The Center for Trade Policy and Development (CTPD) has noted with concern the sustained rise in inflation rate over the recent past.
The Inflation rose from 12.5 percent in January 2020 to 21.5 percent in January this year, implying that the cost of presentative consumption bundle has almost doubled in just one year.
CTPD Researcher for Public Finance Wakumelo Mataa recalled in a statement released to ZANIS in Lusaka today that during its last sitting in November 2020, the Bank of Zambia Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) projected inflation to average at 16.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020.
“However, this is less than the actual inflation outcome for the fourth quarter which averaged 18.1 percent, partly reflecting the accommodative policy stance taken by the committee in the previous quarter on one hand, and the weakening of the Kwacha on the other,” he said.
Mr. Mataa noted that while growth concerns have outweighed inflation worries in recent MPC meetings, the current deliberations should be informed by the heightening effect of the continued rise in inflation on the cost of living and doing business in the economy.
“We remain cognizant of the more relaxed stance taken by the MPC over the recent past, as the policy rate was lowered by 350 basis points in 2020, with a view to stir economic activity and support businesses as they were recovering from the down side effects of the lockdown,” he said.
He observed that although the incidence rate of Covid-19 has spiked in the second wave, there has been a radical shift in the response strategy as businesses have found innovative ways of sustaining their operations amidst the pandemic as opposed to closing down.
Mr. Mataa noted that this, coupled with recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) global growth prospects for 2021, has potential to underpin the improvement in domestic economic activity, thereby allowing BoZ some space to focus more on price stability in the medium term.
The Centre for Trade Policy and Development is a not-for–profit, membership based trade policy and development think tank which was established in 1999 and existed as the civil society trade network CSTNZ, until 2009 when it was rebranded as the Centre for Trade Policy and Development CTPD.
The mandate of CTPD is to influence pro-poor trade and investment reforms at national, regional and multilateral levels as well as facilitate the participation of various stakeholders, including member organizations, in ensuring that trade is used as a tool for poverty eradication.
Temwani Nyondo you were right when you said that we were heading for hyper inflation.
Emmanuel Kalota Kivike Patrick Mumba thought I was being unpatriotic
Temwani Nyondo I actually saw this coming. At this time we need the IMF and serious fiscal discipline.
We also need a new government. Its time to accept that PF has failed
Temwani Nyondo we now have to seek spiritual intervention to rescue us.??
Patrick Mumba Is this a spiritual problem or an economic problem??
Emmanuel Kalota Kivike read my comment again
We need to vote boss. This team at the helm are the only ones benefiting from how the country is being managed
Yet Friends Of Pf Are Saying The Economy Is Doing Well
“The more relaxed stance taken by the MPC over the recent past, as the policy rate was lowered by 350 basis points in 2020, with a view to stir economic activity and support businesses as they were recovering from the down side effects of the lockdown.” Can some one break this down into a language we can all understand?
someone has asked a very serious question, WHAT IS THE IMPACT OF DONATIONS BY POLITICIANS ON OUR ECONOMY, HAS ANY ONE GOT STATIS ON THE EMPOWERMENTS THAT THESE POLITICIANS GIVE TO YOUTHS AND MARKETEERS ESPECIALLY DURING CAMPAIGNS?
This country once boosted of zambains who would set up chilimba saving groups to save and later buy an asset they wouldn’t afford using their basic salary, but today under pf zambians have been reduced to forming chilimba to save and buy groceries. WAKE UP MY FELLOW ZAMBIANS FROM YOUR SLUMBER.
Our people don’t eat low inflation numbers. Those theoretical models are only beneficial to crooks like hh who hide behind economic jargon. For pf our priority is people based policy. If we can develop our people while your imaginary inflation rate is 100 we are not bothered.
..”The inflation rate rose from 12.5 per cent in January 2020 to 21.5 per cent in January this year”.
This is runaway inflation.
And Sean Tembo, President of PeP in his media statement observed that under PF,the Zambian economy has shrunk from a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of about US$29 billion in 2011 to a GDP of approximately US$ 19 billion in 2020.
Now this represents a 35 percent contraction in GDP since 2011. Unlike demand-pull inflation which comes with economic growth,Zambia has been struggling with cost-push inflation coupled with negative economic growth,a situation known as Stagflation.
This is nothing. Inflation goes hand in hand with the exchange rate. The higher the exchange rate, the higher the inflation. We are still going higher under this government.