Monday, February 26, 2024

2015 Election Forecast

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By Michael Chishala

A BIT OF HISTORY

In November 2013, I began a research into past election results in the multiparty era, particularly 2001-2011. My research culminated into a five-part series of articles that I wrote up to May 2014 (see links below).

I made an election forecast for 2016 that showed Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) winning with 39% of the vote, beating Patriotic Front (PF) with 30% and United Party for National Development (UPND) with 25%. Since then, the ground has shifted significantly with the death of President Michael Sata, the internal wrangles in MMD and PF on full public display, and the numerous cases of party leaders enorsing and campaigning for other rival parties.

Naturally, I could not resist making an election forecast for 20th January 2015 and many people had contacted me over the same. I have taken long because I was waiting for the dust to settle down (and there is lots of it). Firstly though, a recap of my findings in my earlier articles based on historical results:

  1. You need 40% to comfortably win an election in a three way race (MMD, PF and UPND). 34% is sufficient if the vote is very split among the Big Three.
  2. PF is strong on the North-East and UPND in the South-West. In 2011, PF got an average of 52% in Luapula, Northern and Eastern while UPND got 45% average in Southern, Western and North-Western. In the South-West, PF got 14% and UPND got 2% in the North-West. In the Center (Lusaka, Central and Copperbelt) PF got 51% and UPND 12%. MMD is the most geographically spread. On average in 2011, they got 43% (North-East), 34% (South-West) and 35% (Center). UPND has been the most “regional” party of the big three.
  3. By-elections are not a reliable predictor of a future by-election for reasons explained in Part Five of my series.
  4. PF improved over 4 elections while UPND and MMD declined, especially from 2006 onwards.
  5. The 2001 election is not very useful for extrapolation purposes because it was highly fragmented with the other 8 parties besides MMD, PF and UPND getting 41% which was eventually shared out among them.
  6. From 2006, the minor parties have not gone above 5% of the vote.
    Registered voters by province in 2011
    Registered voters by province in 2011
  7. The statistical results of 2001-2011 show that UPND has a massive uphill battle to win the 2015 or 2016 elections because of their poor showing in high population areas. The five biggest electoral provinces (Copperbelt, Lusaka, Eastern, Northern and Southern) account for 70% of the electorate and UPND has been doing poorly in 4 of these. Their last results in 2011 were 4% Copperbelt, 11% Lusaka, 3% Eastern, 1% Northern and 71% Southern. Hakainde Hichilema has actually declined marginally in Southern Province from 74% in 2006 to 71% in 2011.

THE HISTORICAL CHARTS

2011 presidential elections by province
2011 presidential elections by province
MMD presidential results 2001-2011
MMD presidential results 2001-2011
PF presidential results 2001-2011
PF presidential results 2001-2011
PF presidential results 2001-2011
PF presidential results 2001-2011

PRELIMINARY COMMENTS ON THE 2015 ELECTION FORECAST

Without further ado, let us get to the meat of the 2015 election forecast. I based my forecast on two things. The historical statistics and a qualitative evaluation of the new factors that have emerged. The former is fairly easy while the latter is more difficult because the various factors have had in many cases both a positive and negative effect and they do not apply equally everywhere.

This is where I have seen many pundits miss it. They make a forecast based on a single factor such as Rupiah Banda’s endorsement of Edgar Lungu without realizing that while the financial and campaign support may be good for Lungu, there are many who opposed Banda for his alledged corruption and they are not amused that he has been publicly embraced by Lungu. They can deduce that Banda is not supporting Lungu for nothing and that whatever “deal” was agreed between them cannot have anything good in it for the nation.

Others talk about the PF “unprecedented infrastructure development” as the reason Lungu will win but again, this development has not been equal everywhere. Some projects have been abandoned due to lack of funds such as the Ndola township roads which may be a negative. The building of two universities in Muchinga Province may excite the locals there but the same thing has upset the people of North-Western province who are producing the Copper that is funding the consruction.

There are also vast differences between rural and urban populations whereby for example, the increasing price of mealie meal may upset urban dwellers but have little effect in rural farming populations where they grow their own food. The failure to pay farmers on time for their maize has upset the farming blocks but not as much in other provinces.

THE METHODOLOGY

In Mathematics, trend lines that are derived from historical data are useful to predict future outcomes. This is the most important tool I used in my forecast although it has its limitations because trends can only hold if the factors contributing to them remain more or less constant. If significant new factors emerge, you have to re-evaluate and try to compensate.

So for example, UPND always gets over 70% since 2001. I can safely predict this trend will continue because none of the recent events shall significantly alter the trajectory of UPND. Most people have boiled it down to tribal voting in Southern Province although by the same token, Hichilema does poorly in the North and East and this shall continue.

I have combined the trend lines with an assessment of how I think the new factors have affected the vote. I assessed the factors province by province and in some cases by constituency. I also considered the rural versus urban vote.

THE ASSUMPTIONS

  1. The voters roll has reduced by 10% due to deaths and migrations which ECZ has not captured. Since we are using the 2011 voters roll, there shall be 4,650,439 registered voters.
  2. Voter turn out shall be 50%, meaning there shall be about 2.3 million ballots cast. Rupiah Banda’s by election had 45% turnout in the dry season. Voting in the rains can potentially produce low turnout which can be offset by the anger many people feel against PF.
  3. The Big Three (MMD, PF and UPND) shall account for 95% of the votes with 5% going to the rest.
  4. Large swings of 25% or more in voting patterns after only 3 years are unlikely in a 3 way race.
  5. MMD has been weakened by being out of power and by the internal rebellions it has faced.
  6. PF shall be evaluated more critically than before.
  7. The PF is unlikely to maintain the 42% it got last time.

THE FACTORS

  1. The PF record. PF has made many poor decisions and their record seems to have many more bad things than good. Their much vaunted infrastructure programs are largely a continuation of what MMD started but the positives have been totally offset by the increasing cost of living, lawlessness of their cadres, declining press and personal freedoms, unstable economic policies, excessive expenditure, perceived nepotism and tribalism in appointments and alleged corruption.
  2. The cost of living. Although mentioned above, it is a major factor on its own. It will affect PF negatively. The recent drop in fuel prices have not yet made a sufficient impact to change people’s minds to favour PF.
  3. Tribal voting. Zambia appears to be slowly becoming more polarized on tribal lines as Northerners and Southerners trade accusations and insults. Well known leaders making tribal comments at rallies such as Daniel Munkombwe have not helped matters. There is a perception that the Bantu-Botatwe (Tonga, Ila and Lenje) may rally behind Hichilema just to make sure they shift the balance of power from the North-East. The Northerners may react negatively to this and dig in their heels although it seems they are divided at the moment between Edgar Lungu and Nevers Mumba.
  4. Defections, mutinies and endorsements. These will impact negatively on MMD the most as their party structures have been deeply compromised. Defections from MMD will partly boost UPND and PF. However, the converse may also be true. MMD may become stronger as bad eggs are removed and the grassroots rally behind the party leader. UPND and PF may be judged as going the wrong way for embracing people from MMD that have a history of corruption and/or violence. The Banda endorsement of Lungu shall have a mixed effect.
  5. President Michael Sata’s death. This will elicit a sympathy vote in the North but probably will not matter much in the South-West. It is hard to tell the effect in the Center.
  6. Unpaid farmers. Central, Eastern and Southern are the biggest farming blocks, making 34% of the electorate and they will punish PF for not paying them on time for their maize. The fiasco in Eastern Province over cotton and tobacco means Edgar Lungu winning in the East is far from assured (it is infact unlikely).
  7. Campaign effort. UPND and PF have had a much better organized campaign than MMD. UPND had a head start of just over a week. MMD was the last, owing to the Supreme Court case that ruled in favour of Nevers Mumba after about a month of legal wrangles.
  8. Miscellaneous.

a) Urban dwellers are less likely to be impressed than rural voters with roads and other infrastructure development. Urban centers are already more built up that adding a road or two is hardly noticed. In villages, tarring the road going through it is a big deal.

b) Cadre violence is more prominent in the urban centers where PF is stronger. If the urban dwellers get fed up with it, PF are disadvantaged.

c) Lusaka and Copperbelt traditionally go to the opposition more quickly than other regions. They account for 31% of the electorate. Sata got 51% of his votes from there. A loss of 20 percentage points in either region may prove catastrophic for PF.

d) MMD has 37 sitting MPs, of which about half are supporting either UPND or MMD. They have already been earmarked for expulsion.

THE FORECAST

After running the numbers using the best-case-scenario for each party, I then consolidated the results into what I consider the most likely outcome overall. The numerical result shows the PF barely winning the election with 34.7%, MMD coming runner up with 31.0% and UPND third at 29.3%. The margin of error is ±3%. The overall result is a statistical dead heat, meaning that any one of the 3 parties can win.

2015 Election Forecast
2015 Election Forecast
2015 Election Forecast by province
2015 Election Forecast by province

MMD coming second will be surprising to many people since they are not considered a factor. However, this perception is not backed by the numbers. PF is unlikely to remain at 42% due to their poor record the last 3 years. MMD has weakened but is likely to improve in some PF strongholds like Copperbelt and Lusaka which are quick to embrace the opposition.

UPND will be the greatest beneficiary of the move towards the opposition but because they are starting from a much lower base of 18% in which they do badly in 5 key provinces (Copperbelt, Lusaka, Eastern, Luapula and Northern), they need a very large swing in order to win. Large swings in 5 provinces at the same time seem unlikely, especially in the two northernmost provinces where UPND got less than 1% on average.

MMD already has a support base all over the nation and although they will lose votes, they will also gain from the weakening of PF. It is not possible for all the people abandoning PF to go to UPND. UPND needs to win the South-Western region by an average of 62% while getting over 30% in both Lusaka and Copperbelt in order to carry the day. They also have to hope that if people abandon PF, only a few will go to MMD.

PF is the incumbent party so it seems unlikely its support base will vote for other parties in sufficiently large numbers. Finally, PF got a lot of its supporters from MMD and it seems a large chunk of them will be more comfortable going back to MMD where they are known than go to a completely different party like UPND.

CONCLUSION

PF has a bit of an advantage over the other parties but it is small and it is very possible they will be defeated. MMD can rise from the ashes and possibly win. UPND does not yet have the numbers to win nationally because of their concentration in the South-West. They need to move significant numbers in Lusaka and Copperbelt.


Michael Chishala is just an ordinary Zambian citizen. Contact him at michael (at) zambia (dot) co (dot) zm.


POSTSCRIPT

The blatant immorality in Zambian politics has vindicated Dr Nevers Mumba’s message of the necessity of morality and integrity in political leaders. We have seen absurd things like people wearing an MMD headscarf with a PF chitenge or UPND T-Shirt as they have a fist in one hand and “The Hour” symbol in the other. This is total madness.

Therefore, I endorse Nevers Mumba for president.

Happy voting.

 

108 COMMENTS

    • I have seen it! Its EL and not HH! Believe you me my dear by 22 30 hrs today, the PF camp will be on the dancing floor balepuma amasha! God bless our beautiful country!

    • Lungu’s campaign has focused on tapping into the grassroots support base of Sata, a populist leader from the majority Bemba tribe who won over the working class by funding infrastructure projects in poor, rural areas.

      Hichilema, one of Zambia’s wealthiest businessmen known locally as “HH”, says his experience in the private sector will help him encourage foreign investment and diversify the southern African state’s copper-dependent economy.

      Zambia, the continent’s biggest copper producer after Democratic Republic of Congo, has been one of the world’s best performing economies in the last decade, averaging 6-7 percent growth as the mining sector boomed.

      But growth slowed to 5.5 percent last year, the International Monetary Fund says..CTN

    • Long analysis but poorly written. How do you make a an election without reference to any single survey or opinion poll?How do you say Mutati, Mucheleka, Nalumango, Katele and GBM have had no effect on UPND support in Luapula and Northern province without reference to any poll. And yet the writer says RB has hard a huge effect on Lungu`s support in Eastern Province without citing any poll.
      And the guy gives MMD 31%. Is the guy living under a rock?!

    • What do any one expected looking at the name of the author. It is sad we have attained such levels of regionism. Even before one completes reading the conclusion is known

  1. Hey mate, it isn’t the weather for you to forecast – people are just fed up with PamaFI! Tomorrow is anew day in Zambian politics, it will be a day to celebrate our 50th year anniversary properly!!

    First act of HH should be to DISSOLVE Parliament so that we really get rid of the mess that calls itself PF!!

    • UPND always ahead of yourselves the next president (which isEL by the way) will have no mandate to desolate parliament. .that why your always lose…you chaps are always confused about what is important issues

    • Campaigns are now OVER, but the BATTLE isn’t yet!

      The new battlefield is THE PARALLEL VOTER TABULATION (PVT), all those assigned to this duty, your job starts now!! DO NOT LOSE SIGHT OF THOSE BALLOT BOXES come Rain or Shine, Hunger or desparation to do Number 1 or 2 – take turns BUT DO NOT LOSE SIGHT of those boxes!!
      BE THERE TO WITNESS EACH BALLOT COUNTED!!
      NO Helicopter or Plane should take-off without one of you on board!!
      FILM EVERTHING HAPPENING AROUND YOU WITH YOUR SMART PHONES!! Make sure they have enough battery charge!!

    • I actually happen to know Chishala personally and I have to say I am disappointed by his analysis. The most critical aspect of Opinion polls or election forecasts is be objective and not allow your own personal bias to cloud your objectivity, Michael has failed in that respect. He may be correct about PF and Lungu winning but he definitely not correct about the second place position. Mumba will be lucky to even come out third in these elections, watch out for Nawakwi. The Pentecostal vote will go to Mumba but it is too small to make a difference in this election. Mumba May get 10% of the vote on the copperbelt and maybe 8% in Northern Province. He may actually turn out to be a spoiler for Lungu on the copperbelt and in Northern. If he gets good numbers in this provinces then HH wins.

    • FILM the Ballot Boxes at close Quarters, aiming for particular identification marks, film them ONCE THEY ARE SEALED & send Photos to you colleagues at the final counting centres who can then verify if boxes have been tampered with or not especially if the squealing about not enough space on the chopper is the main reason you can’t accompany the boxes, God-forbid!

    • UPND Cabinet
      HH President
      Mutale Nalumango VP
      Felix Mutati Home Affairs
      Depak Patel commerce and Industry
      Suresh Disai Agric
      GBM Transport and communication
      Charles Milupi finance
      Maureen Mwanawasa UN representative

    • @Michael Chishala for sure washala iwe as you can’t feel the surge for change. The blanket is being swept under you feet as you languish with your spreadsheets that are meaningless. What makes you think MMD would win this election? If UPND was a regional party, then how do you explain the strong presence of HH and team in Northern, Luapula and Eastern provinces in this campaign trail? The paper on which you have printed your useless conclusion cannot even be used as toilet paper in the villages because you are the people who keep tarnishing the image of Tonga people in Zambia. You are bigoted and that is my conclusion. You have posted this rubbish with a view of throwing spanners in the works of the UPND in your last attempt to destruct the masses that are voting for HH. Too late!

    • Tongas are like the Germans
      ——————————————–

      Tongas are like Germans. Hard working yet loathed.
      The Germans are the breadbasket of Europe and no wonder they are the number one economy in Europe. On the other hand the Tongas are the breadbasket of Zambia putting food on most ZAMBIANS table in the form of Nshima and beef. The Tongas work hard in the farming fraternity to provide the staple food that the country depends on and yet they are rebuked. Just like their counterparts (Germans) they are trustworthy and do not tolerate underhand dealings and are uncompromising to such traits. The Tongas rear cattle for milk but are laughed at by the groups that go hunting rats, apes and eat creep crawlies (ifinkubala) for food. Judge yourselves before judging others.

    • Oh my God, dissolve Parliament? You are dreamers! HH will not win and shall never win. People have spoken today.

      Ifintu NI Lungu mu Plot 1

    • @One Hit Flop…your comment is exactly why people like you bring the good name of a whole people the shame of tribalism..you say the Tonga People are like the Germans, please elaborate further??? Your comment is dangerous mwana. As for me I respect and love my Tonga brothers such as Brian Hapunda PF Publicity Secretary a true comrade of unequaled commitment, patriotism and intellect that I personally would like to see hold a higher office in PF maybe even the top office one day Godwilling!!!!

    • @2020 vision, I make no apologies as there is no bigotry in the statement I made. It’s your lack of understanding of the content that’s got you going as we all know your comments have always be derogative and that’s why that statement in it’s factual base has bruised your small and fragile ego. We all just have to go to the archives to retrieve some of the the diatribe that you have spat on this fora in the past and if you dispute I can make it my homework to mine that data and bring it to the fore for all to see. I am not Zambian per se but I would like to believe I have contributed a lot to your country and still do.

    • @One Hit flop…you know crybabies like yourself start seeing things which aren’t there just so they can comfort themselves..copy and paste a link that will show I used derogatory tribal remarks..I will call the odd numbskull like YOU a cretin and I will call UPND a bunch of TRIBALISTS and spot on I will point out why I call them tribalists, but no where have I ever insulted any tribe on this forum..you on the other hand are just bitter and in the words of another blogger probably a frustrated “toilet cleaner abroad”…hey I respect people regardless of their vocation but don’t pretend to be high and mighty when back home you failed to cope and now just want to bring anarchy by way of your repetitive hate speech that you vomit…YOUR WELCOME!!!! (All that without a swear word)

  2. It is too late, HH obtained extra 20% from Mandevu rally, making 68% win. God can’t be PF.
    HH will win, Ba sir Chisala your classroom research is good one for your grade 11 students.

    • Nostradamus, you can be respectful in your response to Michael. He used statistical analysis. Why not challenge his reasoning with your own analysis? Just a word of observation.

  3. One thing I like about the article is that the UPND is the most regional party in the whole universe. This is the only kind of election in which this Bantustan party can win any party in the known universe

  4. Whatever school you went to Chishala must have been taught in a tribe. Things have changed my friend, you do not have to be paid to come up with a cheap uneducated analysis. Education in Zambian needs to be transformed, you can tell the chap is educated in those briefcase colleges. HH is winning, mark my word if you were paid don’t use that money you might be required to make a refund, Chagwa will need any little bit of it. After today Chagwa won’t even have friends on money spend on a beer, all those debits, wait a minute.

    • Actually, I shared a house at Manchester University with Mr Chishala. One thing I know is that he is an original thinker and always thinks outside the box. He will put holes in seemingly watertight hypotheses.

  5. This impostor Micheal Chisahala is actuaally Emmanuel Mwamba, HH is winning, I am bemba, I don’t do bemba analysis, this is how cheap you are. HH is getting the instrument, you will be shocked by a big smile from Guy Scott. I am sure Scott is a smart guy, he never wanted this vision-less Chagwa to be near state house, the90 days would have been a big mess. Vote HH, get going.

    • Sorry that’s wishful thinking. I personally know Michael. I’m proud to say he was my housemate at Manchester University!

  6. MR. CHISHALA YOUR ANALYSIS OF THE PF PERFORMANCE IS CORRECT BUT TO SAY THAT PF IS GOING WIN IS FAULTY. THE ANALYSIS ON MMD IS EQUALLY FAULTY. MMD IS SAID TO HAVE NO POLLING AGENTS DUE LACK OF FUNDING. UPND IS WINNING THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE. SOME PF MEMEBERS WILL VOTE FOR THE OPPOSITION IN PROTEST AGAINST R. BANDA’S PRESENCE.

    • @Wisdom Calls Out MR CHISHALA HAS GIVEN REASONS. BUT YOU HAVE NOT GIVEN ANY. PLEASE DO NOT THINK THAT THE CROWDS ATTENDING RALLIES ARE THE ONES THAT WILL VOTE FOR YOU. THE SAME PEOPLE ATTENED DIFFERENT RALLIES. PF HAS DEFINATELY LOST SOME MEMBERS. BUT WILL THAT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE THEM TO LOSE THE ELECTION? AND UPND HAS DEFINATELY GAINED SOME VOTERS. BUT WILL THAT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE THEM TO WIN THE POLLS? LETS WAIT AND SEE. I THINK AFTER 22 HOUR THE VOTES WILL START POURING OUT.

    • HHs story will be like Morgan Chagwirai. If he losses 2015, he has to allow other people within his party to run next year.

  7. Chishala, I respect your right to put up such an opinion. No doubt it takes a lot of effort and time to make up such a logical flow. As such, its only fair to recognize your work. Unfortunately, we are constrained on this day to debunk it because on most points its flawed.

    Good effort though.

  8. Let’s not insult the man, that’s how he sees things. However, I think he has underestimated the gains HH has had in Northern where The Bashilubemba are up in arms looking for one short woman professor. There is no way MMD can come second because the same structures they have are bring used by UPND and PF. Also this regional voting is slowly coming to an end, although much still needs to be done

  9. The other thing that Ba Chisala forgot is the rains. He needed to increase his margin of error to 10%. It’s raining cats and dogs in Mongu where I went cast my vote. But I was surprised that people are lining up. Only people who want to vote out a government do such things I think. My worry is the rural based people. HH is still winning these elections. If he doesn’t then definitely second

  10. IT IS A WASTE OF TIME TO DWELL ON THESE PREDICTIONS. GO AND VOTE. VOTE PLEASE. YOU CAN DO YOUR ANALYSIS AFTER THE VOTES ARE COUNTED.

  11. Chishala

    Your study approach is neither qualitative nor quantitative and by no means mixed. Your article could have been shorter and to the point had you used a clear research method. You could have helped yourself by spending a little more time on clarifying how the numbers have shifted and the factors responsible for that shift. That would have made your forecast more credible than the quick transition you made when you moved from assumptions to the most probable outcome without clearly stating the basis of your prediction. The results you tendered could not be said to have been driven the heavy numerology you presented. If you wanted numbers to help you, present them and then explain them. Finito!

  12. The analysi is correct in some sense but wrong on Eastern Province. The problem with you reseachers is that, you base your analysis on the hear say and not get the prevailing facts on the ground. I can assure you that, ever since Ruphia endorsed Edgar, 65% of the eastern vote is going to EL. Am not an eastern but i work here and i travel almost to all the district during my routine work and i have seen how prople even in the village have shifted to Edgar. Take note of this. For your own information, Ruphia is a factor in this election compared to Katele, GBM, Nalumango, Mutati. The later have not really made an impact in terms of shifting the the mindset of the people in the north from PF. Yes they may have taken roughly 10% from PF but that is not enough to put a damage to PF in the North

    • Did you just say Lungu is taking 65% of the Eastern vote?! Then he is headed for an uphill battle. He needs 80% of the Eastern vote.

    • @ 22 Hamududue

      But Eastern Province is only a slice of the pie. If he can manage it, let EL amass even 100% of the vote in Eastern Province. It still won’t be the real factor. We know he will do well in Eastern Province. That is not the real story.

      The story is how RB is no longer a factor elsewhere in the country. And how that gets reflected in this election. The real question is whether the fall-out from MMD is going to swing the way of PF or UPND.

      In my view, UPND holds the edge in other former MMD strongholds besides Eastern Province. As a matter of fact, I expect UPND to do better even in Eastern Province than it did in 2011 for the very same reason.

  13. For your information Guys I have just Voted for Edigar LUngu. Now my prediction,

    EL -PF wins by over 50%
    HH-UPND takes the second position with 35%

    Mumba-MMD takes the third with 18%

    Peace and Prosperity for Mother Zambia.

  14. Its over for PF and Edgar . Die cast and thats how Zambia got clean and level headed!!

    1. HH 47.5%
    2. EL 33.2%
    3. NM 16.7%
    4. EN 5%
    5. HP 1.2%
    6. Narep 1.1%
    7. The rest share the remaining

    This is if PF really do well otherwise the margin maybe higher between HH and EL

  15. I have just voted now ,

    My prediction,

    EL-PF wins by over 50%

    HH-UPND will be second with 35 %

    Mumba-MMD third with 18%.

    Peace and Prosperity to Mother Zambia.

  16. If we are talking about statistics, the PF will emerge as winners in these elections with a big margin, if it’s miracles that we are using for predictions, the UPND might win.

    • Remember that there are 3 kinds of lies. Small ones, commons one and statistics. I do not wish to dispute Chishala’s analysis. This is an academic exercise and I am a molecular biochemist by training. But judging from the mood at the polling station where I just came from casting a vote, I would rather wait for Friday to say for sure who is the winner. For now, I hope HH, the guy I just voted for wins.

  17. Ba Chishala, your analysis is largely based on historical trends despite your attempts to bring in recent events. As you have admitted, it is difficult to do that without any hard data. But your endorsement of Nevers Mumba required you to come up with an estimate of statistical bias as it negates most of your seemingly objective analysis. Otherwise, it is a good effort.

  18. Michael Chishala,

    Your inferential is totally out of context. You cant tell me that MMD will come second in these by-elections. You missed the numbers or there was something in your computational model. You should have taken into account the “swing” from MMD…remember that this swing is more biased to UPND than PF. You rightly put it that C/Belt historically has a tendency to align itself to the opposition and if this is the case, the most likely scenario is that C/Belt voters will drift toward UPND. By the way you didn’t talk about the rural votes…..the late payment to farmers effect is also likely to give UPND an advantage. The 2 outlier provinces (Lusaka and C/Belt) will determine the winner, you and i knows very well at the moment the “feel” of the masses in these 2…

  19. UNBELIEVABLE ACT BY ECZ TO POLICE OFFICERS
    its unbelievable that all the officers sent to provide security in polling stations have been denied a chance to cast a vote. the number is slightly over 5000 from different parts of the country.
    there is no reason why the ECZ have instructed all districts not to issue voting certificates to Police officers.
    my appeal is, may someone do something to avoid vote franchise. this is total evil and an infringement to human rights .
    May ECZ contact Mr. Siandenge the in charge of OPERATION IN THE POLICE SERVICE TO GET A COMMENT FROM HIM.
    ECZ and concerned Zambians TREAT THIS BLOG SERIOUSLY OR ELSE YOU BECOME IRRELEVANT TO THE DEMOCRATIC PROCESS OF ZAMBIA.
    CONCERNED OFFICER.

  20. This whole thing has nothing to do with statistical predictive modelling, at best a “learned opinion” – just GO AND VOTE and you have your a priori 🙂 Today will show whether zambians as a people are still “hero worshipers” or whether the Jubilee meant taking US TO THE NEXT LEVEL ! No hunger, sound schools, health institutions, professional judiciary, army, police,diplomatic service, a constitution to stand the next 50 years as a democracy, ZERO tolerance of corruption and abuse of office, kleptomania, a lean learned government etc…VOTE WISELY, it is a seal of approval as to what future you wish to have. Maybe soon we can also vote in the diaspora, lest embassies remain luxury holidays for the “chosen” diplomats…

  21. UPND has clearly under performed as rightly displayed in the 2011 election in Eastern (3%), Northern (1%), Luapula (1%) and C/belt (4%) giving an average of 2% in these critical provinces. Clearly is the trend stays the same, UPND cannot even make a distant third.

    However, has UPND done anything to reverse the poor performance in these provinces? And if with this poor performance UPND was third, what will happen if they improve their performance to capture even 10% average in these provinces. That is the sucker punch we may see UPND unleash.

  22. In my opinion this is a very well researched analysis The outcome will not be too different from this. Just on what could happen on the voters who have lost confidence in PF; it could also work out that they go for UPND as a protest; just to punish PF> This can be enhanced by the outlook of things where UPND have looked to be more vibrant during the campaigns and from the way they have conducted their campaigns one would put them ahead of MMD and therefore all those who want to punish PF may just fall on UPND as the seemingly closest rival. otherwise intelligent analysis by Chishala.

    • @ 34 Jasonbotha

      “..Well researched” or merely regurgitated? No brain was used at all, unless if it should be that of a monkey.

  23. This is a very faulty quantitative analysis. Please disclose your sources of data for the 2015 election. There is no way Mumba is getting 31%, absolutely no way. If anything, 3/4 of the MMD votes have shifted towards UPND and then you factor in the Wynter Rainbow party which has taken a lot of PF supports. Lungu is nowhere near the popularity the late MCS enjoyed and had gained over the 10 of being in opposition. There is no way Lungu is going through, absolutely no way. The 2015 election is HH if the votes are not tempered with by Lungu.

    • @ 36.1 Mei Matungu

      Rather, must I say that PF has a broken spinal cord! It is not the 2011 PF that we are having to deal with in 2015. It is a PF that has been devastatingly incapacitated.

  24. How dull can one be in spending so much time misunderstanding mathematics like this. Your assumptions are completely out of touch with reality as you will soon find out

  25. The analysis has a fatal error, in that there is no province where MMD can emerge victorious. This is because people may like MMD but they will not vote for Nevers, as he is simply unvotable just like Kabimba was in PF.
    The author needs to reallocate the votes for MMD to other parties, and that is what will determine the result.

  26. One important factor which Chishala overlooked is party loyalty. This involves the strong emotional bond supporters have with their parties. Regardless of the deficiencies their party may exhibit, loyalists will always support it. This is akin to belonging to a family or supporting your football team. Diehard supporters will die for their clubs or families even if they are not going to materially benefit from the support. Have heard of Captain Robert Mukengami of Livingstone, the loyal supporter of UNIP from cradle to the grave? There are thousands of such loyalists in all political parties. Try telling these fanatics not to vote for their beloved party because of weakness A, and they will tell you to jump into the Indian Ocean!!

  27. I like the analysis in the article and I enjoyed reading it, Michael well done and it is good to note how the numbers are done and show that any of the three parties can win. The goodness is that numbers do not lie and simply give the actual scenario. May the best team win.

  28. Good article with a lot factors considered, however I want to urge you all to go and vote now

    GO and VOTE NOW

    then we can interact later. GO

  29. Your evaluations on MMD for this elections are completely out forecast. You have also under rated UPND. Anyway you will have a better focus after this election.

  30. Long analysis but poorly written analysis. How do you make a an election without reference to any single survey or opinion poll?How do you say Mutati, Mucheleka, Nalumango, Katele and GBM have had no effect on UPND Support in Luapula and Northern province without reference to any poll. And yet the writer says RB has hard a huge effect on Lungu`s support in Eastern Province without citing any poll.

  31. In as much as we follow the above technical analysis by chishala the conclusion is flawed Yes yes the skewness in voters distribution for HH is negative to near normal making it impossible for HH to win a national quality election

    PF will win with Edgar lungu taking away those votes by 62% and HH 32% chiefly on fundamental analysis MMD will be giving away votes to PF since weaker candidate in the same way HH will also

    The absolute mean deviation of votes between MMD and PF historically points to the shift and advantage of PF

    Historically analysis of variances between PF MMD and UPND favours PF Edgar Lungu

    Unfortunately Lupia Banda has also added some to PF

  32. Chishala yr conclusion i dont agree.

    Your conclusion that PF will carry the day contradicts the entire assessment u made b4 the prediction. You mentioned more points in favor of HH and a lot of negatives against Edgar Lungu, but then you conclude that Lungu will win! This is contradictory. Further lets take the example of a car running along a road. If the driver sees no danger in front of him you can expect that he will take longer to stop if he wants to stop, say 3 minutes. But the same driver if he sees danger in front and needs to stop suddenly, the driver can do so within 30 seconds. This is th point u missing when u say the vote for HH cannot suddenly swing from 18% to say 42% and win. Pipo hv seen danger in PF and will stop suddenly to change direction to HH please!!!!

  33. Eastern Province is only one slice of the pie. If he can manage it, let Edgar Lungu get his bumper harvest of 100% of the vote in Eastern Province. It still won’t be the real factor. We know he will do well in Eastern Province any way. That is a given.

    The story is how RB and MMD are no longer a factor elsewhere in the country. And how that gets reflected in this election. The real question is whether the fall-out from MMD is going to swing the way of PF or that of UPND.

    In my view, UPND holds the edge in other former MMD strongholds besides Eastern Province. As a matter of fact, I expect UPND to do better even in Eastern Province than it did in 2011 for the very same reason. PF on the other hand, will do poorly almost everywhere than it did in 2011.

  34. Good analysis but by saying PF barely winning the election with 34.7%, MMD coming runner up with 31.0% and UPND third at 29.3%. because Lusaka and Copperbelt usually go for opposition this has not yet come may be 2016 or 2021 because tabalatendwa PF. Of course there might some reduction.
    Further more, to put MMD coming runner up with 31.0% is not correct because almost all of their supporters are either for HH or PF little left with them.

  35. Hey Micheal keep up the scientific approach, this is where the level arguement or analysis needed away from low level party cadres debilitating debates.

    Micheal, though I agree with trend analysis, I feel yourconclusion does not account for retired ex president comeback in RB dethroning incubant, what did that mean of Nevers appeal? For the first time Mps in large number of Mps from one party (mmd) endorsing HH without an alliance. And H H surge in support from high profile politicians across the floor? It’s a close call yes but with former party in the distant but a two horse race.

    But hey Micheal don’t worry, we are commenting with hindsight or just being wiseafter. Kudos to you.

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