By Henry Kabinga

A recent posting on Zambian internet sites quoted the political analyst and friend of mine Neo Simutanyi as saying whoever wins Lusaka and Eastern Provinces will decide the winner of this month’s Presidential election. The article seemed to suggest that the two provinces must both be won by one candidate to decide the outcome of the election. It is not clear if this is what Neo meant as he was being quoted off an interview he had given to QFM radio. It is possible he simply said Lusaka and Eastern are the swing provinces because the question that arises in my mind immediately is who wins if one candidate takes Lusaka and the other takes Eastern Province? (The assumption here is that we are talking about Hichilema and Lungu). I raise the last question to demonstrate that there is more to the question than the answer suggests. Furthermore, I think that unlike some of the previous elections where swing provinces have clearly been seen such as the 2006 election where it appears Eastern Province swung the election in favour of Mwanawasa (hence the appointment of Rupiah Banda as Vice President), the 2015 scenario is not as straightforward.

I will proceed to outline some of the factors that make this coming election somewhat different from previous relatively black or white affairs. Firstly, the 2015 election is being held against the backdrop of very serious fissures in two of the major contenders, namely PF and MMD. The fratricidal fights that have taken place in these two parties have led to very major realignment of forces that make outright predictions rather perilous.

We have a scenario where the MMD, Zambia’s dominant party in twenty of the last twenty three years split into three rather significant groups. One group comprising of both members of Parliament and NEC is rooting for the party President Nevers Mumba who is the official MMD candidate. The other group also comprising of MPs and NEC members has chosen to back the UPND candidate, Hakainde Hichilema while very recently, a group that had backed Rupiah Banda’s failed election bid, and led by Rupiah himself has thrown its weight behind Edgar Lungu of the PF. This electoral variable cuts across provinces and affects the whole country.

As if the dynamics cited above are not sufficient enough to cause difficulties in making predictions, the PF itself is split into three factions, yes, you heard me right, three. One group is backing Edgar Lungu while the second group that includes PF MPs Geoffrey Bwalya Mwamba (GBM) and Sylvia Masebo has come out in support of Hakainde Hichilema. This group includes not just individuals but entire PF structures such as the Western Province Committee that is supporting Hichilema’s candidature. The third group comprises those that have only recently left the PF to join Wynter Kabimba’s newly formed Rainbow Party. I include these as a PF faction because until very recently, they comprised whole PF structures such as Constituency, District and Provincial Committees. I am made to understand this category is also supporting Hichilema. A recent article in one of Zambia’s leading papers mentioned that the Rainbow Party in Northwestern Province led by losing Solwezi Parliamentary candidate Newton Malwa is campaigning for Hichilema.

Predicting provincial election outcomes in previous elections was relatively easy. For instance, it was always known where the UPND would score big and where they would fare very badly, and likewise for the MMD and the PF. Even as far back as 2001, Mazoka’s landslides in Southern, Western and Northwestern Provinces were predictable just as his abysmal performance in Luapula, Northern and Copperbelt Provinces could be foretold.

One notable previous outcome arising from a swing vote was 2001 when the UPND candidate, (in an arguable win that is still a controversial talking point today), took Lusaka Province by a wide margin. Anderson Mazoka emerged winner against most predictions (it was always assumed that Christon Tembo of the FDD would carry the day in Lusaka). Mazoka’s surge in Lusaka was a very late one and appears to have come on the back of two very significant events. One was his polished ZNBC live television debate performance against a rather lackluster and bumbling showing by Christon Tembo. Godfrey Miyanda, another serious contender tied himself in all sorts of knots as he tried to explain away his not so easily understood Village Concept!
What appears to have clinched the deal though, was Dr. Kenneth Kaunda’s rather indirect endorsement of Mazoka when he (Kaunda) appeared on one of the last Let the People Talk programmes on Radio Phoenix prior to the election. Kaunda, when asked a very touchy question at the time, as to whether Mazoka had stolen (some say switched) cattle when he was Zambia Railways Managing Director replied “do you think I would not have had him arrested if he had” or words to that effect. That answer put to bed all talk on that subject from then on, effectively clearing Mazoka of any past wrong doing. And when asked who he was endorsing for President, KK gave the audience a choice of three names; Mazoka, Tilyenji (his son) or Nevers Mumba. The populace took that as an endorsement of Mazoka as the other two were in any case not serious contenders. The result? An emphatic win for Mazoka.

Let me get back to the subject of swing provinces in Zambian elections, I am of the view that in this election, predicting outcomes for a number of the provinces will not be easy. For instance, we have seen for the first time, a very determined effort by Hichilema to reach out to areas where his showing in previous elections was very bad. Hichilema, buoyed by the support of such big names as GBM, Mutale Nalumango, Felix Mutati and Morgan Mucheleka among others in Northern Province; and Katele Kalumba, Chief Puta and his Indunas among others in Luapula Province; is set to do infinitely far much better than UPND has ever done before in these areas. The fact that these personalities are on the ground and campaigning even in the absence of Hichilema will definitely result in a very robust showing. There is also no doubt that given the overwhelming support of Copperbelt rural and the discontentment of urban Copperbelt dwellers especially in Chingola, Luanshya and others, with PF neglect; Hichilema is bound to increase his vote in this province very significantly.

Most observers would state that Lusaka, Luapula, Northern and Copperbelt provinces are safe areas for Edgar Lungu going by the previous showing of the PF. This could be so but could equally turn out to be delusional. I say so because what made them safe was Sata’s sheer personality and campaign abilities. Sata was a mover and shaker and carved out a niche for his party singlehandedly and single mindedly. Sata died and with him the PF persona. Edgar does not have Sata’s personality and charisma and whether he can maintain the PF’s strength in these ‘safe’ areas makes for a serious bet. I have already mentioned the expected significantly improved showing of Hakainde in these areas.

Another significant aspect of this election is the ethnicity of the major contenders. A good number of the strong candidates in this race are from Bemba speaking areas, the traditional stronghold of the PF. Whereas the general assumption is that a divided opposition vote favours the ruling party, this may not apply this time around. With Nevers Mumba, Edith Nawakwi and Elias Chipimo all ethnically hailing from the same PF stronghold, Edgar Lungu’s advantage over Hichilema is severely curtailed as he is bound to share this ‘Bemba’ vote with these others. It does not help when campaigns take on an ethnic tone such as Elizabeth Mulobeka’s recent tribal remarks about Bembas voting only for other Bembas. No doubt the fact that Lungu, while enjoying overwhelming Bemba support, is not Bemba, will not be lost on the voter.

Continuing with the ethnic card, the recent support that Edgar has garnered from Rupiah Banda, while appearing to favour Lungu in Eastern Province could turn out to be a poisoned chalice for Lungu. Banda’s support and the rather not well thought out and weak reasons he advanced for his endorsement were not very convincing and the ‘Umodzi ku mawa’ and ‘Wako ni Wako’ tribal connotations could easily be discerned. Does this help Lungu’s overall vote countrywide? Given the adverse reactions from even his closest confidants such as Ambassador Joe Mwale and a good number of Eastern Province MMD MPs, I am inclined to respond in the negative. Banda’s support is also bound to be very suspiciously regarded by the PF rank and file who might well question the wisdom of voting for Lungu.

The rural vote is not homogenous across the country and often follows elements of ethnicity or ethnic associations. This vote comprises mostly of peasant farmers whose concerns are basically those to do with provision of farming inputs and payment for their produce. The PF Government has failed the peasant farmers most of whom have not been paid for the previous farming season and their anger has resulted in riots and demonstrations across the country. It is already a talking point and recent indicators point to the Eastern Province, a major agricultural producer voting against the PF candidate basically as a result of these agricultural failures. This may wipe out any advantage RB’s endorsement of Lungu may have brought to Edgar’s campaign. I would hasten to think that for the first time, this voting block could become homogenous and unanimously vote for Hakainde countrywide. I therefore submit that if there be a real swing vote by block, it could be right here in this paragraph!

I would like to address the issue of the individual top contenders last. Hichilema has so far been in three presidential elections in which on all occasions he came third. He can be considered a veteran of elections and it has started to show.

That he has improved his electoral strategy is very clear. His campaign currently is the most organized, his message consistent and focused and his coverage very wide spread. He started with whistle-stop campaigns in all provinces and followed these up with a concentration of campaigns in areas where he is weak. It is understood that after completing tours in his strongholds of Northwestern, Western, Southern, Copperbelt Rural and large parts of Central Province, he will use the remaining two weeks to do ‘the big ones’ which include Lusaka’s peri urban and Copperbelt urban areas. This format is both strategic and tactical and could well decide the election.

Lungu’s campaign started off shakily having come off a very acrimonious convention that left his party deeply divided. To date the wounds are still fresh and the campaign itself is yet to gather the momentum of his major rival. Another factor working against Lungu is his lack of a message. Almost from the start, Lungu appeared to be unprepared for this election. From admitting to not having a vision of his own, Lungu has bungled his way through the campaign, making the exact same promises Hakainde is making and generally failing to articulate issues in a coherent and cogent way. To be fair to him, he was not ready for the task at hand.
Lungu does not have the luxury of time. From my personal experience of campaign politics, I can say with certainty that Lungu will not be able to sufficiently cover the country in the time remaining. He still has a number of provinces to cover which he hasn’t been to with only two weeks before the election. As I write now, he is just shuttling between Northern/ Muchinga and Eastern Provinces! This could be fatal for his electoral chances given that he is a relatively unkown quantity. There will be areas in this campaign where some people have never heard of him let alone seen him. His opportunity for visibility was further tactlessly squandered when he refused to appear on a ZNBC presidential debate programme.

There are those who think this election is too close to call and that could well turn out to be true. On the balance of my arguments above, I am personally inclined to think that Hichilema currently holds the advantage. I conclude by stating once more that the issues at hand are complex and cannot be reduced to the question of the ultimate winner being one who takes Lusaka and the Eastern Provinces as suggested by Simutanyi.

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57 COMMENTS

  1. Was this article meant to highlight Lungu’s weak points or what? I dont see anything positive about Lungu but all advantages on hh.Yes this election is hard to predict,but the aother forgot so many points,for instance,in 2011,upnd claimed that Chienga had swung hh’s way,the out come was the direct opposite,and to call Nalumango and Mucheleka big names is just insane.

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    • Mealie meal is the basic survival food for the vast majority of Zambian voters. The prices have increased from k35 to k65 since Lungu and his minions came to power while the earning power Zambians is stagnant if not declined. More people wander the streets of Zambia unemployed with a very bleak outlook on their futures.

      Zambia is fed up. Time to usher in new leadership with a clear strategy of improving the lives and futures of all Zambians.

      Viva HH

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    • ….For sure PF’s popularity in Copperbelt, Muchinga and Northern were due to Sata’s persona and HH has entered these Provinces & people have come to LOVE him.

      For sure Lungu disappointed Zambians when he shunned tht debate by EAZ. He SHOULD KNOW THAT HE CAN’T BE SATA neither can he copy his POLITICAL STYLE & TACTICS. Kachasu man is in standing on a half torn rope and soon he will tumble. RB has just hastened his political failure.

      #FLIGHTHH2015 HAPPY JUBILEE ZAMBIA.

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    • Mr Henry Kabinga, your article has shown alot of unreserched and unfounded political assumptions and therefore, it would have been helping for you to present it as WHITE PAPER to UPND members or HH Campaign Team. Ya! I know you really want yo UPND to win this Presidential Bye-election but you need to highlight the basis on how UPND will jump from the 2011 figures to winning numbers and from which Provinces you expect numbers that can improve hour recent 504000. Mind you, we don’t jump into the destiny BUT grow into it.

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    • @Fair judge,

      The author opened his article with a disclaimer that what he is going to discuss in this article and the predictions therefrom are based on his personal observation. That statement trumps everything you said he did not take into consideration.

      Last week I shot a movie that ended up on the floor in the editing studio entitled: Exit the Cobra, Enter the Mantis. I kept on cutting it until there was nothing left to show. Wasted effort. Darn!

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    • Brethren and country men,I SIDO MARK have no doubt what so ever that HH will win on 20th January,2015.Those that have been following my debate will attest that no single prediction I have made have turned different.The wise take a look at 2001 and 2006 and 2008 election results you will notice something similar.the result of 2015 will be a combination of 2001 and 2006 elections.HH will with a good margin and many will be shocked.I say this from a knowledge vantage point.The chicken lie while the wolfs are hunting.

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    • Imwe ba pf,Ba Lusaka Times is anti HH/UPND.Nomba if they tell the truth mwayamba ukulalila.What will happen in 2 weeks?

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    • Very good article Henry! However, you still did not give your opinion on which provinces will swing the election.
      I tend to disagree with you though on your opinion that Eastern will give HH more votes than Lungu because of failed PF agric policies. I still think Lungu will get somewhere around 60% of the vote.

      My swing states are Copperbelt and Luapula. In that should PF get less than 60% of the Copperbelt vote, and HH gets 30% of the Luapula vote, it will be rough for PF. Copperbelt is structured 3, urban, peri-urban and rural. HH seem very strong in peri & rural, and all he needs is about 30% of the Copperbelt urban, so C/B looks good for HH.

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    • @Blago, the author of this piece is very clever in articulating issues. I would be ashamed to make comments or ask questions of this article if I wasn’t prepared enough as you seem to be. I will answer your question from what I have read in this article. There are no swing provinces this time around but voters around the farming fraternity mainly peasant farmers who will swing this election in favour of HH. They are dotted all around the country and they will make the difference. His views may seem biased towards UPND but I will be one of the people standing up in his defence as he has not mentioned anything to do with the 90day promise of the draft constitution, Sata’s demise, PF government’s lack of transparency. Those three issues would be too damning for the PF to put it mildly.

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    • HH may win yes but so may EL, the elephant in the room still remains the very visible infrastructural efforts made by PF, no government after UNIP has ever done so much, and still holds so much in store for infrastructure hope, than PF. Facts are facts. and EL is truly riding this boat.

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  2. This is the BEST ARTICLE IEVER for this week especially these lines and I quote;

    Recent indicators point to the
    Eastern Province, a major agricultural
    producer voting against the PF
    candidate basically as a result of these
    agricultural failures. This may wipe
    out any advantage RB’s endorsement
    of Lungu may have brought to Edgar’s
    campaign. I would hasten to think
    that for the first time, this voting
    block could become HOMOGENEOUS and
    unanimously vote for Hakainde
    countrywide.

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    • Yes well stated like any full blooded supporter of UPND, not an objective analysis. Easterners have always never disappointed on loyalty, they remain loyal to RB and I see them not abandoning their chance to rule again through Lungu , farming implement or not, just like the southerners will not abandon HH, new tarred road or not.

      The analysis by the author is a very poor veil at supporting HH despite the facts

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  3. Kikikiki losers trying to confort themselves with full confidence.He never even metioned that PF has 100Mps campaigning in thier constituencies.What a writer living abroad.You’ve to know that these elections are regional.Bembas speaking and ngonis will vote 4 PF.Bemba speaking pipo won’t let the party to die for ba sata.They loved the bigman.HH is not know in luapula,northern,muchinga and estern.it seems u don’t live in lusaka.Another point which u forgot is that HH came into politics through tribalism.He is labeled as a tribalist being supported by most Tongas.And u know how tonga treat other tribes on working places.In some companies they are even firing shots to fire some pipo when HH wins.My friend writer EL will get more than 50% votes wether u like or not.Lsk ni PF,CB,CP and EP

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    • When you say “whether you like it or not,” do you know something we don’t know?

      Are you planning to rig the elections…. aaaaaaah!

      “You are on knowledge” (muli pa mano).

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  4. The problem with UPND is that they are smart criminals. who can comit a serious crime and still look smart. found with pangas in kasama but they will push it to PF as users of pangas. violent in western province they will push it to PF as a vilont party. They know lungu is wining but they are trying to potray as if they still command a lead in their articles. THESE IS HOW SMART CRIMINALS WORK!

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  5. Best article so far. HH looks better than EL on message n content, style, campaigning strategy, personnel, body language n attractiveness. RB is a huge miscalculation with his funding rumor both he n EL have not addressed.

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  6. Do not ignore the truth becoz nomata what speed you are moving at it will find you. yes you can write good articles, fake opinion polls and paint lungu black the truth which i know is painful is that LUNGU IS WINING

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  7. For sure PF’s popularity in Copperbelt, Muchinga and Northern were due to Sata’s persona and HH has entered these Provinces & people have come to LOVE him.

    For sure Lungu disappointed Zambians when he shunned tht debate by EAZ. He SHOULD KNOW THAT HE CAN’T BE SATA neither can he copy his POLITICAL STYLE & TACTICS. Kachasu man is in standing on a half torn rope and soon he will tumble. RB has just hastened his political failure.

    #FLIGHTHH2015 HAPPY JUBILEE ZAMBIA.

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    • upnd cadres worry not,your hh will win another online election,like has always been the case.The truth is that hh is not salable and a lot of his lieutenants know this,but he literally employs them,they cant cant speak ill or tell their employer something he does not want to hear,which is the truth.Yes hh is popular online,but how many zambian voters have access to the internet? Very few,and of the bloggers,a huge number doesnt vote because they are outside zambia.

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  8. @Zamcab

    It’s your job to dismantle the article if you think it lacks merit. State your well observed flaws and engage in a thoughtful and educated manner. Don’t play defeated; this article was written by someone who clearly thought through issues. You can do the same my friend. Such is what we need in modern times. How does the minister of Justice work with someone his ministry is prosecuting? Where is justice and morality? And we want him to preside over the country? Zambians, Give me a break. Can’t we see through this day-time thievery? If we can’t, we are better off under colonial rule.

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  9. @ Zamcab 8.1 DONT BE CHEATED

    Who knew tht my grandma in Chilubi,Shang’ombo will own a cellphone? Things ve changed my dear, people r WELL INFORMED.

    Edgar HAS NO MESSAGE the reason Father Bwalya & others r again standing on the fence. Even getting a 12% he will b luck. KACHASU man CANT FIT into Sata’s shoes I ve NEVER HEARD him DEBATE in Parley.

    #FLIGHTHH2015 HAPPY JUBILEE ZAMBIA.

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  10. Well articulated article that I ever came across this week. Very objective. Come 21st January we shall know the truth.

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  11. The thesis of this campaign article is very reductive and makes a lot of unfounded assumptions. To even insinuate that Hakainde has a chance in Northern, Luapula let alone Eastern is laughable. The people endorsing hakainde, in these 3 provinces were not factors in the last election, where do they all of a sudden garner the influence that they lacked in the last general election.
    The author stretches the truth by denying the impact of RB on the landscape of these elections. Mr Banda has a national appeal and he not just a factor in Eastern province. He will sway a number of votes nationally. Like it or not Eastern will vote on a tribal line, so eastern is locked in for Lungu.
    Northern province in general will be voting for Sata, in this case Lungu is his proxy.

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  12. Also as ugly as that may sound, most northerners would rather have an Easterner than a Tonga in office. Same goes for Luapula and most of the copperbelt. You are also forgetting that Lungu is from the copperbelt.
    It is true that Hakainde will fair better than last election, but what ever gain he makes and PF loses they will make up from MMD with the influence of RB. Remember they won the election without eastern province last time. Lusaka will be split evenly.

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  13. EL posters are olny found in township taverns, very few people know him in rural areas besides those he has visited so far. EL has a slim chance of winning.

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    • Talking about campaign posters. It is wrong to stick them on commercial billboards or private property like fences without the owners’ permission. All the parties are doing it. Please respect private property, a lot of hard earned money has been spent on these. Put your posters on trees.

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  14. This is the problem with UPND cadres who seem to have a lot of time to waste on their hands evident in this unbalanced article. Please lets talk when we finish counting votes! thank you

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  15. Rupiah support has added more poison to lungu’s chances at least for urban voters who are not cares. Personalities with legal/criminal issues such Rupiah, nsanda, xavior chungu have not helped lungu. Excessive dirty naira and image builders don’t win elections as mmd/Rupiah found out in 2011.

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  16. It is people like you that keep misleading HH. I feel sorry for him. I wish I could join his campaign team and advise him in his face. HH has always been cheated and people are just chewing his money. This is not HH’s election

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  17. Three sides to a coin:
    If you are for HH, very good article.
    If you are for Edgar, the article is a poor analysis.

    If you are “others” like Nevers, it’s misery, ati filamba fyeka fyeka.

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  18. THE AUTHOR STARTED WELL BY CLAIMING THAT IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO ASSUME THAT THIS CANDIDATE OR THAT CANDIDATE WILL WIN ON THE BASIS OF SOME SWING PROVINCES. BUT LATER ON HE GOES ON A SCATHING ATTACK ON ELs POPULARITY VERY CLERLY SHOWING THAT HE IS BIASED. HE GIVES CREDENCE TO HHs ENDOSEMENTS BUT DISMISSES ELs ENDOSEMENTS. I GUESS HE IS ENTITLED TO HIS OWN OPINION. MY PERSONAL OPINION IS THAT ENDOSEMENTS DONT MEAN ANYTHING IN ZAMBIA. THE BEMBA AND LUAPULA CHIEFS ENDOSED RB IN 2011 BUT RB STILL LOST’IN THISE LANDS. IF ANYTHING ITS IN EASTERN PROVINCE WHERE THE VOTERS STICK TO THE SAME CANDIDATE FOR A LONG TIME. AND THEREFORE RB CAN STILL COMMAND SOME FOLLOWING TO ADD TO EL. HH HAS DEFINATELY MADE SOME IN-ROADS IN PFs STRONG-HOLDS. BUT ARE THESE INROADS ENOUGH TO TAKE HIM TO PLOT 1?

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    • Agree, Yes a lot of endorsements mean nothing especially those given by chiefs to the ruling party (remember don’t Kubeba). Or those given by desperate politicians seeking jobs or criminals seeking protection. whether it is to the ruling party or opposition such desparate endorsements amount to nothing! Even a novice can see through them. BUT open endorsements by chiefs to an OPPOSITION candidate who is not of their ethnicity/region should ring alarm bells in the ruling party if they are honest with themselves! It shows a hieghtened level of EXASPERATION with the status quo. Just my thinking though!

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  19. The author is on is a desperate upnd cadre whose interest is seeing hh win the election. unfortunately what he is saying is about 70% wrong. this is completelt lying to himself. we in Ndola rural believe and know from the talk of most of us that Lungu is winning. only when I went chati on the kasempa road, that is when I head a few people talking about hh. so copperbelt rural is certainly for Lungu. sorry to say this.

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  20. After Neo wrote a stupid article, Kabinga a friend of Neo try to amplify the rubish. All these two demagogoes are supprting HH.

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  21. I know Henry was the Chairperson of the Local Government and Housing committee of the UPND at its founding, but both HH and Lungu’s teams will do themselves a favour to study some of his party demographic analysis and take his advice. His personal views echoes what one is able to observe all over the country; and, oh yes, there’s no harm in stating you preference, desire or choice in even an objective article. Objective is given meaning by society. So no need for insults or ridicule. May the beat candidate take the day. HH is my and my people’s desire. We need to see development in all regions, not what ha been happening the last 3 years – take wealth from Northwestern to build other regions.

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  22. Just come out in the open and admit that you are a UPND cadre
    instead of wasting time giving us un-researched information! Continue dreaming you hypocrite.

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  23. ba kabinga niba cadre employed by hichilemas grant thorton as a consultant for councils on basic cash book a project that failed and grant thorton milked money from the government he is a northwesterner and a dislike for bembas i know him too well failed to get a job for solwezi council as df he sings hh and eats hh too tribal inclined he has ka degree from cbu failed at cts in kitwe until he cheated upnd that is an expert in local government lolo niba edgar chabe your arrongance wont work

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    • @ Clement Bwalya
      I can’t help laughing my lungs out. You have added humour to my day. On a serious note, I think it is good for our democracy that we all can freely express ourselves. I invite more comments not only on this analysis but on others I have done and will continue to do. Thank you my friend whoever you are.

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  24. Edgar Lungu all the way. HH is not a politician. UPND is going nowhere. At least not this time around. The article is useless and poorly researched. Team Chagwa.

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  25. Good biased article as it inclined on HH’s strength and EL’s weaknesses! Why has the writer chosen to ignore the sympathy vote and the infrastructure done by the PF. These are factors that can not easily be ignored especially as regards rural voters

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    • Sympathy vote? Are you serious? It was not Levy Mwanawasa who died this time around. Mwanawasa was mobbed when he was alive and when he died people felt guilty for torturing him.
      Look at the violence levels IN FULL VIEW OF THE POLICE being after PF came into power. A UPND Provincial Trust in Mongu is critical after being attacked by a PF thug without a reason and YOU ASK FOR SYMPATHY VOTES. HH will earn sympathy votes if you ask me.

      The author has told you that rural voters are mostly peasant farmers and YOU KNOW WHAT THAT MEANS. They haven’t been paid.

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  26. ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THE PERFOMANCE OF THE PF IN PARLIAMENTARY BY ELECTIONS IN THE PAST 3 YEARS. THE PF HAS WON THE MAJORITY OF THESE BY ELECTIONS. WE ARE ALSO SUPPOSED TO AGREE THAT IT IS HUMAN NATURE TO WANT TO BELIEVE THAT YOUR FAVOURITE CANDIDATE WILL WIN. BUT THIS IS WRONG. WE ALSO NEED TO SUPPORT CANDIDATES BASED ON PRINCIPLE. MY BELOVED CANDIDATE MAY NOT BE THE MOST POPULAR. AND WE NEED TO COME TO TERMS WITH THAT FACT. I WILL VOTE FOR EL. BUT HE IS NOT THE BEST CANDIDATE FOR ME AND FOR MANY OTHERS WHO WILL VOTE FOR HH OR OTHER CANDIDATES. I JUST FIND EL TO BE A “BETTER EVIL”. ALL THE 11 CANDIDATES ARE BAD. BUT FOR ME EL IS LESS BAD. AND HE HAS MORE CHANCES OF WINNING THAN THE REST.

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  27. This article is excellent. You have been very objective and analytical.
    I did not really agree with Simutanyi’s logic on the Eastern and Lusaka win.

    Anyway that aside I want to share that some PF bloggers feel that all those who voted for Sata or RB will vote for EL. It is so unbelievable that someone can think like that. My guess is that they are “hanging onto their jobs” by thinking positive. Does it help? No. The earlier they acknowledge the high possibility of leaving their jobs in the missions abroad the better for them. If EL wins, which I highly doubt, lucky for them altho’ am sure a number will be “purged”.

    As for me, it is

    Viva #FlightHH2015.

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  28. if the bloggers here were voters then HH would win by a landslide margin but judging from the parliamentary by election which have happened already you have your answer as to who will win these elections and the majority Zambian voters don’t have internet and smart phones to buy internet bundles for browsing Zambian watchdog or indeed Lusaka Times. The fact still remains pf will win this election.

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  29. KABINGA’s ARTICLE IS PURELY AN ACADEMIC ONE. ACADEMICS AND PRAGMATICS IN POLITICS DONT JUSTIFY EACH OTHER. RURAL COMMUNITIES MIND SET CAN NEVER BE CHANGFED. FOR THE BEMBAS CAN NEVER VOTE FOR A TONGAS AND VICE VERSA.
    THE TONGAS NO NATTER HOW BRILLIANT AND ARTICULATE ONE MAY BE AS LONG AS HE IS NOT A TONGA HE WOULD NEVER BE VOTED FOR. WHAT SIMUTANYI MEANT IS THAT EASTERNERS ARE AN PREDICTABLE, THEY CAN SWING TO ANY PRESIDENTILA CANDIDATE WHO MAY CONVINCE THEM THAT HE /SHE WILL DELIVER AGRICULTURAL POLICY TO THEIR SATIFACTION.
    DUE TO THE UNPREDICTABLENESS NATURE OF EASTERNERS AND LUSAKA ONE SHOULD WORK TOWARDS CAPTUEING THE TWO PROVINCES IF ONE IS TO WIN.
    EDGAR CAN NOT WASTETIME GOING TO SOUTHERN PTOVINCE WHEN HE KNOWS THE OUT COME JUST AS HH WILL WASTE HIS TIME TI GO MPIKA AND…

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  30. Henry Kabinga your article is brilliant. You have put across your arguments in a clear coherent articulate and scholarly manner. I look forward to reading more from you. You have left the reader with a balanced indepth analysis of the current political and electoral scenario in Zambia with sensible and analytical arguments. You probably have your bais like everyone else yet it is possible to engage your argument without veering into a pointless discussion about your bais. You give me hope for Zambia. Keep it up.

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  31. Very good article Henry! However, you still did not give your opinion on which provinces will swing the election.
    I tend to disagree with you though on your opinion that Eastern will give HH more votes than Lungu because of failed PF agric policies. I still think Lungu will get somewhere around 60% of the vote.

    My swing states are Copperbelt and Luapula. In that should PF get less than 60% of the Copperbelt vote, and HH gets 30% of the Luapula vote, it will be rough for PF. Copperbelt is structured 3, urban, peri-urban and rural. HH seem very strong in peri & rural, and all he needs is about 30% of the Copperbelt urban, so C/B looks good for HH.

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