A Mirror Demographic Approach
By Dr. Field C. Ruwe
Defeating Hichilema Is Defeating Tribalism
Caveat. This article is NOT about fanning the flames of tribal politics; rather, it seeks to demonstrate an effective and peaceful approach for defeating President Hakainde Hichilema in August.
It employs the “shift of conflict axis” theory to turn Hichilema’s own tribalist strategy against him. It shows that by leveraging Hichilema’s “Us vs Them” ethnic demographics, a coalition of the opposition can formulate its own demographic strategy, potentially resulting in his defeat.
Historical Background: The “NEVER AGAIN” Conviction
As a researcher and historian, I record painful and uncomfortable truths. On Thursday, August 13, 2026, election day, the majority of 2.6 million highly motivated voters from the Tonga tribe, along with their affiliates, will stand in long lines to cast their votes for Hichilema.
For many, their decision will not stem from his performance, but rather from a steadfast belief in a “NEVER AGAIN” conviction. Human nature indicates that those who experience significant liberation will instinctively seek to protect it by any means necessary.
Tonga Liberation Day
August 24, 2021 felt like “Tonga Liberation Day.” Tongas describe the day as surreal, with those in villages dancing and shedding tears, and those in towns partying after the results were announced. Hichilema’s inauguration represented a significant milestone and a symbol of liberation from years of political marginalization and vilification endured under six successive administrations.
Human evolutionary biology has endowed us with a robust taste for liberation to safeguard our survival. It is this innate drive that has propelled Hichilema into tribal politics. Once he realized he was the one who had delivered liberation to the Tongas, his evolutionary switch flipped into a “Never Again” mode. It was on the conviction of the “Never Again” solemn pledge that Hichilema took the oath of office, to avert the dreadful Tonga experience instigated by the Choma Declaration of 1973.
The Choma Declaration
Tonga elders recount how, during the struggle for independence, the word “Bamunyama” (bloodsuckers) was weaponized by Kaunda and his UNIP followers to politically isolate and demonize Harry Mwaanga Nkumbula’s ANC, which was predominantly Tonga, causing deep-seated colonial trauma in many who, on June 27, 1973 shed tears.
For the Tongas and their affiliates, June 27, 1973, is a day that lives in infamy. It is a day that many remember as “Doomday.” On this fateful day, a dark cloud descended upon Southern Province when Kaunda (UNIP) and Nkumbula (ANC) signed the Choma Declaration, creating a one-party state under Kaunda. With the stroke of a pen, Kaunda effectively destroyed the ANC.
That Hichilema and his contemporaries grew up hating Kaunda is rooted in such lived stories. Growing up, they saw for themselves how the Southern Province was economically and politically sidelined by the Kaunda regime, a consequence of the ANC’s legacy of opposition.
Eternal Power: Hichilema’s Imingalato (Dribbling)
It is the fear of a recurrence that Hichilema has indicated he desires to be Zambia’s inaugural life president. During a rally in Kalomo on May 22, 2025, he informed his supporters that he was “permanently seated on the throne of the presidency.” With this perspective, he has adeptly utilized the Bantu Botatwe to advance his political goals and personal ambitions.
This is evident in the ethnic appointments made within his cabinet, the Justice Department, the police force, the army, and the civil service; a strategy that Cornelius Mweetwa intimates as the initial phase of imingalato (dribbling).
On December 27, 2025, Mweetwa, who serves as the Minister of Information and Media and the Chief Government Spokesman, announced that the UPND was prepared to initiate a new phase of “imingalato.” Mweetwa deliberately employed the term “imingalato,” which translates to dribbling in the Bemba language. His intention was to convey to the Bembas that it was the Tongas’ turn to navigate their way through Zambian politics. In doing so, Mweetwa depicted tribalism as an “Us versus Them” antagonistic sentiment.
The second phase of “imingalato” entailed altering the Constitution under the guise of “addressing lacunae” (legal gaps), which led Parliament to approve Amendment Bill 7 of 2025. This legislation brought about extensive modifications to Zambia’s electoral system in preparation for the 2026 General Elections. Through such dribbling (imingalato), Hichilema has effectively locked in the Bantu Botatwe bloc votes.
With merely two months left before the elections, Hichilema is set to contest, fully aware of his solid support from his ethnic geopolitical base in the Southern and Central provinces, which are part of the Bantu Botatwe. He understands that the majority of around 2.6 million Tongas; 440,000 Lambas; 310,000 Lenjes; 215,000 Ilas; 75,000 Solis; 69,000 Totelas; 58,000 Salas; and 17,000 Fwes (Mafwe), totaling 3,709,000, are prepared to endorse him for a second term.
Shift the Conflict Axis: Flipping the “Us vs Them” Dynamic
The preceding ethnic demographic statistics render it nearly impossible for any single party to defeat Hichilema. Political strategists assert that the potent strategy to defeat a widely supported tribalist incumbent is the mirroring of the “Us vs Them” dynamic, which involves using his tribalism against him demographically and presenting it as an assault on Zambia’s democratic principles.
Considering that Hichilema’s tribalism is impacting elections more than policy, to the extent that some members of his tribe are discontented, the opposition should redirect his “Us vs Them” dynamic back at him and hold him personally accountable. This strategy avoids the broad characterization of all Tongas and their supporters as tribalists.
In this case, the opposition’s focus must extend beyond economic stagnation, corruption, unemployment, load shedding, and fuel prices to incorporating tribal demographics as a major factor influencing electoral outcomes in this year’s election. This means that, like Bantu Botatwe, the opposition must equally secure co-ethnic census data with the Bemba tribe’s geopolitical regions in the Northern and Luapula Provinces, which are home to 4,000,000 people.
And like Bantu Botatwe, the opposition must create its own affiliates from tribes that have voted with the Bembas in past elections: 2,200,00 Nyanja-Chewas; 1,000,000 Nsengas; 700,000 Ngonis; 840,000 Tumbukas; 456, 000 Mambwes; 169,000 Namwangas, and other associates who, when added to the Bemba population, result in a cumulative total of more than 9,365,000.
The combined total of the Bemba and their affiliates positions the opposition at more than 5 million votes ahead of the Tongas and their affiliates. When considering the populations of the Copperbelt, which stands at 2,575,539, and Lusaka, with 3,079,964 residents, the Bemba-led opposition is in a favorable position.
Nevertheless, it requires a coalition of parties and individuals who can leverage demographic strengths to enhance voter turnout in the strongholds of the Bemba and their affiliates.
Strategic Execution
Build a Trans-Ethnic Coaltion: It is asserted by political scientists that forming a coalition of the opposition, as the Tonse Alliance has done, is a proven strategy to defeat an incumbent because it unifies diverse groups to maximize political pressure.
Role of Alliance Leader: A coalition leader defeats Hichilema by uniting diverse ethnic factions. He must shift the national narrative from its identity to shared economic issues and secure the electoral process against manipulation.
In defeating Hichilema, the leader of the alliance must demonstrate how Hichilema’s “Us versus Them,” embodies political and ethnic vengeance, and portray him as a president who is promoting discord and laying the foundation for potential future conflicts. He must describe to voters how Hichilema’s tribalism has become the bane of Zambia.
The leader must courageously tell voters that Hichilema has systematically favored individuals from the southern, central, western, and northwestern regions of Zambia for strategic government roles. In the end, he must charge Hichilema with nepotism, tribalism, and regionalism, employed as a calculated exploitation of tribal identity to garner votes and create regional divisions on a civil war scale.
Inner Circle and Foot Soldiers: The coalition’s inner circle and members must reach populations across the country. They must tie the resurgence of tribalism to economic frustrations and must demonstrate how, as a result, poverty remains widespread, with 60% of Zambians living below the poverty line. They must build tailored messaging targeting young voters in both rural and urban areas.
Onus Task: The months of June and July should be used to illustrate how, over the past five years, Hichilema’s tribalism has served as a significant predictor of emotional polarization, institutional distrust, and a decline in democratic values.
The coalition must convince voters that Hichilema is jeopardizing the nation by dismantling the historical principle of “One Zambia, One Nation,” and infringing upon constitutional safeguards by breaching legal standards to retain authority. In this context, “One Zambia, One Nation” ought to be a unifying slogan at all public events.
The Battle of Leadership Is the Failure of the Coalition: The monetary benefits associated with the presidency render the formation of a successful coalition in Zambia both mentally and politically arduous.
At present, we are observing the total disintegration of the opposition, which is a result of severe personal conflicts, ideological divergences, and leadership disputes.
Some opposition leaders are already acting like micro-autocrats within their respective parties, believing that no one else is fit to lead the coalition except themselves. Again, NO SINGLE PARTY WILL OVERCOME HICHILEMA. Failure to unite essentially grants him victory on a silver platter, and Zambia faces a grim future.
Author is a Doctor of Education and a scholar-practitioner, affiliated with Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
EDITOR’S NOTE:
The views, opinions, claims and conclusions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position, policies or views of Lusaka Times, its editors, management, contributors or affiliates. The article is published as a contribution to public discourse and political commentary. Responsibility for the accuracy of the opinions and interpretations contained herein rests entirely with the author
Not keen on this chap BUT love the heading xx
Tribalism, the curse of the bantu tribes in all of Africa,
Now it is a Zimbabwean. Otherwise it is a Nigerian. In some cases, it is a Congolese. Zambians a re like dumb people who cannot speak for themselves.
Yeah people want to identify themselves as a group. Evolution theory explains that’s for survival for social beings like people, Zebras, lions, etc.
So when you aren’t surrounded by those you know you feel not only lonely but vulnerable.
However, as a human you have more intelligence than animals so you should know that the trick is to adapt and you will survive. If you don’t you will be exterminated.
Ok, on a serious note, let me counter Dr Ruwe’s arguments with alternative facts. Some of us do not have the clout to write articles that Lusaka Times can dare to publish. LT only publishes anti-Zambian government articles. The Southern Province was NEVER neglected by KK. It was a war zone because of liberation wars and anyone who dared to build a resort on the Zambezi was shot at by Rhodesian rebel soldiers. KK handed over UNIP to Kebby Musokotwane. Tell me where Kebby came from? The Tongas were always very part and parcel of the woof and warp of the Zambian fabric UNTIL Edgar Chagwa Lungu came. ECL is 100% responsible for the tribalism in Zambia today. I know Tongas who contracts were never renewed, who were recalled from diplomatic service etc. STOP BLAMING THE VICTIMS.
Failed Ruwe is not an historian and definitely not a researcher.I have known him to be a broadcasting comedian who learnt about degrees in old age.He pushes utter subjective trash
One contradiction among many. HH has brought tribalism, but you go on to mention tribes that have voted with the Bembas in the past. The Choma declaration did not only annoy the Tongas; in fact, history tells us it annoyed Kapwepwe, who was Bemba, more than anyone else. Ba Ruwe, please let’s leave these tribal talk!
TRIBALISM SHOULD NOT BE PRACTICED PER SE HOWEVER EVEN IN MIXED MARRIAGES THERE IS TRIBALISM BETWEEN HUSBAND AND WIFE. DURING 2021 MY OWN WIFE REALIGNED HERSELF TO HH BEING BANTUBOTATWE/TONGA.
IT’S STATED IN HISTORY OF AFRICA NO MATTER HOW EDUCATED WE ARE WE STILL WILL VOTE AND POINT TO OUR OWN ORIGIN I.E TRIBE HENCE SOME REGIONS HAVE EVEN EXCLUDED PEOPLE OTHER REGION -CHOKWE, LAMBA LIMA COMPLAINT TO UPND SOUTHERN PROVINCE HAS BECOME A NO AREA UNLESS YOU ARE IDENTIFIED AS TONGA.
HH’S ASSET IS THE REGION GROUPING.
SO FOR FAIRNESS WHETHER OF POVERTY /HUNGER LET THE OPPOSTION UNITE AS DID IN 1991 WHEN MMD CAME TO DEFEAT KK TO CONTINUE OUR ONE ZAMBIA ONE NATION AS NOT DOING SO WILL LEAD THE COUNTRY INTO FURTHER DIVISION, BE PREPARED TO BE LED IN ORDER TO LEAD.
The president is Tonga/ Ila but isn’t the vice president Bemba? Doesn’t this show that the president is being reasonable by at least appeasing and balancing tribal influence? This is something that the previous government wouldn’t have dared done, Zambia really needs to get over this archaic way of thinking that only a certain tribe or tribes are fit to rule, after all most of us are a mosaic or mixture of tribes but politicians are trying to divide us.
Well even Lungu a Nsenga, had a Lozi veepee so why is he being tribalised? It’s just our human penchance for looking for a scapegoat when we fail in our personal endeavors.
When this fake scapegoat becomes the driving force for political appointments and ideologies it becomes dangerous. The NAZIS thought the jews were to blame for many social or class problems wrongly but they went ahead to kill the jews.
i fully support Musaninyaze statement. PF was not tribal until Lungu took over the presidency of Zambia. 90% of the so-called Zambezi region tribes were excluded from the government. HH made it clear that if he wins government, they will get their jobs back. Government jobs and contracts were given to Easterners and Northerners. With due respect, Lungu was corrupted. Violence was the order of the day. we were at the edger of genocide like in Rwanda.
Let’s try to be fair: who marginalized their own people that Lungu tried to or worked with? Also, look closely look at ECL’s team, and have your facts before you say Government jobs and contracts were given to Easterners. In dealing with sensitive issues, research and analyze the facts, else do not make guessed and dangerously outrageous statements.
Lungu tried to bring Tongas into his cabinet but HH ostracized these appointees because he wanted to cement a Tonga following. His logic being if every Tonga voted for him and minorities joined him a majority vote could be attained
Field Ruwe, you call yourself ” Researcher & Historian”??
You are just a tribal- baiting bigot . Good luck on your demented ideas on defeating HH cos he is resoundingly bouncing back !
Opposition alliance was achieved at a high price. The high price included late kick off and loss of an icon in ECL. Now, thanks to a listening government, the way to opposition alliance victory has been cleared. BM versus HH is a democratic choice. Enjoy it
@Adviser- it’s the primitives who want to tribalise issues and sadly, we are allowing them! Me as a copperbelt citizen will tell you, in Kitwe, Mufulira, Chingola, Ndola, etc we never know what tribe my drinking mate or girlfriend is. We dont bother. Just look at our political representatives.
But these guys from rural Zambia even when I was at college they grouped themselves in tribal camps. You are retrogressing mother Zambia!
what most of our rural population on LT can’t understand is that we are tribeless. You people forced Lungu to Easternize He was a Chimwemwe boy and spoke broken Nsenga but smooth Kitwe Bemba which even Chitimukulu can’t speak.
Iwe ka MuZedian
Just this post exposes you as a tribal bigot .This tribal thing is so ingrained in some of you, you don’t even know it.Please, change and widen your social network.Poverty of mind is real,Ka!?
If Field Ruwe is a researcher in history, where’s his research? How can a researcher fail to cite any authorities? He did his secondary education in Chingola and flunked his O-levels.