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Wednesday, April 7, 2021

Prediction of political turmoil: A response to Dr Sishuwa

Columns Prediction of political turmoil: A response to Dr Sishuwa

By John Nyawali

I must say that Dr. Sishuwa is a prolific writer and researcher with potential of being A rated. I have followed his exploits from the time he was a student at UNZA to-date. His last article I read was his eulogy for Andrew Sardines (may his soul rest in internal peace). I have been compelled to respond to Dr. Sishuwa’s latest article entitled “This is why Zambia may burn after the August elections”. Let me outrightly say that at the risk of being misunderstood, Im responding to Dr Sishuwa in my capacity as a concerned citizen and also as a parent.

I have a different opinion from what the Dr. says concerning Zambia likely to go into flames after the results of the forthcoming elections particularly because 1) stakes are high and 2) silence of the international community including the United Kingdom. Those two are my departure points from what he says.

Firstly, I don’t find his article to be an opinion or prediction but advocacy in the sense that prediction is a science informed by well established systems, approaches or models. An opinion is also informed by documented history or events that can be traced to help form an opinion. The article in question lacks any of those two to qualify to be an opinion or prediction, that’s why I think it can be classified as advocacy.

When he says that this year’s election has high stakes that’s why he sees Zambia likely to burn, let me remind Dr. Sishuwa that this is not the first time Zambia is having high stake democratic elections.

We had the 1991 elections in which the party and its government (PIG/UNIP) lost power to an opposition party MMD and no high scale political unrest was experienced. Zambia as a country and her lovely people prevailed above all interests.

In the 2001 democratic elections, a well known opposition party took a clear early lead only for things to change at the 11th hour. Emotions and tempers were high among political players, it was a high stake election but reason and peace prevailed above everything else. Zambia and her people triumphed.

When the late President His Excellency President Micheal Sata lost a high stake election, some of his supporters took to the street to cause anarchy, but he prevailed over them and called for peace. Zambia once again prevailed above any other interests.

Not long ago, 2011, the country experienced one of the closely and hotly contested elections in which a party in government lost to an opposition party. Jubilant scenes in the streets of our mother land and at the same time, emotional and heart touching pictures of an out going President shading tears in front of local and international media. That was one of the high stake elections in the history of this country, but Zambia did not experience any unrest but peaceful transfer of power. Again, peace and reason prevailed above all interests.

In all these elections, the institutions that Dr. Sishuwa is mentioning and possibly discrediting managed and delivered results that were internationally accepted. The August elections will mark 30 years of democratic dispensation since 1991, as such, it’s my belief that as a country we have 30 years experience of managing elections. This makes the country to deliver an election without any difficulties as systems may have improved in terms of human resource and technology than they were previously.

History shows us that we are a people of reason, democratic and peaceful. No matter our differences, difficulties and challenging situations, we have a country and generations to protect. Zambia has always risen above her problems and has set good example to the world of what democracy should be in a third world country.

Even this time, Zambia will not allow losers of the forthcoming election to turn the country upside down. Zambia is our heritage and we also owe it to future generations.

Second point of the international community staying aloof, or being quiet on internal matter. In any case, there’s no good reason for them to meddle in our internal affairs.

Quite right, we need them their support, we need their money but not to the extent of losing our sovereignty or losing our rights.

Zambia needs to wane itself from the dependency syndrome. We need home grown solutions to our problems not solutions to come from abroad. Probably that’s why we are what we are today financially or economically because we have depended on foreign donors for a long time.

Dr Sishuwa should also bear in mind that those countries he is mentioning to have pulled out or reduced their budgetary support also have internal economic problems exacerbated byCorona virus.

Additionally, international politics are dynamic and foreign policies change from time to time. Case in point, COVID vaccines have been nationalized and be few poor countries have been given the vaccines or America first. Anyway, that’s for another day.

So, the pulling out or reduction of donor aid presents us as a country an opportunity to find home grown solutions. It should not be seen as a bad thing to happen to the country but as a window of opportunity. As the Bemba adage says “ubuchushi upela amano”. The late Tanzanian President Dr. John Pombe Magufuli showed Africa and other third world countries was still alive on the importance of self reliance. We can research on his works and the works of several other intellectuals who have extensively written on donor aid and its implications.

Having said all that, we need to emphasize that we have one Zambia and one nation. We have been a democratic country for a long time, we have experienced high stake election before and reason and peace has always prevailed above any other interests.

Zambia will not go into flames because of people losing an election, ivo veve sivizachitika.

The author has studied Journalism, International Relations and also holds a Masters Degree in Environment Society and Sustainability from the University of Cape Town.

Source: News Diggers

34 COMMENTS

  1. Dr Nyawali is wrong on several fronts.With a teetering economy squeezing Zambians hard there’s right ingredients for Zambia to burn like never before.

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  2. Sishuwa is not living in reality, where is the upnd going to get that support to even put our country in flames? Is it in southern province?

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  3. Sishuwa is advocating for violence should his party of choice lose. Such characters need to be ignored. If one lose it is because people have rejected him or her.
    May be he should help all participating parties conduct PVT to avoid any loser claiming that “bakamubida ma vote”

    Further, ZCTA can check and see if he is not breaking the Cyber Security Law. We do not need agents of anarchy on our streets.

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  4. For the first time Dr. Sishuwa wa sentimental in his discussion. He through away his cognitive reason and gave way to subjective political cadreism.
    We once had Dr. Neo Simutanyi, who was always predicting political party victories by spicing his works with political patronage instead of objectively dealing with matters.

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  5. For the first time Dr. Sishuwa wa sentimental in his discussion. He THREW away his cognitive reason and gave way to subjective political cadreism.
    We once had Dr. Neo Simutanyi, who was always predicting political party victories by spicing his works with political patronage instead of objectively dealing with matters.

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  6. Nyawali misunderstands Sishuwa Sishuwa’s conjecture. Sishuwa said if the Electoral Environment doesn’t change then Zambia is likely to have a violent,rigged and disputed Election on August 12. If that happens then Zambia is likely to burn. EIU recent Report echoes Mr Sishuwa’s fears and predictions. Zambia is not likely to hold a free and fair Election becoz ECL is imposing himself on Zambians thru an illegal and unconstitutional Third Term and is likely to rig the Election to retain Power. Already the New Voters Roll has been “doctored” and u can’t have a Credible Election without a Credible Voters Roll. ECL is determined to steal a Third Term and the entire vote. Thats a recipe for burning. That’s the scenario that Sishuwa was painting. If Zambia Concourt fails to…

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  7. No one ever thought Michael Sata would win the 2011 heavily contested polls against Banda? But he won all because he had enough support base. Every small young kid could say ” I will vote for MCS”. So please UPND must not prepare for unorthodox methods.
    Don’t lose before the game starts?

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  8. Upnd have been advocating for a revolution since 2015. They have created a sense of poverty and hunger, breakdown of law and order, corruption etc amongst their supporters. It is now common knowledge that upnd supporters believe Zambia is the fourth hungriest country on Earth while GRZ delivers bumper harvests. Recent by-elections have proven that violence only happens in Southern and Western provinces while North-Eastern by-elections have been conducted very peacefully. So in upnds world, there’s a crisis. In Zambia, we shall carry on as we have always done. God is master over our nation and Sishuwa’s evil plans formed against our nation will fail.

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  9. Shushuwa and Under 5 with his supporters are panicking after over rating themselves thing the problems we have will win them elections. Mwanya mafi yenu.

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  10. Dr Sishuwa has goo reason to fear that Zambia may burn this year. Nyawali has ignored the PF provocation of the opposition which was not available in 2011. As an opposition party, the PF was given freedom to mobilise both under Mwanawasa and under Banda. Edgar Lungu has refused to allow the opposition to freely campaign. And lastly, the PF itself also looks like a party that fears that violence will break out and has armed the police like never before.

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  11. ECL promised SADC and AU free,fair,credible and peaceful Elections in Zambia in August 2021. Does John Nyawali believe that ECL will do this and in accordance with the Republican Constitution? U trust ECL at your own peril! While promising Credible Elections to Election Observers ECL has already “doctored ” the New Voters Roll. U can’t have a Credible Election without a Credible Voters Roll. ECL has indicated that he is standing as a Presidential Candidate for a Third Term in breach of the Republican Constitution. It’s obvious Zambia will have a violent, rigged and disputed Elections which will engulf Zambia into Political Instability. Time will .

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  12. Lessons from Zimbabwe and Uganda.
    Despite President Emerson Mnangagwa repeatedly voicing his commitments to human rights reforms, Zimbabwe remained highly intolerant of basic rights, peaceful dissent, and free expression in 2019. During nationwide protests in mid-January, following the president’s sudden announcement of a fuel price increase, security forces responded with lethal force, killing at least 17 people, raping at least 17 women, shooting and injuring 81 people, and arresting over 1,000 suspected protesters during door-to-door raids. In the months that followed, several civil society activists, political opposition leaders, and other critics of the government were arbitrarily arrested, abducted, beaten, or tortured. Little to no efforts were made to bring those responsible for…

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  13. What is at stake here is that the losers (UPND, according to Dr. Sishuwa) want to make it ungovernable for the winners.
    Let me give you an example. Right now, some people who wanted to secede will be ranting agitatedly immediately after elections and propagate their archaic infamous Barotse agenda. And the UPND seem to support this idea.
    That is the burning these people are prophesying about. This is the danger such narratives have today. So please, this idea of Zambia burning must be nipped from the bud now than later.

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  14. Read, Listen, Assimilate, or Respond to sishuwa ci’sure at your own peril.
    Regardless, for us
    Zambians, we know that it’s PF 100%, ECL 100%, Elite Zambians 100%, Zambia overdrive 100%, Development 100%, Empowerment 100%, more Money in the pockets with hard work 100%

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  15. I would want edge especially the Christian believers to be careful on the use of there tongue over the affairs’ of the country, there is power in your tongue, do not abuse it. the bible says let the poor say I’m rich and late the sick say I’m healed meaning confession as power, Zambians let us lean to involve GOD in the affairs’ of our lovely nation, who will the president is being already settled in heaven, no matter how much we try to demonize one another it will not change what is settled in heaven, this nation will never be on fire come 12th August,2021 and beyond in JESUS name.

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  16. If there is confusion during elections it will be because of upnd and its followers like this shishuwa. We know what they are trying to do. They think we in the OP are f00lish. Should any confusion be caused, they will know who God is because our police are fully equipped. Let shishuwa not think that he is safe because he is abroad wiping backsides. Treasonous activity will follow you even abroad and I will personally *******

  17. If there is confusion during elections it will be because of upnd and its followers like this shishuwa. We know what they are trying to do. They think we in the OP are f00lish. Should any confusion be caused, they will know who God is because our police are fully equipped.

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  18. My surprise to what goes around UPND camp is. Everyone who supports hh is a good person and powerful. Every person who condemn what goes around in there camp is a sale out whether he/she is within or outsider. I had being hearing PF supporters condemning there own leaders and people will respond accordingly even when ideas are brought out what happens in these 2 camps are not the same. Whoever say what the leader of UPND is supporting is considered to okay but when one says the opposite then he is an enemy. Ba PF I salute you for giving freedom to everyone to speak freely. Now I wonder where is freedom lacking in PF or UPND? The answer is known.

  19. John Nyawali says the article of Sishuws Sishuwa is neither a prediction or opinion but an advocacy on something John is shy to mention. Interestingly, John claims an opinion is informed on well documented historical fact and events that can be traced to help form an opinion.
    Mr John Nyawali fails to identify documented historical facts and traceable events that constituted the opinion and prediction mentioned in Dr Sishuwa’s article. John even fails to mention the missing political level playing environment existing in Zambia. The un friendly ECZ headed by Esau Chulu with a traceable falsehood of declaring more vote results than registered voters in 2016 elections. Such malpractices by ECZ during elections of 9191 or 2001 were absent. John is very naïve and does not even see…

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  20. suffering of Zambians through corruption by his governments all these years. That is an opinion of beneficiaries to the maladministration and prevailing poor governance Zambians are going through. The end is insight of this government and a new one is surely coming.

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  21. We are One Zambia One Nation there should be no one to be looked down upon no one should be considered to be iferiority complex whether C.K,ECL,HH,C.T, F.M Wins he will serve the Zambian people.Lets avoid prophecying turmoil in our own mother land.Just go out there and sell your Presidential candidates and your Manifestos showing what you will do best for the Zambian people and what Changes you will bring that can benefit the Zambia people and Ba ECZ hopefully they will produce Genuine results as they did in Roan and elsewhere we saw Independent candidates emerging victorious.

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  22. John Jawali is mischievous. He is suggesting that if PF steals the 2021 Elections Voters should be docile and do nothing. PF with its heavily armed ZPS will try and put down the Protests. Hungry and Angry Zambians who are yearning for Change will stand up and protect the Vote. If Elections are rigged then Voters have a Right to protest Stolen Elections. ECL runs the Risk of creating Chaos in this Country if he rigs the 2021 Elections. U live by Sword u die by the Sword. The writing is on the wall.

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  23. Who is Zambian? Nyawali or Sishuwa? Who do you think cares about Zambia? Malawian or Zambian? Nyawali in Zambia? Get out of here!

  24. TIKKI,
    I think you are not a Zambian, us as Zambians we believe in peace I can assure you that there will be no kayos in our Nation, if anyone is an agent of the devil should know that the God Zambia believes in is more powerful than that which is proposed. It will be well during and after elections in Zambia. Either ruling or opposition who wins the elections it will be well with Zambia. My prayer is may any of the two camps that depends and involves GOD, win the elections from ward level, MP and presidency, a lot of people aspire ring have gone to consult devils for powers, may they know that you are God who is more powerful than what they believe in, may the power of the resurrection of JESUS CHRIST manifest in our nation , any one doing this in the secret must know that…

  25. John Nyawali doesn’t understand Zambian Politics. As matters stand ECL cannot win free and fair Elections in Zambia. He will have to rig the Republican Constitution as well as the August 12 Elections. ECL is determined to remain in Power by Hook or Crook. Rigged Election will bring about Political turmoil in Zambia.The Constitution is very clear: ” A person who has held Office twice is not eligible for Election as President”.ECL is trying to breach the Constitution to stand in 2021 Elections for the Third Time. That is illegal and unconstitutional. If this happens Zambians will rise to defeat ECL’s Third Term Project. Inevitably the fight the supporters of ECL and HH will fight for Justice. Sishuwa Sishuwa and EIU Report will be vindicated for predicting a violent, rigged and…

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  26. The damage done to the nation by Lungu does not need anyone with quarter a brain to support that guy. He has no moral conscience to even think of the lost opportunities that he has created for generations to come. The country has been taken back 5 centuries. Who in their normal senses would put their vote on Lungu? Who in their senses would jeopardize the future of their children and grandchildren with this failure of a person? Are we dolts?

  27. John Nyawali shouldn’t encourage PF to steal the 2021 Elections thinking that the Election Thieves will not be punished. ECL must realise that Stealing the Third Term as well as the Vote has dire consequences. People are not going to just watch while their Votes are being stolen and Constitution is being breached by ECL and PF. They will put up a fight to protect their Votes. ECL shouldn’t think that he can steal the Elections and get away with it simply becoz he controls all Electoral Institutions. People Power can overcome heavily armed ZPS. The writing is on the wall.

  28. John Nyawali’s analysis is very shallow and static. In 2021 we are dealing with a highly Politicised Electoral Institutions. PF thugs have been infiltrated into a Militarised and heavily armed ZPS. The Judiciary has also been State Captured and can no longer dispense Justice. Concourt in Particular has shown that it is controlled by the State House. ECL with all this Control over State Apparatus believes he can retain Power by Hook or Crook. Hence the Conditions for free and fair Elections no longer exist under ECL. He is imposing himself on Zambians thru an illegal and unconstitutional Third Term and he is busy rigging the 2021 Elections. Zambians tired of ECL misrule want a change of Govt. ECL plans to crush and protests against stolen Elections. These are seeds of turmoil beyond…

  29. LET PROPHETS OF DOOM PROPHESY THEIR OWN LIVES! GOD IS IN CONTROL OF ZAMBIA AND NO ONE IS GOING TO “WAR” AS PROPHESIED BY SISHUWA.

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