By Wilson Musha-Shatala
Let me salute Field Ruwe for his insightful writings. Partly my contributions have been inspired by his expressed thoughts on several matters. Last week I discussed why Justice Minister Wynter Kabimba cannot be a good President for Zambia. My next epistle will analyse a thIrd contender within the rank and file of PF.
Back to my discussion today…
What is a Political Dynasty?
A “Dynasty” is defined as a succession of rulers from the same family or line; or a family or group that maintains power for several generations. A Political Dynasty entails the “concentration, consolidation, or perpetuation of public office and political power by persons related to one another” i.e. a political dynasty controlling the state, rather than the other way round. In truth, “Political Dynasties” is a term that is as old as politics itself. For the ancient civilizations their rulers were concerned with maintaining their legacy, the crown would be passed from parent to child to ensure the family name continues on down the ages. When the Western world talks about “Political Dynasties” they refer to them as “misappropriation of power” by family. In American politics, “dynasty” is a dirty word. The Founding Fathers, after all, went on record as wholeheartedly objecting to power flowing through blood rather than ballot, declaring in the U.S. Constitution that “no title of nobility shall be granted by the United States.” The narrative of one of the country’s most prominent political families, the Kennedys, even avoids the dreaded d-word. Rather than referring to the New England clan as a dynasty, it’s romantically painted as Camelot.
Mulenga Sata as new PF presidential candidate?
With increased speculation about the health and fitness of President Sata, the ruling Patriotic Front (PF) has been gripped with rumours of succession battles on potential leaders to succeed president Sata. While PF SG Wynter Kabimba has outpaced himself and monopolized so much political power and trying to get rid of potential rivals for power like former defence minister Geoffrey Mwamba Bwalya (GBM) and former foreign affairs minister Given Lubinda, PF insiders are talking about a surprise “political dynasty” in the making – the possibility of President Sata’s son Lusaka Mayor Mulenga Sata succeeding his father. Suspicions about a Mulenga Sata presidential candidacy have been heightened by his recent “meteoric” rise in power. After the 2011 elections he was an elected PF ward councilor and had earned his living through selling dogs. In the early days of PF in power, he was initially elected as Deputy Mayor of Lusaka, and following the anti Wynter Kabimba demonstrations and dethroning of Lusaka district chairman Godwin Banda he went through unopposed as Lusaka PF District Chairman. Again the President’s son was elected new Lusaka Mayor after going through unopposed. A few months ago Mulenga Sata was elected national president of the Local Government Association of Zambia (LGAZ) after all PF challengers withdrew at the last minute and he then beat his rival, former Livingstone mayor Aggrey Njekwa from United Party for National Development (UPND) by 11 votes.
It is noteworthy that within PF, Mulenga Sata’s opponents for all elected positions have had to mysteriously withdraw from challenging him, a fact that shows the Sata Dynasty as the “owners” of PF. Hence, everyone has no choice but to make way for the King Cobra’s son, “Prince Cobra.” It can be speculated that during the UNIP One Party Dictatorship former President Kaunda also embarked on a futile mission to groom one of his sons as “heir to the throne” when he put all his sons in politics– Panji, Waza, Kaweche and late Wezi – who were either district governors, MPs or senior UNIP leaders. But this “family scheme” could not see the light of day as it was prematurely aborted when KK and UNIP were kicked out of power by MMD in the 1991 multi-party elections. In fact one of KK’s sons Tilyenji is still UNIP president today and the party is dead. One just hopes president Sata is not following KK’s slippery slop.
Vice President Guy Scott, who is in Wynter Kabimba’ s camp, seemed to sense this “family dynasty” and let the cat loose out of the bag when he recently declared that Mulenga Sata was not eligible to stand as president of Zambia because one of his parents was a foreigner. The reaction from Mulenga was sharp and swift, castigating Guy Scott’s divisive leadership and vehemently declaring that both his parents were Zambian, hence he was eligible to stand as president. If indeed this card is in play and Prince Cobra is groomed to take over the family business from King Cobra, then Wynter Kabimba’s political fate is sealed and he may find himself dribbled politically, just likely Sata himself was dribbled by the political engineer late President Chiluba after using Sata to get rid of all potential rivals for power in MMD like Gen Miyanda, late Gen Christon Tembo, Edith Nawakwi, late BY Mwila and others. If president Sata so decides then Wynter Kabimba’s political fate may be sealed and he may be forced to break away from PF to form his reported “4th Republic Party” while Mulenga Sata may take over the reins of power in PF backed by his father and senior PF officials loyal to President Sata.
Political Dynasties in a Democracy
Examples of political dynasties abound, but in democracies, unlike dictatorships, the children of former leaders are “self-made” men and women, rather than merely groomed and imposed. They are often elected to power many years after their parents’ rule since they work their way up the political ladder with a lot of ups and downs, thus becoming self-made and earning the right to leadership in the eyes of the people rather than just inheriting power through bloodlines like in a monarchy or dictatorship. For example, current Botswana president Gen Ian Khama, son of founding president Sir Seretse Khama, only became president some 28 years after his father’s death after a very successful career as traditional leader, army commander and politician. The same is true of Kenya’s president Uhuru Kenyatta, son of first president Jomo Kenyatta, who only became president in 2013, some 34 years since his father died. In meantime, he had undergone his own transformation as a successful businessman and launched a political career in which he lost elections numerous times. In the USA, two sons of former presidents later went on to be elected presidents themselves – after being self-made and with years apart from their father’s tenures e.g. the Adams and the Bushes. In the 2016 presidential election, a second Clinton and third Bush potentials is in the offing if George’s Bush’s brother Jeb challenges Hilary Clinton. Hilary and Jeb are self-made politicians, with Hilary transforming herself from First Lady to New York Senator, runner up to Obama in the Democratic presidential nomination, and Secretary of State. If she is elected president she will be the most experienced president in US history. Jeb has been a very successful two-term Governor of Florida, like his brother George who was Governor of Texas.
Other famous political dynasties in democratic settings are more common in Asia. In Sri Lanka if you belong to the Wijewardena or the Bandaranaike family you are immediately accepted into the inner politics of the country. In Pakistan, the Bhutto’s in Pakistan have played prominent roles in shaping their political culture. In India, the Nehru-Gandhi family name continues to rule the country, with a few interludes like this year’s election f an opposition prime minister. Mulenga Sata, as a citizen if he is eligible to stand for President, is free to do so democratically and win the trust and confidence of Zambians, rather than merely being imposed on the nation by virtual of sharing bloodlines with his father current president Michael Sata.
Political Dynasties in Dictatorships
By contrast, dictatorships and monarchies are characterized by hereditary family dynasties were children are groomed and merely made to succeed their father leaders immediately upon their demise without working their way and earning the right to national leadership in the eyes of the people. In North Korea, the succession of power from found leader Kim IL-Sung to his son Kim Jong-Il and now to the grandson Kim Jong-Un is a classic example. Other countries ruled by political dynasties have included the Philippines (the Marcos’s and Aquino’s), the al-Assad family in Syria where dictator Hafez al-Assad was succeeded by his son Bashar al-Assad, and in Haiti where former dictator François Duvalier (“Papa Doc’’) was succeeded by his son, Jean-Claude (“Baby Doc”). Usually such societies rot from within and become conflict or war ridden and unstable. Examples of other “anointed sons” who never succeeded their fathers in dictatorships include Saif Gaddafi in Libya who was groomed by his father Muammar Gaddafi as heir apparent. Gadaffi is dead while the son is in prison. In Egypt, Hosni Mubarak had groomed his son Gamal Mubarak as his heir. He was removed from power and both are in prison. In Iraq, Saddam Hussein had groomed his sons Qusay and Uday to take over from him. He was deposed by the US, Saddam was hanged and his sons were killed by US troops.
Why Mulenga Sata immediately Succeeding His father would be a big Mistake
1. Political dynasty is not inherently a good thing as it is often accompanied by picturesque formalities and steeped in custom and tradition. The root of it is the inherited power which the recipients may or may not be able to use responsibly. Mulenga Sata is likely to continue with all the traits and customs of his father’s governance style which may not suit the direction Zambia needs to go. The country would be frozen in time. Research in political economy emphasizes the tendency of elites to persist and reproduce their power over time, potentially undermining the effectiveness of institutional reforms.
2. Political dynasties aren’t necessarily good things as policies can get old and stale rather than having them change with the times. Mulenga Sata is likely to see himself as merely sustaining the status quo of his father’s policies, good or bad, since he will need to cover the “tracks” of the old man by any means necessary. Political dynasty is not good because it is very likely to form a dictatorship since it is already decided the member or the son of the person ruling will be the next head of government. Mulenga Sata would owe more allegiance to his hereditary roots than to the people in PF or Zambia, the very roots of dictatorship. The “My Party” syndrome is what rules all dictatorships and shadowy structures like the Mob / Mafia.
3. Reduced Meritocracy and increased Mediocrity: A political dynasty like any other corporation has a boss and relatives of the boss, the line of thought is pretty much the same, if an individual in a particular party has conflicting views he should go and make his own political party. In a political dynasty the only flaw is that there is little meritocracy. This type of dynastic government will be nudge in increasing corruption since the son will have to prioritize” covering dad’s tracks.
” Political Dynasty + Business Dynasty + Corruption = Poverty
Conclusion
Imposing Mulenga Sata as a PF or republican president is likely to cause a lot of opposition and rebellion within PF and the country since Zambians are not “dynastic” by nature. But if Mulenga Sata truly wins the hearts and minds of Zambians through his exemplary performance as Lusaka Mayor or MP for example, then he will have earned the right to be elected president in the eyes of the majority of Zambians. Otherwise his imposition may mark the beginning of the end of the PF and the risk of losing power to the opposition is very high if there is a rebellion within the party. It is also very doubtful whether Mulenga Sata’s candidature for presidency would appeal to majority of Zambians. I’d urge President Sata to resist the temptation of “imposing” his son as PF leader “succeeding” him directly.
Zambians may not take kindly to any overt transfer of power “within the family.”
Ba Wilson Musha-Shatala you are certainly not in the refined prose or league of the ‘Field Ruwe writing style’ and you dont bring anything new to the table, but you certainly deduce a very important lesson- without being self made- Mulenga Sata (now AKA Baby Cobra) stands no chance in the Zambian political arena. Although also long, I do like the fact that you stress on dynasties that have been successful (re Kennedy-Bush) to name a few of the more successful one! Others have been a debacle- Marcos, Gandhi. However, we have to stamp out even the thought right here in Zambia! period!
The very fact that they are starting to talk about Mulenga now is in itself a sign the man has potential and some people are dead scared somewhere. In one breath you say he dose not qualify to stand and in another you want to say why he shouldn’t stand – make up your mind which is which. Why not talk about Given Lubinda and others. You are dead wrong to analyse Mulenga in that way, Sometimes ones popularity has noting to do with what is going on in the party, if a person is likable and can deliver people will vote for him or her. You may be unpopular in your party leadership ranks but the masses like you. This analysis is like trying to predict the 2014 World cup winners, yes some of you got it right – Brazil!!! Don’t trouble yourselves just wait for the time to come.
COMPARING THE SATA SCENARIO TO KAUNDAZ IS VERY MISPLACED, ONE THING THAT IS VERY CLEAR IS THAT SATA IS STILL POPULAR IN THE PF AND THE MAJORITY ZAMBIANS WOULD ACTUALLY WANT TO SEE HIM RUN FOR TWO TERMS, KAUNDA WAITED FOR TOO LONG, TO A POINT WHERE HE HAD FALLEN OUT OF FAVOUR WITH THE PIPO AND HENCE IT WAS NOT POSSIBLE FOR HIM TO IMPLEMENTT HIS PLAN. WE SHOULD BEAR IN MIND THAT THE ACCEPTANCE OF WHOEVER WILL SUCCEED SATA WILL VERY MUCH DEPEND ON SATA AND WHOEVER SATA ANNOINTS WILL BE THE DEFAULT CANDIDATE. THIS IS THE MORE REASON WHY EVERY ONE IS VERY GLUED TO SATA. SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT IF SATA DECIDES ON MULENGA, THEN WE HAVE THE NEXT PRESIDENT IN THE NAME OF MULENGA
Imposing pipo like Mulenga in Zambia can’t work those are just problems and the pipo talking about him could only be his father not the party so for the party it will break up. The country as we know he is unacceptable WHO IS HE. The sata’s should not force the Zambian pipo on this ONE otherwise it will be a shame.
iwe chi chichi ,speak for yourself and your father,which zambians would want sata to run for two terms?do yourself a favour get on s minibus from anywhere to town or from town if you are in lusaka that is and not mansa,then start praising sata.you will get a feedback .kale babasula abo ulelandapo
We dont even want to hear his name near presidential aspirants.Zambia is not short of Candidates.
Waiting for the next installments of your analysis which should be Christine Kaseba, Given Lubinda, Bob Sichinga, Chishimba Kambwili, Alexander Chikwanda, GBM etc
To begin with Mulenga Sata name is nonentity in the Zambian political cycles.
Mulenga Sata’s name is indeed only prompted by attempts of political-dynasty in what will be the shortest term rule of a political party in the history of Zambia.
In agreeing with the author, matrix dynamics of power struggle is currently at play within PF party envisaging any definite outcome from it. Whatever the outcome will be will spell doom for the entire PF party and beginning of rivalry whose off shoots will spread to original core financiers having a stake in it. At this stage Mulenga Sata will be spectator (dog sales contributed nothing to the formation and strength of PF).
“He who thinks is raising a mound may only in reality be digging a pit for himself”.
BOZA IWE ULABEJA
Edgar Lungu should also be analysed
@THE REAL ISSUE: What do you want to analyse? Tujilijili under the official table, guys zambia is not short of leaders
Let Guy Scott stand. scrap your constitution so that you can have a white man to rule over you
My friend, Guy Scott is not any better than Sata in terms of depth of analysis of issues. For goodness sake, forget this Scott of yours. If he was intelligent, how did he manage to be “birds of the same feathers” with Sata for such a long time… to date? His PhD is purely out of scramming not intelligence and analytical thinking…
I rest my case.
A white man yes! But muzungu opusa?
Write another one titled “Why Given Lubinda is good for Zambia”
No, why HH is good for Zambia
Names like Khama of Botswana, Uhuru KENYATA ring bells in my mind. Is appointing a son to take over in and by itself a wrong idea?
Yes it is. The so called appointed son becomes a defacto King who will also appoint his own son. This is how feudalism starts. In the end it will become a tradition like in North Korea and the family starts to claim ownership of the dynasty. So dont even contemplate it because it will be the end of democracy
I second the idea of Guy scott to stand for presidency. Definately the economy will pick up. However racism will increase too. He will easily be accepted in the western word who are the major funders of our budget.
Ba china inferiority complex! white man president in Africa! Zambia is not short of indigenous sons and daughters
Ole…
so what if Scott’s skin is white? If you are talking about an indigenous (Northern Rhodesia) Zambian, Scott is too.
Find another reason why he should not be other than the colour of his skin…
The Sata dynasty is one made of political opportunism i.e adapting actions, decisions to effectiveness regardless of the sacrifice of ethical principles.Do we really need another liar?
Democracy is bout inclusion. If you exclude Mulenga Sata from political activities, then you are a dictator. he is free to contest any position. It is up to the electorate to elect their leader. If it is party leadership, then the party members must choose their leaders.
Your advice should be directed to Mulenga Sata himself so that he can re-contest the two elections he won unopposed due to the fact that potential opponents were intimidated and did not stand.
Mulenga Sata is a nonentity. This article is a waste of time
He is not even qualified why talk about him. He should for the lawvto be changed or fake the nationality of his mother.
Poor Zambia we are actually scraping the bottom of the political barrel. …rise up great Zambia n men and women there is a clear crisis of leadership in the offing do something already
DEMOCRACY ALSO MEANS THAT MULENGA SATA IS FREE TO STAND AND BE SUPPORTED BY ANYBODY. IT IS NOT SATA WHO WILL VOTE FOR HIS SON ALONE. THIS ARTICLE IS NOT BALANCED, JUST WRITTEN OUT OF FEAR. THE MAJORITY WIN BWANA – LEARN THE IMPLICATIONS OF DEMOCRACY.
The only problem of Mulenga Sata is tht HE IS DULL & HAS CHARISMA AT ALL and doesnt appeal NATIONALLY ! He is just one of those quacks.
@Olemezeka. Stop thinking like that. A white person is just as equal to you as a black one. Guy Scot can become president of Zambia and do better than a lot of you indigenous Zambians. In-fact I would propose that all parastatal companies in Zambia be run by two whites on top that is when you can progress as a country. Otherwise we shall just be wallowing in abject poverty. being ruled by a white person now is different from being ruled by a white person then. people have now gone to school, the judiciary is there all necessary frameworks are there and there will be less corruption.
PF is Sata’s party let him hand over to his son if he so wishes, but once that is done he will have to face the likes of HH and Nevers Mumba in the ring. Mulenga will also be troubled by the parentange clause which PF rebels and opposition will capitalise on to make him ineligible to stand as President.
Michael Sata will leave a legacy that is nothing to write home about. Perhaps if King Cobra’s leadership was a great success story then that would have helped to cushion Mulenga’s rise.
As for Winter Kabimba its time to lick his wounds, he had assumed he was like a son to King Cobra for having been close associates for over 30 years.
THIS IS FEAR OF THE UNKNOWN. THE AUTHOR IS ALREADY WETTING HIS PANTS EVEN BEFORE MULENGA ANNOUNCES HIS CANDIDATURE. IT IS THE VOTERS WHO WILL MAKE A PRESIDENT AND NOT SATA. MULENGA IS A ZAMBIAN AND IF HE WANTS TO FOLLOW THE FOOT STEPS OF HIS FATHER LEAVE HIM ALONE YOU ARM-CHAIR CRITIC AND KEEP YOUR MOUTH SHUT. WHY CAN’T YOU THEN GIVE US YOUR SON AND LET US ANALYZE HIM FOR PRESIDENCY. WHAT MATTERS IS THE ACTUAL PERSON WHO IS CHOSEN AS PRESIDENT NOT WHETHER HIS FATHER WAS PRESIDENT OR NOT. SOME PRESIDENTS WHO HAVE NO DYNASTY CONNECTIONS HAVE BEEN HORRIBLE DICTATORS JUST AS SOME DYNASTIC RULERS HAVE BEEN. LET THE PEOPLE CHOOSE THE LEADER THEY WANT. SATA, MULENGA, LUBINDA EVEN HH ETC. THE VOTERS WILL DECIDE. DONT WASTE TIME WRITING IRRELEVANT ANALYSES HERE.
I see no sense in this article apart from fear of unknown.
Its not fear of an Known.Its true that the satan is grooming his son for presidence.The truth how ever is that Sata him self should a point him while a live ,but if he does not do so,Mulenga will be tossed out of the race by those who hate sata intensily in their heart.Its human mind of wanting to put his son to cover up his sins.Remember Gadafi failed despite being powerfull.God is the one who puts kings on the throne.Even a son of a poor farmer in the name of HH can and will be stored on the throne by God who is the great equaliser.
But sure this guy has little analytical capacity. In one breath he wants democracy to thrive while in the other breath he does not want Mulenga Sata to context as president. Mmm ba guy yashani iyi? I think you are just fearing the unknown man. What you should know is that Zambians will vote whom they like. If it is Mulenga Sata, let it be coz it will be a decision of Zambians by Zambians for Zambian.
naimwe basido mweyamba ifya God. people are discussing creation of dynasties and eligibility. That’s why you sexually are assaulting girls and married women in the name of GOD.
I am NOT a supporter of Mulenga sata and I do not know him personally. This article is a bit personal. Has Mulenga sata announced that he will stand for president? I am a bit lost. The author has made reference to selling of dogs for a living by Mulenga sata. The guy was earning a living and did not steal from you (author). HH was selling cattle (so he claims) and now he is a rich man. We the people will VOTE for the next President and in a democracy, one cannot predict the outcome of an election. So bwana if you have a candidate in mind for the next president make sure they file their nomination papers in 2016.