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Alba Iulia
Monday, January 30, 2023

The Myth of 2.8 million: Why Minus 9.2% Could Make Bally a One Term President

ColumnsThe Myth of 2.8 million: Why Minus 9.2% Could Make Bally a...

By Kapya Kaoma

Bally’s victory of 2.8 million votes in the 2021 elections was big. Since then, Bally worshipers have weaponized his 2.8 million votes to silence their opponents. Yet 2.8 million is useless–how people voted in 2021, and how they feel today is different. Minus 9.02% is what we should be talking about. If HH got 47.63% and Lungu got 50.35% in 2016, where did he get +12.02% in 2021? Eastern, Northern, Luapula and Muchinga Provinces are the answers. His votes in Southern Province remained unchanged as in the previous election between 97 to 99.9 %. No doubt Lungu lost, but in reality HH only added 12.02% to his 47% in 2016. Since the Constitution demands 50+1, should HH bleed 9.03% of the total vote in 2026, he will no longer be President. Is this impossible?

As things stand, like mist, Bally’s popularity is evaporating at an alarming rate.Many are the sacred hearts that his baby administration has shattered. As in the 1990s (during the Chiluba regime when the masses cried for the return of Kaunda), HH has turned Lungu into a saint. The promised “Manna,” jobs, standard of living, cheap fuel and lower costs of basic things have not rained. As for human rights and fight against corruption, HH’s dementia is puzzling. So those who cast a trial vote for HH, today in shame they dwell. In the Bally universe, however, the myth is that 2.8 million votes of 2021 are perpetually locked in for the 2026 elections. The truth is, HH has only locked in less than 47% of the total vote. Unlike other parties, his ethnic strongholds will always vote for him almost 100% even if Jesus was to run. This is what makes him very competitive regardless of how chaotic his dark regime may turn out to be. All the UPND needs is 3+1% to return Plot One.

But it could also be problematic should Luapula, Northern, Muchinga, and Eastern Provinces increase turnout and vote for the opposition. Worse still, should the Opposition unite against HH in 2026, the rage of “losers,” ethnic pride, and disappointment of the HH Presidency can force a higher voter turnout in 2026 than in 2021 in opposition strongholds should they have a candidate of choice.

Besides in 2026, Fred M’membe will be in play. The mythology of 2.8 million ignores the fact that Zambians didn’t vote for any opposition party aside from the UPND. Now many of those who voted for HH (9.02 percent) feel conned. Many may give their votes to M’membe if they are not happy with the PF–something we saw in Kamwala were opposition candidates got more votes combined than the UPND despite HH campaigning there three times. If M’membe gets above 6% of the total votes, this would change things for HH. His only prayer is that the PF dies; but if it unites, and manages to improve turnout in its strongholds by 5 – 10%, the HH Presidency dies.

For HH to survive, he has to ensure that the Opposition remains disorganized. One way is to buy PF MPs. Who doesn’t know that the politicians are all about common interests as opposed to integrity? Even then, the chances of this working in Cities is likely but not in PF dominated territories. Moreover, the more he sings “tribalism” the better; he triggers the tribal or ethnic subconsciousness among Zambians. Yes. He may claim to UNITE Zambia in his Ballyuniverse, but ethnicity is real. Bembas may be called names, but ethinic identity is thicker than his worshipers think. Ethnic pride is real, and the more HH lies about tribalism when he is a sole beneficiary of it only incenses other tribes. It surely works in his strongholds, but it is another mountain to climb among other tribes.

Further HH’s public image is already negatively defined–he is untrustworthy, vindictive and bathes into moral turpitude and tribal politics. Aside from his worshipers, HH must erase this image before the 2026 elections. One can only pray HH will continue to assure Zambians that he is the Messiah to their bread and butter despite their empty bellies. But as the economy bites, it is unlikely that his 2021 lies will still work in 2026. Only an intelligent cadre can believe Zambians have no memory!

36 COMMENTS

    • UPND is very much on course, what was destroyed in 10 years by the PF can not be fixed over night. It will get worse before it gets better

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  1. the clique supporters are betting on HH being rubbish at turning the economy around…………

    To their dismay , HH has biten the bullet early , within 6 months of his rule , austerity measures were in place…………underpined by the rule of law

    By 2024…………Zambians will be crying for 20 more years of UPND……….

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  2. All these bitter write ups by the clique and tribal hegemonists……………

    Are on the assumption and hope the austerity measures underpinned with good economic fundamentals and the rule of law, all carried out on the first day’s, don’t work …………..

    The clique better pray for an asteroid or plague to attack zambia………..

    Otherwise , it’s 10 more years of HH ba chembele…….

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  3. The biggest weakness the UPND has is its Secretariat, Batuke Imenda is stranger in the Party. This is the reason HH has appointed people to sensitive positions whose only preoccupation is to amass as much as they can so that if they’re kicked out in 2026 they’d not starve. A good analyst can’t ignore the power of the disillusioned youth. An average 460,000 cross from grade 7 to 8. These are between 13 & 15 yrs. We’re likely to have over a million new voters from this category. ECL’s 1.8M was from old timers because they don’t easily change. These are what Fred Mmembe has targeted. Whoever harnesses this vote is likely to be a serious contender in 2026. So I don’t think the outlook will be the same as 2021. The under-performance of Mweetwa in Southern province might cause UPND to…

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  4. I don’t agree with the assertion that the Bemba are tribal. The Bemba embrace everybody and that’s what makes them big. Tribes that align themselves to the Bemba feel good and welcome, they’re not discriminated. The Tonga on the plateau embraces that in the valley and the Ila only as much as the latter are able to support them. The Soli, Sala, Lenje, Toka-Leya etc are sometimes rejected by the tribal plateau Tonga while the Bemba have embraced the Luunda, Ngumbo, Lala, Bisa, Lungu, Namwanga, Mambwe, Tabwa, Chishinga, Ushi, Kabende, Iwa, Unga and others. This was why Freedom Sikazwe was smeared with powder in the Bemba- Ngoni tribal cousinship. Tribalists aren’t difficult to know, just check how they live with others.

  5. What a wasteful analysis . You sir, are better off using all this brain power to better yourself .it is wishful thinking to even put bo FRED in the picture .
    Reality is ,Zambians will grow more in love with this man you despise so much. Keep posting your skewed articles ,I don’t blame you , THE JOKERS ARE THE ONES WHO FACILITATE YOUR POSTS!

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  6. Sorry I couldn’t continue reading the garbage! What is he saying? 2026??? Is four long years from today! By then Zambia may invade Congo to claim Katanga and the pedicle road and things will change, just saying!!!!!!!

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  7. They never learn… when you have fat Matambo falsifying people’s happiness the president will always believe he’s still popular.

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  8. Kapya Kaoma at it again…tell us something about the missing millions for FTJ University in Luapula?

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  9. Keep dreaming! HH has barely been in office for 9 months and you are already concluding about 2026. Is 2022 was an election year, may be, he would be one term president, but 2026, he has 4 years and 3 months to correct things. PF chaps never seem to stop hallucinations.

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  10. What the analyst is not telling us, if HH loses 9,02% where will this go to, Zambian politics is not ready for coalision politics, we have seen this before, tell us which parties untied successfully. What the analyst again misses is HH was voted by the youthful voters not their tribalist seniors, with continous voter registration coming, HH’s strongholds have been disadvantaged in the past elections years, imagine all the disfrenchised are allowed to register, southern, western and north western provinces are massive vote influencers in the next elections. You can disrespect and hate HH, i am sorry to tell you he has no competition. The austerity put in early will yield results soon and all the cost of living things will be absorbed and smoothended into the economy. I can predict HH for…

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  11. I like numbers, from what I am seeing, HH will maintain a majority of those votes, without clear opposition, he is set to secure a second term. The levers of power that a president wields in Zambia are so great that he can change many indicators with the stroke of a pen. As for PF, they will share and split votes with the Socialist Party.

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  12. I am equally disappointed with the UPND. I voted for Hakainde. I villified Lungu but now i see that Lungu was as good as Hakainde and even better than Hakainde

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  13. I wonder how such articles find themselves on LT, this analyst is biased and clearly bitter, surely how do judge someone in 9 months whilst they still have 4 years and some months to turn the tides around….moreover those youths who didn’t vote but were busy shouting bally in the streets would want to exercise their right to vote. This is also marred with tribalism which every meaningful citizen of this country is trying to get away from.
    Bane its too early to start prophesying doom in 2026 for a government which hasn’t even ruled for a year sure. Be realistic!!

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  14. Hollow article as usual. UPND is on course, the gigantic holes left by PF will not be filled in a day, it will take time, every thing had collapsed under PF, 10 years of misrule can not be corrected in two years, learn to learn

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  15. @13, Lluba, zo -ona???
    Are you for real, [email protected] Lungu good?
    • Tribalism, 95% of Government hailing from 2 regions Northern & Eastern.
    • Grand theft Auto, overflated Fire tenders & Gassing?
    • Corruption, Ubomba [email protected] became Zambias philosophy when K.K had Humanism.
    • Travelling & letting known Narco peddlers use State House as a base & the eye-watering expensive Jet be used as a Tavern in the Sky, whilst there were no desks in Schools & medicines in hospitals.
    • Retirees NOT paid for nearly a decade a backlog that took H.H days to settle.
    • State sponsored violent Goons called Cadres brutalising & killing Citizens while President nursed daily hangovers.
    YOU MY FRIEND ARE EITHER MENTALLY STUNTED OR A VILE TRIBALIST & I am Ngoni & can see through your like.

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  16. @13, Lluba, z0 -ona???
    Are you for real, [email protected]@n Lungu g0od?
    • Tr1balism, 95% of Government hailing from 2 regi0ns N0rthern & [email protected]
    • Grand theft Aut0, overflated Fire tenders, ambulances & Gassing?
    • Corruption, Ubomba [email protected] became Zambias philosophy unlike K.K who had Humanism.
    • Travelling & letting known Narc0 peddlers use State H0use as a base & the eye-watering expensive Jet be used as a Tavern in the Sky, whilst there were no desks in Sch0ols & medicines in h0spitals.
    • Retirees NOT paid for nearly a decade a backlog that took H.H days to settle.
    • State spons0red violent G0ons called [email protected] brutalising & killing innocent Citiz3ns, while President J0na nursed daily hangovers.
    Y0U MY FRIEND ARE EITHER MENTALLY STUNTED 0R A VILE TR1BALIST & I am Ngoni & can…

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  17. The last time I checked, elections are more than 4 years away and that is more than 220 weeks to go. As one British politician put it, ‘A week is a very long time in poliitics.’

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  18. There are points in evaluation of Presidential performance on key performance indicators cross sectional and in a more Geographical representations and methodology of data You normally pick last elections and campaigns messages on key indicators of performance against the past and current and begin to rate performance daily and monthly building up to annually and then termly The research methodology must reflect the value of party weights and quality of positioning against the current performance comparing approval ratings from other well conducted and research on performance but as it yes performance is yet to be seen and firm comparisons to emerge clearly without any bias in performance metrics

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  19. It should be on key daily monthly and annually to term developmental and market indicators rating Presidential performance against immediate past or prospective On all key developments and markets indicators Then it should be complete and accurate forward looking also in methodology and balanced regionally in Geographical ratings and be similarly in consensus with other well researched commentary in methodology like the GALLUP polls or RASMUSSEN polls In terms of Infrastructure developments and other key economics he is yet to !easier up and be compared like in Governance and other soft areas but hard issues of the economy and Infrastructure for growth he is yet to measure up

  20. I hear mention of Mr M’membe as a possibility to turn the tables. It might be a tall order. Not until recently, I didn’t know Mr M’membe’s political ambitions nor can I now say I really know the man and what he is about; but I knew Mr Sata – because he made a lot of sweet “noise”(metaphor) during his campaign years. The trouble with Mr Meembe, is that he appears to be a muted private individual most people will struggle to connect with. He needs to be a “go get it” sort of guy. Out and about letting people know who he is, & what he has to offer.

    #plant a tree please.

  21. Mr Kaoma, your tribal innuendos are very clear in this Article. Objectively you are being unfair to your fellow human being. To tell you the truth most Zambians have moved from this old thinking of “my tribe first”.

  22. Good Afternoon Zambia !
    I have never seen such garbage coming from someone calling himself elite political commentator! Full of hypothetical scenarios, and throwing out numbers that doesn’t make sense.Kapya himself is not sure, he hasn’t clearly told us how he calculated the bogus numbers he is presenting here.
    1] Majority of normal Zambians were suffering during PF 10 years in government, and only a few benefited. So to suggest that Zambians are suffering NOW, as if their suffering started from August 12th, 2021, is completely insane, and no one will buy into that
    2] Before Aug 12th, 2021, there was a formidable opposition party with a visible leader in HH. 8months later, we don’t see anything like that, So to suggest the 47% or 9% or whatever, doesn’t make sense. Mr M’membe’s…

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  23. Why should anyone believe you when your tribal analysis that Lungu would win massively in 2021 failed to materialize despite PF giving you brown envelopes to haul insults at HH?

    I’m sure the defeated PF wants their money back from you.

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  24. The big question is: Were we going to be better off with Edgar Lungu as at now if he had won last year’s polls? The answer is CERTAINLY NOT. But I’m happy to see the likes of Bowman Lusambo trekking to to the courts of law to account for the alleged ill-gotten riches, the plunderers of the FTJ University in court. I’m sure there will be a lot to point at in 2026 to secure another mandate for the UPND.

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  25. Leaders are always generally accepted by people to fit in the needs of the people one who will come must have a now a higher bar than badala and where he will leave from because if he will not achieve the social and economics challenges of our people then it makes we will need an exception given the measure of assurance we approved him to lead so anyone to come must be resolute and be above this article and achieve better performance requirements But performance ranking will spell the job specifications and objectives for performing the Zambias social and economics challenges it’s not just any for progress achivement

  26. The perception of perceived persecution and polar he must remove that tag and also how he manages to unwind votes will depend on the skill and working with others to foster unity of purpose as it he is diverging many voters and reducing on the voters would be to likely opponents It will be an exciting 2026 because many will vote decided and clearly between him and others having confirmed affirmatively his performance It will not be like tumwesheko or tubapeleko basibuku nabo batekeko may be things could be better it will will be a Mexican waive if performance doesn’t change for the better because There is no room for failing it will be a forgone conclusion and not maybe maybe him

  27. The political outlook and numbers have changed so people will need to form different scenarios and how basankwa performance unfolds will easily shift the margin variations in a most clear and predictable way however the quality and leadership now is not assuring better to foresee differently better performance than current so if there emerges a quality leadership of assurance it will be a Mexican wave because people will have comfirmed the current elders performance metrics

  28. Before you begin to write articles: one, educate yourself on how to analyze an issue. Two, get informed about the subject you wanna write on. And three, use or reference data in a correct context. Hope you find my suggestions useful.

  29. The August 2021 Presidential elections demonstrated genuine democracy when Northerners and Easterners helped to deliver HH as Republican President. But current punitive measures against non-Tongas suggests that many voters were duped in order to punish Easterners and Northerners. Officers in ACC, DEC & Police so used as tools of persecutions must take note of the following: (a) UPND is not the final arbiter in delivery of political stability in Zambia; (b) HH actions may close chances of his ethnic group to ever become future President for a long time; (c) Staff in ACC, DEC & Police must brace for a day when the current or future Govt may fire them all, prosecute them and get them to spend their aging lives in prison only to be replaced by a new crop of well trained professional security…

  30. (c) Staff in ACC, DEC & Police must brace for a day when the current or future Govt may fire them all, prosecute them and get them to spend their aging lives in prison only to be replaced by a new crop of well trained professional security Officers in order to restore sanity in Zambia. Human life spans up to the mean age of 90 years and no one expects to live in misery at an old age. Sometimes money ca be a source of evil.

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