International Trade Consultant Trevor Simumba says the recent spike in international copper prices should not make the Zambian government relax in its pursuit of an economic bail out from the International Monetary Fund.
Mr. Simumba observed that the rise in copper prices could be the reason that the PF Government is now telling off the IMF.
“This is the cause of the sudden short term optimism especially in GRZ hence the “we do not need IMF brigade”. This type of euphoria is the main cause of Zambia’s dismal performance in diversifying our economy,” Mr Simumba said.
Mr Simumba observed that Zambia always ascribe good economic policies as soon as the copper price inches up forgetting that the bulk of the benefit goes to foreign mining companies with very little trickle down into the domestic economy.
He stressed that the Zambian Government has no role in setting the international copper price.
“It has nothing to do with Zambia but all to do with the biggest economy and buyer of Copper in the world China!!! But rather than continue to consolidate our fiscal position our Government will simply praise itself and now suddenly feels they do not need IMF support,” he said.
“Let us be more strategic in our thinking. With higher copper prices let us maximise collection of revenue and let us push the mining companies to settle all its arrears to Zambian suppliers of services and goods.”
Mr Simumba also urged the Zambian government to build foreign exchange reserves and maintain the fiscal consolidation process and ensure better management of spending by Government.
“The price of copper will not remain high for more than a two years and by 2020 may level off again below $7,000 per tonne but still above $6,000. In this regard, Zambian copper exports will continue to enjoy a good price above US$7,000 which is very good and Government should look to increase revenue from the mines by looking at possible increased royalties for instance,” he said.
Mr Simumba said, “We also need to push more investment into the mines to ensure we increase copper output at even lower costs to improve profitability of the mines and hence an increase in tax receipts from the mines.”
It will come.
IMF fortuitously trusts zambia even further since president Lungu ascended to the top and was democratically elected by all Zambians.
Good days are ahead of us
I have a PhD
Visionless Lungu said that PF doesn’t want any help~bailout package~from IMF & can kiss Zambia good bye!
Blind Lungu & his PF banditry ‘chased’ IMF but now begging for more kaloba. Visionless Lungus dictatorship PF plus MMD bandits whom Zambian people kicked out of power in 2011 can’t be trusted with more kaloba from IMF~until the presidential petition is heard whilst Lungu gives power to the speaker, pending a hearing by the con~court according to the constitution.
No kaloba for PF bandits & Lungu’s dictatorship. How much is mealie meal?
The Skeleton Key
Agony is you borrow $30-Billion & Zambians are still destitutes, jobless & hungry.
Even if PF Govt borrows $1-Trillion, Zambians will still be poor.
Zambian voters also need a bailout from PF’s visionless misrule & mismanagement. GDP growth has slowed from 6.4% in 2010 to the current 3%.
Until a Debt Sustainability Assessment is done on Zambia the IMF Board will not approve a Loan to Zambia. Besides with HH in Jail and SOE in place no IMF Money, Donor Aid, Western Loans and Investments will flow to Zambia. Lungu and Mutati want foreign Financial Assistance on their own terms. That will not happen. Without restoring the Rule of Law, Good Governance, respect for Constitutionalism and human rights the Lungu govt will stew in illegality and illegitimacy.
I feel pity for PF .What they don’t know is that there so called president is loner at state house behind the camera.The Guy is a shell of himself.HH is a lot heathier at Mukobeko with a free mind.Lungu is depressed with a lot to worry about.The finger of God will strike and finish of Nebukadnezer at the right time.
Good morning UPNDonkeys. On this beautiful monday morning let me help you to refocus on your singular objective as you seem to be all not knowing where you came from. Dont waste your and everybody else’s wandering in hallucinations. Your objective which you stated at the time underfive replaced Andy was and still remains is to have the first tonga president. All those things “dictatorship, visionless
Lungu, unheard petitions, etc etc” are just donkeys tears. However, my advice is that the Zambian constitution only talks about a Zambian President whether it happens to be a bemba one after another, a Luchazi or an Ila. If you want a tonga president only to rule Zambia you must work hard in parliament to change the constitution. Boycotting parliament or being suspended from it is no way…
……. constitution. Boycotting parliament or being suspended from it is no way to achieving your objective. Burning markets or blocking Eagle 1 just gets underfive and others behind bars. So please dont waste our time and yours crying crocidile tears about petitions, you know what you want and it is not attainable in the next 50 years even if you revert to bemba running mates out of desperation.
Now Zambians dont get.me wrong, I am not saying that all tongas are tribal but the ones in UPNDonkeys party. The Zambian constitution will usher in a tonga president one day nut NOT the UPNDonkey way nut constitutionally Zambians will elect one. And that one WILL NOT be underfive or any UPNDonkey.
The UK is seeking IMF bail out at the moment. That in itself speaks volumes
Terrible my french wine drinking friend i thought this was about economic vision in zambia. Maybe my eyes are failing me but i do not see anything about what you are posting. Terrible no matter what is posted here the international community does its own assessments from staff within zambia and neighboring countrie.
The writer is correct we neeed the IMF bailout. To tnose bloggers who say that IMF is awhite imperialist group aimed at enslaving africans be aware that Zambia is a member of this international financier and we pay dues to them.
Where is this Simumba from. Government has never told IMF off. Not Mutati and not His Excellency the president. If anything they are in the forefront negotiating with IMF.
When the president was answering a question from a journalist he did not say Zambia has stopped talking to IMF. Pls find the article and read it again.
That is the problem with Zambian learned people. They speak of things out of context. The president was answering a question.
@7 Kalesha.. YOU ARE SPOT ON!! That is why in our country people WISH FOR SOMETHING and they GET SOMETHING ELSE!! As you have rightly put it, the President when responding to a Journalist. We have no official position of the President nor the Minister of Finance writing to the IMF telling them to go!! Official communication at state level is not necessary done through newspapers, there are existing channels for that. He said if they do not want us to secure the country then they are free to go. He even added that even the IMF would like to see a peaceful and safe Zambia as they would not like to put money in a country which is going up in flames. The main reason Zambia wants the IMF money is enhance credibility with bilateral and international donors otherwise, the country can get the…
The paid PF rats are up early today….
@7 true HE ECL did not say that we had stopped talking to IMF he said if they dont like what is happenning in zambia we dont need them
Simumba is contradicting himself. Not sure he’s explaining himself well. He has a point but he can’t explain it.
We need to start looking close to home to sort our our financial mess we cant even make money from copper due to bad management! Zccmminerhateskasolo.blogspot.com
Zambia does not need any bailout! Some people amaze me!
Mr Simumba’s economic analysis immensely attempted to put sense into our Govt. Economy Managers. GRZ actually badly needs IMF bail out ASAP! especially given the debt mountain Zambia has, within record time acquired. And owing to reckless mismanagement of resources Zambia is Cash strapped! Yes the marginal Copper price increase could have spurred our Govt Economic Team to be be optimistic. But it must be cautious optimism for God’s sake! Many pieces to the equation are absent and require addressing: Annual Copper production figures not inspiring; remember that ZCCM had hit 1,000,000 mt. then and We are struggling to reach 700,000mt now. What has gone wrong? DRC’s annual figures are around 1,000,000 mt. They surpassed us! The vexing question is why? Without getting into too much…
Overtaxation Mr Simumba isn’t a viable option. Even if Copper prices shot thru the roof, Zamia wouldn’t take advantage as we are struggling with dwindling production! Our
Economy Managers must be well versed in strategic thinking/management to factor in all the pre requisite variables before giving the President half baked economic advice. Found otherwise, only makes him sound laughable and out of tune with economic realities when making serious Economic pronouncements.
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