Munshya says crowds won’t save opposition, backs HH for victory

Rev. Dr. Elias Munshya has dismissed opposition rally crowds as a weak measure of electoral strength, insisting President Hakainde Hichilema remains on course to win the election against a divided field led by Brian Mundubile and Makebi Zulu.

Writing in a commentary titled “Of Crowds and Clowns,” Munshya said nothing on the ground shows opposition strength capable of unseating the President. His comments land amid growing attention on rallies organised by opposition parties tied to Mundubile and Zulu.

“HH is winning this election,” he wrote. “All indicators point to that fact. There is nothing on the ground that shows opposition strength capable of unseating such a popular incumbent.”

Munshya acknowledged the opposition leaders have drawn sizeable turnouts, but said those crowds fall short of the gatherings assembled by previous opposition figures who went on to win the presidency. He named Kenneth Kaunda, Frederick Chiluba, Michael Sata and Hichilema himself, during his years in opposition, as leaders who drew far bigger crowds.

“I am not saying Koloboi has no crowds,” he wrote.

“I am saying Koloboi’s crowds are small. Small by the standard of every opposition leader who ever won the presidency.”

Much of his commentary took aim at what he called the opposition’s reliance on crowd optics. He said measuring political strength through rally attendance alone is a flawed approach that favours incumbents, who typically have greater capacity to mobilise supporters and stage large events. Opposition movements, he said, should focus less on crowd size and more on building structures that convert support into votes.

Grassroots organisation ran through the commentary as a central theme. Munshya said the ruling party holds a major advantage through established campaign structures, parliamentary candidates and councillors deployed across most of the country. UPND, he said, has fielded candidates in constituencies, districts and wards nationwide, building a network that can sustain a coordinated campaign, while opposition formations have not matched that candidate coverage.

“If the ground game is to predict anything clearly, the incumbent HH has it,” he wrote.

Munshya said elections are won through direct voter engagement, not photographs, social media impressions or aerial shots of rallies. Successful campaigns, he said, rest on local mobilisation, community engagement and sustained contact with voters.

“A strong ground operation is what will deliver this election,” he stated.

“Not photographs. Not drone shots. Boots in the wards. Hands shaking hands. Names on ballots.”

His remarks stand as one of the firmest pushbacks yet against opposition claims that recent rallies signal a shift in public sentiment. Opposition supporters have pointed to crowd attendance as evidence of growing momentum, while ruling party supporters maintain that organisational capacity and nationwide structures offer a more reliable measure of strength.

Munshya also cautioned UPND supporters against complacency despite his confidence in the President’s prospects. He said political success rests on discipline, consistency and continued engagement at grassroots level. Drawing on the story of David and Goliath, he said victories come from focus and preparation, not assumptions of inevitability.

“David did not win by underestimation,” he wrote.

“David won because he stayed focused, stayed humble, and struck with precision, ward by ward.”

He urged ruling party supporters to stay committed to local campaigning and voter mobilisation rather than react to opposition displays of confidence.

Two readings of campaign strength now sit side by side in the national conversation. One camp treats large crowds as proof of enthusiasm and rising support. The other treats organisational strength, candidate deployment and grassroots mobilisation as the factors most likely to decide the outcome.

Campaign activity continues across the country as both camps press their case. The result will be settled when ballots are cast.