On December 1, 2011, just after three months in power, the King Cobra led-PF government proudly announced The Technical Committee on drafting the people driven national Constitution. The Technical Committee’s was a result of the PF and UNDP victory on blocking the MMD-led draft Constitution in Parliament in 2011. Three years later, Zambians are wondering why King Cobra, the man of action, has refused to release the draft constitution, and has become so arrogant about it.
In my book, Raised Hopes, Shattered dreams, I make the case that African democracy will not develop without a stable constitution. I argue that despite the many attempts to draft stable constitutions, in most African countries, new constitutions are meant to enhance the powers of the president and his ruling party. Zambia, for instance, has under gone a number of constitutional reviews since independence: the Mainza Chona in 1973, the Patrick Mvunga in 1991, the John Mwanakatwe in 1996, and the Willa Mung’omba in 2005 and now the P.F.
President Kaunda was responsible for the first two, while the successive reigns of Frederick Chiluba and Levy Mwanawasa led to the 1996 and 2005 constitutional review processes respectively. Mwanawasa began this process, and Rupiya Banda inherited the process until its rejection in 2011. Since these constitutions serve the interests of the president and his party, they have short lifespan despite costing us billions of Kwachas, which would save many lives at U.T.H.
Since the president’s party determines what constitutes the new constitution and the constitution-making process, Zambian constitutions are usually biased to the party in power. As the rejection of the 2011 draft constitution revealed, the national constitution should be above party interests. Sadly this is the very reason why President Sata hates the new constitution. It does not work to his advantage.
A new Constitution will not benefit Sata
King Cobra knows too well that he has lost popularity on many fronts as well as created many enemies in the opposition. He also knows that his second term hangs on the new constitution—how can he give Zambians a new constitution while securing his chance of winning the 2016 elections? Should he allow the constitution debates too early, it will be passed before 2016—making it the basis of the 2016 elections. This is Sata’s biggest fear since the new constitution states: “Elections to the office of President shall be conducted directly on the basis of a majoritarian system, where the winning candidate must receive not less than fifty percent plus one vote of the valid votes cast.” It is this article that is giving King Cobra sleepless nights.
King Cobra knows that since the return to multi-party democracy, no President has been elected with 50% of the total vote cast-let alone 50+1 aside from Chiluba’s 1991, and the controversial 1996 elections. At the time of his highest popularity, King Cobra only managed to get 42.24%. So he is aware that should we have a re-run, the opposition is likely to join hands to remove him from power—thereby sending him and his cadres to jail in old age.
How Sata may play the cards to his favor
Here, his strategy is to delay the constitution as much as possible. In this scenario, the president would love to have the referendum during the 2016 elections. This argument will be highly convincing since it will be defended on the altar of economics—it’s cheaper to hold two elections at once. The sad thing is that the 2016 elections will then be held under the current constitution—making it possible for him to win with a very small margin.
The second scenario is where he would let it go to parliament and be voted on. To do this, President Sata has to ensure that he has the majority votes to reject or to remove the 50 + 1 article from the new constitution—which is possible since he has more MPs.
The final scenario is where President Sata dissolves the parliament, and then calls for early elections, just as Kaunda did in 1968. This scenario is likely—especially as demands for the new constitution increase in the nation. Whereas it is tempting to celebrate this move, the new elections will be held under the old constitution. This situation will give Sata his second term—making it possible for him to remain in power for at least 8 years, which is not bad for the old man.
The way forward
No party will win the 2016 presidency if we demand 50+1; and here is Sata’s salvation or curse. Hold the joint referendum and general election in 2016—King COBRA gets his second term with less than 30 percent –knowing too well that the opposition will share the remaining 70 percent. Allow it—he falls since the opposition is likely to unite against its common enemy—the Patriotic Front. So rather than demanding the new constitution, we should defend the 50+1 at all costs; we should insist that even if the president dissolves the parliament—the 50+1 clause will be the basis for the 2016 elections. Failure to do so, King cobra will be biting us until 2021–the scandal mother Zambia cannot afford!
By Rev. Canon Dr. Kapya John Kaoma
