Tuesday, February 27, 2024

A Jet Engineer Flops Political Engineering: Why the Chirwa Plan Cannot Work

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United Party for National development(UPND) chairperson on Foreign Policy Prof Clive Chirwa during press briefing in Lusaka.

By Elias Munshya wa Munshya

Zambia has produced no engineer with more impeccable engineering credentials than Professor Clive E. Mulubwa Chirwa’s. From jet engine engineering to car aerodynamics, Professor Chirwa’s engineering credentials are among the best in the whole world. But the dear professor should quickly realise that being successful at mechanical engineering is quite different from doing political engineering. Nothing demonstrates Professor Chirwa’s misunderstanding of politics than the proposal he has made about the way forward for the so called UPND/PF pact. According to this “Chirwa Plan”, the Pact can easily resolve its “presidency” impasse by having Michael Sata become the Pact’s presidential candidate while Hakainde Hichilema should accept the position of Vice-President. Once the Pact forms government the two parties should then divide the spoils of cabinet on a 6 to 4 ratio with the PF having a majority of cabinet portfolios. It is my argument that the Chirwa Plan cannot work for several reasons.

The Chirwa plan ignores simple constitutional provisions. In Zambia’s constitutional character, the power of State subsists in the office and person of the President of the Republic. As Chief Executive Officer of both the government and the State, it is the sole prerogative of the President to both appoint and disappoint ministers subject to the provisions of the law. In so doing, the president cannot be bound by parliament or by his own party or by a pact or indeed by a coalition of parties as the case may be. Once elected and sworn into office, the president is expected to act according to his best judgment and wisdom.[pullquote]It is rather surprising that to ensure compliance the Chirwa Plan expects the two leaders to sign a document detailing the terms of this political coalition. This document signing should be witnessed by the church and other non-governmental organizations. I would be very anxious to find out what legal effect such an agreement will have. Will it be a contract or a treaty? Just from the Barotseland Agreement of 1964, Zambia has a clear precedence of not adhering to such contracts or agreements[/pullquote].

Additionally, in our republican political system, the presidency does not derive its power from political parties as represented in a parliament, but rather directly from the electorate. As such, a coalition on the lines of the British parliamentary system, as an example, is constitutionally untenable in Zambia. When the British, the Canadians, or South Africans go to elections they vote for a parliament and it is from parliament where the Head of Government is chosen from. In the case of Zambia, it is the direct universal suffrage that elects a president. It is, therefore, difficult in Zambia to form a parliamentary ruling coalition of parties because a president cannot constitutionally be bound by such a coalition in exercising his prerogative to choose his government and other officers of the State. In Zambia, parliament or parties in parliament do not determine who or how the president should serve the nation.

It is rather surprising that to ensure compliance the Chirwa Plan expects the two leaders to sign a document detailing the terms of this political coalition. This document signing should be witnessed by the church and other non-governmental organizations. I would be very anxious to find out what legal effect such an agreement will have. Will it be a contract or a treaty? Just from the Barotseland Agreement of 1964, Zambia has a clear precedence of not adhering to such contracts or agreements. Besides, Zambians do not expect their president to choose his cabinet from a gathering of church leaders and NGO’s. We are not a kangaroo nation. We choose the president and we expect him to exercise his wisdom and prerogative. We would not want a president whose presidential prerogatives are determined not by national interests but by the interests of Kabulonga based NGOs. Zambia is bigger than Kabulonga.

In the event that Zambians elected Michael Sata to the presidency, under the current constitution, Sata will have no obligation to honour the Chirwa Plan. The constitution will indeed be on the president’s side and the so called Chirwa plan can be dishonoured on the first day a president Sata takes office. The Chirwa plan would fail for lack of constitutional effect.

The Chirwa plan quite blatantly ignores the political significance of UPND and the rise in the popularity of Hakainde Hichilema. If by-elections are to be used as predictors of political patterns, it is clear that HH does have a solid shot at the presidency. HH has shown meteoric rise in his popularity since the last elections. He has managed to sweep nearly all of the by-elections in the critical province of Northwestern, and he is on the verge of breaking through in Western Province. The Chirwa plan does not take this important element into account.

By giving Sata the Pact’s presidency, the Chirwa plan ignores the significance of the Southern Province vote. Regardless of what many want to believe about Zambian politics, Southern Province still represents a significant voting bloc. This voting bloc is clearly faithful to HH and his UPND. However, this faithfulness to HH should not and cannot transfer to Michael Sata. If HH goes ahead and succumbs to Sata, Southern Province is very likely to break for the MMD and its candidate Rupiah Banda. The MMD is relishing this chance. They are just waiting for the Chirwa Plan to be implemented and VJ Mwaanga and several southern MMD sympathisers will swing into action to convince the people of Kalomo, Choma and Namwala that HH is a sell-out. HH is not dull and he understands very well where the ordinary folk in Mapatizya stand with regard to Michael Sata.

There is no doubt that many in the Pact have been anxious about its future and relevance. It has been my position that a Pact of independent political parties working together to remove a ruling party is good just for that purpose. However, it cannot be good for governing because the Zambian system cannot tolerate such coalitions. If the UPND and the PF were serious about uniting both before and after elections they should have disbanded their respective parties and gone to a convention to choose a presidential candidate.

But the PF and the UPND are no fools. They knew exactly what they wanted in the Pact. They knew exactly that while they showed a pretended appearance of unity, HH and Sata were not as united as we thought. But as for the Chirwa Plan it is as mythical as the myth that some continue to perpetuate about the existence or even relevance of the UPND and PF Pact.

126 COMMENTS

  1. Imwe Chirwa blundered he had an idea that hasnt sat well with our boss HH…he must learn to consult before he makes more blunders we cannot afford a diplomatic crisis as a result of a misguided statement.

  2. Comrade Elias Munshya wa Munshya, your analysis is very shallow, sponsored, and ignores the intention of the prof

  3. Who has given the rirgt to this Munshya wa munshya to be writing or talk about Zambia internal issues because his names hout Congo DR, i;m consulting wiki-links to rease one or two issuese abouot this chap.

  4. what mapatizya naimwe…ifyakwiba….you the same one who said there is no oppression in zed? the man is too educated and there is nothing on zambian politics that he can`t fail to aticulate….so noti ukumwenamo ba professor……zambian politics is just like driving a car which anyone can do.

  5. This twit who has authored this rubbish is pure MMD. He claims that southern province only has loyalty for HH and that Sata can change.What about other provinces that support PF? The article does not hold any water at all to say the least.The chap is cunning and just wants to confuse UPND so that the pact fails.

  6. “However, this faithfulness to HH should not and cannot transfer to Michael Sata. If HH goes ahead and succumbs to Sata, Southern Province is very likely to break for the MMD and its candidate Rupiah Banda”-I was enjoying and agreeing to this article till i came to this sentence.Hey bro this is just your assumption.Try to differentiate between what exist in your grey matter and the reality on the ground.Politics will forever be attached with emotions.You can never know what may motivate a voter tomorrow.Look at how the whole America was initially excited with Obama and how the same America is looking at Obama now.People tend to decide the politicians they want to vote for because they have their own expectations of what those politicians can do for them.Lets talk like men.

  7. Here is a solution for the PACT and the Zambian pipo: Let the pact chose an independent candidate, not SATA or HH. If they settle for Sata below will be the outcome of the election:
    MMD 51.2%, PACT 49.8% and MMD will stil form GOVT. If they choose HH for presidency:
    MMD 65%, PACT 35%.
    A new candidate (Neither SATA nor HH), but both founders of the two parties should support:
    MMD 38%, PACT 62%.
    You have the choice, i rest my case

  8. Munshya is Right.
    Thats the truth we never want to hear. Adding to his nonsense i would say that HH would be the better placed candidate. let them disband their parties and compete.

  9. Munshya is right,100% again! Its only in ZED where educated politicians are not cherished because the average voter has not seen the inside of the classroom.

  10. # 8 pipo like u shud be ignored. this article is rubbish…you cant say education doesnt go with politics, but when it suits you, you call pf a bunch of uneducated pipo..so wat is upnd in politics. this analysis is very very wrong.its only logical that this plan be agreed upon.

  11. iwe munshya dont mislead people, HH is a very good material but the truth is he cannot win no matter what. Even if southern province voted in numbers HH cant win. When you write your articles always read the political atmosphere not just dreaming the way you are doing it. Prof Chirwa has done a research and thats why he has come up with that very excellent proposal. UPND swallow your pride and dont cheat yourselves that you can win without PF the sooner the better and prof Chirwa has laid a foundation.

  12. Asumming MMD got 50 MPs’ seats, then 60 for PF and 40 for UPND would be a bigg boost for both opposition parties. HH and UPND are not agaist the Chirwa plan, they just want it to be discussed together with several other prssing issues. The only problem is that the IN TRAY for the PACT is getting more and more crowded. These chaps shouls have their BPs checked. Diaologue is very important; like s.e.x….. It allows you to breathe at least for now. China chizagwa na sudden death.

  13. :(( I am in agreement with most of you who submitted and ascribed this article to be trushed and thrown in the dust bin where it belongs…together with the author…

    The Prof, has a point and his submissions should be considered by all level headed Zambians…not ama cadres like NO.18 and 14…REPUGNANT INDIVIDUALS!

  14. This Pact circus must come to an end, let these characters standard on their own and stop wasting our time. All we need the opening up the media and allow these characters to debate freely so that we make uninformed choice.At the moment the State media is R.B while the POST appear to have settled for Sata but as nation we need to have a situation where all the characters wishing to lead us to be subjected to open debates.

  15. This entire circus has trademarks of an exit strategy the two progonists hope to exploit in sabotaging the credibility of other party to their unholy marriage. Sata wants HH to bear the blame of divorce but HH has continued to play some smart bingo cognizant of the fact that Sata is unsophisticated and disadvantaged by a retarded party SG Kabimba.

  16. #19,20,24 typical of pf mentality.What has the author of the article mentioned that all of you do not already know? Is it debateable that Sata can not be trusted? Can Sata guarantee that HH will be his veep in the unlikely event that he becomes presido?

  17. #9, I dont Agree with you. intellectuals have a place in politics the only problem with our intellectual brothers is that they are educated but not learnt. They fail to read politics and accept the environment. For example why did the HH driven privatization program fail during the Chiluba era? they Failed to accept the fact that Zambia is not UK or USA and so they went ahead and privatized every company overlooking important factor which exist in our environment. Why did the so called SAP(Structural Adjustment Program),which was introduced by the educated IMF fail? AFrica is Afica. How did Kaunda a form 3 graduate manage to build so many schools, hospitals, Roads, Companies? was he a degree holder? or an economist?.How come Sata has so much following compred to other educated candidates?

  18. These words are for you Munshya wa Munshya,Listen to the voices inside of you, they will tell you what is right and what is wrong, they will bring you happiness and peace; if you don’t listen to them they can create anxiety, discontentment, and unhappiness. are you sure you still want to stand by this lot that has brought so much disgruntlement in our country…let that voice tell…The real spectator!

  19. the writer of this article is very right
    we are not considering one important factor, that is the current constitution gives power to the president to appoint and not appoint anyone he pleases ie vice, ministers, deputy ministers

    how will the agreement hold up if the pact had to win and what will it be bound by ???? because as rightly written the president has the right to appoint anyone. This i think is food for thought!!!!!!!!!!!!

  20. None of the presidential aspirants have any post-election plan in place. Therefore, it does not matter who we support, provided they are capable of delivering a fatal blow to MMD. At the moment, Zambia is in a fight for its democratic soul. Another five years of Banda will reduce Zambia to ‘Zimbabwe mark 2’. In a poor country, like ours, freedom of speech and justice are the only two things that give poor people their dignity. That is what people in rich Bahrain are fighting for. We’ve seen what is happening to these two things in Zambia. The status quo is not an option. We need to show Banda that a second term in office is not a given right! That way, the next president will be all too aware of the need to listen to the people.

  21. i agree with #14
    We need to see Economic plans on the table here not ma 90 days sweet talk…
    Most of you chaps here are just ignorant and bitter with no objectivity to your arguments

  22. This article is very misleading on the people of southern province.It is a myth to think that the likes of MMD can sweep the southern province just because of the Sata,factor i grew up in that part of Zambia and still have plenty of relatives there,PF is a lesser evil than MMD to most people in southern province.By the way the likes of VJ are not wanted and trusted in southern province ,so him being a factor if PF took the presidency is another myth which can never be true.If HH ever wants to contribute to this country in leadership this will be his last election and he should seriously think through the Professor ‘s proposal.It will deliver the UPND to leaderhip in the long term.Do not just focus on short term gains most of the serious leadership contenders in PF are old in nets 5 years

  23. To be honest, it does not matter whether HH becomes VP or not. What matters in the absence of 50% + 1 is that the two strongest candidates go head to head from the beginning. Otherwise, the vote will be split three ways and the incumbant will be able to just still the vote. It was impossible for KK to rig the vote in 1991 because Kafupi got such a resounding landslide!

  24. continued from 29….Education just enhances good leadership, it will never make someone to be a good leader though we are taught so in Universities.For example HH says PF and UPND have to harmonize their Economic fimofimo before agreeing on who should be president. But does he think the electorate are concerned about harmonization of their manifestos.they dont even understand those things.Those are just on paper they will not even be implemented. Who cares? What is wrong with choosing a pact leader and harmonize their theories later? If they dont agree they can still part. so he has not set his priorities right….

  25. Elias Munshya wa Munshya, if at all that is your name, you are joker+boot licker. Your analysis is baseless because Sata is more popular than HH. The difference of 35, 000 votes with RB is not a joke.

  26. Aha No. # 37. U remidn me of Chanda Chimba, his noise will land him in trouble. When in 2011 and not IF the PACT wins, we shall probe his ZNBC foo..lish programs whether paid for. If not paid for, we shall demand that he pays and who the source for funding will be.

    I’m told Chanda Chimba has started contacting some embassies to bolt to when the PACT wins, he plans to lie that he is being persued to be killed on account of political grounds. Chanda Chimba is a non issue, a noise maker and a vagabond fit for the dust bin.

  27. The author of this article is knowledgeable about constitutional law. No doubt. But to suggest that the two leaders can not work together because of legal technicalities is a major flaw in his judgment. I have seen two people living together and making important steps in life without a marriage contract. What is important is the spirit and not the letter of agreement. People like the author make a living out of exploiting the technicalities of the law. However, there are other forms of human engagement. Such a trust. George Bush once remarked that he looked in Putin’s eyes and saw his spirit. That was all Bush needed, to look in Putin’s’ eyes. Not volumes of books and legal jargon! The two leaders can work this thing out, if they have the will. Let me thank the author for the…

  28. “This voting bloc is clearly faithful to HH and his UPND. However, thisi faithfulness to HH SHOULD NOT (emphasis mine) and cannot transfer to Michael Sata.” Why not?
    The above statement has let out the cat: Munshya wa Munshya is writing at the behest of some very worried (and perhaps frightened) politicians – firightened of of the very strong possibility that one Michael Sata would wallop them at the polls and end their hold on power.

  29. While the Prof has spoken so well,but used a very outrageous channel.He should have gotten substantial evidence to support his proposal.Unfortunately,since he does not live here,he could only manage historical data and made conclusions on the same.The PACT between the UPND and PF can surely not work.Whether it works now through to forming govt,it wont work! Its best it dissolves now or face huge huge humiliation.Lets face it,this article is well articulated those it last minor flavour to convince all Zambian.The fact is it contains a great deal of Zambian Legal truth.Zambia is still safe in RBs than in a PACT without a head.

  30. While the Prof has spoken so well,but used a very outrageous channel.He should have gotten substantial evidence to support his proposal.Unfortunately,since he does not live here,he could only manage historical data and made conclusions on the same.The PACT between the UPND and PF can surely not work.Whether it works now through to forming govt,it wont work! Its best it dissolves now or face huge huge humiliation.Lets face it,this article is well articulated thou it lacks minor flavor to convince all Zambian.The fact is it contains a great deal of Zambian Legal truth.Zambia is still safe in RBs than in a PACT without a head.

  31. the question i would like to ask is;

    if the pact that has been running for just over a year (365days or 8760hrs approx.) now, has failed to resolve issues; how are they going to work in government?????? just asking!!!!!!!

    i think our leaders should think about this

  32. See (zedleaks.com) all PF wanted to do by realign Chirwa plan is that there are sorbe thing upend chaps unlike most of them who are extremists bended on defending their tribal team regardless of actual overall support on the ground. They want to reap where they did not sow. Ba Munshya just go demand your brown eve lope from FTJ for this rubbish article…given that you are in denial that UPND won in Solwezi because PF did field a candidate and hence Pact effects were at play.

  33. #9, you are the same people why eventually the whole country might turn to be a kaponya country. Who told you intellectuals have no place in Zed politics? So only vikopo (fikopo) have a place? I hope u are not a chikopo, but you sound like one!!!

  34. AMENDED-See (zedleaks.com) all PF wanted to do by realizing the Chirwa plan is that there are sober upnd chaps unlike most of them who are extremists and bended on defending their tribal team regardless of actual overall support on the ground. They want to reap where they did not sow. Ba Munshya just go demand your brown eve lope from FTJ for this rubbish article…given that you are in denial that UPND won in Solwezi because PF did not field a candidate and hence Pact effects were at play.

  35. Eastern province>Rb 70%. Central> rb 45% Southern> HH 85%. Copper belt> sata 55%. North> sata. 60% luapula >sata 55%. Lusaka sata >45%Northwest >hh 35%

  36. Munshya wa Munshya you’ve got it substantially WRONG. The MOU or treaty that the PACT partners would enter into is not recognised under the constitution. It is just a MORAL agreement with no binding obligations on the parties. Either party at any one time can elect to disengage.

    It is a question of MORAL OBLIGATION on the part of the PACT to deliver us Zambians from MMD evils!!!!

  37. UMULOMO NO BUFI Mwayambako ma anlysis ya boza we are aware of the fear this whole Proff Chirwas endorsement has caused there is no other way to remove MMD from power except with the pact HH might have gained popularity but not to win the elections single handed the same goes for PF. and RB cannot be for life Period all we need is change regardless.

  38. My bro Munshya
    What you are suggesting in your article is the politics you have read in class. Zambia has never practiced those kinds of politics. In the past people disappeared and died and a candidate surfaced from unexpected places. Ask yourself, if Southern province was as powerful as you make it sound, how come we have never had a president from there. Maybe the southerners have been given more credit that is due to them, or maybe your article is purely based on wishful thinking and no statistics at all. So far the statistics are on presidency 2:1:1 meaning Bemba 2 Lamba 1 and ngoni 1. Remember that puts us a 3:1 because lamb is benne section.

  39. Chirwa is right. All citizens can sit down and agree on what best way forward on any problem, regardless of what the constitution says, since we all know that the constitution is silent on our massive poverty, windfall tax, abuse of office, and forgiving each other on corruption cases. Chirwa is asking the Zambian political leaders to grow up and smell the coffee, which is in unity in order to take out the plunderers. Keep it up Professor. Zambian politics is filled by non-thinking bodies of human beings only able to see things without creativity for a better nation.

  40. My bro Munshya
    What you are suggesting in your article is the politics you have read in class. Zambia has never practiced those kinds of politics. In the past people disappeared and died and a candidate surfaced from unexpected places. Ask yourself, if Southern province was as powerful as you make it sound, how come we have never had a president from there. Maybe the southerners have been given more credit that is due to them, or maybe your article is purely based on wishful thinking and no statistics at all. So far the statistics are on presidency 2:1:1 meaning Bemba 2 Lamba 1 and ngoni 1. Remember that puts us a 3:1 because lamba is bemba section.

  41. The only issue of substance in this article is the constitutional issue and that is, our constitution does not provide for coalition governments UK style. This means that irrespective of who leads the Pact, they will all be subject to the same constitutional risks, if i may call them that. I give credit to Chirwa for coming up with this proposal since the leaders themselves are procrastinating in resolving this issue. This constitutional weakness is one issue the legal brains in both parties should discuss to find a way forward. I hold the view that it is better (and progressive) to build on the weaknesses in Chirwas proposal than dismissing it outright.

  42. Sorry Zambians I know I cant win elections even under the pact but this is how I make money throug my limited company PF. Please allow me to cash in for the last time because I will not last beyond 2011. My forecast is that this business will not be lucrutive for for me after this years tripatite elections.

  43. Bamwinshya sure your analysis lacks substance. First how far have ou gone in your education before I comment? Your analysis is exhibiting great dullnes and low IQ. Where on earth does an analysit become biased? You have only concentrated on the strengths of UPND and the Tonga people without touching the strengths of PF in the Four provinces of Zambia even in the Past elections.

    Any way I dont blame you, I blame your parents for not educating you…or may be its your own fault since you opted for boot licking the MMD thieves. I rest my case man.

  44. This guy Munshya is a dreamer, scared of unknown…instead of inspiring people you are depressing them—–what a Man!!
    A dream that does not include a risk is not truly worthy of being called a dream. The man who leaves nothing to chance will do very few things.
    If you never take risks, you will never accomplish great things.
    Everybody dies but not everyone has lived

  45. #21 taunfwa. you have made my afternoon.quite correctly these two leaders and their followers must have their BP and sugar levels checked or else pooool and gone.!!!

  46. yOU CAN NOT CROSS THE BRIDGE BEFORE YOU GET THERE!!!
    The greatest evangelist Billy Sunday once said, fear knocked at my door, Faith responded……. and there was no one there. hahahahaha!!!!
    Fear like babies grow larger by nursing them.
    Nothing in life is more remarkable than the unnecessary anxiety we endure, and generally create ourselves– ZAMBIA HAS REACHED A CROSSROAD
    WE NEED A PARADIGM SHIFT IN ALMOST ALL AREAS OF HUMAN ENDEAVOUR

    We will not listen to haters like this guy..it is tioo late my brother–THE WIND OF CHANGE IS HERE

  47. Zambians are really st.upid, I think they really deserve the comedy of errors called the pact. If these guys cant come up with a workable framework on how they should work together, how on earth do you expect them to reduce poverty in the country? Working together as a pact is under 5’s play compared to governing and bringing prosperity to a poor country like Zambia. These guys have failed to jump the first hurdle and the Zambian f.ools still think that things will suddenly get better should these buffoons form the next govt. This is the same kind of thinking that has allowed Satan to be a player in the politics of today. Zambians are so stupid they cant recognise something good that is right in front of their faces.

  48. It is surprising to see how desperate the MMD has become. Zambians will NEVER be hoodwinked by myopic and low-headed cronies like Elias and his sponsors. Zambians are so much enlightened that cheap propaganda such as this is no longer relevant. Political engineering has got its limit. You can full some people sometime but you can NEVER full all the people every time. You time is up. Elias, the best your sponsors can be doing now should be working on their phase out strategy. They should be looking at finding a possible strategy of reducing the risk of prosecution when they are kicked out because they have wronged Zambians in so many ways. I do not want to bore you with the crimes they have committed because both of you know them very well. Leave Prof Chirwa alone. Time will tell.

  49. #44 You remind of primary school maths where 0/1=it cant. that is exactly your reasoning.

    Grow-up you fool.Mazoka got a lot of votes from Bembas in case you have forgoten.

  50. So now even if they ever get past this impasse, the next hurdle will be policy. Now look at the areas that need to be ironed out – economy, agriculture, health, education, etc. Yes the pact has all the time in the world to waste on infighting instead of selling the alternative to the populace.

  51. People who are critical are either jealous or uninformed
    what they say has no impact upon truth.
    If you have tried to do something and failed, you are VASTLY better off than if you had tried to do nothing and succeeded.
    The person who never makes a mistake must get awfully tired of doing nothing.
    If you are not making mistakes you are not risking enough.
    Experience is hard teacher because she gives the TEST first, the LESSON afterwards.
    GO ZAMBIA……….WE WANT CHANGE AT ANY GIVEN RISK…

  52. Munshya deserves a COAL medal for this analysis. What a waste of space! Does really think everybody is so ignorant about constitutional provisions and what needs to be done in order to make the PACT work?

  53. All these are MMD’s tricks of divide and rule. The fact is with or without HH as presidential candidate, even us from southern province want change. The VJ’s and Munkombwe’s have had their time and are no factors with people from southern province. Even our brother HH must not be hood winked by stupid praises by some “lumpens” pretending to be talking good about him. He may not be presidential candidate this year but his time will definately come. COME ON ZAMBIANS LETS BE UNITED ON THIS ONE.

  54. Munshya just like chanda chimba are suffering from NEGATIVE MENTAL ATTITUDE which if followed we will all fall in the ditch.
    we need change in ourselves – the people
    Instead of thinking to change the world , we need to first think of changing ourselves
    Change our attitudes
    Change our ways of doing things
    Change our associations
    Change our thinking
    Will will NEVER DEVELOP THIS NATION WITH SUCH ATTITUDES.
    ZAMBIA NEEDS A 21st STRATERGY WITH MORDERN MANAGERS IN OFFICE.
    YESTERDAYS FORMULA WILL NOT MAKE YOU SUCCEED TODAY

  55. As usual, very loop-sided analysis coming from the mouth of clergy. This is the year of brown envelopes and you are gonna be busy. Make hay while RB is in office.

  56. Ok, Elias give us a Munsya Plan, then. It wud be wise of you to provide what you think is workable given the circumstance. Its time you comprehended the fact that whoever leads the pact, there will be serious challenges than what is probably obtaining now. There will be opposition from those oppesed to whichever outcome and it will be more intense. However, there will be others who will accept and those on the fence. It will not be easy but definately not impossible. The problem is you Mr Pessmist Munsya want us to believe that it is actually impossible.

  57. shallow biased article from the state sponsored blogger and writer. what can VJ do in southern province which he has failed to do the last 20years. these are just the last kicks of a dying horse MMD, they still want to enjoy the simple majority from a divided opposition. i hope HH will not be naive and fell pray to these machinations. ba LT shame on you………..

  58. #11 Know your Zambia. Munshya is a Zambian name. However I don’t agree with much of what he says here. The Zambian president is firstly a party functionary even if he is voted in separately We can all see the MMD’s overwhelming presence in govt positions despite the fact that they are a minority in parliament

  59. Prof Chirwa did not come up with the proposal on his own….and didnt just wake up to think of giving this proposal. In everyone’s right senses who thinks he could have just gotten up to suggest things to PF without the other executive members being part of it. But he is soon learning the dirtiness of Zambian politics and the hide seek that is part of it. The problem started from Wynter Kabimba going to the press with a proposal.

  60. This analysis has a point. Clearly not appreciated by those with a cadre mentality like William. The author has taken a swipe at the Chirwa plan and not the person himself-however most here choose to attack the author and not the merits and demerits of his analysis. And we wonder why we’re being led by old-timers. We deserve this leadership. What is at stake is a repeat of Kenya in 2000 elections. Just like HH and Sata, Odinga and Kibaki embarked on a similar path and ended badly which is highlighting regarding constitutional-ism.

  61. #69 What propaganda are you talking about? Isnt what we are discussing here happening or not? Is not true that the two parties in the pact are at loggerheads? So what Kabimba and HH said yesterday are part of MMD propaganda? Jeez, the ability of human beings especially Zambians to be self-delusional is amazing! This denial of reality will work to the advantage of MMD. At present, the pact does not remotely look like a govt in waiting. At this stage we should be seeing the new pact chitenge being paraded around the country. Sata and HH should be inseparable always appearing together and coherently espousing the policies of the pact and why Zambians should vote for them. Instead, we have this bickering day in and day out.

  62. We have all these eminent citizens calling for the removal of MMD, but what alternatives are they offering ? A PF party with no economic plan , one that is infested with corruption scandles, that it does not even bother to defend itself. A rottern party that has even failed to clean lusaka whos municiplaities it controls. Then we have a secreative UPND whos shy leader seems to fear the public when he is not in S.Province. HH is myopic, how could he associate him self with Sata, a champion of FJTs 3rd term. He is indeed guilty by association with a party devoid of any intalectual debate, a party were lying and stealing seems to come naturally. Give us RB any time.

  63. MMD has a win win position in the 2011 elections only if they organize their campaign strategy properly.You see,there is unexplainable unwillingness for a full blooded Bemba to vote for HH in the event he is the PACT candidate.And surely so is for a full blooded Tonga to vote for Sata if he leads the PACT.Regrettably,if the two parties opt to stand as individual parties,they will split the votes.So where does this leave MMD? They are the winners.This has nothing to do with whether you blogger s like it or not.This is the reality on the electoral ground.

  64. Another pessimist! The article started off rather nicely, so I read on expecting a critical analysis; it turned out tp be another anti-modern politics advert. There’s always one!

    We’ve got to be optimistic, but cautious and give constructive criticism to the PF/UPND pact-It’s all we have after RB’s ruining of our country.

  65. Now we’ll let the masses do the debating since our school of political science students had concluded their research while the MMD continues to laugh.

  66. Bane bonse. Have you noticed that LT has been sold to MMD. Thats why they are writing this rubbish stories..in support of MMD all the time. Dont even spend time time bloggin on this site. They get stories from a government agency

  67. Prof Chirwa could be right in many respects. If a coalition of the sorts seen here is to succeed, obviously the recent and past deeds of those concerned leaves much to be desired.

    Not that I agree with the Prof and his ideals, but and yet would rather go along side him. Why?
    To me, I am safer with his humble position as a mechanic. the genious displayed by one man seems to surpass the self acclaimed wisdom of the pact caders.

    Lastly, let us not assume that only “certain people” understand our politics and the political system and laws of this land.

    The Prof’s ideas may be used as a reference point for better judgments and not just be dismissed without merit.

  68. Vima degree na ma masters kupaka, thats why this nika is a confused chap. Therz no known professor know to be normal! Niofunta, UPND please bapisheni ba mudala ba chirwa out!!!!

  69. Munshya has messed up again; shallow and direction void article. Prof Chirwa’s proposal has more brain matter than all your scribllings put together.

  70. IThis munshya wa something must so dll. Prof chirwa should be allowed to use his freedom of expression.Yes we know he is an engineer ,but does not stop him from participating in politics. It is a fact RB is Muwelewele , but some people still believe in his poor leadership shills. munshya needs to have an open mind instead of being an attack dog for the rulling party.

  71. The degree close in the constitution of Zambia was removed for a simple fact that the level of education has very little correlation to being a good political leader. America has countless no. of PhD holders including rocket scientist but these would not appeal to one electorate.These things are different. Perhaps the MMD chaps noticed this earlier and realised that he (Prof. Chirwa) would probably not add much value to their campaign strategy. How about starting a jet and car manufacturing industry in Zambia, he (prof. Chirwa) would be my first choice.

  72. interesting article ,interesting comments.I don’t think Munshyas analysis is shallow,if it was why has it attracted so much attention.I think people realize that he is right but are at pains to accept the truth.VIVA youth of Zambia- the leaders of tomorrow.SATA HH RB by natures law will not be there for ever so why everyone is stressing I don’t know.Arise Zambian youth and take up leadership positions.

  73. Munshya wa Mushya, I did,nt know you were such a brilliant guy! Congratulations for your analysis. The only thing you forgot to inform the forum here is that Prof Chirwa is actually a PF mole in the UPND. Thank you.

  74. Bembas are the most selfish people on earth and in zambia. Atleast Tongas, Lozis, Luvales, Lenjes etc showed that they are not selfish by voting for Chiluba in 1991, but what we see now is that when a Tonga or Lozi etc wants to stand for political office Bembas say they are tribalists. Sata’s party is full of Bembas and even the official language on party matters is Bemba, we really need to receprocate if we need equality. This motive of looking down on other tribes will one day make others be to themselves and continue voting for their own candidates even if they do not win the presidency. BEMBAS ARE THE MOST SELFISH GUYS AND HH PLEASE WATCH OUT THEY WANT TO USE YOU EVEN AFTER CALLING YOU A TRIBALIST.

  75. For the first time in my whole life, I agree with the author who has written impeccable data on HH.

    On “The Chirwa plan quite blatantly ignores the political significance of UPND and the rise in the popularity of Hakainde Hichilema. If by-elections are to be used as predictors of political patterns, it is clear that HH does have a solid shot at the presidency. HH has shown meteoric rise in his popularity since the last elections… HH is not dull and he understands very well where the ordinary folk in Mapatizya stand with regard to Michael Sata” this is very accurate and no sensible political analyst can overlook this.

    I propose that a party that will field the Presidential candidate must field only 30% MP and Councillor candidates in each province while the other 70%…

  76. The Chirwa plan is the best to get the Zambian people moving with the pact. Otherwise without the Pact we are likely to see RB winning by a very simple majority again because the opposition is split. It’s time people became serious and realised that PF is a much bigger party than UPND and as such must be allowed to lead the Pact. HH will stand no chance in hell if he stands on his own whereas Sata stands a greater chance of winning on his own if the 2006 and 2008 election results are anything to go by. Our tonga brothers should advise HH that if he loses this chance he may never have another chance because he can ride on the popularity of the old man to build himself and eventually become President. Unfortunately HH will just have to trust Sata on this one, there’s no way out. Wakeup…

  77. People do not hate pf as a party, but their leader Sata who they regard as MMD Chiluba regime trustee. The man was a catalyst of all the confusions in MMD, and up to now the party is still solving the mess he left. So no matter how Sata tries to convince them, many conservatives will never forget his dirty deeds, hence would rather go for MMD the party getting cleaned up by RB, if HH is not the alternative. If you have observed, Sata’s popularity has gone down as evindenced from his failure to grab a single seat from the ruling party in the last bye-elections. Every well meaning Zambian would attest to the fact that UPND has gained popularity as it is the only party that managed to grab many seats from the ruling party both parliamentally and local government. MMD knows that HH is…

  78. listen all you people you are all wasting the tax payers time but not getting straight to the point we all want MMD out and the way us only one thru the pact dont destroy it further by useless blogging lets find a way of doing it to achieve the change of govt that we want

  79. nossles don’t think all Zambians are irrational MMD is the only party at present with a proper system,thats why we have had 3 presidents so far from MMD,the rest of the parties are based on individuals PF = SATA (worst thing that can happen to zambia if he became president) UPND = HH , Theres no point in voting out MMD just because you want a party with different initials to rule.We need a new breed not the same corrupt crooks.PF is full of crooks look at the Lusaka city council.The can’t even transform the capital as a manifestation of what they are capable of.No lets vote MMD till we get descent opposition

  80. We need an opposition that will tell us exactly what they will do differently.Not these insults we always read in the paper.How will they transform the health sector, mining sector agriculture etc.How different will their policies bedifferent from MMD.So far no one has come up with anything convincing.All just wat to sleep in State house and have cadres dance for them at the airport.Malabishi

  81. Kaponyas have received free advice countless times and on every occasion they have spurned the advice. Well wait for the big disappointment, wina azalila.

  82. Author, point of correction: True, Prof. Chirwa has distinguished himself in the area of crash worthiness, but this does not in any way make him the most impeccable Zambian Engineer. I hope you understand the word ‘impeccable’. In fact the man’s a disgrace to Engineers given his lack of political judgment. He is NOT a complete Engineer!

  83. As an Engineer myself, I give proff Chirwa 101%. In engineering we work with technical facts and the proff is right to say that PF must provide the president in the name of SATA as his party commands a much larger following that UPND. Where on earth do you find a minority share holder in a firm asking for a larger divident than a major share holder. The major share holder controls and dictates the direction of any organisation and in this case PF by logic deserves the right to contribute a president to the pact.

  84. No 29.Let us be mindful that education and leadership and two separate issues. Some people are educated but may not have leadership skill. One thing I have learnt about most educated leaders (with university degrees) avoid simplistic approach to social and economic problems, they seem to look at the big picture and the messiness of such problems. While the “unschooled|
    “ may offer a simplistic solution which when given chance they may fail to deliver. The latter type of leaders appeal to emotions not reason. just check out comments above for those against or in support of Chirwa’s plan. How many have given credible arguments. Most of us our comments are just emotional. By the way education is not just obtaining a Ph.D from oxford, I believe Abraham Lincoln was well educated than…

  85. Professor Chirwa is an Engineer and bright as he may be, he is not a politician. His naievity was shown when he was in MMD and was rejected by LPM. I hope we can all remember what Levy said while in Mfuwe on holiday. Levy said that Chirwa must first start with being Branch chairman, before he can become anything in MMD. Levy has been proved right. Sata was the midfield dynamo in Chiluba’s football team. While Chiluba was the centre forward his dribbling was aided by Sata. UPND will be dribbled. Sow to the wind and reap a whirlwind!

  86. This silly plan also assumes that the pact will have majority MPs in parliament. The Zambian constitution is such that a day may come when a President may have not a single member of parliament from their own party. This is theoretically possible and could have happened if for example General Miyanda or Ms Edith Nawakwi became President. There are too many assumptions in the Chirwa plan and I am glad that Elias has just thrashed it into the recycle bin. Right clikck. Empty recycle bin. OK. Are you sure you want tpo permanently delete ‘Chirwa plan?’ YES. Click.

  87. Elias Munshya wa Munshya, I agree with you 100%. Unfortunately, most of our comrades would rather sink their heads in the sand and live in wonderland!

  88. #108 i totally agree with you.when UDA was formed,UPND,UNIP and FDD had all agreed to pick a president from UPND which they did.why?because UPND had a larger following pipo.in politics its not degree or money that works but NUMBERS.currently PF has the numbers followed by UPND hence i support clive chirwa’s suggestion.the man has broken the ice regarding pact presidency as it has been a matter on concern and heated debate between UPND and PF supporters.if UPND goes towards MMD,not even vice presidency can be offered to HH.look at how BY,Nevers Mumba,Nawaki,Siulapwa,Sakwiba’s parties have died by forming pact with MMD,to me sata is beta…

  89. strictly speaking, on health score alone Sata does not qualify to run for president of this country. It is not rocket science to know that if you’re in your seventies and are struck by a massive heart attack like the one that saw Zondwe awaken in Morningside, you better start preparing for the after life and not running for high office in this life. The Zambian judiciary did the same with Levy, the man’s health was damaged but they allowed him to run and the result was death. Chamba Chakomboka was clearly senile and yet he too was allowed to run. Its the judiciary that’s at war with Zambians too and this is trouble they are now asking for if they allow a diseased lunatic like Sata to run.

  90. I think Chirwa is a dull engineer, what happens if HH’s UPND curves out the majority seats in the new parliament? Why should he have 40% of cabinet portfolios and leave 60% to PF which in that outcome would be the junior partner in the coalition? This does not make sense at all, Chirwa might be a PF plant in UPND. We all know that Sata is seriously losing traction in Luapula and even in his own Northern territories the MMD is winning some bye elections so it is not far fetched an assumption to make that UPND could muster more seats in the new parliament than PF.

  91. Sata to be President? HH will not last 2 yrs. He will be fired within 2 yrs. Sata and HH are too different characters.

  92. yaba, when I saw the title, I thought the contents would be detailed but peepe shuwa kasimpe Munshya wafeela mwe

  93. Elias Munshya wa Munshya
    Your analysis is spot on. The Chirwa plan does not mirror the prevailing political reality and is based on the 2006 results. The truth is, of the 3 major political parties UPND is the one most likely to increase it’s share of the votes for a number of reasons. In 2006 HH was new in politics and UPND was a divided party. The 2008 presidentail bye elections were a mirror of the 2006 elections since votes were took into consideration the number of MPs held by each party. HH has now gained political experience and has demonstrated political leadership skills by running his party very well. The political wounds in UPND have healed and most UPND voters who switched to MMD due to the LPM factor will back UPND. Why should HH surrender his advantage to PF?

  94. MMD- eastern province 70%. Central 38%. luapula 42%western 28%N/western 36% CB18%southern 12% lusaka 14% northern 43%=33%
    PF-CB 40%. Northern 48% luapula 45%. Lusaka 40% central %18 sothern 4%,western 3% N/western 4% esatern 11% =25%
    UNPD-Northwest 60% Southern 80% central 50% lusaka 42% western 40% luapula 3% northern 4% eastern 12% CB 28%=34 %

  95. UPND hold your fire! Prof. Chirwa has been a celebrity from day one in UPND. Do not rubbish his ideas outrightly. UPND by now has statistics of registered voters per province. Sure victory is only in Southern Province. By-election results show that the ‘rural’ zambia has shown MMD a red card; not that they are for UPND. E.G. North West gave UNPD a vote in last by-elections. Can we conclude PF is non-existent in N/West? NO! Western Province has finally rejected MMD. ADD is getting a centre stage, followed by PF. Check facts on the ground. Luapula, Northern will remain hard ground for UPND. Copperbelt, Central and Lusaka still remain PF strongholds. UPND you better rubbish VJ; he is betraying you. Prof Chirwa may be right. Give ‘Chirwa Plan’ a try!

  96. Kabimba stated that PF had not at anytime declared Michael Sata as the Pact presidential candidate.

    “We communicated the PF’s acceptance of proposals made to us by your member Professor Clive Chirwa. As I said to your president when he called me, I did not go looking for Prof. Chirwa. He came to me from your party,” Kabimba stated. “I am aware that after the discussion with us he came back to brief your party. Our understanding of the UPND reaction to the Chirwa proposals both by the UPND president and his senior colleagues as contained in your letter and the press is that none of those proposals appeal to the UPND as a basis for discussion under the pact.

    “According to paragraph 4 of your letter UPND is mainly concerned with ‘…fundamental social economic and governance issues that…

  97. “According to paragraph 4 of your letter UPND is mainly concerned with ‘…fundamental social economic and governance issues that we in the UPND believe and still believe must come first before even contemplating the issue of presidency…’ what is surprising to us as PF is that the Chirwa proposals contain this very item of fundamental priority to the UPND. By PF accepting this proposal in the Chirwa document means acceptance of the UPND proposal of divine importance.

    “Where then is the mischief which you loudly attribute to me? How does this constitute lack of maturity and seriousness on my part as you put it in your letter? What is indecent about PF or as you seem to suggest that it is Wynter Kabimba as an individual doing this behind PF in saying that the Chirwa package forms a good…

  98. The article is both shallow and inaccurate. It lacks proper analysis about the issues and lacks research both in content and field.

    If you you were to ask Chirwa if there were no other Zambians without his “Impeccable achievements” he will disagree.

    On the political front, we must accept that we are now one of the poorest countries in the world because we have sidelined Education and ignored wealth creating at the expense of laundering money and indulgence in brainless politics. Clive is trying to bring brains to the party.

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