By Wesley Ngwenya
Over the last few weeks, I have been looking back at the last decade particularly on the impact it has had on the Zambian marketplace. The last ten years, in Zambia, has seen a huge investment in real estate and property development. Zambia now booms with many shopping complexes all over the country. Housing estates all around Lusaka are equally booming.
Perhaps, another huge economic development that is new in Zambia is the emergence of banks and other micro lending institutions. In 2009 alone, Zambia saw five new commercial banks on the market—the largest number of new banks in a single year. Micro lending institutions continue to be on the rise, as a result this is creating a new need on the market—financial advisory and debt collection. Here are business opportunities to explore in Zambia. I have already written comprehensive business plans on this. Anyone interested?
Chinese investment in Zambia increased significantly in the last 10 years. It is estimated that by the end of 2008, Chinese investment in Zambia reached $800 million, representing a growth of over 35 percent as compared to the previous years. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from China is likely to double if not triple in the next 10 years. Therefore, the next decade will continue to see an increase in Chinese investors looking for opportunities in agriculture, tourism, manufacturing and mining sectors.
The last ten years have all not been uphill. There have been a few downturns—Zambia was hit with the recent global economic crisis which saw copper prices fall. As a result, mining companies closed including other supporting industries. This meant little or no revenue for the government which strongly depends on taxing mining companies. Thankfully, the copper prices have risen again. However, it is now time the Zambian government explored other options of raising revenue.
In the next ten years there will be a huge increase in food production provided the government creates the right environment and implements the right policies. There is a sense of urgency for many Zambians who are involved in farming, food preservation and using new and more productive farming methods. In addition, many international organizations are at our mercy and investing hugely in this department. Zambia has all the necessary resources to make it the food basket for the southern region by 2020.
Another undoubtedly likely boom in Zambia is going to the internet use. Currently, high speed internet in Africa is at about 2% and perhaps lower in Zambia. The fiber optic cable from East Africa will bring about a big change in the way the internet will be used. With high speed internet we will see many households having internet in their homes. Therefore, many businesses will begin to align themselves on the web so as to target the users. Internet advertising will likely increase since it is cheaper, more targeted and easily updated.
Although many things will become more and more efficient and even cheaper I have big reservations for the transportation industry. At the rate we are going, in this country, we shall continue paying heavily on transportation and communication. There is not much investment on roads, railway lines and other forms of transportation even when there will be an additional million cars in the decade. This will just mean transportation will become slower and more expensive.
In Zambia, there are mainly three mobile phone service providers. The market is controlled by these three and new entrants into the market face insurmountable challenges. In this decade, the phone companies will continue reaping huge profits. There may be some efficiency one way or the other as far as a variety of services offered by these companies but they will come with a price. Users will continue paying handsomely throughout the decade provided there are no new entrants on the market.
It is not easy to predict on what the economy will look like in the next ten years because the activities of the government are not very clear. Government has not sold its policies to the Zambians and we are therefore left to wonder. However, if we are to make predictions on what the next ten years will be like, it will purely be based on history—what has been happening previously. Based on this we can predict some slow growth if copper prices continue to rise.
Finally, the next ten years present clear and big challenges for our leaders. We can make this decade to be the turnaround decade. A decade when turned tables for the millions living in poverty. A decade when we turned tables for the struggling entrepreneur. A decade when we turned tables for many farmers. A decade when we made the right decision that changed and improved our lifestyle here in Zambia. Let us make this decade our decade.
