Tayali Declares HH Likely to Win 2026 by Default as Opposition Falters

Tayali Declares HH Likely to Win 2026 by Default as Opposition Falters

In a powerful and sobering address shared on social media, Economic and Equity Party leader Chilufya Tayali has delivered a sharp analysis of Zambia’s current political terrain, warning that President Hakainde Hichilema is likely to retain power in the 2026 general elections not because of overwhelming popularity, but because the opposition has failed to offer a credible alternative.

Tayali, known for his outspoken and at times polarizing commentary, emphasized that he does not support President Hichilema personally but is simply interpreting the political landscape as it stands. Despite growing dissatisfaction with the government, particularly on economic and governance issues, he argued that the opposition remains disorganized, fragmented, and without a unified message strong enough to sway the majority of voters.

According to his assessment, if the current status quo remains unchanged, there will be no transfer of power in 2026. The opposition, in his view, has not yet done the groundwork to inspire or rally the Zambian public around a different vision. What exists instead is a scattered front, riddled with infighting and lacking a solid grassroots strategy to penetrate beyond social media and urban frustration.

He pointed out that social media, which often reflects real-time political sentiment, continues to show significant support for Hichilema. While critical posts about the president attract engagement, many of the responses still defend or support the head of state, indicating that his base, though smaller than in 2021, is far from erased. The presence of this core support group, especially among educated urban voters and rural loyalists, gives the ruling United Party for National Development (UPND) a consistent, if reduced, advantage.

At the same time, the opposition has been slow to build its narrative. The former ruling Patriotic Front remains entangled in internal leadership battles and credibility issues, while other emerging political formations have yet to demonstrate nationwide influence or coherent platforms. Public discontent, Tayali warned, does not automatically translate into political momentum if there is no one to channel that energy effectively.

This political vacuum creates a dangerous illusion for opposition supporters who assume the public is ready for change. The absence of clear leadership, a compelling message, or national coordination means that many voters may return to the familiar, however flawedrather than risk the unknown.

Tayali’s analysis reflects a broader truth quietly acknowledged by many political observers: the path to 2026 is not only about the incumbent’s performance but equally about the opposition’s ability to earn the public’s trust. Zambia’s recent electoral history shows that transitions of power require not just public anger, but strategic preparation and unity on the part of challengers.

While President Hichilema’s government has struggled with high expectations, especially regarding job creation, the cost of living, and youth empowerment, his administration has retained key support from international partners, maintained relative macroeconomic stability, and continued implementing institutional reforms. These factors may not excite the average voter but contribute to a perception of steadiness, especially in contrast to a chaotic opposition front.

Tayali’s comments, stripped of partisanship, offer an uncomfortable but necessary mirror to both sides of Zambia’s political aisle. For the ruling party, it is a call not to grow complacent. For the opposition, it is a challenge to step out of rhetorical battles and build real, on-the-ground political machinery before the 2026 campaign season is fully underway.

If nothing changes, Zambia may head into the next election not with a contest of ideas but with a quiet, reluctant confirmation of the incumbent. And that, more than anything, may define the political mood of a country caught between fatigue and frustration.