THE latest Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) report says although this year’s general elections are likely to be tightly contested, President Banda and the MMD are likely to win.

The report says the MMD will benefit from the advantages of incumbency and its formidable electoral machinery.

“However, the PF and Mr (Michael) Sata should put up a strong challenge to the MMD. Mr Sata narrowly lost the 2008 elections…,” it says.

The report adds that President Banda emerged from the MMD national convention in a much stronger position.

“Recent trends have shown that the MMD still has a bigger rural support base of about 65 percent of the total population,” the report says.

The report says political squabbling will intensify but stability will remain intact.

On policy agenda, the report says this will be underpinned by the Sixth National Development Plan (SNDP; 2011-15), the medium-term expenditure framework (2011-13) and the extended credit facility with the International Monetary Fund (2008-11).

It adds that despite the impending elections, a high degree of policy continuity is expected in 2011-12.

The report says fiscal policy in 2011-12 will be expansionary, with expenditure forecast to rise by an average of 17.2 percent per year.

“The government plans to implement a shift from public consumption to public investment, with the former projected to grow by 11 percent (on average) and the latter by 38 percent.

“Real GDP growth is expected to stay robust, at seven percent in 2011 and 7.2 percent in 2012. Agriculture is forecast to grow by an average of 6 percent as producers of maize continue to receive subsidies and as the country’s vast tracts of uncultivated arable land attract an influx of foreign direct investment,” the report says.

[Zambia Daily Mail]

Editor’s Note

Lusakatimes has the full original report but cannot publish it for copyright reasons because the report is meant for sale. If you want to get the original copy for about $23 go to

http://store.eiu.com/product/50000205ZM/wf-ssb-articles.html

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40 COMMENTS

  1. Why did you leave out the fact that PF will win the election since people want change? Please learn to report and not manufacture data. You mean you cannot even read simple english? Shame on you fools with your foolish and ignorant MMD junk. Shame on you Daily mafi

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  2. This is an edited version of the report posted on LT last year (Tuesday, March 30, 2010, 9:29 am)
    its there in the LT archives lusakatimes.com/2010/03/30/economist-intelligence-unit-report-zambia-predicts-rbs-reelection-2011/
    Someone at State House has edited the original version…desperate times calls for desperate measures

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  3. We have two different interpretations of the same EIU report. The one carried by the Post Newspaper yesterday is more balanced and hence credible than the selective lines picked by the Daily mail.
    Contrary to the story by the Daily mail, the EIU report in fact suggests there is a likelihood of change of govt with Sata winning the polls.You may criticise the Post Newspaper, but the greatest asset about them is that they are not afraid to tell the story as it…bad or good.
    How can Daily mail miss such critical analysis?

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  4. The fact is Mr.Sata is beatable, as he has been beaten several times despite the Post’s support in terms of publicity.

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  5. as i hav always asked is Lt pro mmd or is Lt and mmd paper.the post curried a story to enlighten people on what is transparing,but Lt is reporting the same story supporting mmd,when the truth can be scene by the pfs rallies in mongu and kabwe.do u need a mad person to outline that fact to u.grow up Lt u are becoming monotonus to the public media now.

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  6. #5 young boostele
    LT is not pro mmd, political statements or any propaganda news be it PF/mmd or any other is paid for and at the moment mmd has a lot of cash to throw around in form of campaigns.LT charges and makes a lot of money for these articles.MMD campaign team are desperate at the moment they are virtually paying for anything that mentions mmd,development and rb

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  7. # 1-5

    you PF kaponya guys learn to read. Clearly the guys at LT told at the end of the story to get your own copy with the link there and make your own interpretation. Maybe PF guys can’t afford ka $23 dolla.

    It is obvious POST is Pro PF and Daily mail Pro MMD, get the original report and make your own interpretation please. ubututu too much on this blog

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  8. I coughed up the damn 23 bucks and read the entire thing. If read in its entirety, it suggests MMD will most likely win even though PF has a chance for an upset. Bottom line, it took a safe position on the fence so both sides need not get erections.

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  9. It’s an issue of two tired old men fighting over a cob of maize. While they are fighting a watching young man rans away with the cob of maize. This is exactly the scenerio in Zambian politics at the moment.

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  10. Don’t take these desperate MMD platforms seriously.
    The report clearly puts PF’s Michael Chilufya Sata in the Lead not bwezani.

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  11. So mmembe’s toilet shinda paper got it all wrong again.#5 young boostelle – attendance to rallies does not amount to anything.We have been seeing those PF rallies since 2001 and always, the results are that gay sata zondwa loses all the time.

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  12. Just wait for the last whistle. it will be definitely in favour of RB because of the massive development we are enjoying in the country. we are slowly digging a pit where to burry PF. after the elections it will be the down fall of this party. you will prove me right.

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  13. report or no report,insults or no insults,predictions or no predictions,sata and his elton john @ the post are loosing period

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  14. Ba LT please we not kids, you don’t have to paste the report just tell us what says-assuming you attended summary lessons-instead of copying from disgraced sites

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  15. #11
    No it’s the Govt shinda papers that are not reporting the truth.each time MMD wins,they rig in rural areas ask your name sake VJ. why are they scared of PVT? ipushe weka nokuyasuka.

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  16. RACING THE TWO OLD MADALAS IS NO LONGER INTERESTING..HH MIGHT COME FROM BEHIND TO WIN THE RACE ..HIS REAL CHANGE MESSAGES ARE ATTRACTIVE

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  17. whether this report is pro MMD or pro PF does not really matter. The research lacks depth which makes me doubt the capacity of an institution which compiles a report based on what daily mail and post report. All the report is saying is that either MMD or PF will win and each side decided to quote only the parts favourable to their preferred candidate while UPND supporters will call it utter rubbish. My opinion is that this report does not bring anything new and it will be folly for anyone to rely on it. I say the race is very much undecided

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  18. Interesting turn of events. Makes me want to purchase the report. Whatever the case, Mr. Sata has never won a presidential election in Zambia and will never win a presidential election in Zambia. The Zambian people saw through Mr. Sata’s bull.shit a long time ago.

    As long as Zambia continues holding free, fair and transparent elections, Mr. Sata will never win a presidential election in Zambia.

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  19. MMD is a real winner. No matter how much you hate RB he is a performer. In two years he has done what SataN has failed to do when he was in MMD. Pf is nothing but degenerated MMD, constituting of those who were disciplined for various offences. SataN has failed to remove his MP who were in disagreement with him. Is this the type of leader we need. Dictator oh no. RB please do it again.

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  20. This is total nonsense transfered from state house to Daily Mail then to Lusaka Times.You can dispute yesturday’s Post story at your own peril because power belongs to the people.You dont know that you are fighting with 5 million voters & you will be shocked & chocked when your Bwezani ku farm will cry after loosing elections & erections at the same time before the end of the year 2011.

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  21. Please opinnion is just opinion, everybody have opinion of who will win elections but what matters is that the reality settles it all. Viva HH, Viva UPND

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  22. Another propaganda by MMD. The post did not eddit the quotations but as ussal LT eddits statements and only puts what they want their masters to hear.

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  23. BA LT IS AN MMD PIECE OF SHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEET SHIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIT …PFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF

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  24. GOVERNMENT CONTROLS LT.THE POST AND ZAMBIA WATCHDOG REPORTED THE SAME.WE ALL KNOW THAT GOVERNMENT PROPAGANDA WILL NOT HELP THEM.MMD IS FACING THE LAW OF DIMINISHING RETURN. NO MATTER HW MUCH DEVELOPMENT THEY WILL DO IN THE LAST MINUTE IT WILL NOT INCREASE THIER POPULARITY.

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  25. This is not news, everyone knows that MMD is winning and Sata will never be president. Zambian have rejected Satan 3 times and in a few months, he will be getting his 4th slap in the face. 

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  26. The president, Rupiah Banda, and the ruling party, the Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD), will remain in power until the presidential and parliamentary elections in the second half of 2011.The elections are likely to be closely contested and—despite Mr Banda’s substantial advantages of incumbency—the Patriotic Front’s leader, Michael Sata, could win the presidential election.Whichever party wins, the government is likely to stick to a pro-market agenda and promote macroeconomic stability, as strong public pressure to promote job creation ensures a high degree of economic pragmatism.

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  27. ‘The president, Rupiah Banda, and the ruling party, the Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD), will remain in power until the presidential and parliamentary elections in the second half of 2011.The elections are likely to be closely contested and—despite Mr Banda’s substantial advantages of incumbency—the Patriotic Front’s leader, Michael Sata, could win the presidential election.Whichever party wins, the government is likely to stick to a pro-market agenda and promote macroeconomic stability, as strong public pressure to promote job creation ensures a high degree of economic pragmatism’.

    Now thats more like it!!!!

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  28. OOH my God!! the bit of irriterate is so deep in the souls of many zambians. Surely, can an authetic site report falsehood, centainly not. Prediction of the nature above are premature predictions which might mean nearly nothing. Wait Util the parliament is disolved the you can predict where the wind will be blowing to. certainly it will never blow towards Sata

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  29. WELL, THIS IS THE FLIP SIDE OF THE SAME STORY………A BOTTLE OF MOSI OF WHICH 50% CONTENTS HAVE BEEN DRUNK MAY BE DESCRIBED AS ‘HALF FULL’ BY A POSTIVE PERSON…..BUT ‘HALF EMPTY’ BY A NEGATIVE PERSON….. BOTH ARE RIGHT………SUCH IS LIFE…….. SO MAYBE WE SHOULD JUST WAIT FOR THE COUNT OF THE LAST VOTE TO SEE WHO IS TELLING THE TRUTH……….BUT THE FACT IS THIS YEAR WE ARE KICKING OUT POLIO, SO IT’S ‘BYE BYE POLIO’……………..

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  30. Now how can there be a change of govt with all these developments taking place? There are some bad things the mmd with their bezani have done to me personally, but the old man is also putting up a lot of development in my village. so i am divided. but if the zambian pipo vote out bezani, they will surely remember him “in two years time”

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  31. Here is the conclusion of the EIU report (i have hard copy) under the political risks section (quote: ‘….The elections will be closely contested, although the incumbent, Rupiah Banda, remains more likely to win.’

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  32. In the post newspaper we saw huge crowsds in Mongu and Kabwe attending a PF rally but we saw oceans of people in Mandevu last Saturday which attended the launch of road construction and solar geysers by RB. The story was there in the post but the reporter pretended not to have seen the crowd.

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  33. Crowds and opinion polls don’t mean a thing, it’s final results that will tell who the winner will be. I was in Zambia 2 months ago and spoke to different people in different towns and was glad to know that many people registered to vote and the majority were saying they were gonna vote for Sata,others for R.B and only a few for HH. In my personal opinion,Sata and RB have had their time in politics and are out of date and out of touch so if i were a registered voter,i would go for HH since he’s the only better alternative as other opposition leaders are not serious or they are sponsored by MMD to split votes.
    One thing also tells me that this website is clearly for MMD coz it’s cluttered with pro-MMD junk and cheap propaganda stories.

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  34. Read the report. MMD is winning the 2011 polls. Even without the so called report, RB is the next President of Zambia

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  35. # 34 under what capacity were you visiting Zambia? Were you doing some research work on the forth coming elections or what? I’m sure you just went there to visit your family and you only happened to talk to a handful of people in drinking places.Who are you tryong to bluff? Give us real information e.g. statitistics, instead of wishful thinking.

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  36. No apology from the POST, i have been waiting all day.

    I have the report and it clearly states that the MMD are likely to win.

    POST have some balls and aplogise for twisting facts ……….

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  37. Hai Guys’ these are just indicators but anything can happen.Remember that in football we count 90 plus extra time. Any body between MMD,PF and Up and Down can do better provided they pay their cards well. But things as they stand the race is between MMD and PF although the latter are using bogus NGO to character assasinate the PF Boss.RB is wise to chair the meeting with the MMD members discourging them to Insult.Fair play is vital in a democracy.

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  38. hello!,I like your writing very much! percentage we keep up a correspondence more about your article on AOL? I require a specialist in this space to unravel my problem. May be that is you! Taking a look forward to peer you.

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