United Party for National Development (UPND) president Hakainde Hichilema says the projected end year inflation of around 6.6 percent is unrealistic.
THE Bank of Zambia (BoZ) has projected that Zambia’s inflation rate will further fall to just above six percent at the end of 2010.
During the same period, the gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by more than six per cent.
BoZ Governor Caleb Fundanga is on record as saying that Zambia will be able to achieve a low inflation rate because of sound policies and the impressive economic indicators being recorded.
But Mr. Hichilema said Zambia should project the inflation rate at 10 percent stating that the 6 percent projection is unrealistic.
The UPND leader added that the creation of jobs and improvement of the economy cannot also be achieved at the government projected rate.
Meanwhile Mr Hichilema said there is a great need for the PF/UPND pact to address the challenges it is facing.
Mr. Hichilema said the pact should address all the challenges it is facing before the 2011 elections to avoid divisions.
He was speaking on national television last evening on Frank Mutubila’s Frank talk.
[ QFM ]
What happens if the rate is achieved MR H.H? Should you not be more circumspect in your musings? Surprised you still talking about pact. Sata seems to be more interested in suing people and going to court than focussing on the pact. We are still waiting for the harmonised manifesto and shadow cabinet. As for the leadership of the pact…….????
This man has good manners compared to SATA. Every time he speaks there is sence..!! The problem he has is the number to win the election. We must not forget that HH is very good negotiator, this is why he refers pact..!!!! But people must realise that he want to convice sata that he must pave way for him.!!!! Since SATA is busy suing people to courts, him must start campaigning now…!!!!
The only reduction in inflation that I see is on paper. Reality seems to be a different issue coz the cost of living in Zambia is too high, fuel prices are still on the higher end, unemployment is rife and the foreign infesters seem to be having better terms for conducting business in our land.
The copper prices are on the high side and Zambia doesnt even benefit a ngwee from the sales of our very own copper.
Let the Pact work and maybe we can have enough brains to drive the nation 4wad!!
Now these are serious economic talks that are realistic and needed in Zambia not the noise that Sata makes. HH would be a better president that our corrupt grandpa Sata.
HOW CAN SOME PEOPLE OF ZAMBIA FOLLOW SUCH A NEGATIVE FELLOW, THIS CHAP IS RETROGRESSIVE. BE POSITIVE KAMIMBYA IWE
THIS BOY IS DULL, WHY IAM I EVEN WASTING TIME HERE. ANYWAY, MY FELLOW BLOGGERS, BYE AND SEE YOU AT THE TOP!
Somebody said “statistics are like bikinis,what they reveal is so suggestive and what they conceal is vital”
I have a problem with BOZ statistics rhetoric.What ever has been projected in the first quarter had no multipler or tricle down effects.
Exchange rate is constantly fluctuating,interest rates are ridiculous despite BOZ threatening the banks.Govt is still insisting on overtaxing the few formally employed few
This is the kind of debate we need to hear from Zambia & not the usual name calling and insults. We should start focusing on these macro economic debates; viz- fiscal policy, monetary policy,economic development, unemployment, inflation, etc as opposed to the daily rhetoric of kaponyas such as the likes of Sata, Wiliam Banda, Ka Mulongoti & the whole legion.
Bravo HH and wish a forward thinking & progressive Zambians were at your thinking level.
WHO I BELIEVE BETWEEN HH AND HH I WILL CHOOSE FUNDANGA. HH AND HIS LIMA BANK SUN HOTEL LUANSHYA MINE KATIMA MULILO ROAD PLOTS SHODDY DEALS CANNOT BE TRUSTED. HH IS A WHITE COLLAR CONMAN
ZAMBIAN soccer legend Kalusha Bwalya (left) will challenge Danny Jordaan for the CAF executive position.
Well I disagree with Mr. Hichilema (BA – Economics) but I agree with Dr. Fundanga (Phd – Economics).
Dr. Fudanga has the arsenal of data to come to the conclusion he came to concerning the inflation forecast. I would like to see the data Mr. Hichilema used to come to his forecast of 10%.
Anyway this is economics and if you ask 20 economists the same question, you get 20 different unique responses.
Mr Capilast- I agree with you 100% though what delights me the most is the topic/issue under debate unlike the daily insults. Certainly Economics is a reasoning & predictive subject and as such different economists will come with different answers for the same question.
im back after a one month tour of USA went to atlanta, texas, chicago, maryland, newyork and cincinati.
I visited many zambian families settled in USA some have married americans while some have married among fellow zambians. they appear to be happy comfortable homes good cars but one thing is they work like donkeys and the jobs they do are humiliating. most look after old pipo and they are called live in maids be it male or female. I think thats not good life in foreign land better come back home
#5 and #6 i think you are one of those people benefiting from the Tax payers money of the day to be where you are.
Coming back to the topic of the day, the projected inflation rate is merely an estimate in my view as actual data in Zambian economy is hard to gether due to the pool systems set up by our Govt. what do those figures mean to someone in Shangombo? or to the farmers that are growing our crop and at the end Govt sets out peanut prices to sale the crop. What system is Fundanga using to come up with the projected inflation figures coz Zambia is not just the capital cities alone. No transparent research is carried out to trace where the nation is going apart fromt the Govt, denying the facts the the UNDP have come up with.UNDP has invested alot of resources in reseaching Zambians
IMO this kind of debate is a welcome change. Mr Capitalist and Sichilema, you are both right.
We are tired of old Zambian politicians that only attack others and not try to discuss issues that affect us. We the public must try and hold leaders accountable. If a politician says he will create jobs, he must tell us where the companies that will give the employment will come from. So both the governor and HH must quantify their suggestions and not simply tell us what the numbers ought to be.
@ #12 Siakainde Sichilema
I agree with you. It is a breath of fresh air to start discussing economic issues. I hope this continues.
Interestingly enough, this seems to be a topic PF shy’s away from. I wonder why…
UNDP has invested alot of resources in reseaching Zambians development level since independence and well the Govt. as a whole have done very little to measure the nations development since independence. To those short sighted individuals in Govt. they even go as far as acknowledging Manda Hill and the Bridge as developments in the country.Building a road in rural areas were there is one school 50km away from the population what use is it apart for assisting the infesters as they call them to take away our resources. Zambia wake up and tell these people to shut up n tell us things we want to hear. one major University (UNZA) that the Govt has failed to maintain then tell me whether 8% or 10% is going to make a difference. Its all BULLSHIT
# 13 LADY GAGA .Not you again. Are you going to employ all those you want to come back to Zambia. At least they are earning honest money not stealing day and night. They have made a choice. You will be the first to laugh at them when things dont work for them in Zambia. Its better for them to continue with their jobs than begging for 10pin in Katondo street. I remember once the late Mwanawasa addressed us in Sandton and he advised us NOT to come back home but invest as they are no ENOUGH opportunities. Ba GAGA just enjoy while it lasts.
#13 THE ECONOMY IN THE WESTERN WORLD IS SO MUCH DIFFERENT THAT WHAT YU SAW WHERE YOU TRAVELLED. DOING SUCH JOBS IS WORTH PAYING AS COMPARED BEING JOBLESS IN ZAMBIA. THE COUNTRY RESPECTS THE LAW AND ANY GOVT OFFICIAL IS HELD ACCOUNTIBLE FOR THERE ACTIONS IN DEALING WITH GOVT N WHEN YOU ARE FOUND WANTING YOU A PUNISHED ACCORDINGLY. THERE IS NO TRANSPERANCY IN THE WAY OUR GOVT OPERATES N ITS JUST LIKE A MAKE-SHIFT SHOP THAT CAN PUT UP ITS PRICE ANYDAY IT WANTS
Interesting that the news providers decided to just give us little data on what president and 2011 presidential candidate HH released on Frank Talk. Anyhow, I am glad that the president HH released data on the UPND and gave out hope regarding the PACT that is to provide a better GRZ Administration should it hold it after 2011.
On “Meanwhile Mr Hichilema said there is a great need for the PF/UPND pact to address the challenges it is facing… the pact should address all the challenges it is facing before the 2011 elections to avoid divisions,” it is sad that PF’s Wynter Kabimba has been cited as an enermy of the PACT by frustrating the efforts that the UPND Team is doing in order to create a campaign joint-manifesto for both PF and UPND that may offer hope to Zambians…
HH is finished !!
#18 mottsepe and #19 ausie ausie Im sorry for my earlier blog. Indeed when they come back home they might be jobless no income. Its better to clean an old white woman’s arse in USA and earn a dollar than be jobless . I think these pipo had respectable jobs back home I dont know what lured them to USA. some are doctors, pilots nurses accountants economists but they aint doing that in USA they are instead babysitting. anyway its up to them
LADY GAGA
A maid’s job may be humiliating to you but in the west it is respected as any other job is.
That maid can buy the same beer as a big manager can.
You must have a wad of money if u are not working ‘like a donkey’..what do you do – work half day?
One month is not nearly enough for you to understand how a developed economy works…good luck with your travels though :d
35 Secrets Your Pilot Won’t Tell You.
1-I’m constantly under pressure to carry less fuel than I’m comfortable with. Airlines are always looking at the bottom line, and you burn fuel carrying fuel. Sometimes if you carry just enough fuel and you hit thunderstorms or delays, then suddenly you’re running out of gas and you have to go to an alternate airport.” -Captain at a major airline
HH first all good to see you discuss sensible issues that the usual things you picked from your partners, at least you recognize the significance of low inflation and also that truth wealth and sustainable job creation can only be created by a high growth rate of our economy. I have a lot to give in this area and we want to hear your side of things to just help sharpen our thinking in MMD.
I agree with you that the projected growth rate is not enough to have a dent on our unemployment levels. More needs to be done and we need to grow perhaps at even 10 % to have an impact. And we recognize that and we are working on it and we are moving in the right direction. On Inflation , Governor has more information than you , sorry , but he could be wrong too.
2 – It’s one thing if the pilot puts the seat belt sign on for the passengers. But if he tells the flight attendants to sit down, you’d better listen. That means there’s some serious turbulence ahead.
3 – “We tell passengers what they need to know. We don’t tell them things that are going to scare the pants off them. So you’ll never hear me say, ‘Ladies and gentlemen, we just had an engine failure,’ even if that’s true.” – Jim Tilmon, retired American Airlines pilot.
4 – “No, it’s not your imagination: Airlines really have adjusted their flight arrival times so they can have a better record of on-time arrivals. So they might say a flight takes two hours when it really takes an hour and 45 minutes.” -AirTran Airways captain
5 – “A plane flies into a massive updraft, which you can’t see on the radar at night, and it’s like hitting a giant speed bump at 500 miles an hour. It throws everything up in the air and then down very violently. That’s not the same as turbulence, which bounces everyone around for a while.” -John Nance, aviation safety analyst and retired airline captain
At least HH is not saying ‘you cant eat inflation’, like his partners in crime. How PF/UPND will come up with a joint economic policy is anyone’s guess.
my party has agreed to support MC SATA’ s PF because it is the only party with sensible people ! mmd is on auto-pilot while HH doesn,t know what he is doing. i predict a landslide victory in favour of PF
HH irritates me every time he says something ! why cant he be wise like his friend H.E MC SATA? thats why i ditched mmd to joing PF because its the only Strong party at the moment.
#25 MMD Chief Bootlicker, it’s nice to hear your contributions at times though you seem to think you are the encyclopedia for the current issues the country is facing. Hear HH’s view to sharpen your thinking in MMD, thats unrealistic. what are you thinking yourself?
Oooh sorry ladies and gentlemen, i got so bored with this politics thing.
#33 Sometimes it is important to let people play the devils’s advocate on your ideas than let reality do it. What I mean by sharpen our thinking is that if as MMD we put something forward and somebody else shows up and put forward a counter view, it forces us to think deeply about our position and make us think about how our model addresses the issue raised by the opposition view and that improves or sharpens our thinking. That is why MMD and Zambia in general deserves a credible opposition and we really want that side of HH to come forward. When all you do is show up and insult us, chances are we wont waste our time listening to you because we conclude you have nothing to add to the discussion.
My dear Lady Gaga – a job is better than not having one. The reason I left Lusaka is that I could not afford to maintain my family despite being a university graduate. But here, even on minimum wage, I am able to look after my family – send my children to good schools, have good medical care. I have also been able to look after my elderly parents back in Zambia, as well as build a good house for my family if I ever return to Lusaka. All this on what you call “humiliating” jobs. For me, it’s survival and looking after my family and parents decently. Love, Zambian-Canadian
Is the topic about Sata and PF? Some of you up and down kaponyas are so dull. Is Sata and PF your viagra?
#37 Seeing as though Sata is aspiring to be the president of the country and the fact that HH is supposedly in a pact with Sata’s party I dont think it is inconceivable to mention Sata when discussing the country’s economic prospects. You obviously support Sata, and it is therefore not very surprising that you fail to see how Sata and his purported economic policies are central to this discussion.
MMD is full of lazy not so smart fellows scared chicken sh!t of real work. e.g drawing up and executive a via business strategy for Nitrogen Chemicals, when the plant is right at their noses. typical lazy chaps running around in suits.. haha they think selling something means you’ved worked hard.. it means you’ve failed.. Maize production was ONLY DUE TO SUSTAINED GOOD RAINFALL PATTERN over the last 5 years.. Nothing to due with the fertiliser crap. I personally cultivated 50 hectares.. of maize., produced under a 1000 bags.. rainfall was good. bought fertiliser like everyone else.. what are they talking about???.. lazy chaps
# 7 wanzelu, execellent analysis! I like you better when you are not being political. Indeed there is too much rhetoric with statistics without actual economic benefits reaching the people. We need the government to prove that the majority Zambians are reaping the benefits of economic performance through lower prices of fuel, mealie meal, sugar, zesco tarriffs, water tarriffs and lower bank interest rates for Zambians to compete favourably in enterpreneur activities with the foreigne investor who are having it extremely easy in Zambia.
Can someone please tell me what a PF led govt will be using to measure economic growth. It seems whenever govt quotes figures of its economic performance and many international organizations (e.g World Bank, IMF) agree with govt, PF bloggers dismiss this data as just “mere figures”.
So PF bloggers, please tell us what a PF led govt will be using to measure its performance since they have made it clear that such figures are “useless” to them.
Maybe that is a reason why PF led LCC is failing at the simplest of tasks like garbage collection…they are not collecting data for adequate city planning since such data is useless to them. I’m just assuming because I don’t this phobia on figures.
The Zambian economy on paper is ”doing” fine but in reality there is there is more work to be done, in any case who are we comparing ourselves with…is it Somalia or Bosnia?
Immediately petty/mediocre politics practiced by PF is overtaken real issues as above, i tell you that will be the end of the party. Fortunately for us Zambians even our brothers and sisters in rural areas do make intelligent votes because they can not stand politicsof poverty which is in the PF.
Sata as no new ideas the man is worn out.
As for you HH i watch you speak on Frank Talk yesterday at ZNBC and quite frankly i was very impressed with the way you were explaining the real issues. This is the HH we want to see. 2011 is near continue explaining the possible viable solution to our country.
When you disagree with Governor you should also provide an optimal level of inflation for us to develop using empirical evidence(data).
As PF and ba Shikulu, they don’t want statistics. They reveal too much, and so how will they cheat people? They have seen the problems that President Obama has with unemployment figures! Ba Shikulu knows that the best way to cheat people is to keep them ignorant, that is why he criticises the building of schools by RB’s government. Ignorant followers are easy to manage too, and that applies to the nation.
The level of thinking in Zambia is worrying. Most of the debate by some of the bloggers is so low. HH yesterday demonstrated the kind of a man he is, full of wisdom, intelligent, articulate; he is simply the best among the presidential hopefuls . SATA & RB can not reach that level of thinking. All those who are not tribalists do acknowledge that the man is worth putting in the sate house. VIVA HH
# 45 i was equally amused and amazed at the level of intellience and wealth of knowledge in this man HH. Surely we never him for president. Unless we are doomed.
Surely this is the man for president. Go HH, Go,goooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
Ausie, Ausie I have a problem with CSO statistics but there are not that bad off as they use internationally verifyable methods to arrive at their output. As for the Shangombo question, well if you understand what inflation is ( i. e. a calculation of price fluctuation over time ) then you know exactly what it means to shangombo( where I have been for work) The stability of fuel, foodstuff etc prices ie very real to all Zambians . And i also know that the studies done by BOZ and CSO are quite elaborate i have business interests in Eastern Province and we are covered in their surveys
its certainly good to hear real political debates not name calling. having said that i think mr fundanga is on the right track. man of his position has to be optimistic. i also respect HH’s opinion. though it would be good for him to say exactly what make him thing 6% inflation rate is unattainable. in the meantime fundanga is doing good staff
# 21 we know you fail on simple reasoning. We know you are kaponyas.Even simple reasoning you fail. If you are on a journey and you go to a bus stop where an old one and a new bus are loading at the same time, we know you would jump on an old bus that will give you problems on the way leaving a new one that guarantees you reaching your destination on time. You even cannot explain the basis of your stance.
People are running out of ideas on this blog. If you have nothing to say please just keep quiet.
First Lady Vibrant shoudn’t get involved those matters instead of your husband !!!
Please don’t forget the donations because you love so much the small people….
For the sake of those of us who are not economists, HH needs to be a little more elaborate. Does he mean to imply that there is a co-relation between a country’s inflationery rate and its rate of economic growth and job creation? I am totally bewildered by his reasoning in this article.
Supposing HH is right that the projected rate of inflation at 6.6% is “unrealistic”, is that necessarily bad? It may be argued that a “C” average student who aspires to get an “A” grade is being unrealistic. But what if, by so aspiring, he ends-up with a “B” grade instead of an “A” or a “C”, was it unrealistic for him to so aspire for an “A”? I admire Ghana for projecting that they will be able to become a middle income economy by 2015. Though having a comparable per capita income, Zambia has settled for 2030, as the year they hope to attain middle income status. Let’s suppose Ghana fails to attain middle income status in 2015 but does so in 2020, and Zambia fails to attain the status in 2030, but finally manages to do so in 2040, which of the two countries is the more…
Adding to my bewilderment, I note that the country’s annual inflation rate reduced to 7.3 percent in October, 2010, from 7.7 percent in September, 2010. This seems to suggest a downward trend. How does one get to conceive that it will all of a sudden turn upward? Since the rate of inflation is going down, it is logical to assume that it will be less than 7.3% in November and December 2010 respectively.
The problem with reports from LT, Times & Daily Mail is that they do not give an overall picture of a statement issued by opposition leaders but summarize the statements to present an angle that suits their propaganda purposes. I am sure HH said more about his projections as disclosed by some bloggers but we have been presented with a story that lacks the important bits to make the message complete. At one time when the Post was a paper that promoted democracy you would get these missing bits from them but they have now turned into a one party propaganda machine like the rest(in HH’s case).
With the important information missing it is difficult to argue in favour of against this report.
Low inflation on its own can not develop the country. What we need is a combined efforts of the various macroeconomic fundamentals such as Interest rates, exchange rates, Balance of Payment visa via level of exports, Level of Real GDP growth rate, Average real price levels, Performance of stock exhange,Employment levels, Revenue collection measures etc. If the above vialable are within a stable and optimal level then it may take us very few years to reach a middle income nation. Coupled with this is good and knowledgable leadership and this is unfortuantely where Sata falls short. He can not comprehend these matters hence should not waste our time with noise making in the media. Viva HH, viva Fundanga, viva issue based debate.
Incoming President….HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Hehe…pave the way for wise men to speak…
Firsly you who cant understand what HH meant when he said its not realistic to bring inflation to 6.5%, his statement according to Macro economic theory of Monetory Rule, it means that, if you reduce inflaton to 6.5 % given a small economic of Zambia it will reduce output or employment and this would increase unemployment. So, since Zambia wants job creation…many jobs for that matter, and in order to balance things, its good to settle for an inflation target that is higer than 6.5% but lower than 10%. This is the Monetory rule HH refered to. Got it now?
Back to the PACT issue….the Pact will work only when HH shows wisdom in accepting reality that UPND is a smaller part. Otherwise forget about it.
Agree with Zed Patriot No. 56. HH said a lot of things during the “Frank Talk ” programme but the whole interview was edited as could be seen from the time it ran- 35 minutes instead of 60 minutes