By Kapya Kaoma
O Come! O Come August 12, the long-awaited Zambia’s savior will at last take the throne, and Zambia will finally be free! And why not? Aside from #HH, #TimeforChange, and #Bally, trending on social media, “we want change, ” and, “forward, ” are not only chanted daily but “The Incoming President, ” is the official title for HH. Come August 12, his Excellency, Hakainde Hichilema is the Seventh President of Zambia.
As for PF cadres and politicians, they are spending sleepless nights wondering if they will wake up on August 13 headed to Prison. This would be a self-imposed imprisonment. The PF. Administration is corrupt to the core, the truth even President Lungu himself is ashamed of. It’s cipante pante economic policies have only benefited a “few of us;” the majority only smells bread, fried chicken and admires Shopping Malls, SUVs, Hotels and Restaurants from a distance. New Malls open, but most of us only watch “the owners” spend our monies. Reminiscent of Lazarus in the Bible, we sit by the gates of wealth, and long “to eat what fall from the rich people’s tables.” Like dogs, we roam the streets begging for our rightful share from the national cake–alas, only well connected cadres to get a slice!
Who thought our ancestors would be so generous? The COVID-19 pandemic ravaged the global economy just before casting our vote. With no reserves, and unable to access foreign aid, the economy is at its weakest. With prices doubling everyday, HH has a case to make; the Lungu administration has failed us. Of course, HH won’t magically transform the economy or provide free education. Yes. He is the richest man in Zambia, but running a country is different from running a personal company. Ask Donald Trump. But why should anyone vote for Lungu amidst doubling prices?
The perception of UPND as a Tonga Party and PF as a Bemba Party is the unsaid factor. Many UPND cadres would never vote for PF even if Jesus was its Presidential candidate. Likewise many PF cadres would never vote for UPND even if John the Baptist was its presidential candidate. The reason, the tribe! Economic stress can easily be overshadowed by tribal loyalty. Like race and gender, tribal bias is a subconscious reality that exists in most of us and can be a key driver of decision making. So PF has locked in some tribal votes and so has UPND.
Moreover, smaller parties may tip the election. Unlike previous elections, this election circle has seen great ground game by smaller parties. Their door to door campaign strategies would claim some votes that may make it impossible for UPND to get 50+1. Besides, the caliber of small party candidates is much higher than before. If UPND ignores smaller parties in this election, it would be making a major mistake. It may have gained ground in some areas, but the goal is 50 + 1. Assuming that smaller parties get 10% percent of the total vote, UPND must pray that and PF gets less than 40% to win the election. Should there be a rerun, it would be based on prior working relationships. Currently, the UPND alliance is very weak and made up of PF vomits; the same thing that happened when GBM joined UPND. UPND strategists may have internal data which suggests it would get 50+1 on August 12, 2021, but that is a dangerous strategy when you are running against the incumbent. Besides, other articulate candidates have just begun introducing themselves to Zambians. Since public rallies are outlawed due to COVID-19, these candidates are creating a cognitive dissonance in the electorate as to who to vote for. In the end, some people will vote for them over Lungu and HH.
HH must realize that politics is about common interests; today’s enemies can be tomorrow’s friends. Poor economic conditions usually work to the advantage of the opposition, but UPND is not the only opposition party in this election. Neither is PF the only opponent UPND has to fight–HH is being attacked by other players too.
I know that UPND cadres are worried about the PF rigging the elections. But the easiest way to cheat is to steal votes from smaller parties, who won’t have the interests to contest the results. So to think that UPND would automatically get to Plot 1 because of the poor economy is a big mistake.
Anyway, 2026 is not too far after all.
Nonsensical, never heard something so delusional
Why change what’s working ?
HH has a great chance in 2026. Now is not the time to change what’s working. Such articles brings farce and political instability. Stop ?!
I hold a PhD and I’m only 27
Thanks
BB2014,2016
Dr Mushota you haven’t read the article. And it hasn’t helped that the headline says something not stated in the article. The author goes on to give a sober assessment of who will win the election and HHdoesnt feature there. Come to think of it nor does Edgar Chagwa Lungu so the writer is just indulging in pre-election wish wash that should make him say “I told you so” to every outcome.
Kapya Kaoma my brotrher you have gotten it wrong all together, i don’t think HH stands a chance to win an election this year, dont be so excited by social media political fan base that HH enjoys. This is completely different from what is obtaining on the ground. For your own information expect worse than 2016 results in traditional strongholds of PF such as Luapula, Muchinga, Northern, Eastern, Copperbelt, Lusaaka. In addition to this PF has made inroads in UPND strongholds especially in North Western province. Therefore,the predential electrol vote margin will be wider than 2016. In view of the foregoing am advising you not to be too optimistic of UPND victory that is committing suicide. UPND has never been attractive and appealing politically at nationallevel apart from being a…
Social Media president;HH and UPND are headed for another defeat.
Unbelievable for a reverend living far away to be so detached from reality. Truth of the matter is that there is very little on the ground to suggest HH and his UPND are headed for victory. The PF is actually more organised and have extended their support base. Reverend Kaoma should not be deceived by the social media UPND Propaganda to think UPND is popular on the ground. I have been to many parts of Zambia in the last eight (8) months and people are not as upbeat about HH and UPND as what you hear on social medial. Yes, times are hard but most people on the ground do not see UPND as the alternative. Expect the PF to win by a wider margin than what we saw in 2016. Despite his shortcomings, ECL is a more likeable person than HH, the man with a toothpaste smile.
Yes indeed the in coming President of Social Media not the President of Zambia!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Kapya writes, “The perception of UPND as a Tonga Party and PF as a Bemba Party is the unsaid factor.” For the information of Kapya living far away, PF has never been more a party of choice than it is today. You only have to look at parliamentary candidates to see why. The Munali PF candidate is a northwesternerm (Mr. Samwimbila), Mandevu has young Shakafuswa, a Lenje. Kabwata has another non-Bemba in Danny Yenga. See the influence that the Luvale speaking Joe Malanji has in PF. See how many Luvale speaking peoples PF has adopted in Lukulu (Mr. Mbunji), Zambezi West (Mr. Charles Kakoma) and elsewhere. Also look at the number of new and younger candidates the PF has adopted countrywide. Compare that with the complaints coming from UPND about the imposition of long serving and…
… not-so-popular MPs like Jack Mwimbu (Monze) , Cornelius Mweetwa (Choma), Douglas Syakalima (Chirundu), Garry Nkombo (Mazabuka) to stand in constituencies in UPND strongholds.
If Hichilema wins this year’s election, it’ll be the most boring election victory. That wind of change only exists in the minds of his supporters
Delusional dream….if wishes were horses, hh would win. hh can win if all his cows also vote. The corporate kawalala will b retired from politics for g.
The only Person who can turnaround this Economy and our lives is HH and UPND Alliance. HH has the Economic and Financial know how to fix this Economy. It’s suicidal for Zambians to give another 5 years to the Corrupt, incompetent and clueless Lungu. If this happens People’s lives will be ruined further. HH aka Bally will fix it. The cost of living is biting thru out the Country. Even in PF strongholds people are feeling the pinch with prices rising daily. People are Angry and Hungry for a change of Govt. On August 12 Zambians have a chance to elect the Govt of their choice. The only hope is HH and UPND Alliance. Let’s vote for them to liberate ourselves from ECL and PF Dictatorship. The choice is ours and we must vote wisely on August 12. We must vote for HH and UPND Alliance as if…
Elections are won at the polls but media influence is big on the electorates. Therefore it is important to remain objective in writing. But these days you can tell with 70% certainty who is sponsoring what article. This is the freedom of expression we fought for but let’s use it objectively and without prejudice or favour in the spirit of One Zambia One Nation One People, as we approach Aug 12.
There is this aura of presidential, presidential about Bally.
#kinako
On point KZ is dreaming this election will be close not winning by 80%. Because copperbelt and lsk are no longer pf strongholds. KZ take a refresher course in social studies and civics
What change? is the country in a crisis? the same HAND SHAKE CHIKUBOKO will ruin our country country to the core just like he did to the mines. Theres nothing he says to convince me how he will change the economy NI BLUH BLUH BLUH if anything he is the chipante pante kind of a leader. he has never told us his game so as for i would rather continue with the devil i know than the one whos going to bring more misery to my family. Continue with your Ka BALLY.
WHY DO PEOPLE WANT CHANGE? POLITICAL VIOLENCE? CORRUPTION? NO RULE OF LAW? NO CONSTITUTIONALISM? HARSH TAXATION? STREET VENDING? POWER SHORTAGES? SELECTIVE APPLICATION OF THE LAW? TRIBALISM? NEPOTISM? SORCERY? UNCARING HOSPITALS? POLITICAL KILLINGS? why do people want change?
Lungu winning by 77%
@BetterMustCome
Why people don’t want change:
1. UPND are the most violent and cunning group. Even when they burn their own pullovers and billboards, they cite others.
2. PF is most ardent at constitutionality. That’s why they made sure for the first time in Zambia, they instituted the Concourt.
3. Taxation in Zambia is not harsh. Zambia requires revenue, but multilateral firms want to maximise leaving the country poor, by say even avoiding to pay the fair tax.
4. Street vending is a global phenomenon. Give me a country without this.
5. Power shortage? Aside from recent machine service, the last Zambia had load shedding was December.
6. Tribalism and nepotism are all theories you can’t substantiate. We all have who we can fairly work with in a team.
7. Sorcery. Don’t you…
@BetterMustCome
7. Sorcery. Don’t you remember violent William Banda telling us how UPND will use juju to win elections?
8. Hospitals are littered across the country and are close to the people unlike just having provincial hospital. That’s caring.
9. Political killings are mostly on the blood of UPND than PF. They are fond of human shields. Others are sniper planned so they accuse PF.
10. Why people don’t want change. Because there is nothing worth experimenting for.
FORWARD IWE
As the author, I realize readers are missing the satire of my article. The point is in the last line; Unless UPND addresses its many shortfalls, it should look to 2026 to get to Plot 1. As things stand, UPND is not likely to get 50+1 needed to form government.
Ba rev . Are you back in Zambia or you are still in USA? If the latter is the case then it means you are part of the multiple upnd cadres on social media. Actually you needed to leave the confort of USA and join the foot soldiers. Upnd is heavy ladden with boastiful people not ready to go in the trenches. They are cheer leaders, cheering the master to go flatter out. Unfortunately politics requires us to be on the ground and not always on the phone celebrating before you score. Upnd should prepare petition papers now. For winning sir.