Economist Sees Continued Economic Growth, but Warns Relief Is Lagging

Economist Sees Continued Economic Growth, but Warns Relief Is Lagging

Economist Dr. Mwamba Simbao says Zambia’s economic recovery is no longer fragile and is likely to remain on a steady growth path through 2026, but cautions that the benefits of that recovery are yet to be fully felt by ordinary households.

From his assessment of current macroeconomic indicators, Dr. Simbao projects that real GDP growth will remain within the range of 4.2 to 4.8 percent this year, a level he considers sustainable under prevailing conditions. He grounds this outlook in what he describes as measurable improvements in fiscal discipline, exchange-rate stability, and external confidence.

According to Dr. Simbao, fiscal consolidation has been a central pillar of the recovery. Reduced budget deficits have eased pressure on domestic borrowing, while the successful restructuring of Zambia’s external debt under the G20 Common Framework has restored predictability to the country’s fiscal outlook. That predictability, he notes, is critical for rebuilding investor confidence.

“The exchange rate has stabilised, inflation is trending downward from double-digit levels, and foreign reserves are rebuilding,” Dr. Simbao explains, adding that these developments create a more conducive environment for both domestic and foreign investment. In his view, credibility in policy execution now matters as much as incentives.

Copper remains a key anchor of the recovery. Dr. Simbao points to stable prices, consistent output, and improved transparency in royalty administration as factors that have strengthened public revenue without discouraging exploration or expansion in the mining sector. He argues that this balance has helped restore confidence in Zambia’s economic management.

However, Dr. Simbao is careful to separate macroeconomic progress from lived economic reality. He acknowledges a persistent disconnect between national indicators and household experience. While headline inflation has eased, food inflation remains elevated, driven by climate-related disruptions to maize production, global fertiliser costs, and supply pressures.

“Macroeconomic stability does not automatically translate into microeconomic relief,” he notes. Incomes have not risen fast enough to offset price pressures on essentials, and as a result, many households experience recovery as an abstract concept rather than a tangible improvement.

This gap, Dr. Simbao argues, explains growing public scepticism. People are told the economy is improving, yet they buy less than before. That contradiction, he says, is not emotional but structural. Economic repair begins at the top of the system and takes time to filter down.

He also warns of concentration risk. While copper has stabilised the economy, overreliance on a single commodity leaves Zambia exposed to external shocks. Price volatility or climate disruption could quickly reverse gains built over several seasons. Diversification into agriculture, manufacturing, and value-added processing is therefore not optional, but necessary.

Dr. Simbao places particular emphasis on job creation. Youth unemployment remains high, and he argues that no recovery can be considered durable if it fails to absorb new entrants into the labour market. Growth without employment, he cautions, produces statistics rather than stability.

Looking ahead to the 2026 election period, Dr. Simbao expresses confidence that Zambia’s economic momentum can be sustained, provided fiscal discipline is not sacrificed for short-term political convenience. Reversing reforms or loosening controls prematurely, he warns, would quickly undo recent progress.

His assessment is neither celebratory nor dismissive. Zambia, he says, is no longer in economic free fall, and that alone is significant. But recovery confined to balance sheets will always face scepticism.

“The foundation is firmer,” Dr. Simbao observes. “The challenge now is to ensure that what is built on it is broad enough to shelter everyone.”