By Amos Chanda
The EIU has never said will win but PF has won twice.
In 2006 they predicted a PF win but PF lost!
In 2008 they also predicted UPND would win but MMD won and PF was second.
In 2011 they predicted a win for RB who they praised as a moderate western trained economist who had shown remarkable leadership during a difficult time of economic recession… RB lost and PF won (https://www.lusakatimes.com/2010/03/30/economist-intelligence-unit-report-zambia-predicts-rbs-reelection-2011/).
In 2015 they predicted an easy opposition victory over the divided PF and that praised the “impartiality” of the acting president in handling the campaigns. The opposition lost and PF won.
At the centre of the EIU analysis is the notion that a western leaning capitalist-thinking candidate must win and for them Sata and EL are less western thinking than RB AND HH respectively.
For them the judgement of a white man Scott and ex banker Miles is better than the judgement say of Samuel Mukupa, Davies Chama, Dora Siliya, Vincent Mwale etc… Zambians voters do not think like EIU analysts?
How would a Scott and or Sampa endorsement of 2016 differ from their endorsement of 2015 though not openly done?
Scott told British newspapers he expected the opposition to win…
How will UPND win elections when it is still clear that they will still fail to get a single parliament seat in the whole of Muchinga North Luapula and Eastern provinces?
How would they win when they have lost by elections in western province in the last one year 11 to 5 for local elections and 1 to zero for parliament that is Mulobezi?
They have lost all by elections in the east north and Luapula that have taken place since 2015? Where would this sudden victory come from?
The EIU seem oblivious to the electoral demographics that starkly suggests that the people of the north are as just as unlikely to vote UPND as those from the are against the PF.
Sadly, for UPND the PF has unassailable support on six out of 10 provinces: East North Muchinga Luapula CB and Lusaka! Even assuming as expected that some support would reduce in some urban areas, how would that drop say from the over 70 percent to below 50?
But all that aside what is most unreliable about the EIU predictions is that they have never predicted a PF victory! And as you read further the report says “whichever party wins” there will be no major policy change… “whichever” is an operative word here not UPND!
The report alleges PF is “deeply divided” between who and who? Sampa and Scott have always been against EL and have done very little to help.
Ever since the so called defections started one can only point to Mwaliteta the rest are MMD MPs who formally joined the UPND.
At the 2015 polls all those campaigned for HH… which divisions is the EIU talking about?
Amos, already packed and ready to go in to dustbin of political and moral failures?
August 11th is around the corner, I have a voters card and I am voting for ECL, who are you voting for?
Is Amos a PF or govt spokesperson. What are his qualification. He writing style sucks; full of silly grammatical errors. His judgment is poor. The country is experiencing xenophobic attacks on foreigners and he brings out his racists views in this piece. Shame!!
Who does Amos work for PF or GRZ…he is out of bounds!!
GOOD ANALYSIS AMOS,THAT’S THE REALITY ON THE GROUND.PF IS WINNING AGAIN.
PF should have sold plans to reverse the damage they have done in the last 12 months or so. When liquidity on the market was as low as K450m instead of about K1.3 – 2billion per day. The damage of such economic games is that sales fall below sustainable levels economically for many business houses. One of the business people who have been knocked off their feet are the cross-border traders. The outcome of all these is simple, excess dollars on the market hence the Kwacha appreciating. The sad part is that such appreciation is not based on real economic growth hence difficult to sustain.
Amos remember you are a civil servant so don’t abuse your position.
Am tempted to ask does this cadre civil servant even have a Grade 12 certificate?He calls himself a journalist reading through this article makes one believe that leakages are real.And he calls this an analysis?Was he drunk when writing.
EIU is a credible outfit on EU economic trends as far as predictions are concerned, but they keep sounding like a counterfeit Intelligence outfeit on African affairs. In Zambia they seen to be victims of some intelligence tricksters. They report on highly flawed Matero University kind of trained operatives dosiers than what properly trained operatives collarate. Beware, Zambians are getting crafty at exploiting foreign money shredders. Supposedly, this outfeit has fallen for such commercial crooks. It’s time to reorganize your African desk to build credibility in your predictions.
Amose is just calling a spade a spade and not a spade a big spoon his right
This guy should have calmed down before putting pen to paper. This article is full of strange constructs and grammatical errors; add to that the fact that LT does not seem to have any backbone in editing stuff. Meantime, winning elections in Zambia is a toss up; it is like coin-betting. Actually Hillary Clinton beat Sanders in one of the contests on the flip of a coin. Go figure…
Agree with his analysis but his grammar is simply atrocious!
He is right
The Facts are undisputable and well catalogued although the packaging (languagage) is rather inconsistent. He gets an A-. waiing ton UPND to dispute the facts.
The opposition may have lost bye elections in the past as Amos may have reminded us but his approach is pedestrian as he seems oblivious to the shifting demographics in the country that will determine by and large the outcome of the 2016 polls.The following socio-economic factors will be the major catalysts for change;1.Economic stagnation and effects of hyper inflation on the prices of goods and services .2. Job losses and failure to provide a tangible solutions for addressing youth unemployment.3.Deep rooted corruption resulting in the resignation of Mrs Wandi .4.Shortages of mealie meal.5.Selective application of the POA by law enforcement.6.Poor agriculture policy.7.Uncontrolled contraction of loans resulting in the restoration of HIPC status on Zambia.8.Reculcitrant behaviour by ECZ…
@ dezrez. I think you are mising the point. The point is ECL will win big this time around with or without your major catalysts for change. Let me tell you one thing if people voted on tribal lines in 2015 what would stop the other tribes to copy the formula and apply amicably it logically for their benefit. job losses, shortages of mealie meal etc though real they will not make ECL lose. Advise go out there in Luapula, eastern Muchinga, Northern and convince them not to vote for their tribal cousin otherwise Edgar wins big in August, 2016
CONT..officials.9.Failure to provide leadership in addressing the ritual killings resulting in unprecendent xenophobic attacks on foreign nationals.10.PF cadre violence and unrestrained behaviour. These few points have made the people of Zambia very angry and they will vent their anger at the ballot box in August.
Scott is a despicable dull white man. He did not want ECL to win in 2015 but he won. The same will happen in AUGUST, 2016 when incumbency will be used to full advantage.
ZAMBIANS have seen real development under PRESIDENT LUNGU and not fake promises under regionalists and the delusional cartel of Scott Mmembe and Kabimba.
Scott and Sata brought that development – evil racists like you are trying to take credit
Is this Guy a PF spokesperson or Presidential spokesperson?
In Zambia everything is confused. He is a Chanda so he is both a PF spokesperson and a presidential spokesperson.
Comment: Here the crux of the matter is 1% the notorious pf claimed to have won the 2015 election which by now UPND has wiped it out by massive defection from pf to UPND. This trend must not be ignored at all. Only pf jackals can because they are desparate lot!
UPND CANT WIN IN ZAMBIA. WHERE WILL THEY GET THE VOTES FROM BEING A TRIBAL PARTY
Tribal remarks coming from state house. In Lusaka, CB, Eastern, Central and Northern people have resolved to vote for the opposition, There is so much untold misery never seen before in our country. We have never experienced war, but live as though we had one. Even climate change should not be an excuse but an advantage.
Stop blaming millers for high prices, fuel has remained high, electricity.. name them, yet dollar is dropping. We seem to have an invisible smart engine swallowing all our wealthy. Our money is gulped by a deep and huge hole.
Zambian let us rise to the cause. Vote for individuals not the party. Vote for reality,
Concerned citizen
How can a Bantustan based on 3 rural provinces win a national election of 10 provinces. Defies logic. If only ECL strongholds respond in a “Nega-Nega” way from 27% to 50% turn out, UPND will be walloped in the first round even if their infamous Nega-Nega formula is applied 100% turn out. That must be scary for them. The numbers are just against them. Sorry.
My friend UPND is no longer a tribal party. For your own information, your PF had a braii right there in Kabwata where it is believed to be a PF stronghold, but ask anyone how many people attended the function apart from PF drunken unruly youths who wanted free beer. This is a wake up call to PF and a sign that all is not well in PF.
@ chi something umwene….listen,Just southern province alone has registered 1 million voters swallowing Muchinga and Luapula.Western and North-western will neutralise Northern. Central will blunt eastern.Lusaka is 50/50.Copperbelt will determine the winner and this is what is happening on the CB…(1). 25000 miners have lost their jobs.(2) The promised $500m to be spent on infrastructure was a fib.(3) The prices of mealie meal in Mufulira,Chingola and Chililabombwe are around K120 and shortages are rampant.(4) PF cadre violence.(5) Fuel shortages.(6) Loss of contracts by Contractors.All these factors basically point to a predicted loss by the PF.
My Opinion: In 2015 many Zambians did not vote, all Tongas voted. PF was fighting the most stupid white man and KM. Lungu campaigned for only 2 weeks whereas H H campaigned for 3 months. Lungu at that time was not in government, but now he is in government and has resources available. The Kwacha is gaining- fake or genuine, We had enough rains- meaning no importation of maize. Lungu is Christian, H H is Mason. There are very few masons in Zambia but 85% are Christians and will support Lungu who called for national prayers which the mason failed to attend
We have said before that this report is fake, because 3 rural provinces indeed can not propel someone to presidency. Yes UPND will gunner a few urban votes but that will be wipped out by massive votes that will come from rural PF strong holds. UPND here is gropping in the dark, I can still see PF winning big time.
Amos,you should also have mentioned the 2011 prediction in which you as PF won….
add political vibe and vim to the subsequent completion and commisioning of the mongu – kalabo road and several projects in this part of zambia and you realise how simplified the argument will be for pf and how hard upnd has work to retrace their tracks. sounds like upnd may even lose what they have unless they’re able to quadrupple their game. a very tall order
He has a point. But I thought he was employed on merit but now I know he is a cadre.
I SAID IT THAT THOSE CHAPS HAVE BEEN WRONG ALL THE TIME. COME 08/2016 UPND CHAPS WILL BE RUNNING TO HIDE WHENEVER THEY HEAR THE INITIALS EIU.
In 2015 election in Lusaka province ecl beat hh by only 74000 votes while in CB ecl won by 140000.now for2016 Lus will ve 1100000 votes while CB 1058000 votes…i leave there for U to make your own conclusions/speculations
Pf has lost popularity in Lsk and C/B
Amos, your reasoning on this particular topic is factual but your grammar is appalling for a journalist of your sanding and former PAZA president.
Only those going to bed with full stomachs on PF stolen money can still vote for PF. I’m with the many poor Zambians begging for a better day.
Why should Zambians tolerate this racist moron for one more minute? Why?
EIU has not got its predictions right in the past it’s true – but why bring Scott into it? Does he work for EIU? Or is it because they are “also whites”? And PF govt is taling about dealing with xenophobia – why not start at State House
The State House spokes person is right. These opposition political parties especially the one led by the under five think they can win elections through the social media and phone in radio programs, they are in for rude shock on 11/8/2016. VIVA ECL
The opposition political parties or any other NGOS or bodies claiming to speak on behalf of Zambians that they want change should stop doing so because they have not consulted every Zambian instead they should speak for themselves and their families. A question is why should Zambians change a performing Government? Nakalya baleichusha fye. VIVA PF and ECL