possible.
Chi article off side. Where is father Bwalya to rule it with a red card??? U are even trying to comment on Katele’s case before the courts. Aytway Zambian courts are disgraced, they aquitted Chiluba dubiously. Now MMD should follow UNIP next year, turn into a fossil that will serve as an example of a once Munument.
This is a thought provoking article and brings out interesting ideas. What about a pact between MMD and PF? Being agemates, I think RB and Sata can work well. Somebody help Zambia! This cant go on.