Katele Kalumba says Hichilema still ahead as opposition pressure grows
Former finance minister Dr Katele Kalumba believes President Hakainde Hichilema retains the advantage heading into the August 13 general election, but argues the race is tightening in ways that are making the ruling party’s path to victory considerably less straightforward than incumbency alone might suggest.
Kalumba’s reading of the political environment carries weight. A seasoned political figure who has observed Zambian elections across multiple cycles, he sees the UPND benefiting from the structural advantages that come with holding office: visibility, organisation and a government record that can be taken directly to voters during campaigns. Those advantages remain significant, but he also sees pressure building steadily beneath the surface.
The cost of living remains the issue the opposition keeps returning to, and with reason. Macroeconomic indicators have improved. Debt restructuring is progressing, mining investment is expanding and infrastructure projects remain visible in constituencies across the country. Government officials regularly point to those developments with confidence. What those figures do not always capture is what many households continue experiencing daily: rising food prices, persistent unemployment and growing frustration over the gap between the national economic message and lived economic reality.
That disconnect is what continues keeping this election politically competitive. Kalumba’s assessment comes as the campaign atmosphere undergoes a noticeable shift in tone and intensity. What initially appeared likely to become a development-focused election is now absorbing pressure from multiple directions at once.
The detention of PF faction secretary general Raphael Nakacinda has become one of the opposition’s strongest mobilisation points after Tonse Alliance presidential candidate Brian Mundubile and running mate Makebi Zulu were denied entry to Lusaka Central Correctional Facility during Africa Freedom Day commemorations. That confrontation handed the opposition something it had struggled to consistently produce in recent months: an emotionally resonant political moment capable of consolidating fragmented anti-government sentiment around a single grievance easily understood by supporters.
The ruling party is also managing internal political complications of its own. Former minister Garry Nkombo’s decision to contest Mazabuka Central as an independent candidate following disputes surrounding adoption has continued attracting national attention, particularly after violence accompanied his nomination filing. Independent candidacies emerging from within the ruling party create difficult local political calculations. In constituencies where support divides, campaign strategies that appear manageable on paper often become considerably more difficult on the ground.
Opposition alliances, meanwhile, continue dealing with internal tensions of their own. Court disputes involving alliance parties, unresolved coalition arrangements and leadership disagreements continue weakening attempts to construct a fully unified anti-UPND front. That fragmentation remains one of the ruling party’s most dependable political advantages heading into the election period.
Security concerns are also beginning to enter the national conversation in ways election stakeholders had hoped to avoid. Firearm incidents and clashes during nomination exercises have already prompted repeated appeals for restraint from church bodies, civil society organisations and the Electoral Commission of Zambia. A campaign environment where political violence becomes increasingly normalised carries risks for all political players, particularly for an incumbent administration seeking to project stability, institutional order and public confidence.
Kalumba’s overall assessment sits somewhere between caution and political realism. He is not predicting an upset. He is observing that the conditions for a more competitive race than many originally anticipated are now visibly emerging, and that the ruling party would be unwise to approach the election as though the outcome is already settled.
The UPND still holds the advantage. The question the coming weeks will answer is by how much, and whether the opposition can convert mounting frustration into organised and disciplined electoral pressure capable of shifting results.
That answer remains uncertain.
Editor’s Note: “Incumbency remains a major political advantage in Zambia, but elections become increasingly unpredictable when economic pressure remains visible inside ordinary households.”
