Zambia should reduce annual inflation to five percent in 2007 from 8.2 percent the previous year, aided by higher global metal prices and a domestic food surplus, the central bank said on Tuesday.
Bank of Zambia (BoZ) governor Caleb Fundanga also said the country’s economic indicators were positive ahead of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) review of performance in the third quarter of the year.
Fundanga said inflationary pressures would ease on the back of a build-up in strategic food reserves, exchange rate stability due to increased foreign exchange earnings mainly from copper, as well as lower money supply growth in the first half of the year.
“We should be able to attain the 5.0 percent inflation target because the economic conditions are favourable,” Fundanga told Reuters, warning however that higher world oil prices might add some pressure.
The IMF review will determine whether the global fund endorses a new poverty reduction growth facility (PRGF) when the current $320 million lending programme agreed in June 2004 expires in September.
Zambian officials are optimistic that favourable economic developments in the southern Africa country augur well for a fresh PRGF loan.
Annual inflation quickened to 11.2 percent in July from 11.1 but is expected to progressively slow down in the second half of the year as domestic maize prices decline on improved supply.
Gross domestic product expansion is seen higher at 6.0 percent in 2007 from 5.8 percent the previous year.
In a separate statement, Fundanga said domestic credit declined by 7.7 percent to 5,996 billion Zambian kwacha in the second quarter of 2007, due to a 31.7 percent decline in lending to the central government.
The kwacha currency, which depreciated by 3.0 percent in the first three months of the year, had gained 8.4 percent to 3,904 versus the U.S dollar due to increased supply of foreign exchange on the market during the second quarter, he added.
“The merchandise earnings rose to $1,037.2 million in the second quarter of 2007 from $822.3 million in the first quarter. This was mainly explained by buoyant growth in both metal and non-metal export earnings,” Fundanga said.
The country’s balance of payments surplus had risen to $106.8 million in June from $70.4 million in March, while a $254.9 million trade surplus was recorded, he added.